Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[N12]

Regardless of how bearish you all might feel, I'm pretty confident Bitcoin will stay above 1 billion USD market cap.

[adamstgBit]

nice little buy a few seconds ago on finex

stamps reacting well to this little drop

 price is low, sentiment is down, NotLambchop is really good at trolling, ladies it might be time to face reality...

Reality of what ? 

348 support has just become resistance 

[jonoiv]

nice little buy a few seconds ago on finex

stamps reacting well to this little drop

 price is low, sentiment is down, NotLambchop is really good at trolling, ladies it might be time to face reality...

Reality of what ? 

348 support has just become resistance 

But dude.  on the 21st Nov you wrote

max leveraged short now?

And it rallied pretty hard. Watch this space...

[lyth0s]

Yes, I get that to a point, they can print a currency at will, and produce as much as they want.  But, I strongly disagree, that fiat is not backed by anything, the value will be reached by the market based on the creditworthiness of the country.  I'm not suggesting barclays bank has xxx pounds sterling, and can back it with xxx pounds of gold. However, the assets of the bank or the country for that matter should balance.  QE don't create more money, it's like having a large pizza and cutting it into 10 slices instead of 8 slices.  There may have been billions of extra £'s made out of thin air, but each pound almost overnight lost value.

Im not suggesting gold moves in tankers between states.  I am saying that the value of a currency is backed by the bank or country ability to produce assets in the form of gold if required.  

The fiat that is being issued by QE is being used to buy the worst of the worst junk from the banks that hold them to give them the appearance of financial health. All the dog-shit assets are being moved to the balance sheet of the CB's, and yes, it balances because they do not mark them to market and instead assume they will hold to maturity and be repaid or else sell at a later date to contract their balance sheets. The chances of either of those events happening are slim to none. Nobody is calling anyone on it because they are all playing the same game. The FED is now the biggest hedge fund in the world, leveraged about 80:1 (Lehmans was 40:1 when it went bust), and the assets that are leveraged are probably worthless (the Japanese may take this title soon if they have not done so already)

Nobody calls anybody on it because they are all playing the same game and if one domino falls, all the rest will follow. The emperor has no clothes and everyone in the know knows it. It's now just a confidence trick on Joe Public, who, like you (no offense) does not understand the dynamics at play.
The Euro is now largely backed by Greek, Spanish, Portuguese etc govt debt ... good luck with that. Bail out after bailout, they issue Euros and buy the distressed debt, kicking the can further and further down the road under the false assumption that it can go on forever. It won't. But then the music stops its going to get very ugly very fast. How long that will take, nobody knows. All it takes is one systemic shock. The alternative of course is a false flag event, or just plain war.

Gold has virtually nothing to do with it, except that CB's hold an increasingly small portion of their reserves in gold, and there is the an alternative to complete collapse - a complete revaluation of gold such that its value is so high that the balance sheets look respectable again. Not impossible, but unfortunately most western CB's have been flogging their gold to India and China for the last decade. Most of this takes the form of leasing, whereby ownership is transferred notionally and they never hand over the gold, the assumption being that they will if asked. That  assumption may be proven to be very wrong, and it is largely suspected that the same gold has been leased many times over. There are more 'calls' on gold than gold in the vaults. Again, nobody wants to play that card yet, because one failure to deliver gold will lead to a collapse of the pyramid. Why do you think Germany has been so quiet about the non-repatriation of the small portion of their gold they requested from the US? The US has said it will take 5 years to transfer what could be loaded onto a few cargo planes and transferred with ease. But they have not and will not. They have given them a pitiful amount so far.
So the game continues ... for now.

But the players are starting to hear the BTC mantra .. if you don't hold you PK's, you don't have Bitcoin, you have paper Bitcoin. Same goes for gold as confidence wanes and nerves get strained. So countries are becoming increasingly nervous about the gold that is declared on their balance sheets but held in vaults in other countries. As are some of their citizens. It's going to get messy. It's not if, it's when. This is already unfolding in several European countries.

And for what its worth the UK sold most of its Gold years ago (thanks Gordon, nice one  )  to bail out banks that were caught short and could not deliver on futures contracts. Part of the agreement was that they removed themselves from the gold market afterwards. I believe Rothschilds was one of the banks involved.

There is a lot of very interesting stuff out there and it all fits together far too neatly to be just dismissed as a 'conspiracy theory', though naturally that will be the first reaction of the sheeple.

Holding fiat does not give you any call on your CB's reserves whatsoever. In a free market currencies would adjust to reflect the quality of reserves and their ability to borrow in the bond markets but thats as far as it goes. And we don't have free markets ...

EDIT: So I guess you are right in a sense that people are starting to realise that about the only tangible asset on Gov's balance sheets is the negligible amount of gold left since moving form the gold standard. But to say that this is what determines a countries credit-worthiness is stretching it waaaay too far. It probably ought to, but right now it does not. See the problem ??

Sorry for dopplepost .. don't know what happened there !!

Excellent post.

[NotLambchop]

And I looked, and behold a pale horse: and his name that sat on him was Death, and Hell followed with him.
And power was given unto them over the fourth part of the earth, to kill with sword, and with hunger, and with death, and with the beasts of the earth.
  


Best of luck,


  
   ~Your Beneficent Reptilian Overlords

[adamstgBit]

nice little buy a few seconds ago on finex

stamps reacting well to this little drop

 price is low, sentiment is down, NotLambchop is really good at trolling, ladies it might be time to face reality...

Reality of what ? 

348 support has just become resistance 

But dude.  on the 21st Nov you wrote

max leveraged short now?

And it rallied pretty hard. Watch this space...

this time its different

[hmmmstrange]

Currency is backed by assets, at least my currency is (GBP).  our QE was backed by the purchase of assets.  When called to pay debts they are settled in gold.

Dude, England left the gold standard in 1931. That's 40 years before the USA.

The gold standard was the pegging of gold to currency.  Not the backing of currency with assets gold or otherwise.

It's all smoke and mirrors jonoiv - the BOE, ECB, and FED's assets are virtually worthless. The whole thing only continues because if the music stops, there are no chairs at all ... so everyone keeps standing and dancing and will do for as long as they can

The assets may be virtually worthless, but they are still worth more then the paper used to buy them.

[grappa_barricata]

[Davyd05]

I honestly feel we will slide with oil,

[JorgeStolfi]

can we have a special moment of silence for MTGOX and my bitcoins that are lost forever

The liquidation of MtGOX is still going on, and you should eventually get something back, perhaps by the end of 2015.  Maybe 20% of what you had.

The trustee appointed by the bankruptcy judge is still trying to collect the assets of the failed company, trying to decipher its accounting, and pondering how it will gather the claims of former clients.  The latter should happen in May 2015. Then thee trustee will have until September 2015 to validate the claims, and then it should distribute the assets proportionally to the claims.
 
It is not clear what amount each former client will be able to claim as his loss.  The account balances at the time of the collapse may be unusable, for several reasons, including the fact that the database that the trustee got has been found to be inconsistent.  Also, it is not clear whether it is leaglly possible for the trustee to distribute the remaining 220'000 bitcoins as bitcoins; he may have to auction them, and distribute the yen instead.

It seems that the usual procedure in bankruptcies of this kind (e.g., in the Madoff ponzi) is to ignore the account balances provided by the company, and instead consider how much money each client deposited, minus how much he has withdrawn.

If the MtGOX trustee chooses (or is required by law) to use this method, then bitcoin deposits and withdrawals would be converted to yen according to the BTC price at the time of the deposit or withdrawal. 

Obviously, the figure obtained by this method can be totally different from the client's final account balance.   Unfortunately the victims do not seem to realize that this is the most important question they shoudl ask the trustee.  Whether the refunds will be in BTC or JPY is irrelevant in comparison.

Clients would have to identify themselves in order to get refunds.  It is not known how many former clients will give up and fail to file a claim.  It is not known whether any of the accounts in the database are fake, with virtual balances, created only to get a slice of the bankruptcy refunds; or whether they belong to former management (which, by law, should not receive any proceeds from the liquidation).  So it is impossibe to say how much each client will receive in the end.

[marcus_of_augustus]

can we have a special moment of silence for MTGOX and my bitcoins that are lost forever

take your lumps and move on ... you trusted a third party and lost, boo-hoo.

Did you read the bitcoin white-paper, first line in the abstract spells it out, bitcoin is a technology to eliminate third-party trust ... and yet here you are crying on the bitcoin forum about being betrayed by a third party who you trusted with your bitcoins ... do people who get killed in a car for driving badly blame the car or the driver (or the road in your case)? Misusing a technology and blaming the technology is on the level of logic of monkeys and savages

[lyth0s]

Anyone ever read the Intelligent Investor by Graham (with additions from W. Buffet and Zweig)? I feel although most of us are very emotional investors.

I haven't read the whole book yet, but was wondering what you guys think about that. I'd bet a lot of people are selling in this bear market (obvious?) as an emotional response to market movement.

I understand that shorting can definitely make a profit in bear markets, but the actual sellers have to either be emotional or they lost confidence in bitcoins fundamentals?

Just thinking out loud here

[solex]

can we have a special moment of silence for MTGOX and my bitcoins that are lost forever



I'm always amazed by how fast we all just turned our heads from that debacle... there is no question in my mind this market HAS HAD TO FEEL THE IMPACT of MTGox, and we are feeling it... this will last a considerable amount of time.. you cant just compare 2009 / 2010 to today without taking a look at that and realising there will be an ongoing intangible impact when comparing today's data to historical data etc...

fucking Mark Karpelese!

It is sad about your loss, but for at least six months lots of us on bct were telling (yelling at...) people they should get their money off mtgox, from the time the fiat withdrawal problems first started.

[grappa_barricata]

OT, but maybe interesting for some of you: The Pirate Bay SUNK

[jonoiv]

this time its different

Why?  because of the auction ?

[only]

Is it, gentlemen?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

trolls and usual suspects seem to be out in force for the dump attempt below 350 ... someone's getting desperate to get in cheaper.

[phoenix1]

Is it, gentlemen?

Is this ??

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=md4cPHFBeiU&feature=youtu.be

I hope nanobrain and BitChick are not around !! 

[empowering]

Is it, gentlemen?

Looks a bit like Gentle-Ben, he was a bear y'know.