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Marbit
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October 20, 2013, 06:28:37 PM |
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i wonder if we will continue to rocket up after this consolidation period..... getting nervous now!
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xypos
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October 20, 2013, 06:29:44 PM |
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We might come back to 150 before going to 200 (?)
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OleOle
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October 20, 2013, 09:34:07 PM |
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The upper bound for the value of 1 BTC in this year's USD is 1-5 million (given finite earth, etcetc,). Realistic positive long term scenario is 300k. If the whole crypto or BTC fails in some unforeseen way, it can be worth so little that it is impractical to trade.
Let's put the possibilities in log scale (price of BTC in current USD):
10^7 = 10 million. Total value of bitcoins would be on par with total value of the Earth. This is not possible and this scenario is therefore utopistic.
10^6 = 1 million. All bitcoins would be about as valuable as the M1 monetary stock of a top-notch fiat currency such as the USD. This is in the realm of possibility, but clearly the most positive scenario imaginable, and therefore unlikely.
10^5 = 100 000. Bitcoins would be more valuable than all the silver ever mined, but less valuable than all the gold, and much less valuable than many fiat currencies of today (total value about 1000 billion).
10^4 = 10 000. This will be reached ??
10^3 = 1000. This will be reached ??
10^2 = 100. This was reached 4/2013.
10^1 = 10. This was reached in 6/2011.
10^0 = 1. This was reached in 2/2011.
10^-1 = 0.1. Minimum value that bitcoin has ever traded in an exchange. At that time there were no actual uses for the currency.
10^-2 = 0.01. This would render all the bitcoin economy worth about 100,000 USD. As this value is spread between millions of users, nobody has a big enough stock to have any incentive to care about bitcoin, and the exchanges and eventually even the network would likely grind to a halt. This is therefore an impossible long term scenario. Altcoins die if they cannot overcome this barrier or fall through it.
The market is very volatile because market participants need to assess probabilities to scenarios, which are not close to each other in outcome. In contrast to stock market, where there are reasonable bounds as to what a certain stock's value might be, with bitcoin there are only absolute bounds, 8 orders of magnitude from each other. If the market would reach consensus that in 1% probability, bitcoin's value is 1 million (and 99% probability it is zero), the price would explode to the upside as any price short of $10000 per bitcoin is a bargain with positive expected value.
Bitcoin is not in a bubble but in a genuine price discovery phase. Not longer than a few hours ago, I told that I expect bitcoin to rise to 4 digits before next summer. My friend's guess was $15. Both are preparing accordingly.
Wanted to pull in this quote from a related thread, because I think that this analysis is right on the money. Nice analysis, thanks for pulling it from another thread. Yeah, I'd have to agree with that, bitcoin is in the 'early adoption' phase so there's plenty of room for upside.  |
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hope4me
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October 20, 2013, 09:46:25 PM |
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We might come back to 150 before going to 200 (?)
I doubt, the slowing increase of the price is very healthy, less chance of crash now I believe |
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btcton
Legendary
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Activity: 1288
Merit: 1007
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October 20, 2013, 10:08:08 PM |
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It's now only a matter of a few months...
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The signature campaign posters adding useless redundant fluff to their posts to reach their minimum word count are lowering my IQ.
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MAbtc
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October 20, 2013, 11:02:25 PM |
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What do you guys think of this latest rally? Are we going to blast right through $200 after this consolidation, or are we going to see dumps soon, bringing us back to pre-parabolic levels?
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majorX
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October 20, 2013, 11:06:30 PM |
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What do you guys think of this latest rally? Are we going to blast right through $200 after this consolidation, or are we going to see dumps soon, bringing us back to pre-parabolic levels?
There is another possibility, a bit stable price, at least for few weeks. I believe eighter this or quick rise followed by crash. |
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nthoangga
Member
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Activity: 107
Merit: 10
PLAYGAME.com
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October 21, 2013, 01:31:42 AM |
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If you count inflation then yes? In 1000 years it will hit 1000$. But if you compare current value i think true value of bit coin is 300$ and it will stuck there.
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Rassah
Legendary
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Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
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October 21, 2013, 01:55:29 AM |
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If you count inflation then yes? In 1000 years it will hit 1000$. But if you compare current value i think true value of bit coin is 300$ and it will stuck there.
Stuck there for how long? |
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johncarpe64
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October 21, 2013, 02:00:20 AM |
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Still waiting for that one day. Hopefully I didn't became greedy and sell of everything before it reach that level.
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OleOle
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October 21, 2013, 02:02:22 AM |
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If you count inflation then yes? In 1000 years it will hit 1000$. But if you compare current value i think true value of bit coin is 300$ and it will stuck there.
Stuck there for how long? It will be stuck there forever and ever  Muahahahahahahaha!!  |
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Galahad
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October 21, 2013, 08:57:16 AM |
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You can't really believe any answers on this forum as their are to many sock puppets. A guy who wants price to drop will tell you that Bitcoin is over and will probably be made illegal very soon. A guy with 1000 bitcoins will tell you that it will soon lead to interplanetary space travel, alien disclosure, talking animals, free chocolate and a 1 million USD price tag!
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xypos
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October 21, 2013, 01:52:33 PM |
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It does not matter what people says on the forum, but you can use some analysis and think by yourself
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Rassah
Legendary
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Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
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October 21, 2013, 05:23:31 PM |
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Still waiting for that one day. Hopefully I didn't became greedy and sell of everything before it reach that level.
Sell for what and why? Do you sell your USD/EUR for some other currency when your money goes up in value? |
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Rassah
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
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October 21, 2013, 05:27:17 PM |
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You can't really believe any answers on this forum as their are to many sock puppets. A guy who wants price to drop will tell you that Bitcoin is over and will probably be made illegal very soon. A guy with 1000 bitcoins will tell you that it will soon lead to interplanetary space travel, alien disclosure, talking animals, free chocolate and a 1 million USD price tag!
It does what it wants  |
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seafarer124
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October 21, 2013, 05:32:55 PM |
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You can't really believe any answers on this forum as their are to many sock puppets. A guy who wants price to drop will tell you that Bitcoin is over and will probably be made illegal very soon. A guy with 1000 bitcoins will tell you that it will soon lead to interplanetary space travel, alien disclosure, talking animals, free chocolate and a 1 million USD price tag!
It does what it wants Yeh, it eats , roots, shoots and leaves. |
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MAbtc
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October 21, 2013, 05:48:57 PM |
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What do you guys think of this latest rally? Are we going to blast right through $200 after this consolidation, or are we going to see dumps soon, bringing us back to pre-parabolic levels?
There is another possibility, a bit stable price, at least for few weeks. I believe eighter this or quick rise followed by crash. I don't know.... we went parabolic pretty quick there, so I think it is unlikely we stabilize anywhere for too long. I think we'll keep climbing until the bottom falls out of the Chinese speculation market -- that is what is driving us at this point. Little support otherwise, IMO. |
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Rassah
Legendary
Offline
Activity: 1680
Merit: 1035
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October 21, 2013, 06:26:44 PM |
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I don't know.... we went parabolic pretty quick there, so I think it is unlikely we stabilize anywhere for too long. I think we'll keep climbing until the bottom falls out of the Chinese speculation market -- that is what is driving us at this point. Little support otherwise, IMO.
I kinda feel the same way. If the price rise is due to speculation in China, there is no way that they, and everyone else, will stop buying right as Bitcoin reaches it's equilibrium stable price. We always overshoot. Hopefully, though, we'll get lucky, and Bitcoin will rise to $600 before crashing ALL THE WAY back down to $400, kinda like it usually does |
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FiatKiller
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October 21, 2013, 06:32:08 PM |
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You can't really believe any answers on this forum as their are to many sock puppets. A guy who wants price to drop will tell you that Bitcoin is over and will probably be made illegal very soon. A guy with 1000 bitcoins will tell you that it will soon lead to interplanetary space travel, alien disclosure, talking animals, free chocolate and a 1 million USD price tag!
hilarious, but true! |
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Swordsoffreedom
Legendary
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Activity: 2772
Merit: 1115
Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
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October 21, 2013, 09:37:59 PM |
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You can't really believe any answers on this forum as their are to many sock puppets. A guy who wants price to drop will tell you that Bitcoin is over and will probably be made illegal very soon. A guy with 1000 bitcoins will tell you that it will soon lead to interplanetary space travel, alien disclosure, talking animals, free chocolate and a 1 million USD price tag!
It does what it wants This picture is classic Xd |
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