ASICMINER Speculation Thread

[Endlessa]

AM is now a hardware sales company at a time when the hardware they sell has been proven unprofitable.

that's complete bullshit.  AM has sold out of their hardware, which means the demand is still there.  

Profitable?  The margins on these devices are still very high (over 50%).

People can't act like the exchanges failing had nothing to do with the share price.  The share price took a massive hit after the BTCT announcement.  On the BitFunder announcement, it halved.

Hi there Senor Anger Management,

He wasn't talking profitable for AM he was talking about profitable for people buying them.  People buying them will not be making a profit even if they have them in hand.  This will keep them from continually buying them as there will be no funds for re-investing in hardware.  Additionally, currently they are selling out because there aren't any other product-in-hand hardware channels.  This window is rapidly closing and AM won't be viewed as an acceptable alternative in the future.

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[bitrich]

AM is now a hardware sales company at a time when the hardware they sell has been proven unprofitable.

that's complete bullshit.  AM has sold out of their hardware, which means the demand is still there.  

Profitable?  The margins on these devices are still very high (over 50%).

People can't act like the exchanges failing had nothing to do with the share price.  The share price took a massive hit after the BTCT announcement.  On the BitFunder announcement, it halved.

Hi there Senor Anger Management,

He wasn't talking profitable for AM he was talking about profitable for people buying them.  People buying them will not be making a profit even if they have them in hand.  This will keep them from continually buying them as there will be no funds for re-investing in hardware.  Additionally, currently they are selling out because there aren't any other product-in-hand hardware channels.  This window is rapidly closing and AM won't be viewed as an acceptable alternative in the future.

Thank you for clarifying, yes I meant profitable for buyers, and now most people know it. The margins on the devices could be 100% but if only 25% of them sell its a loss

[velacreations]

He wasn't talking profitable for AM he was talking about profitable for people buying them.  People buying them will not be making a profit even if they have them in hand.  This will keep them from continually buying them as there will be no funds for re-investing in hardware.  Additionally, currently they are selling out because there aren't any other product-in-hand hardware channels.  This window is rapidly closing and AM won't be viewed as an acceptable alternative in the future.

funny, cause I've heard that argument since they started selling the USB miners, and now, they've completely sold out.

So, I guess it didn't work like that.

[velacreations]

The margins on the devices could be 100% but if only 25% of them sell its a loss

yet, they've sold 100% of them...

[bitrich]

and what will they sell now? Would you buy a blade at this point? They need the next gen product if they want to compete from now on, I am not arguing that asicminer hasnt been profitable in the past, just saying the hardware they sell is no longer profitable and there are options that are. AM needs a new product and fast

[velacreations]

and what will they sell now?

They've got 500 TH of product coming...

Would you buy a blade at this point? They need the next gen product if they want to compete from now on, I am not arguing that asicminer hasnt been profitable in the past, just saying the hardware they sell is no longer profitable and there are options that are. AM needs a new product and fast

that's simply not true.

Would you buy a blade at .1 btc?
They will continue to reduce prices to compete with newer tech, that's the way it works.  And people will continue to buy AM product as long as they keep prices competitive.

[Endlessa]

The margins on the devices could be 100% but if only 25% of them sell its a loss

yet, they've sold 100% of them...

>< nobody is saying they haven't done that in the past. ..what were saying is in the future, they won't be the only in-hand products and the newer generation products do show to be profitable.  Aside from novelty, there will be very little value buying these products.  


AM just needs a new product line, eventually they will run out of impulse buyers and math impaired customers.

[Endlessa]

and what will they sell now?

They've got 500 TH of product coming...

Would you buy a blade at this point? They need the next gen product if they want to compete from now on, I am not arguing that asicminer hasnt been profitable in the past, just saying the hardware they sell is no longer profitable and there are options that are. AM needs a new product and fast

that's simply not true.

Would you buy a blade at .1 btc?
They will continue to reduce prices to compete with newer tech, that's the way it works.  And people will continue to buy AM product as long as they keep prices competitive.

My understanding based on previous discussions in the main thread is the 10 gh/s blades cost well more than .1 btc to produce.  Can you elaborate on why you feel they could be priced at .1 btc? or where your getting this estimate?

[velacreations]

My understanding based on previous discussions in the main thread is the 10 gh/s blades cost well more than .1 btc to produce.  Can you elaborate on why you feel they could be priced at .1 btc? or where your getting this estimate?

I just pulled out a number.  I don't recall their exact cost (I do believe it is below .3 btc), but we don't know the cost of the latest round of hardware (500 TH), yet.

The point is that people will continue to buy blades, if their prices continue to drop.  (price per gh is the driving factor in the current market)

EDIT:  looking back through my notes, Vycid had a number of $1.50/GH for current cost of production (for the last round of hardware).  If that number is correct (I have no reason to think otherwise), then the blades cost ~$15 (~.12 btc) to produce. 

The question then becomes, would you buy a blade for .25 btc or even .5 btc right now?  I think a lot of people would certainly say yes.

[bitrich]

and what will they sell now?

They've got 500 TH of product coming...

Would you buy a blade at this point? They need the next gen product if they want to compete from now on, I am not arguing that asicminer hasnt been profitable in the past, just saying the hardware they sell is no longer profitable and there are options that are. AM needs a new product and fast

that's simply not true.

Would you buy a blade at .1 btc?
They will continue to reduce prices to compete with newer tech, that's the way it works.  And people will continue to buy AM product as long as they keep prices competitive.

I doubt I would, because by the time blades are that cheap you still will never make a return. They're not selling them for 0.1 BTC so that comment has no value. So far every time the price decreases it's after the difficulty has increased by a larger factor than the decrease in price.

Look I'm not arguing that asic miner can't somehow turn things around in the future but for right now it's not looking good, and it's not looking good for btc securities in general either. The share price is slowly catching up to this fact.

Bottom line is blades and USB's will not turn this company around.

I may buy back in at some point but right now it's a losing battle, the share price will most likely continue to fall and I don't want to absorb the loss. You can argue that I am crazy and everything I say is BS but the share price continues to fall and it's not because AM is a highly profitable company that sells out faster than it can produce it's hardware.

[Endlessa]

and what will they sell now?

They've got 500 TH of product coming...

Would you buy a blade at this point? They need the next gen product if they want to compete from now on, I am not arguing that asicminer hasnt been profitable in the past, just saying the hardware they sell is no longer profitable and there are options that are. AM needs a new product and fast

that's simply not true.

Would you buy a blade at .1 btc?
They will continue to reduce prices to compete with newer tech, that's the way it works.  And people will continue to buy AM product as long as they keep prices competitive.

I doubt I would, because by the time blades are that cheap you still will never make a return. They're not selling them for 0.1 BTC so that comment has no value. So far every time the price decreases it's after the difficulty has increased by a larger factor than the decrease in price.

Look I'm not arguing that asic miner can't somehow turn things around in the future but for right now it's not looking good, and it's not looking good for btc securities in general either. The share price is slowly catching up to this fact.

Bottom line is blades and USB's will not turn this company around.

I may buy back in at some point but right now it's a losing battle, the share price will most likely continue to fall and I don't want to absorb the loss. You can argue that I am crazy and everything I say is BS but the share price continues to fall and it's not because AM is a highly profitable company that sells out faster than it can produce it's hardware.

this . . .

[velacreations]

the share price continues to fall and it's not because AM is a highly profitable company that sells out faster than it can produce it's hardware.

so, the closing exchanges have nothing to do with the share price, then?  The price on BF halved right after the announcement.

The current price takes the lower liquidity into consideration, plus the fact that AM is currently NOT SELLING HARDWARE.

The price will rise as the dividends rise.  If revenue doesn't increase, then share price won't, either.

[Lohoris]

Would you buy a blade at .1 btc?
They will continue to reduce prices to compete with newer tech, that's the way it works.  And people will continue to buy AM product as long as they keep prices competitive.

Selling itself is irrelevant.
What matters is how much total profit you get.
And if they sold blades with a mere .1 markup (assuming your .15 cost, .25 price), I doubt we would get nice dividends.

[velacreations]

Selling itself is irrelevant.
What matters is how much total profit you get.
And if they sold blades with a mere .1 markup (assuming your .15 cost, .25 price), I doubt we would get nice dividends.

I agree, but you would still be getting dividends.

last price of blades was considerably higher than .25 btc.

[bitrich]

the share price continues to fall and it's not because AM is a highly profitable company that sells out faster than it can produce it's hardware.

so, the closing exchanges have nothing to do with the share price, then?  The price on BF halved right after the announcement.

The current price takes the lower liquidity into consideration, plus the fact that AM is currently NOT SELLING HARDWARE.

The price will rise as the dividends rise.  If revenue doesn't increase, then share price won't, either.

The price has been steady falling since before any exchanges fell. Not saying it has nothing to do with it, I never said that at all. That's also a BIG problem.

Correct the price will rise as the divs rise and revenue increases. That's why it's falling because the opposite has happened consistently for too long. Their current pattern is clear. Also,

Havelock may be next to shut out US customers or close. That will happen, just a matter of how long until. I am out for now, as I said I may get back in later but not until more things are clear I can't afford to throw away money when the short-term outcome is so clearly a loss.

[bitrich]

Selling itself is irrelevant.
What matters is how much total profit you get.
And if they sold blades with a mere .1 markup (assuming your .15 cost, .25 price), I doubt we would get nice dividends.

I agree, but you would still be getting dividends.

last price of blades was considerably higher than .25 btc.

Last price I heard on blades was 3.5 BTC or some nonsense, and they hash at what 10G? 13G maybe? Your so much better off just keeping your bitcoin. Your basically trading your btc for a device that will probably not return the same amount. If the price of bitcoin goes up you still would have been better off holding your btc. Not to mention electricity costs, downtime, malfunctions, etc. Its like a pre-order for bitcoin lol

I got into all this because I believe in bitcoin, ironically I have traded alot of those bitcoin I value so much for shares of companies with bad or unrealistic business plans mainly because I wanted to support bitcoin business and economy. Making a profit is a bonus when it happens, but I can't just give my bitcoins away.

[weaknesswaran]

It doesn´t matter if you don´t get back what you payed in BTC.

The price is set by the market, and at 3.5 they sold like hotcakes.

Why charge less?

[EskimoBob]

It's painfully obvious, that mots of you guys are totally oblivious to simple concepts like profit margin, product cost etc.
Problem with BTC is that it's absurdly volatile compared to any fiat out there. Real world is not using BTC so AM had to sell your BTC to get fiat for all the expenses.
Looking at AM mining income, it keeps falling like a dead cat from a roof - dividends shrink at same speed. It actually hit the ground some time ago.
Same happened to sales figures because they had to make their stuff attractive to miners. As of now, there is nothing they can do because none of their equipment is worth even a penny.
Problem is, their sales minus cost of production and all the other related expense is not even close to what they are losing from soaring mining difficulty. At the same time, the equipment AM uses for mining has become obsolete and I am absolutely sure, it generates a loss.  
It is completely irrelevant, what they paid for the chips because if they have to put in 1.1 (power, maintenance etc) to  produce 1, they are generating a loss and eating away previous gains (value of the Co drops).
For some funny reason, people tend to think that the cost becomes magically 0 if you spent 5 and mined 5 with it.
No, your cost is still 5 and no matter what you do, it's remains at 5. Now, if you spend 1.1 and earned 1, you just made a loss of 0.1 no matter how many rigs you got running.

To be honest, I have no idea why anyone actually buys any AM products any more. For a souvenir? OK, fine by me. But then why not make those out of painted plastic with a blinking LED and be done with it (and probably make a profit too)

[weaknesswaran]

An Asic that consumes 7W/GHs still generates about 6 times the btc that it will cost to power it.
So there still a long way before you start mining at a loss. Long in BTC time of course  

[bitfair]

An Asic that consumes 7W/GHs still generates about 6 times the btc that it will cost to power it.
So there still a long way before you start mining at a loss. Long in BTC time of course  

By my count, at current difficulty and with a power cost of 0.06 USD/kWh, the cost of generating one BTC is about 3.80 USD. That means it earns around 36x the cost to power it.