Just-Dice.com : now with added CLAMs : Play or Invest

[BayAreaCoins]

So you're still a top5 investor then. You just don't have your coins on site... Not sure how that negated my argument of weak barrier to entry for whales and small investors now having insignificant roles.

No... I was a top 5 investor and now I'm a piss ant .

Not arguing with you. Just telling you that leverage didn't help at least 1 top five investor via earning through dice play  I'm sure many other top 10s are in the same spot.

Some guy with 1000 can risk them like 100,000 if he has the BTC to buy another 1000 if he loses.

I think the leverage is better for the little guys due to the A: Thin Markets and B: Little easier to lose 1000 coins than 10,000.  Leverage at 100x = 2 max wins and gg.

[dooglus]

So with the current thin market problem and me having  a couple thousand CLAMS there really is no reason to invest using your site anymore is there? Unless claims thousands of more CLAMS than I really have I'll never see any of the profits with the pot this big. And all the big investors are protected because no on that wants to bet big can even enter considering thin market.

The #1 investor at the moment wasn't even on the site until a few days ago.

I guess I was misunderstanding how people saw the risks.

It seems it wasn't:
  "I value CLAM but don't want to store them all on a dice site",
it was:
  "I value BTC, don't trust CLAM's price not to crash, but will buy some CLAM if I can use leverage"

ie. he's more concerned about the currency risk than the CP risk. He can now dominate the JD bankroll without having to own 60% of all the CLAM in the world by taking a huge risk with the relatively small number of coins he bought. If he loses them, he can just buy the same amount again, possibly even from the guy who wins.

It appears that what has happened isn't that the relatively small investors we had before moved their coins offsite, but that the whale investors we never appealed to before now have a way in.

So obviously that sucks for the small investors. They've seen their share of the bankroll drop to a tenth of its previous level. And obviously it's good for the big investors, since they can now increase the size of their investment to the level they want it at.

I value the idea but I think this fucks every investor on your site except the top5. Granted I'm sure the top5 pay the bottom line so maybe it doesn't matter and they hold all the risk for you?

"The bottom line" is that I take 10% of player losses. It doesn't make any difference whether the bankroll was provided by 100 equally sized investments or one huge one. The player losses are presumably the same in both cases.

I used to have a decent percentage of the bankroll myself, and now I don't. So I can see where you're coming from. The change has fucked me too in that respect. My coins are still invested, and still staking. In a sense it's safer than before. If gordo wins 2k off the site, something like 70% of his winnings come directly from the biggest two investors. For the small investor JD has recently become a lot more like a staking pool and a lot less like a place to "be the casino". Be clear that staking rewards are allocated as before : in proportion to the size of your onsite investment only.

Edit: I just checked the stats. There are the individual and cumulative returns on an account with 0 offsite coins declared since shortly after launch:

Dec 12 2014     0.00%   100.00%
Dec 15 2014     3.64%   103.64%
Dec 22 2014     5.02%   108.85%
Dec 29 2014     2.09%   111.13%
Jan  5 2015     8.16%   120.20%
Jan 12 2015     5.28%   126.55%
Jan 19 2015     3.55%   131.04%

Jan 20 2015     0.72%   131.99%

So far this week the account has made 0.72% of its investment in profit, in a little under 2 days. That's less than before, but still significant.

Why don't you force players to sign a message from their cold storage addresses confirming they actually have the coins they claim to have. Then only count the lesser of the amount of coins that are in those address(es) or the amount they claim to have (they may not want to use all of their cold storage for the bankroll).

This would prevent people from lying about the amount of coins they have and would keep the bankroll more "honest"

1) it would probably just cause a market to appear for address signing services.
  "want to leverage at JD but don't have the offsite coins? no problem, we'll sign a message for you!"

2) I'm OK with the "lying". The Kelly criteria tells you what fraction of your "bankroll" to risk on each bet when you have a positive expection. There's no reason your "bankroll" has to all be converted into CLAM. Suppose I have a bankroll of 100 BTC and want to invest on JD. Should I convert my whole 100 BTC into 20,000 CLAM so I can deposit 2,000 of them to JD and be able to prove that I have 18,000 more offsite? That seems a silly requirement. I'm much more likely to convert 10 BTC into 2,000 CLAM, deposit it all to JD and "lie" about having 18,000 more offsite. If I lose the 2,000 onsite, maybe I'll convert another 10 BTC and repeat.

So basically 2 investors is risking BTC in the form of Clams with 100x leverage with possibly no care of utilizing CLAMS but to just have JD Tokens, while not allowing any liquidity for someone to come gamble because of Poloniex's horrible market depth.

CLAM is a Piece Of Shit coin but this shows the evidence a Sidechain pegged coin would work with this and Dooglus capping an Investment amount that he would feel comfortably HODLing.  

Dude, don't you work for a university? I can barely grasp what you're trying to say here.

None of this is specific to CLAM, or proof-of-stake. I know you're upset that JD doesn't use BTC any more but that's how it is now. Get over it, please.

"capping an Investment amount" : I don't want to artificially limit the bankroll size. I figure the market will cause it to limit itself

"feel comfortably HODLing" : Someone recently observed that JD now has a cold wallet again. I scratched the idea of a cold wallet, because CLAM is proof-of-stake, and people want their coins staking, not sitting idle on a piece of paper. Now you hold your own part of the site's "cold wallet". If you have 20k CLAM to invest, deposit 2k, declare the other 18k offsite, and hold them yourself. Leave enough for day-to-day operation on the site, and keep the rest safe. So the site is the "hot wallet" and your offsite coins are the "cold wallet". Now I can't steal the cold wallet because you hold it yourself. Maybe your part of the cold wallet is in BTC, or USD, or whatever you like.

[galbros]

Thanks for answering my earlier questions.  I really like the change to only display the onsite coins as the "bankroll."  I'm also glad that you decided to credit staking based on on-site coins versus claimed coins.

Thanks and good luck.

[12coins]

Chinese translation by 12coins,address:xNN2Zfft9wyQXuW1fdDNByg1WT3XDus2TE

问题
•   这是什么网站？
•   1%的赌场抽水意味着什么？
•   什么是CLAM（贝壳币）,我如何获取它？
•   我如何获取免费CLAM?
•   股份:我们只有1.0000 CLAM 股份，它意味着什么?
•   什么是线下投资？
•   我的CLAM钱包一直在同步，怎么加速它？
•   如何充值？
•   如何提现？
•   这个游戏怎么玩的？
•   什么是抽水？
•   什么是最大利润？
•   什么是运气值？
•   在bet列表里的颜色代表什么？
•   我可以用我账户的钱到SatoshiDice等网站玩吗？
•   为什么投注这么慢？
•   有自动投注吗？
•   我可以撤销吗？
•   我被要求用自己的地址签发信息，该怎么做？
•   如果我上瘾怎么办？
•   这个是个骗局吗？旁氏骗局？会破产吗？
•   给我看些网站历史上有意思的赌局好吗？
•   为什么有个家伙一直赢 5%场的赌局？
•   如何打赏你？
•   聊天室有个"dooglus"，他是真实身份吗？
•   聊天室命令有哪些？是IRC吗？
•   如何联系你?
________________________________________


答案

这是什么网站？
Just-Dice.com 这个网站是一个CLAM博彩网站,在这里你可以用你的CLAM进行快捷的游戏,且赌场抽水仅为1%.先选择一下多少赌注,然后选择“hi或lo”掷骰子并获得即时的结果:赢或输.还有个聊天室,在这里你可以和其它玩家互动.他们有时可能会试图说服你下注.：）
或者你可以投资在网站的资金池，并分享网站的利润（或亏损），从而可以帮助我们提供服务给下更大赌注的玩家。这就是为什么聊天室的部分玩家试图说服你下注的原因，你赌输了他们才能赢…

1%的赌场抽水意味着什么？
有些人对这个很困惑。他们问我们是如何提取这1%的，是每次赢之后，还是当他们试图提现时？回答是：都不是。赌场抽水是建立在赔付额里的。当你玩50%场比赛时，赢了，则你会收到你下注额的1.98倍奖金作为回报。如果没有赌场抽水，你会得到2倍的奖金。2中剩下的的0.02的部分就是赌场抽水。

什么是CLAM,我如何获取它？
CLAM是一个分布广泛的去中心化的股权证明类型的数字货币。你可以登录官网http://clamclient.com/ 和BTT发布帖https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=623147 查看相关介绍。
CLAM项目的发布是在2014年5月份。在5月份的早些时候，每个比特币、莱特币、狗狗币的活跃地址都可以获取免费的4.6个CLAM，那也是CLAM最初的分配途径。如果你有一个在5月份创建的比特币、莱特币、狗狗币钱包，你已经有一些CLAM了。更多细节请查看聊天栏的按钮。
如果你想要大量的CLAM，去Poloniex平台可以购买。

另外，还有一些水龙头可以领取少量的CLAM。
•   http://xdeathwing.com/faucetv2/
•   http://myfreeclams.com/
如果您发现这些水龙头失效了，或发现了新的水龙头，请一定不吝告诉我们。

我如何获取免费的CLAM？
2014年5月12号，我们保存了比特币、莱特币、狗狗币在区块链上的快照。那一刻所有的地址都被免费分配了4.60545574 个CLAM。这是初始分配，也是所有的CLAM的来源。这个举措是为了保证CLAM被尽量公平的发布，因为任何一个拥有以上三种币的人都自动的得到了免费的CLAM。
区块快照的具体信息：
   比特币区块 300377 (2014-05-12 12:48:17)
   莱特币区块 565693 (2014-05-12 13:06:31)
   狗狗币区块 218556 (2014-05-12 13:09:17)
为了获得你免费的CLAM，你需要使用有资格获取CLAM的那些比特币，莱特币，或狗狗币的私钥地址发起一起交易。事实上，如果你在5月份之前已经使用过这些钱包，你会有一个包含数十甚至数百地址wallet.dat文件（包括隐藏的改变的地址，你可能没有意识到），而所有这一切地址都可能有免费的CLAM绑定到它们身上。
最简单的收集CLAM的方法是确保你的钱包现在是空的，通过把钱包的余额全部转移到一个新的地址即可。然后你把wallet.dat文件导入到CLAM的官方客户端。它将帮你扫描这个老的wallet.dat文件并挖出所有的CLAM。
或者，您也可以使用这个网站的聊天栏的挖矿命令：
输入/dig获取简明指引.
输入/dig ADDRESS检查是否有免费的CLAM在给定的地址上，以及是否已经被申领。
输入/dig ADDRESS PRIVKEY申领给定地址上的CLAM并发送到Just-Dice的充值地址. PRIVKEY是在WIF或hex格式下的相关私钥
WIF格式下的Keys是51或52位字符长度，比特币是以5，K或L开头，莱特币是以6或T开头，狗狗币是以6或Q开头；hex格式下的keys是在0-9和A-F之间的64位字符组成。
任何你提供的私钥会被用来签发一个交易并广播到CLAM网络，然后它会被丢弃。私钥不是由Just-Dice记录的，但是你必须信任我们！最好只提供空的私钥，而且是你不打算再次使用的那种。

股份：我们设置股份为1.0000个CLAM-它意味着什么？
股权证明(POS)意味着仅需持有硬币就可以赚取奖励。股份所有获得的奖励会被添加到网站的资金池，供玩家在游戏中赢取。只有在线投资的部分才考虑把奖励进行分配。在周末进行分配前，还将被提取10%的佣金。
股息奖励不显示在网站的整体利润里，或在网站的利润率里，但他们却出现在每个投资者的利润统计里，这让我们可以把玩家期望的利润和网站的盈利做个对比。我们希望网站的利润趋于下注金额1%。

什么是线下投资？
为了让投资者减少交易对手风险，我们允许投资者可以投资到我们的资金池。
假设你有1000个币。你应把它们发送到充值地址并全部投资进去。你可以把1000个金币委托给Just-Dice ，承担相应的风险。或者，你可以只充值100个币并投资进去，然后告诉网站你还有900个币想要投资。你把这些币保存在你的个人钱包，但是他们也可以算作Just-Dice的资金池的一部分。你可以按照1000个币的标准分享你的盈利和亏损。如果网站运气很差，你的100个币将缩水到无法维持一个单一最大利润损失的话，你的900个币将被遗忘。你的投资将只剩下初始的100个币，这样你就不会陷入网站的债务。
请注意，网站设置的资金池（即现场加异地）整体最大利润额为0.5%。所以在上面的例子中如果你投入100个币，宣布900个“异地”的硬币，你的有效资金的是1000个硬币。所以你有0.5%，即5枚金币的筹码参与对赌。换句话说，你的风险是每次投注，你100个硬币的5%存在输掉的风险。这是一个相对有风险的行为，如果你不是真的总共有1000个硬币，能使你很快失去你的100个币。还应注意到，只有现场硬币才能有资格分享网站的股份奖励。
申报异地硬币，同正常情况下一样充值和投资，然后在聊天栏用/offsite命令，后面附上你异地的硬币数量。例如/offsite 900就是告诉网站“我有900个硬币，我要考虑异地投资”。 /offsite可以在24小时内用5次，你还可以使用 /offsite 0在任何时候以取消您的异地投资。如果你设置有2FA认证选项，/offsite命令将需要2FA代码。
你发现它有助于访问Doge-Dice，这是一个Just-Dice的纯游戏版本。它有/offsite
命令，每一个访问者都可以免费获取1000个筹码。可以试着投资一些，玩一下/offsite 命令看看它是如何工作的。如果你输入/offsite max 他将申报最大数量的异地硬币。当有人赢得一个大赌注的话，这可能会使你失去你投资硬币的一半。用Doge-Dice熟悉异地投资的特征可以有效防止一些失误导致的损失风险，尤其是对Just-Dice上的新特点来说。
想要使用异地投资，请先保证您已阅读此常见问题的答案，通过在聊天栏输入/enable_offsite_invest。

我的CLAM币钱包同步缓慢。可以加速它吗？
可以，下载 bootstrap.dat, 放到你CLAM钱包的 wallet.dat同一个文件夹里, 重启你的钱包。钱包将花费一小时左右把bootstrap文件导入，结束后将重命名成'bootstrap.dat.old'。你可以删除它。

如何进行充值？
在充值之前，请确信你的管辖地进行这种游戏行为是合法的。
然后，唯一要做的是，点击'deposit'充值按钮。它在右上方位置。这个是最经常被问到的问题。我猜应该是人们不相信它是一个按钮。你充值需要在CLAM网络上有十个确认，然后就可以到你的账户了。每一个确认大概需要1分钟。

如何提现？
在充值按钮'deposit' 边上有个'withdraw' 提现按钮。你需要等你充值的币达到足够的确认后才可以提现。需要的数量是你提现数的平方后整数部分的位数。所以31个CLAM的提现需要3个确认（31 * 31 = 961）32个则需要4个确认（32 * 32 = 1024）。
请注意，为安全起见，自动提现是有相关限额的。在提现超过限额时，您的请求将失败，但将记录。请根据本页面最下方提供的电子邮件地址进行提现数额和地址的确认。您的提款将被手动处理。这类问题通常需要几个小时内完成，但在特殊情况下需要24小时。感谢您的耐心等待，在这个问题上方便性和安全性是很难进行平衡的。

这个游戏是如何进行的？
开始：
•   选择一个chance to win
•   设置下注数额bet size
•   点击roll hi或roll lo取决于你认为骰子结果是高还是低（或者在键盘按键H或L）; 按钮上的黑色矩形表示键盘快捷键）
你每掷一次骰，你就会得到一个0-100的数字。
当你押低时，你需要摇小于你选择的数字。当押高时，则你需要摇到（100减去你选择的数字）或超过它。
以30%几率取胜为例，押低的话，低于30的数字就将赢，押高的话则需要70或大于70的数字。
或者，你也可以选择payout倍投和chance to win 将为您计算获胜几率.
还有，你可以选择profit设置你想要的赢取金额， bet size需要的投注额将为您计算好。

什么是赌场抽水？
赔率是这样设定的，抽水比率是1%.

什么是max profit最大利润？
这个max profit最大利润指示器告诉你赌场为每次摇注的风险准备了多少，它取决于资金池的大小。这个数量不会因为你的获胜几率改变而变化。它将根据资金池金额的扩增和缩水进行实时的调整。
例如，假设max profit最大利润是 500个CLAM。
你可以500个CLAM下2倍注（49.5%的几率赢取）以此来让你的资金加倍。
•   或者你可以用10个CLAM下51倍注(1.94%的几率赢取）来赢取510个CLAM，你的赢利也将是500个CLAM.
•   另一方面你也可以用49000个 CLAM下注 1.0102倍 (98% 的几率赢取)赢取 49500 个CLAM，你的赢利也是500CLAM.

什么是运气指数？
运气指数显示你赢的次数，与你应该赢的次数进行对比。例如，如果你玩了10次10%获胜几率的玩法，且赢了2次，你的运气指数将是200%，因为你已经赢了2倍于你应该赢的次数。押注数额大小不影响你的运气指数，所以，有可能你的运气指数低于100%，但是你的赢利仍旧很可观。
例如，假设你在玩一个50%获胜几率的游戏（也就是，1.98倍的赔率）你押注1个CLAM然后输了。你押了2个CLAM，又输了。你又加倍，输了4个CLAM，然后你押了8个CLAM，赢了。你已经玩了4次，只赢了一次。你的运气指数是50%，因为正常你应该赢2次，但是你的赢利却是正的。你失去了1+2+4 = 7 CLAM，然后赢了0.98*8 = 7.84 CLAM，净赢利0.84CLAM.

在押注列表里的颜色代表什么？
Profit赢利栏中的数字是:
•   玩家赢了就是绿色, 然后
•   输了就是红色.
Lucky运气栏里的数字:
•   玩家赢则是绿色,
•   如果他们下了相反的赌注 (hi对lo)如他们赢了的话呈现红色, 然后
•   不管他们选择的是哪个方向，如果他们都会赢，将呈现金褐色，还有
•   如果他们无论如何投注都没有办法赢，将呈现灰色.

我可以用的账户上的资金在SatoshiDice等网站玩吗？
为了尽可能的缩减在线的币数量，Just-Dice 使用了一个分享型热钱包。大多数的充值会立即被转移到离线钱包存储起来。所以你如果提现的话，那将是别人最近充值的资金。
鉴于此，如果你用Just-Dice的账户发送赌注到那些网站，任何奖金都是不可能被记入您的Just-Dice帐户的。

为什么开奖很慢？
服务器每秒只能处理一定量的开奖请求。有些人一直不停的用脚本程序下一些很小额的注。所以有时导致服务器响应延迟。对此，我们根据下注的金额制定了相应的延迟方案。这就减慢了微注机器人的下注速度，使真正的玩家下注速度加快。延迟如下：
•   下注 0.00000000 CLAM 延迟 3 秒
•   下注0.00000001 CLAM到0.00000009 CLAM延迟by 1秒
•   下注0.00000010 CLAM到0.00000099 CLAM延迟by 0.8秒
•   下注0.00000100 CLAM 到 0.00000999 CLAM延迟by 0.6秒
•   下注0.00001000 CLAM到0.00009999 CLAM延迟by 0.4秒
•   下注0.00010000 CLAM到0.00099999 CLAM延迟by 0.2秒
•   下注0.00100000 CLAM 或更多，没有延迟

有办法自动投注吗？
没有内置的机器人功能。有一个第三方的 google chrome addon 也许对你有帮助.但需要你自担风险;我们没有核查它的代码也不能保证他的安全性如何。

我可以退款吗？
所有的投注都是最终的结果，这个站点只抽少量的水。退款将使得站点的积极预期变成一个消极的。
Deb就此专门写了一个博客.

我被要求要有我的地址签名。我该怎么做？
为了证明你拥有这个账户，你有时会被要求用你充值的地址进行签发一个消息。你如何做，取决于你在用什么钱包：
•   如果你用的是clam-qt,去'接收（receive）' 界面,选择地址(address), 点击 '签发消息（sign message）',在中间输入信息,点击 'sign message', 然后复制/粘贴这个地址,这个消息,和这个签名.这里有个截图.

如果我上瘾了无法停止该怎么办？
和所有的赌博游戏一样，在线赌博可以让人上瘾并影响你的生活。如果你感觉损失的超过你的预期，或者你感觉自己无法控制地消耗了太多的时间或资金，请浏览以下站点，它将帮助你。
•   http://www.helpguide.org/mental/gambling_addiction.php赌瘾戒除帮助指引
•   http://www.ncpgambling.org/help-treatment/治疗方法
•   http://www.youthgambling.com/青少年戒赌
游戏的输赢几率（像Just-Dice）在连续两轮之间没有记忆，所以在连输的情况下增加你的赌注，对赢得下一轮的几率没有任何影响。
你也可以选择"Account（账户）"栏底部的设置，开启冷却期。“When rolling, delay my results by   seconds （下注时，延迟我的结果__秒。） "
你可以输入任意的秒数，但是它只能在下一次服务器重启前有效，那时你将需要重新输入你需要延迟的秒数。
还有，如果你是一个投资者，想要你的账户永久性的不参与赌博，发邮件（本篇结尾处）给我们，要求把该账户添加到不可参与赌博游戏列表即可。

这个网站是一个骗局或旁氏骗局吗？它会破产吗？
如果这个站点已经做了诸如拒绝付款给赢家的事情，那么每个人都应该已经知晓此事了。
这个游戏的公平性是被证明了的，这是网站上的关于“公平？”的概念。
我看来，有二个不明显的可能会欺骗玩家的手段：
•    (a) 我们可以在漏报投资金额。作为一个投资者，你可以根据每个星期日的更新情况检查是不是投资者的账户。每个人都可以检查，包括他们的投资额。
   
•   (b) 我们可以花费投资者的币。你可以根据网站的全体投资人基金地址：xJDCLAMZ9rQ11tMf7JUw1Zzvjm5ShkryrU来确认是否动用了这笔资金，（也许会等一会时间，因为这个地址太活跃了）。
我们签署了一个消息来证明这个地址是我们控制的：
      $ clamd verifymessage xJDCLAMZ9rQ11tMf7JUw1Zzvjm5ShkryrU \
            HFFhqxr1CdNGtHdxon5p8K2WvaA9LggehuGdfVAa2zZMVYevPPENNwmKs0uib6bb21YFVnzzieXHibi YNq4rnsE= \
            "This address is owned by Just-Dice.com"
      > > true
以上两点足以证明我们没有隐藏任何投资的资金，且我们控制着所有的投资的币。总之，这个网站不是那种运行部分准备金率的网站。如果你认为有任何可疑的问题，请告诉我们，我们将提供更进一步的证明。

给我看些网站历史上有意思的赌局好吗？
你不能这样问，你知道吗？但是我还是要告诉你，他们在这里：https://just-dice.com/milestones.htm

这家伙怎么一直在赢5%局？
“所有的赌注”标签并不能显示所有的赌注；有太多的赌注。它显示了所有的赌注的风险，赢得或失去，0.05CLAM或更多。（这个数字是有变化的）。如果3秒内没有赌注达到这一标准，那么下一个发生的赌注将被呈现出来，无论他的大小如何。所以当有人一直在5%的赔率押注0.01CLAM，他输掉的将不能呈现，因为他仅仅失去0.01CLAM,但是他赢的全部将呈现，因为他将赢得0.2CLAM。那也是为什么有时有人一直会在低赔率情况下显示一直赢的原因。
注意，同样的原因可以解释为何你有时看见别人一直在一个高倍率上输的现象；他们在高倍率上赢的金额太小所以显示不出来，而输的金额会足够大而显示出来。

我如何打赏你？
人们经常因为我运行这个站点而打赏我。我过去常常说“你不需要打赏我，我已经赚到一些我该得到的了”，但是我还是接受了一些打赏。我一直在考虑人们是否有必要打赏我，我没有办法对此作出判断，所以，你完全没义务打赏我，但是如果你想要打赏，我的地址是：198GobwwwucCiTGBYLXgYmfjPkAPVeWcBw。

聊天室有个"dooglus"，他是真实的吗？
通常的，"dooglus"在他的名字前有个（1），Deb则有个（2）。这些账户的密码是很长的随机字符串，很难记住。所以，当离开这所房子时，"dooglus"用账户（340），这个聊天的名字也是"dooglus"。那个账户没有管理员权限，只有有限的资金可用，所以它可以在不能完全信任的电脑上使用。这个密码是很长，但是足够人脑记住。如果你看见用户（340）声称自己是dooglus，他也许是。没有别的人可以把名字改成dooglus，尽管改名是被允许的。

聊天室命令有哪些？是IRC吗？
命令经常变动，但有一点不变，就是输入帮助命令/help 。不是IRC聊天，只是简单的网页聊天。

如何联系你们？
如果你要联系我们，请一定通过以下邮件： doog.justdice@gmail.com (如果你需要加密信息,我的GPG key是4BE6A010492A358E).
你将收到一封自动回复的信件，附有跟踪进度的链接。
dooglus（1）和Deb (2)经常在聊天里呆着，但并不能确保他们会发现你在说什么。所以，如果是重要的事情，请用以上的邮箱地址联系吧。
论坛上有二个帖子： 一个是对玩家的 https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=238613和 一个是对投资者的https://bitcointalk.org/?topic=242962.
在 Deb的博客http://just-dice.blogspot.ca/ 上评论，她经常在上面不时发布一些Just-Dice 上的时事。

[dooglus]

Here are some numbers that should give some insight into how things work now...

I made a list of the top ten investors some time yesterday at the 42k profit plateau, then again this morning after AK won a few thousand overnight. Here's a chart showing the recent loss:



The first thing I noticed is that only 6 yesterday's top 10 are still in the top 10. I removed the 4 others from the lists. The remaining 6 were in the same order in both lists. Here's yesterday's:

       total          onsite            offsite       mult

  2086428.61766205  20857.61570342  2065571.00195863 100.03
  1639597.56038806  16393.21066238  1623204.34972568 100.02
   253006.92557020   2527.94145829   250478.98411191 100.08
   223742.35877786   2236.52956500   221505.82921286 100.04
   205872.26329674   5872.26329674   200000.00000000  35.06
   166998.10506278  53542.10506278   113456.00000000   3.12

and here's this morning's:

       total          onsite            offsite       mult

  2129659.25656790  19680.58921974  2109978.66734816 108.21
  1638206.50316646  15002.15344078  1623204.34972568 109.20
   252792.26531992   2313.28120801   250478.98411191 109.28
   223552.53022617   2046.70101331   221505.82921286 109.23
   180721.06710460   5721.06710460   175000.00000000  31.59
   153559.10671185  53559.10671185   100000.00000000   2.87

Note that only the one with the lowest multiplier made a profit overnight. He made more from staking than he lost to AK. All the rest made losses. The 100x guys lost around 5% of their onsite amount, and the 30x guy lost around 2% of his. (Note also that I haven't checked what happened in the period between the two snapshots - it's possible some of them gambled, depsosited, withdrew, etc. - 3 of them changed their offsite amounts for sure).

So while it's true that the top investors take most of the profits, they also take most of the losses too, while the smaller ones with lower multipliers take a bigger share of the staking rewards.

[omahapoker]

congrats AK. i said your about to hit and i was correct.


1% predict fee does apply here

[ranlo]

//Dogelus

This data is immensely helpful in understanding the effects of big winners. It also shows that the risk level, on a "I'm going to lose everything" basis, is actually a lot smaller than I thought. For example, the winner overnight would have had to win the same total amount at least another 25-30x (without losing) to wipe out a 100x investor.

[Cyrax89721]

Thanks for the rundown Doog, that's exactly the kind of real-world numbers I've been looking for.

I ran a test myself overnight too to see where the numbers would land after the site loses or profits some.  I didn't expect AK to show up, but he ended up doing a great job of putting my experiment to the test.  

I invested 4 clams on my main account, and 4 clams on an alternate account at exactly the same time.  The main account was at 1x leveraged and the alternate at 100x leveraged.  I was puzzled at first after I noticed that my 1x investment was slowly profitting while the 100x investment was dropping along with the site profit.  I realized after a bit that the staking coins were the reason.  It looks like there's a crossover point where staking coins will make you more profit with lower investment leverages, even if the site profit is going down.  That's something I didn't expect.  

Anyways, in 8 hours with 4 clams at 1x I profitted .001 while 4 clams at 100x lost me .3 thanks to AK's incredible run.


Dooglus, I had a thought about investment options.  With the way I play, I like to keep my coins invested, and sporadically divest them to play for short bursts during the day, and then reinvest immediately after.  This worked fine before when 1x leveraged was the only option.  Now with the new options, I'd like to keep a consistent 5-10x leveraged.  The only caveat is the 24 hour limit that is providing a roadblock to my gambling spontaneity since I have to "/offsite 0" every time I want to do a quick divesting to play.  I'd like to avoid playing between two accounts, which can be a pain to manage thanks to cookies.  Is it a possibility to include an option that allows you to invest, say, 50 clams at 10x, while leaving another 50 at 1x for easy divesting?   I hope that makes sense.

[ranlo]

Thanks for the rundown Doog, that's exactly the kind of real-world numbers I've been looking for.

I ran a test myself overnight too to see where the numbers would land after the site loses or profits some.  I didn't expect AK to show up, but he ended up doing a great job of putting my experiment to the test. 

I invested 4 clams on my main account, and 4 clams on an alternate account at exactly the same time.  The main account was at 1x leveraged and the alternate at 100x leveraged.  I was puzzled at first after I noticed that my 1x investment was slowly profitting while the 100x investment was dropping along with the site profit.  I realized after a bit that the staking coins were the reason.  It looks like there's a crossover point where staking coins will make you more profit with lower investment leverages, even if the site profit is going down.  That's something I didn't expect. 

Anyways, in 8 hours with 4 clams at 1x I profitted .001 while 4 clams at 100x lost me .3 thanks to AK's incredible run.


Dooglus, I had a thought about investment options.  With the way I play, I like to keep my coins invested, and sporadically divest them to play for short bursts during the day, and then reinvest immediately after.  This worked fine before when 1x leveraged was the only option.  Now with the new options, I'd like to keep a consistent 5-10x leveraged.  The only caveat is the 24 hour limit that is providing a roadblock to my gambling spontaneity since I have to "/offsite 0" every time I want to do a quick divesting to play.  I'd like to avoid playing between two accounts, which can be a pain to manage thanks to cookies.  Is it a possibility to include an option that allows you to invest, say, 50 clams at 10x, while leaving another 50 at 1x for easy divesting?   I hope that makes sense.

Two separate accounts would work great for that. Just use the 1x account for all the gambling and leave the 10x sitting, .

[Cyrax89721]

//Dogelus

This data is immensely helpful in understanding the effects of big winners. It also shows that the risk level, on a "I'm going to lose everything" basis, is actually a lot smaller than I thought. For example, the winner overnight would have had to win the same total amount at least another 25-30x (without losing) to wipe out a 100x investor.

Looking strictly at the numbers as opposed to percentages, that top investor lost an equivalent of almost 6 BTC to AK, which I'm thinking is still a depressing amount to lose for any whale.  

[BayAreaCoins]

Looking strictly at the numbers as opposed to percentages, that top investor lost an equivalent of almost 6 BTC to AK, which I'm thinking is still a depressing amount to lose for any whale.  

I'm sure he will find someway to sleep tonight!  (sarcasm)

Probably just gamble that shit back.  Winning players leads to investor players.... that is when things get interesting!

[xoxoll]

If translation bounties still available, can I receive CLAM for https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg9867903#msg9867903

[BayAreaCoins]

If translation bounties still available, can I receive CLAM for https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg9867903#msg9867903

What language is that even?

[Stcgold]

If translation bounties still available, can I receive CLAM for https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg9867903#msg9867903

What language is that even?

Looks like ukraine

[picolo]

1000 CLAM gets you 3 CLAM/day from stacking.

The bankroll has been hit when the players won 5700 CLAM two days ago.

[xoxoll]

If translation bounties still available, can I receive CLAM for https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg9867903#msg9867903

What language is that even?

Sorry wrong link https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=238613.msg9867838#msg9867838
UA translation with the help of my wife.

[nicolaennio]

I have mixed feelings about the /offline idea. Surely it is innovative, but is it fair? People are allowed to lie about their offline stakes which basically means that if they lose their investment, the max bet will decrease dramatically, as they cannot fill up again with their non-existent coins.

Secondly, math tells us that 1% max bet is the fastest way to increase your profits. Now people are allowed to increase their risk (when lying) to more than 10% against their own interest (the fact that some JD investors aren't proficient in statistics was already clear though.)

In the end I find myself making a guesswork of how much I should declare offline in order to reach a 0.5% of risk that I want to afford.

[ranlo]

I have mixed feelings about the /offline idea. Surely it is innovative, but is it fair? People are allowed to lie about their offline stakes which basically means that if they lose their investment, the max bet will decrease dramatically, as they cannot fill up again with their non-existent coins.

Secondly, math tells us that 1% max bet is the fastest way to increase your profits. Now people are allowed to increase their risk (when lying) to more than 10% against their own interest (the fact that some JD investors aren't proficient in statistics was already clear though.)

In the end I find myself making a guesswork of how much I should declare offline in order to reach a 0.5% of risk that I want to afford.

Again, it's not lying. I have $100 sitting in my pocket. That's worth 0.5 BTC or 100 CLAM. I don't HAVE to hold it in CLAM *or* BTC. But if I want to, I can convert $100->BTC->CLAM->JD. That is in no way lying. It's just holding a different currency. That's what the entire system is all about.

And how is it "guesswork" to figure out how much you want to risk? Pretty simple formula that you can work out in your head within a second. Kind of funny that you bring up a lack of knowing statistics when you apparently have issues with basic mathematics, :p.

[dooglus]

I have mixed feelings about the /offline idea. Surely it is innovative, but is it fair? People are allowed to lie about their offline stakes which basically means that if they lose their investment, the max bet will decrease dramatically, as they cannot fill up again with their non-existent coins.

Who are you arguining that it is unfair to?

* the investor who is 'lying' can lose his coins pretty quickly - but he knows that going in, so that's not unfair

* the player who wins big sees that the max profit drops a lot after his win - but he just won big, so he's not complaining

* the investor won isn't lying sees his share of the bankroll diluted by 'lying' investors - but he gets to stay invested when the liar investors are forced out by a winning player, and gets a much bigger share if the winning player turns into a losing player after that

Secondly, math tells us that 1% max bet is the fastest way to increase your profits.

I think it tells us that risking 1% of your investment on every bet maximises the expected value of the logarithm of your bankroll - or something like that. To maximise the expected value of your bankroll when you have an edge you should risk everything on every roll shouldn't you? Your expected profit is 1% of the amount the player risks, so you want them to risk as much as possible against you. The reason we look to maximise the logarithm of the bankroll is that when you have 100 coins, losing 100 is catastrophic, but winning 100 isn't equal and opposite. 100 and 200 are similar amounts, one being only twice the other, but 100 is many times bigger than 0.

Now people are allowed to increase their risk (when lying) to more than 10% against their own interest (the fact that some JD investors aren't proficient in statistics was already clear though.)

In the end I find myself making a guesswork of how much I should declare offline in order to reach a 0.5% of risk that I want to afford.

We can't tell whether it's against their own interest or not, or whether they're lying, since we have no idea of the size of their whole bankroll. Most of it won't be CLAMs anyway.

If you want to risk 0.5% of your bankroll per roll, calculate the size of your bankroll, work out what that comes to in CLAMs, subtract your onsite investment size from that number, and that tells you how much you should declare to be '/offsite'. For this you need to decide what constitutes your bankroll. You'll also need to regularly monitor the situation - perhaps the price of CLAM changes, or the value of the non-CLAM part of your bankroll.

[nicolaennio]

* the investor won isn't lying sees his share of the bankroll diluted by 'lying' investors - but he gets to stay invested when the liar investors are forced out by a winning player, and gets a much bigger share if the winning player turns into a losing player after that

So if I do not want to lie on my bankroll and I do not want it to be diluted (assuming others are lying), I have to wait that a winning player 'calls' their bluff (?)

To maximise the expected value of your bankroll when you have an edge you should risk everything on every roll shouldn't you? Your expected profit is 1% of the amount the player risks, so you want them to risk as much as possible against you.

If you risk *everything* (as you are allowed to do by lying on your bankroll), you will incur in a variance which will slow down the rate at which your wealth grows. That's what Kelly's criterion is saying.

If you want to risk 0.5% of your bankroll per roll, calculate the size of your bankroll, work out what that comes to in CLAMs, subtract your onsite investment size from that number, and that tells you how much you should declare to be '/offsite'. For this you need to decide what constitutes your bankroll. You'll also need to regularly monitor the situation - perhaps the price of CLAM changes, or the value of the non-CLAM part of your bankroll.

This is the solution in any given moment. But I fear that someone over there is 'cheating' on their bankroll, putting a 10X multiplier where they shouldn't have. I also fear they can very quickly chicken out when a whale is coming and I am sleeping. And at that point I found myself with 5% risk.