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Author Topic: ASICMINER Speculation Thread  (Read 808627 times)
Lohoris
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October 12, 2013, 05:18:02 PM
 #3581

At the same time, the equipment AM uses for mining has become obsolete and I am absolutely sure, it generates a loss.
You are being unclear at best.

It certainly does not "generate" a loss: once you have your equipement in hand, it generates bitcoins at a much higher rate than the electricity you spend.

You might mean that "including its production price, it won't break even", and this might or might not be true, depending on when that equipment went online.
Also remember that producing it for themselves saves many costs, such as delivery, (partly) setup, middlemen, etc., so the amount they have to recoup with each piece of hardware is much lower than those of a random guy buying one.

(not that I think AM is in good shape, of course, just pointing out your post isn't accurate)

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Every time a block is mined, a certain amount of BTC (called the subsidy) is created out of thin air and given to the miner. The subsidy halves every four years and will reach 0 in about 130 years.
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October 12, 2013, 05:19:01 PM
 #3582

They have to turn those off by March 2014?

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
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October 12, 2013, 05:19:58 PM
 #3583

Sentiment here is extremely bearish at the moment.

Almost the mirror image of the top.
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October 12, 2013, 05:20:24 PM
 #3584

An Asic that consumes 7W/GHs still generates about 6 times the btc that it will cost to power it.
So there still a long way before you start mining at a loss. Long in BTC time of course  Wink


Well if asics were free that would make sense, but sense there is a relatively high cost to start mining with the asic you are at a loss until that cost is completely recouped. Regardless of btc value, because your trading your btc for the miner. Why is this so hard for people to understand? I guess if people did understand that easily the price would have fell a lot sooner   Wink
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October 12, 2013, 05:24:48 PM
 #3585

An Asic that consumes 7W/GHs still generates about 6 times the btc that it will cost to power it.
So there still a long way before you start mining at a loss. Long in BTC time of course  Wink


Well if asics were free that would make sense, but sense there is a relatively high cost to start mining with the asic you are at a loss until that cost is completely recouped. Regardless of btc value, because your trading your btc for the miner. Why is this so hard for people to understand? I guess if people did understand that easily the price would have fell a lot sooner   Wink

The miners they deployed made back the btc long long time ago.
And AM only pays the manufacturing costs, not the mentioned 3,5 BTC each blade.

The main problem is they can´t deploy more hashrate, because the total power consumption in
the datacenter is limited.
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October 12, 2013, 05:38:03 PM
 #3586

An Asic that consumes 7W/GHs still generates about 6 times the btc that it will cost to power it.
So there still a long way before you start mining at a loss. Long in BTC time of course  Wink


Well if asics were free that would make sense, but sense there is a relatively high cost to start mining with the asic you are at a loss until that cost is completely recouped. Regardless of btc value, because your trading your btc for the miner. Why is this so hard for people to understand? I guess if people did understand that easily the price would have fell a lot sooner   Wink

The miners they deployed made back the btc long long time ago.
And AM only pays the manufacturing costs, not the mentioned 3,5 BTC each blade.

The main problem is they can´t deploy more hashrate, because the total power consumption in
the datacenter is limited.

I'm not talking about they miners they deployed, yes AM has made profit mining, and now that profit is  being eaten away.

I understand AM doesnt pay 3.5 BTC for a blade, I mean the consumer. The consumer will not make the btc back that they spend on the hardware. So as more people learn that less and less will sell, unless the price drops enough to change that fact and in that case AM will lose profit. In which case share price still falls. Until they get some new chips faster than anyone else they will not be bouncing back. Could be a year. Most people would rather just wait and buy back in when they see things looking up. There has to be incentive for most people. Some will hold because they feel it's the right thing to do to stand by the company. Some can't afford to take the loss.

When havelock releases the news they are shutting out US customers or shutting down the price will drop sharply again. When we have a better way to exchange securities and AM has a new chip that may be a good time to buy, but the price could be a lot cheaper to start than it is now
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October 12, 2013, 06:49:02 PM
 #3587

An Asic that consumes 7W/GHs still generates about 6 times the btc that it will cost to power it.
So there still a long way before you start mining at a loss. Long in BTC time of course  Wink


Well if asics were free that would make sense, but sense there is a relatively high cost to start mining with the asic you are at a loss until that cost is completely recouped. Regardless of btc value, because your trading your btc for the miner. Why is this so hard for people to understand? I guess if people did understand that easily the price would have fell a lot sooner   Wink

The miners they deployed made back the btc long long time ago.
And AM only pays the manufacturing costs, not the mentioned 3,5 BTC each blade.

The main problem is they can´t deploy more hashrate, because the total power consumption in
the datacenter is limited.

I'm not talking about they miners they deployed, yes AM has made profit mining, and now that profit is  being eaten away.

I understand AM doesnt pay 3.5 BTC for a blade, I mean the consumer. The consumer will not make the btc back that they spend on the hardware. So as more people learn that less and less will sell, unless the price drops enough to change that fact and in that case AM will lose profit. In which case share price still falls. Until they get some new chips faster than anyone else they will not be bouncing back. Could be a year. Most people would rather just wait and buy back in when they see things looking up. There has to be incentive for most people. Some will hold because they feel it's the right thing to do to stand by the company. Some can't afford to take the loss.

When havelock releases the news they are shutting out US customers or shutting down the price will drop sharply again. When we have a better way to exchange securities and AM has a new chip that may be a good time to buy, but the price could be a lot cheaper to start than it is now


Blades are now for 2.75 and AM can go as low as 0.25, AFAIK.

No profit is being eaten away, all non-essential profit has been distributed as dividends, rest is being put forward to creation of 2nd and/or 3rd gen of chips/miners
tinus42
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October 12, 2013, 09:24:36 PM
 #3588

It doesn´t matter if you don´t get back what you payed in BTC.

The price is set by the market, and at 3.5 they sold like hotcakes.

Why charge less?

Exactly. It's like telling Apple to sell their iPads cheaper because they can be made at a fraction of the price.
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October 13, 2013, 10:25:32 AM
 #3589

From what I understand no more usb sticks will be produced after the last batch and the same will be for blades in a short time I think.
velacreations (OP)
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October 13, 2013, 02:06:00 PM
 #3590

From what I understand no more usb sticks will be produced after the last batch and the same will be for blades in a short time I think.
source?

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October 13, 2013, 02:57:22 PM
 #3591

From what I understand no more usb sticks will be produced after the last batch and the same will be for blades in a short time I think.
source?

BTC Guild:  http://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=home

Quote
Block Erupter Price Cuts / Blades Sold Out

USB Block Erupters have recently experienced another price cut, now at 0.12 BTC (free shipping within US). ASICMINER is stopping the production of new units, so remaining inventory is limited. ASICMINER Blades have now completely sold out as well.
EskimoBob
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October 13, 2013, 04:50:25 PM
 #3592

Good to know, that they managed to get rid of all this stuff before it becomes useless.

Historical Difficulty Increase (October 13, 2013)
30 Day    118 %
60 Day    273 %
90 Day    624 %

Ouch...

Maybe they can sell their own rigs too? Take the coin now and concentrate on next chip?
If difficulty keeps going up as it is, they will have a data center full of worthless junk.
Cleaning this up must cost something too... but probably not in china. Those idiots dump everything into a closest river. 

While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
velacreations (OP)
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October 13, 2013, 05:56:29 PM
 #3593

BTC Guild:  http://www.btcguild.com/index.php?page=home

Quote
Block Erupter Price Cuts / Blades Sold Out

USB Block Erupters have recently experienced another price cut, now at 0.12 BTC (free shipping within US). ASICMINER is stopping the production of new units, so remaining inventory is limited. ASICMINER Blades have now completely sold out as well.

Oh, I see.  Yes, they have stopped production of that generation, but are about to produce/release 500 TH of new product.  It may not be blades, though.

velacreations (OP)
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October 13, 2013, 05:58:00 PM
 #3594

Good to know, that they managed to get rid of all this stuff before it becomes useless.
 
blades are still worth several btc each, so not exactly "useless"

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October 13, 2013, 08:02:15 PM
 #3595

Good to know, that they managed to get rid of all this stuff before it becomes useless.
 
blades are still worth several btc each, so not exactly "useless"
You can't be serious, unless those are sold at <100 USD and S&H, toll, VAT etc is close to 0 and at your door step tomorrow. Not going to happen.
If you order now and receive your boards in Nov...  you have to pay less than 40 USD per board or you never make your money back.

Any ideas what was the total cost for those "blades"? 3 USD per Gh?

Have fun @ http://mining.thegenesisblock.com/   Wink


While reading what I wrote, use the most friendliest and relaxing voice in your head.
BTW, Things in BTC bubble universes are getting ugly....
velacreations (OP)
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October 14, 2013, 04:49:35 PM
 #3596

You can't be serious
I am serious.  That's what people were paying for them.

Any ideas what was the total cost for those "blades"? 3 USD per Gh?
initial batches were estimated around $1.50/GH. I don't know about the latest batch.

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October 15, 2013, 01:19:54 AM
 #3597

You're saying the initial blades only cost $15 to manufacture? Surely ASICMiner would have made a lot more, given their selling price.

You can't be serious
I am serious.  That's what people were paying for them.

Any ideas what was the total cost for those "blades"? 3 USD per Gh?
initial batches were estimated around $1.50/GH. I don't know about the latest batch.

velacreations (OP)
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October 15, 2013, 03:00:04 AM
 #3598

You're saying the initial blades only cost $15 to manufacture? Surely ASICMiner would have made a lot more, given their selling price.
well, they did make 10's of thousands of btc.  How much should they have made?

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October 15, 2013, 02:35:16 PM
 #3599

As many as humanly possible! They were (are) selling for more than they could ever mine.

You're saying the initial blades only cost $15 to manufacture? Surely ASICMiner would have made a lot more, given their selling price.
well, they did make 10's of thousands of btc.  How much should they have made?
velacreations (OP)
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October 15, 2013, 07:07:51 PM
 #3600

As many as humanly possible! They were (are) selling for more than they could ever mine.
I think that's what they did/are doing.

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