“The Foresight saga” or fundamental teaching on an innovative forecasting tool
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So the Old New Year (Russian holiday celebrated on December 13) has passed, and winter holidays have probably come to an end. Let's not get sad, my friends. The Red Dog year (according to Eastern calendar) is supposed to be a year of accumulation of new knowledge — and the AraneoBit team doesn’t argue with stars. We decided to arrange an educational program on buzz words and latest technologies for our subscribers. Today we gonna tell about foresight. Just in a few days, we’ll issue a report about our very first foresight. In fact, everything has started with it. Well…
What kind of thing is that?The term “foresight” means a current forecast, vision, prediction of the development of the situation in politics, economics, business, science, culture. Foresight is the modeling of long-term and medium-term forecasts from 5 to 50 years. These forecasts are based on reliable short-term forecasts according to the latest trends.
Foresight is planning with a very high degree of probability. The goals are not only set but put into effect. They become our life the next morning or in a couple of years. Ray Bradbury had a story about the wings of a butterfly, which message is “decision taken today affects our life tomorrow”. Foresight is just about it. The purpose of the foresight is to create the future, to find an unusual solution to the problem, to release a viable and socially necessary product.
How it all startedThe term "foresight" appeared in the 1950s in corporate meetings of RAND Corporation. Later this method of forecasting was used in research on the defense and security of the state in the US. Since then, it has been used both in business and in public administration. In the 1970s foresight appears in Japan, in the 1980s — in Europe as a technology for developing ideas. The term has been actively used since the early 1990s. At this time, programs in the field of technological foresight have been introduced by Great Britain, Germany, France, the Netherlands, Austria. Proper foresights have been launched by South Korea and India.
Each country is looking forward to foresight results, which depend on the political and economic situation, as well as on the level of technological development. Each state emphasizes the result of the foresight approach in different ways: technological effects in the economy and social life, marketing, industry and telecommunications, ecology and sustainable development, the possibility of creating new technologies and technological breakthrough.
So-called Lisbon Strategy was adopted in the European Union in March 2000. That strategy offered EU countries to use foresight as an innovative forecasting tool and to determine the prospects for the development of the scientific and technical sphere with its help.
How does it work in practice?Foresight is similar to brainstorming and a corporate party — a kind of party without parents. If parents have driven away, everyone feels relaxed, and ideas are flowing, solutions are smooth and elegant.
Indeed, foresight still has to be built, the stream of thoughts should be purposeful. To get full foresight, you need a master who can lead it. Also, various tools for analyzing information flows and working with the expert community are required. The desire of people to participate in the process is also vitally important.
The key points of the foresight are:
1. Trends — existing and emerging. At the same time, the existing and observed processes are considered;
2. Technology — new trends that follow existing ones;
3. Formats, i.e. the technologies of interaction between the people;
4. Key events that may start, break or change the rate of trend growth;
5. Bills and regulations — existing and perspective;
6. Threats that may adversely affect business, market, educational institutions, etc.
All the above is mostly an extended SWOT analysis model, one of the most popular methods for predicting the strengths and weaknesses of a situation, its capabilities, and threats (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats).
One more popular way to organize foresight is the Delphi method, which got this name in honor of the Delphic Oracles. Foresight is conducted between experts. Most often they even don’t know each other, and an organizational group brings their opinions together. The bottom line is to achieve the maximum consensus with independent surveys, interviews and brainstorming to choose the right tactics.
Another way of prediction on the brink of fantasy is scenario planning. This technique involves scenarios of an alternative future based on predefined elements and key uncertainties. For example, one can imagine that people have learned to receive nuclear energy safely, they have got a lot of free time, and the Earth has become a green paradise. The world is ruled by the world government according to the World Constitution, and which can be changed only once in 25 years. What will be the format of people's communication with each other and with the state? Will it lead to exchange in kind and direct agreements? Or conversely, all interaction will be mediated by high-tech control of the government? In other words,will we live in a world of Nolan or Wells?
N.B.
You may distrustfully grin and remember Tsiolkovsky and Orwell, which worlds have already been translated into reality. It seems that the future can be formed indeed — and the secret is in trends that rule the roots. Foresight is not just speculation; it is an attempt to assess long-term prospects to understand the strategy for further action. In our insane time of rapid changes, foresight is an essential tool for the formation of an innovative economy. You can foresee or make a mistake.
Anyway, we will rush into 2018 with the best and correct predictions, dear friends!
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