Just-Dice.com : Invest in 1% House Edge Dice Game

[Peter R]

Hmm, going crazy here:

In[1285]:=

profits =
  Table[betAmount[[j]]* RotateRight[winOrLose, 0][[j]], {j, 1,
    Length[betAmount]}];

Select[profits, (# >= 5 10^8) &] // Length
Select[profits, (# <= -5 10^8) &] // Length
Select[profits, (# < 5 10^8 && # > 0) &] // Length
Select[profits, (# >= -5 10^8 && # <= 0) &] // Length

Out[1286]= 7185
Out[1287]= 7209
Out[1288]= 13893
Out[1289]= 14688

So, he won 7185 and lost 7209 of his 5 BTC and greater bets.

In[1290]:=

profits =
  Table[betAmount[[j]]* RotateRight[winOrLose, 2][[j]], {j, 1,
    Length[betAmount]}];

Select[profits, (# >= 5 10^8) &] // Length
Select[profits, (# <= -5 10^8) &] // Length
Select[profits, (# < 5 10^8 && # > 0) &] // Length
Select[profits, (# >= -5 10^8 && # <= 0) &] // Length

Out[1291]= 10347
Out[1292]= 4047
Out[1293]= 10731
Out[1294]= 17653

Now, after shifting by 2, it says he would have won 10347 and only lost 4047 of his 5 BTC and greater bets. 

What am I missing?  Excel is telling me the same thing.  Maybe there is a problem with the file...

Cheers,
Peter

[drawingthesun]

Just to get this straight, Peter you believe that Nakowa is leaving a trail to prove that he could have taken all the money and knows the server seed?

[Peter R]

If the nakowa2.txt file and my crunching is correct, what is the probability of 10347 successful bets and 4047 unsuccessful ones (looking at the 5 BTC and over bets after the shift [yeah, I know this is not completely fair but it shows how astronomically impossible the "cherry picking" argument is])?

In[1305]:=
n! / (k! (n - k)!) * p^k (1 - p)^(n - k) /. {n -> 10347 + 4047, k -> 10347, p -> 0.495}

Out[1305]= 4.79205803137647*10^-650

So more likely to brute force a private key.

Time for bed....

[Peter R]

Just to get this straight, Peter you believe that Nakowa is leaving a trail to prove that he could have taken all the money and knows the server seed?

Well, I do sort of feel like a detective in an up-and-coming Hollywood thriller based around bitcoin, proveably-fair gambling, silk road, and the mysterious whales of the BTC underworld.  Leaving the trail to prove that he could have taken it all would be a nice plot twist, don't you think? 

But, no, I actually think it is more likely that either the nakowa2.txt file is bad, or that I did something wrong (in both Mathematica and Excel).

[drawingthesun]

Just to get this straight, Peter you believe that Nakowa is leaving a trail to prove that he could have taken all the money and knows the server seed?

Well, I do sort of feel like a detective in an up-and-coming Hollywood thriller based around bitcoin, proveably-fair gambling, silk road, and the mysterious whales of the BTC underworld.  Leaving the trail to prove that he could have taken it all would be a nice plot twist, don't you think? 

But, no, I actually think it is more likely that either the nakowa2.txt file is bad, or that I did something wrong (in both Mathematica and Excel).

Haha. Well one thing's for sure, a whale winning lots of money is creating huge amounts of interesting discussion and I find it all very interesting.

[bittop100]

-5432B

[darkyoung]

-5432B

Maybe more in near future.

[cowbay]

If the nakowa2.txt file and my crunching is correct, what is the probability of 10347 successful bets and 4047 unsuccessful ones (looking at the 5 BTC and over bets after the shift [yeah, I know this is not completely fair but it shows how astronomically impossible the "cherry picking" argument is])?

In[1305]:=
n! / (k! (n - k)!) * p^k (1 - p)^(n - k) /. {n -> 10347 + 4047, k -> 10347, p -> 0.495}

Out[1305]= 4.79205803137647*10^-650

So more likely to brute force a private key.

Time for bed....

Appreciate the additional analysis and graph, perhaps I will look at the data myself.  Even if the shift 1 and shift 2 calculations are correct, I suspect that this has more to do about his betting strategy (sizing), although it is unclear without looking at the data how that could affect more than 1 way of shifting.

[dooglus]

He was just back for a few bets.  Here's a log:

2013-09-25 07:13:07 (153338) ACTION (debug, (none)) bitcoin account has 156 BTC
2013-09-25 07:16:37 (153338) bet #138779861: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:730125 profit:0.01000000 bal:156.01000000 n:1 percent tot:0.01000000
2013-09-25 07:16:38 (153338) bet #138779888: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:440477 profit:-0.01000000 bal:156.00000000 n:2 percent tot:0.00000000
2013-09-25 07:16:45 (153338) bet #138780001: 1 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:97297 profit:-1.00000000 bal:155.00000000 n:3 percent tot:-1.00000000
2013-09-25 07:16:48 (153338) bet #138780051: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:956786 profit:0.01000000 bal:155.01000000 n:4 percent tot:-0.99000000
2013-09-25 07:16:50 (153338) bet #138780084: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:576539 profit:0.01000000 bal:155.02000000 n:5 percent tot:-0.98000000
2013-09-25 07:16:51 (153338) bet #138780109: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:704456 profit:0.01000000 bal:155.03000000 n:6 percent tot:-0.97000000
2013-09-25 07:16:53 (153338) bet #138780139: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:999234 profit:0.01000000 bal:155.04000000 n:7 percent tot:-0.96000000
2013-09-25 07:16:54 (153338) bet #138780158: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:177227 profit:-0.01000000 bal:155.03000000 n:8 percent tot:-0.97000000
2013-09-25 07:16:57 (153338) bet #138780202: 2 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:160445 profit:-2.00000000 bal:153.03000000 n:9 percent tot:-2.97000000
2013-09-25 07:16:58 (153338) bet #138780231: 2 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:284797 profit:-2.00000000 bal:151.03000000 n:10 percent tot:-4.97000000
2013-09-25 07:17:00 (153338) bet #138780263: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:20337 profit:-0.01000000 bal:151.02000000 n:11 percent tot:-4.98000000
2013-09-25 07:17:02 (153338) bet #138780295: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:370709 profit:-0.01000000 bal:151.01000000 n:12 percent tot:-4.99000000
2013-09-25 07:17:03 (153338) bet #138780322: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:747808 profit:0.01000000 bal:151.02000000 n:13 percent tot:-4.98000000
2013-09-25 07:17:06 (153338) bet #138780370: 5 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:849066 profit:5.00000000 bal:156.02000000 n:14 percent tot:0.02000000
2013-09-25 07:17:08 (153338) bet #138780395: 5 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:538539 profit:5.00000000 bal:161.02000000 n:15 percent tot:5.02000000
2013-09-25 07:17:09 (153338) bet #138780424: 5 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:428076 profit:-5.00000000 bal:156.02000000 n:16 percent tot:0.02000000
2013-09-25 07:17:13 (153338) bet #138780480: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:199055 profit:-0.01000000 bal:156.01000000 n:17 percent tot:0.01000000
2013-09-25 07:17:17 (153338) bet #138780562: 2 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:660930 profit:2.00000000 bal:158.01000000 n:18 percent tot:2.01000000
2013-09-25 07:17:19 (153338) bet #138780608: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:200987 profit:-0.01000000 bal:158.00000000 n:19 percent tot:2.00000000
2013-09-25 07:17:22 (153338) bet #138780647: 2 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:374795 profit:-2.00000000 bal:156.00000000 n:20 percent tot:0.00000000
2013-09-25 07:17:23 (153338) bet #138780684: 2 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:148276 profit:-2.00000000 bal:154.00000000 n:21 percent tot:-2.00000000
2013-09-25 07:17:34 (153338) bet #138780732: 4 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:537520 profit:4.00000000 bal:158.00000000 n:22 percent tot:2.00000000
2013-09-25 07:17:36 (153338) bet #138780781: 22 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:8773 profit:-22.00000000 bal:136.00000000 n:23 percent tot:-20.00000000
2013-09-25 07:17:38 (153338) bet #138780816: 22 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:66423 profit:-22.00000000 bal:114.00000000 n:24 percent tot:-42.00000000
2013-09-25 07:17:40 (153338) bet #138780853: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:835164 profit:0.01000000 bal:114.01000000 n:25 percent tot:-41.99000000
2013-09-25 07:17:43 (153338) bet #138780907: 11 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:595477 profit:11.00000000 bal:125.01000000 n:26 percent tot:-30.99000000
2013-09-25 07:17:45 (153338) bet #138780938: 11 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:428560 profit:-11.00000000 bal:114.01000000 n:27 percent tot:-41.99000000
2013-09-25 07:17:49 (153338) bet #138781009: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:779601 profit:20.00000000 bal:134.01000000 n:28 percent tot:-21.99000000
2013-09-25 07:17:51 (153338) bet #138781049: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:680971 profit:0.01000000 bal:134.02000000 n:29 percent tot:-21.98000000
2013-09-25 07:17:54 (153338) bet #138781107: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:891714 profit:20.00000000 bal:154.02000000 n:30 percent tot:-1.98000000
2013-09-25 07:17:56 (153338) bet #138781149: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:284369 profit:-0.01000000 bal:154.01000000 n:31 percent tot:-1.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:00 (153338) bet #138781217: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:389234 profit:-10.00000000 bal:144.01000000 n:32 percent tot:-11.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:01 (153338) bet #138781250: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:886353 profit:10.00000000 bal:154.01000000 n:33 percent tot:-1.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:04 (153338) bet #138781299: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:376813 profit:-0.01000000 bal:154.00000000 n:34 percent tot:-2.00000000
2013-09-25 07:18:11 (153338) bet #138781430: 2 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:419844 profit:-2.00000000 bal:152.00000000 n:35 percent tot:-4.00000000
2013-09-25 07:18:14 (153338) bet #138781492: 4 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:276323 profit:-4.00000000 bal:148.00000000 n:36 percent tot:-8.00000000
2013-09-25 07:18:16 (153338) bet #138781547: 16 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:235697 profit:-16.00000000 bal:132.00000000 n:37 percent tot:-24.00000000
2013-09-25 07:18:18 (153338) bet #138781589: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:65931 profit:-0.01000000 bal:131.99000000 n:38 percent tot:-24.01000000
2013-09-25 07:18:21 (153338) bet #138781627: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:589465 profit:0.01000000 bal:132.00000000 n:39 percent tot:-24.00000000
2013-09-25 07:18:22 (153338) bet #138781653: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:759188 profit:0.01000000 bal:132.01000000 n:40 percent tot:-23.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:25 (153338) bet #138781703: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:898078 profit:10.00000000 bal:142.01000000 n:41 percent tot:-13.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:26 (153338) bet #138781724: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:61384 profit:-10.00000000 bal:132.01000000 n:42 percent tot:-23.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:28 (153338) bet #138781758: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:806581 profit:20.00000000 bal:152.01000000 n:43 percent tot:-3.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:32 (153338) bet #138781815: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:610116 profit:0.01000000 bal:152.02000000 n:44 percent tot:-3.98000000
2013-09-25 07:18:34 (153338) bet #138781852: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:173468 profit:-10.00000000 bal:142.02000000 n:45 percent tot:-13.98000000
2013-09-25 07:18:36 (153338) bet #138781887: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:435345 profit:-20.00000000 bal:122.02000000 n:46 percent tot:-33.98000000
2013-09-25 07:18:38 (153338) bet #138781922: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:181978 profit:-0.01000000 bal:122.01000000 n:47 percent tot:-33.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:40 (153338) bet #138781961: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:392575 profit:-0.01000000 bal:122.00000000 n:48 percent tot:-34.00000000
2013-09-25 07:18:42 (153338) bet #138781989: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:398295 profit:-0.01000000 bal:121.99000000 n:49 percent tot:-34.01000000
2013-09-25 07:18:43 (153338) bet #138782015: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:725918 profit:0.01000000 bal:122.00000000 n:50 percent tot:-34.00000000
2013-09-25 07:18:44 (153338) bet #138782036: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:701350 profit:0.01000000 bal:122.01000000 n:51 percent tot:-33.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:47 (153338) bet #138782076: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:999460 profit:10.00000000 bal:132.01000000 n:52 percent tot:-23.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:48 (153338) bet #138782104: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:240357 profit:-10.00000000 bal:122.01000000 n:53 percent tot:-33.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:50 (153338) bet #138782136: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:509167 profit:20.00000000 bal:142.01000000 n:54 percent tot:-13.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:52 (153338) bet #138782177: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:610856 profit:10.00000000 bal:152.01000000 n:55 percent tot:-3.99000000
2013-09-25 07:18:54 (153338) bet #138782210: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:930998 profit:10.00000000 bal:162.01000000 n:56 percent tot:6.01000000
2013-09-25 07:18:56 (153338) bet #138782236: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:856790 profit:10.00000000 bal:172.01000000 n:57 percent tot:16.01000000
2013-09-25 07:18:57 (153338) bet #138782262: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:720326 profit:10.00000000 bal:182.01000000 n:58 percent tot:26.01000000
2013-09-25 07:18:59 (153338) bet #138782284: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:920076 profit:10.00000000 bal:192.01000000 n:59 percent tot:36.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:00 (153338) bet #138782306: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:655792 profit:10.00000000 bal:202.01000000 n:60 percent tot:46.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:01 (153338) bet #138782334: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:536973 profit:10.00000000 bal:212.01000000 n:61 percent tot:56.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:02 (153338) bet #138782354: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:78416 profit:-10.00000000 bal:202.01000000 n:62 percent tot:46.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:04 (153338) bet #138782389: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:463917 profit:-20.00000000 bal:182.01000000 n:63 percent tot:26.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:07 (153338) bet #138782429: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:388229 profit:-0.01000000 bal:182.00000000 n:64 percent tot:26.00000000
2013-09-25 07:19:08 (153338) bet #138782456: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:665307 profit:0.01000000 bal:182.01000000 n:65 percent tot:26.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:11 (153338) bet #138782511: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:5428 profit:-10.00000000 bal:172.01000000 n:66 percent tot:16.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:13 (153338) bet #138782552: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:106580 profit:-20.00000000 bal:152.01000000 n:67 percent tot:-3.99000000
2013-09-25 07:19:15 (153338) bet #138782584: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:940731 profit:0.01000000 bal:152.02000000 n:68 percent tot:-3.98000000
2013-09-25 07:19:17 (153338) bet #138782629: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:57474 profit:-20.00000000 bal:132.02000000 n:69 percent tot:-23.98000000
2013-09-25 07:19:19 (153338) bet #138782662: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:280463 profit:-20.00000000 bal:112.02000000 n:70 percent tot:-43.98000000
2013-09-25 07:19:20 (153338) bet #138782688: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:782243 profit:0.01000000 bal:112.03000000 n:71 percent tot:-43.97000000
2013-09-25 07:19:22 (153338) bet #138782714: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:294758 profit:-0.01000000 bal:112.02000000 n:72 percent tot:-43.98000000
2013-09-25 07:19:24 (153338) bet #138782751: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:84665 profit:-20.00000000 bal:92.02000000 n:73 percent tot:-63.98000000
2013-09-25 07:19:25 (153338) bet #138782780: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:115043 profit:-20.00000000 bal:72.02000000 n:74 percent tot:-83.98000000
2013-09-25 07:19:27 (153338) bet #138782816: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:64305 profit:-0.01000000 bal:72.01000000 n:75 percent tot:-83.99000000
2013-09-25 07:19:29 (153338) bet #138782849: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:399417 profit:-0.01000000 bal:72.00000000 n:76 percent tot:-84.00000000
2013-09-25 07:19:31 (153338) bet #138782874: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:357465 profit:-0.01000000 bal:71.99000000 n:77 percent tot:-84.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:32 (153338) bet #138782900: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:432573 profit:-0.01000000 bal:71.98000000 n:78 percent tot:-84.02000000
2013-09-25 07:19:34 (153338) bet #138782926: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:349229 profit:-0.01000000 bal:71.97000000 n:79 percent tot:-84.03000000
2013-09-25 07:19:35 (153338) bet #138782950: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:517968 profit:0.01000000 bal:71.98000000 n:80 percent tot:-84.02000000
2013-09-25 07:19:37 (153338) bet #138782971: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:774753 profit:0.01000000 bal:71.99000000 n:81 percent tot:-84.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:39 (153338) bet #138783019: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:950837 profit:20.00000000 bal:91.99000000 n:82 percent tot:-64.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:48 (153338) bet #138783049: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:998913 profit:20.00000000 bal:111.99000000 n:83 percent tot:-44.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:50 (153338) bet #138783072: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:391748 profit:-20.00000000 bal:91.99000000 n:84 percent tot:-64.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:54 (153338) bet #138783130: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:519248 profit:10.00000000 bal:101.99000000 n:85 percent tot:-54.01000000
2013-09-25 07:19:56 (153338) bet #138783175: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:464564 profit:-0.01000000 bal:101.98000000 n:86 percent tot:-54.02000000
2013-09-25 07:20:07 (153338) bet #138783223: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:569097 profit:20.00000000 bal:121.98000000 n:87 percent tot:-34.02000000
2013-09-25 07:20:09 (153338) bet #138783264: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:323394 profit:-0.01000000 bal:121.97000000 n:88 percent tot:-34.03000000
2013-09-25 07:20:13 (153338) bet #138783326: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:41523 profit:-10.00000000 bal:111.97000000 n:89 percent tot:-44.03000000
2013-09-25 07:20:16 (153338) bet #138783376: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:988659 profit:20.00000000 bal:131.97000000 n:90 percent tot:-24.03000000
2013-09-25 07:20:24 (153338) bet #138783406: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:462370 profit:-0.01000000 bal:131.96000000 n:91 percent tot:-24.04000000
2013-09-25 07:20:34 (153338) bet #138783445: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:716078 profit:10.00000000 bal:141.96000000 n:92 percent tot:-14.04000000
2013-09-25 07:20:36 (153338) bet #138783481: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:821194 profit:0.01000000 bal:141.97000000 n:93 percent tot:-14.03000000
2013-09-25 07:20:39 (153338) bet #138783526: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:161171 profit:-10.00000000 bal:131.97000000 n:94 percent tot:-24.03000000
2013-09-25 07:20:41 (153338) bet #138783556: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:129962 profit:-20.00000000 bal:111.97000000 n:95 percent tot:-44.03000000
2013-09-25 07:20:43 (153338) bet #138783590: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:80410 profit:-0.01000000 bal:111.96000000 n:96 percent tot:-44.04000000
2013-09-25 07:20:45 (153338) bet #138783621: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:526579 profit:0.01000000 bal:111.97000000 n:97 percent tot:-44.03000000
2013-09-25 07:20:54 (153338) bet #138783652: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:850638 profit:0.01000000 bal:111.98000000 n:98 percent tot:-44.02000000
2013-09-25 07:21:04 (153338) bet #138783708: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:315540 profit:-0.01000000 bal:111.97000000 n:99 percent tot:-44.03000000
2013-09-25 07:22:06 (153338) bet #138784650: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:318324 profit:-0.01000000 bal:111.96000000 n:100 percent tot:-44.04000000
2013-09-25 07:22:08 (153338) bet #138784689: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:322304 profit:-0.01000000 bal:111.95000000 n:101 percent tot:-44.05000000
2013-09-25 07:22:10 (153338) bet #138784719: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:776754 profit:0.01000000 bal:111.96000000 n:102 percent tot:-44.04000000
2013-09-25 07:22:14 (153338) bet #138784800: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:626072 profit:0.01000000 bal:111.97000000 n:103 percent tot:-44.03000000
2013-09-25 07:22:16 (153338) bet #138784827: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:132161 profit:-0.01000000 bal:111.96000000 n:104 percent tot:-44.04000000
2013-09-25 07:22:18 (153338) bet #138784858: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:316610 profit:-0.01000000 bal:111.95000000 n:105 percent tot:-44.05000000
2013-09-25 07:22:19 (153338) bet #138784893: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:466023 profit:-0.01000000 bal:111.94000000 n:106 percent tot:-44.06000000
2013-09-25 07:22:22 (153338) bet #138784951: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:859788 profit:0.01000000 bal:111.95000000 n:107 percent tot:-44.05000000
2013-09-25 07:22:24 (153338) bet #138784977: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:263062 profit:-0.01000000 bal:111.94000000 n:108 percent tot:-44.06000000
2013-09-25 07:22:29 (153338) bet #138785079: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:537035 profit:10.00000000 bal:121.94000000 n:109 percent tot:-34.06000000
2013-09-25 07:22:31 (153338) bet #138785120: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:688558 profit:0.01000000 bal:121.95000000 n:110 percent tot:-34.05000000
2013-09-25 07:22:34 (153338) bet #138785162: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:727996 profit:10.00000000 bal:131.95000000 n:111 percent tot:-24.05000000
2013-09-25 07:22:35 (153338) bet #138785183: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:81150 profit:-10.00000000 bal:121.95000000 n:112 percent tot:-34.05000000
2013-09-25 07:22:37 (153338) bet #138785224: 5 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:628665 profit:5.00000000 bal:126.95000000 n:113 percent tot:-29.05000000
2013-09-25 07:22:41 (153338) bet #138785294: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:99466 profit:-0.01000000 bal:126.94000000 n:114 percent tot:-29.06000000
2013-09-25 07:22:43 (153338) bet #138785332: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:850939 profit:20.00000000 bal:146.94000000 n:115 percent tot:-9.06000000
2013-09-25 07:22:44 (153338) bet #138785364: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:35449 profit:-0.01000000 bal:146.93000000 n:116 percent tot:-9.07000000
2013-09-25 07:22:47 (153338) bet #138785406: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:316093 profit:-10.00000000 bal:136.93000000 n:117 percent tot:-19.07000000
2013-09-25 07:22:49 (153338) bet #138785452: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:136561 profit:-20.00000000 bal:116.93000000 n:118 percent tot:-39.07000000
2013-09-25 07:22:51 (153338) bet #138785494: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:702053 profit:0.01000000 bal:116.94000000 n:119 percent tot:-39.06000000
2013-09-25 07:22:53 (153338) bet #138785521: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:75920 profit:-0.01000000 bal:116.93000000 n:120 percent tot:-39.07000000
2013-09-25 07:22:56 (153338) bet #138785577: 40 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:511983 profit:40.00000000 bal:156.93000000 n:121 percent tot:0.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:05 (153338) bet #138785611: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:393360 profit:-0.01000000 bal:156.92000000 n:122 percent tot:0.92000000
2013-09-25 07:23:07 (153338) bet #138785659: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:870691 profit:10.00000000 bal:166.92000000 n:123 percent tot:10.92000000
2013-09-25 07:23:15 (153338) bet #138785680: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:586974 profit:0.01000000 bal:166.93000000 n:124 percent tot:10.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:19 (153338) bet #138785750: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:284089 profit:-10.00000000 bal:156.93000000 n:125 percent tot:0.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:27 (153338) bet #138785780: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:478542 profit:-20.00000000 bal:136.93000000 n:126 percent tot:-19.07000000
2013-09-25 07:23:30 (153338) bet #138785829: 40 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:875311 profit:40.00000000 bal:176.93000000 n:127 percent tot:20.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:34 (153338) bet #138785895: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:363774 profit:-10.00000000 bal:166.93000000 n:128 percent tot:10.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:36 (153338) bet #138785930: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:377457 profit:-20.00000000 bal:146.93000000 n:129 percent tot:-9.07000000
2013-09-25 07:23:38 (153338) bet #138785965: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:983858 profit:0.01000000 bal:146.94000000 n:130 percent tot:-9.06000000
2013-09-25 07:23:39 (153338) bet #138785991: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:478431 profit:-0.01000000 bal:146.93000000 n:131 percent tot:-9.07000000
2013-09-25 07:23:42 (153338) bet #138786036: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:457867 profit:-20.00000000 bal:126.93000000 n:132 percent tot:-29.07000000
2013-09-25 07:23:43 (153338) bet #138786065: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:949274 profit:20.00000000 bal:146.93000000 n:133 percent tot:-9.07000000
2013-09-25 07:23:46 (153338) bet #138786107: 40 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:903949 profit:40.00000000 bal:186.93000000 n:134 percent tot:30.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:49 (153338) bet #138786170: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:730583 profit:20.00000000 bal:206.93000000 n:135 percent tot:50.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:51 (153338) bet #138786195: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:374917 profit:-20.00000000 bal:186.93000000 n:136 percent tot:30.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:52 (153338) bet #138786225: 40 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:642858 profit:40.00000000 bal:226.93000000 n:137 percent tot:70.93000000
2013-09-25 07:23:55 (153338) bet #138786267: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:805030 profit:0.01000000 bal:226.94000000 n:138 percent tot:70.94000000
2013-09-25 07:23:57 (153338) bet #138786317: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:312292 profit:-10.00000000 bal:216.94000000 n:139 percent tot:60.94000000
2013-09-25 07:24:00 (153338) bet #138786359: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:228434 profit:-20.00000000 bal:196.94000000 n:140 percent tot:40.94000000
2013-09-25 07:24:02 (153338) bet #138786385: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:487765 profit:-0.01000000 bal:196.93000000 n:141 percent tot:40.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:06 (153338) bet #138786459: 30 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:619344 profit:30.00000000 bal:226.93000000 n:142 percent tot:70.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:08 (153338) bet #138786502: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:555963 profit:0.01000000 bal:226.94000000 n:143 percent tot:70.94000000
2013-09-25 07:24:18 (153338) bet #138786542: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:7031 profit:-10.00000000 bal:216.94000000 n:144 percent tot:60.94000000
2013-09-25 07:24:28 (153338) bet #138786602: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:516482 profit:0.01000000 bal:216.95000000 n:145 percent tot:60.95000000
2013-09-25 07:24:30 (153338) bet #138786629: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:186937 profit:-0.01000000 bal:216.94000000 n:146 percent tot:60.94000000
2013-09-25 07:24:32 (153338) bet #138786678: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:183861 profit:-10.00000000 bal:206.94000000 n:147 percent tot:50.94000000
2013-09-25 07:24:35 (153338) bet #138786709: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:515250 profit:20.00000000 bal:226.94000000 n:148 percent tot:70.94000000
2013-09-25 07:24:37 (153338) bet #138786744: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:488145 profit:-0.01000000 bal:226.93000000 n:149 percent tot:70.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:39 (153338) bet #138786781: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:639583 profit:10.00000000 bal:236.93000000 n:150 percent tot:80.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:42 (153338) bet #138786829: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:355321 profit:-0.01000000 bal:236.92000000 n:151 percent tot:80.92000000
2013-09-25 07:24:45 (153338) bet #138786891: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:626845 profit:10.00000000 bal:246.92000000 n:152 percent tot:90.92000000
2013-09-25 07:24:47 (153338) bet #138786924: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:948903 profit:0.01000000 bal:246.93000000 n:153 percent tot:90.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:49 (153338) bet #138786961: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:960488 profit:10.00000000 bal:256.93000000 n:154 percent tot:100.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:51 (153338) bet #138786991: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:579910 profit:10.00000000 bal:266.93000000 n:155 percent tot:110.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:52 (153338) bet #138787011: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:600499 profit:10.00000000 bal:276.93000000 n:156 percent tot:120.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:54 (153338) bet #138787033: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:700410 profit:10.00000000 bal:286.93000000 n:157 percent tot:130.93000000
2013-09-25 07:24:55 (153338) bet #138787053: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:211801 profit:-10.00000000 bal:276.93000000 n:158 percent tot:120.93000000
2013-09-25 07:25:04 (153338) bet #138787094: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:716961 profit:20.00000000 bal:296.93000000 n:159 percent tot:140.93000000
2013-09-25 07:25:06 (153338) bet #138787123: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:162664 profit:-20.00000000 bal:276.93000000 n:160 percent tot:120.93000000
2013-09-25 07:25:09 (153338) bet #138787175: 40 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:598236 profit:40.00000000 bal:316.93000000 n:161 percent tot:160.93000000
2013-09-25 07:25:18 (153338) bet #138787214: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:462954 profit:-0.01000000 bal:316.92000000 n:162 percent tot:160.92000000
2013-09-25 07:25:28 (153338) bet #138787260: 10 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:499672 profit:-10.00000000 bal:306.92000000 n:163 percent tot:150.92000000
2013-09-25 07:25:30 (153338) bet #138787301: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:363675 profit:-0.01000000 bal:306.91000000 n:164 percent tot:150.91000000
2013-09-25 07:25:33 (153338) bet #138787351: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:39051 profit:-0.01000000 bal:306.90000000 n:165 percent tot:150.90000000
2013-09-25 07:25:35 (153338) bet #138787377: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:230749 profit:-0.01000000 bal:306.89000000 n:166 percent tot:150.89000000
2013-09-25 07:25:36 (153338) bet #138787398: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:626664 profit:0.01000000 bal:306.90000000 n:167 percent tot:150.90000000
2013-09-25 07:25:38 (153338) bet #138787429: 0.01 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:942224 profit:0.01000000 bal:306.91000000 n:168 percent tot:150.91000000
2013-09-25 07:25:40 (153338) bet #138787465: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:985296 profit:20.00000000 bal:326.91000000 n:169 percent tot:170.91000000
2013-09-25 07:25:41 (153338) bet #138787491: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:567170 profit:20.00000000 bal:346.91000000 n:170 percent tot:190.91000000
2013-09-25 07:25:43 (153338) bet #138787513: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:588890 profit:20.00000000 bal:366.91000000 n:171 percent tot:210.91000000
2013-09-25 07:25:44 (153338) bet #138787534: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:434176 profit:-20.00000000 bal:346.91000000 n:172 percent tot:190.91000000
2013-09-25 07:25:46 (153338) bet #138787569: 40 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:722284 profit:40.00000000 bal:386.91000000 n:173 percent tot:230.91000000
2013-09-25 07:25:50 (153338) bet #138787646: 20 BTC @ 49.5% hi: lucky:532788 profit:20.00000000 bal:406.91000000 n:174 percent tot:250.91000000
2013-09-25 07:27:04 (153338) chat: <percent> I think I've proved only raising HE for large bets (profit larger than 50) is not effective to JD.
2013-09-25 07:27:24 (153338) chat: <percent> I only deposited 156, now 406.
2013-09-25 07:27:57 (153338) chat: <percent> I'm not in hurry.
2013-09-25 07:28:25 (153338) chat: <percent> done for today. already 75% up.
2013-09-25 07:38:38 (153338) ACTION (withdraw, "125.34.52.64") success: 255.99990000 to 17ziML8b3hZEKpYeJu3UeSx8TTBDKTDHoU txid 77df6a3b86765386793b0033e56fc29f5a1cae37b2ee7c001ffaa0cf99b144bb

I had been talking in the chat about increasing the house edge for bets with profit over 50 BTC (since none of the competition with a 1% edge allows bets that big anyway).  This was obviously his way of 'showing me' that it won't help...

[drawingthesun]

increasing the house edge for bets with profit over 50 BTC (since none of the competition with a 1% edge allows bets that big anyway).  This was obviously his way of 'showing me' that it won't help...

I think increasing the house edge for larger bets is a good idea, or lower the site max bet.

Edit: raising HE as the bets get bigger is actually a good idea. We can still be competitive with Satoshi dice and Lets dice too.

[elm]

@Peter and all

I will give my 2 cents in simple words. And please excuse my english. I am not a maths expert like a few of You. But I am experienced in gambling matters and cheats. I have to admit not that much regarding online gaming and Provably Fair.  I will just give examples what could be possible IMHO

I understood that there is a 100% Provably fair option but it would delay any gambling action by so much that a dice, roulette, black jack, etc gambler would not touch and waste his time. A gambler wants the action.

This is telling me that JD is not Provably fair. @Dabs said JD is Provably fair for the gambler but not for the operator and investors. knowing this and if some one decided to cheat on JD he can only cheat the operator and investors. The gambler is secured and is fighting the 1% house edge. So at the end the gambler will lose his 1% of his turnover.

Lets start with the whale. the whale is a solo con artist and has info about the seeds. And is actually handling his betting style according his opinion in a smart way. I would say no. if he knows the outcome in advance he could make his betting pattern much healthier and much more unsuspicious.  Here we dont know how smart he is and if it is an ego trip.  But if I take Peter's point that he is betting high after 2 small bets(dont know if it is true), this would tell me that he knows the outcome and this would need a 2nd person to be involved and they decided to go for this way of pattern. That would mean that the seeds are made to give out this pattern 2 small bets and 1 big bet. He also can allow himself to lose by purpose big bets so people will think he is just a lucky gambler.

lets take the operator. He could be the victim if the whale like I mentioned above is a solo con artist and he knows how to get the seeds. Chances are slim IMHO. The operator could partner with the whale and that would be much easier to do.

Now lets take the Investors. To be fair to all participants I would say that there is a possibility that one or more of the investors are also involved and partnering with the whale and the operator. But I would say and my opinions that the Investors are the “VICTIMS” in any case, If the operator is involved or not.

If the operator is interested I could post my idea how to test it to find out if some cheat is happening. To minimize the damage it would be important to find out where or who is the cheat here and close it so at least the investors will not lose all. IMHO the whale will not give back any of the BTC he has already. In contrary he will take more and more as long he is allowed to gamble. In all casinos on the earth he would be banned long ago. To let him go on playing is a mistake as long the cheat is not discovered.

sure we could go on and on, like some mentioned before that maybe amazon insider could be involved and so on. the main pint to make a decision is if it is a con action or a lucky guy.

IMHO he is not a lucky guy

[Progressive]

increasing the house edge for bets with profit over 50 BTC (since none of the competition with a 1% edge allows bets that big anyway).  This was obviously his way of 'showing me' that it won't help...

I think increasing the house edge for larger bets is a good idea

Maybe the house edge could move (logaritmic/linear/whatever) with the bet size (from e.g. 50 BTC up)

[dooglus]

3. Now, if all you do is calculate what he WOULD have won had the dice result been shifted by 2, then I calculate +420,784 BTC! 

He has said before that "the most common sequence of wins and losses is WLWLWL" or words to that effect.

If he bets small, waiting for a win followed by a loss, and then bets big, expecting a win next, he'll be right about half the time.

If you shift his big bets back two steps then he'll be right every time (since the two bets before the big one were W and L) - the big bet will land on the first observed W rather than the third hoped-for W.

Surely that explains your observed result doesn't it?  Or were you shifting in the opposite direction?

[drawingthesun]

increasing the house edge for bets with profit over 50 BTC (since none of the competition with a 1% edge allows bets that big anyway).  This was obviously his way of 'showing me' that it won't help...

I think increasing the house edge for larger bets is a good idea

Maybe the house edge could move (logaritmic/linear/whatever) with the bet size (from e.g. 50 BTC up)

Or even better, the house edge could move based not on 50 btc and up, but rather as a function of % of invested.

So:
1% house edge max bet up to 0.1% bankroll
1.5% house edge max bet up to 0.3% bankroll
1.8% house edge max bet up to 0.5% bankroll
2% house edge max bet over 0.5% bankroll.

[🏰 TradeFortress 🏰]

2013-09-25 07:38:38 (153338) ACTION (withdraw, "*.*.*.*") success: 255.99990000 to 17ziML8b3hZEKpYeJu3UeSx8TTBDKTDHoU txid 77df6a3b86765386793b0033e56fc29f5a1cae37b2ee7c001ffaa0cf99b144bb

I wouldn't post a customer's IP.

[dooglus]

3. Now, if all you do is calculate what he WOULD have won had the dice result been shifted by 2, then I calculate +420,784 BTC!  

4. If you shift it by 1, I calculate -427,822 BTC!  

If what I said in point 3 and 4 are correct, then you wouldn't find this fishy?  Almost like he was purposely leaving a trial?

I can very confidently say that both 3 and 4 are wrong.  Somewhere you messed up.  Note how 3 and 4 are VERY similar sizes but opposite sign?  Note also that he was nealy always betting high.  So most of the time shifting a win would stay a win.  The only way you'd get that result for real was if he exactly alternated big/small bets and the RNG generated in high/low alternating sequence as well.  And if he did that, shifting 2 would be roughly same results as he actually got.

Your program is broken.

Following on from my last post.  If he waits for 2 small bets where the first wins and the 2nd loses, then bets big, then shifting by 1 will result in the big bet losing, while shifting by 2 will result in it winning.

This would give exactly the results Peter is seeing.

[Deprived]

3. Now, if all you do is calculate what he WOULD have won had the dice result been shifted by 2, then I calculate +420,784 BTC!  

4. If you shift it by 1, I calculate -427,822 BTC!  

If what I said in point 3 and 4 are correct, then you wouldn't find this fishy?  Almost like he was purposely leaving a trial?

I can very confidently say that both 3 and 4 are wrong.  Somewhere you messed up.  Note how 3 and 4 are VERY similar sizes but opposite sign?  Note also that he was nealy always betting high.  So most of the time shifting a win would stay a win.  The only way you'd get that result for real was if he exactly alternated big/small bets and the RNG generated in high/low alternating sequence as well.  And if he did that, shifting 2 would be roughly same results as he actually got.

Your program is broken.

Following on from my last post.  If he waits for 2 small bets where the first wins and the 2nd loses, then bets big, then shifting by 1 will result in the big bet losing, while shifting by 2 will result in it winning.

This would give exactly the results Peter is seeing.

Yeah - very good point.  If he's betting based on certain past actions then shifting WOULD give ridiculous looking results.  And that would in no way be evidence of chearing - in fact the opposite if anything.

If you can break down his behaviour into rules then in theory at least you could check to see whether it was just luck or he'd somehow spotted a real pattern (meaning the seeding system is broken).  That would mean running loads of tests where you ran the betting rules against a long series of bets from multiple sets of seeds.

[dooglus]

2013-09-25 07:38:38 (153338) ACTION (withdraw, "*.*.*.*") success: 255.99990000 to 17ziML8b3hZEKpYeJu3UeSx8TTBDKTDHoU txid 77df6a3b86765386793b0033e56fc29f5a1cae37b2ee7c001ffaa0cf99b144bb

I wouldn't post a customer's IP.

It changes completely all the time.  I expect it's a Tor IP or some proxy or other and useless for identifying him.

[Mitchell]

This is really interesting to follow, but I don't feel bad for the people who invested. I mean, you know that his could happen. You know that a whale could eat up all the profit in no time.

Dooglus, I admire how you react on the situation. You payout every time and I think that is worth a compliment. I know for sure that many other sites would just shutdown / block people like him to prevent those huge losses.

[Rampion]

I had been talking in the chat about increasing the house edge for bets with profit over 50 BTC (since none of the competition with a 1% edge allows bets that big anyway).  This was obviously his way of 'showing me' that it won't help...

I think that'd be a good start, considering that this huge hit is caused by a combination of:

a) one single player gambling with a bankroll orders of magnitude bigger than the average player's
b) a high max bet
c) a low house edge

I'm quite sure you've analyzed this thoroughly and I 100% trust you, and my own analysis tells me this doesn't looks like cheating, its just a big but perfectly possible variance caused by the circumstances stated above.

I've lost 25% of my investment so far but I don't care, I'm stating the obvious here but all the investments come with a risk. You created an excellent and innovative product and you are doing an excellent job, full support from my side, I'm with you and JD for the long run. Math is on our side