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Author Topic: [LABCOIN] IPO [BTCT.CO] - Details/FAQ and Discussion (ASIC dev/sales/mining)  (Read 1058520 times)
jeffhuys
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September 05, 2013, 04:57:39 PM
 #5381

Thank you, N_S  Smiley

Let's see where this goes!

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Bitcycle
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September 05, 2013, 04:58:51 PM
 #5382

^"Worst reasonable case" is still LC being entirely fraudulent

No, that's not 'reasonable'.

 Possible, yes. 

But not a reasonable conclusion given what we've seen so far.

ShawnP
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September 05, 2013, 04:59:29 PM
 #5383

As we already stated, chip documentation isn't ready yet for public distribution.
You are gonna start mining in less than 1 week and you can not give us any info about your
chips. You can not be serious?

Deployment is proceeding according to plans and pictures of the devices will be revealed later. Hashing will start on the promised date.
You are gonna start mining very soon and no you can not provide any real evidence. Seriously by now i would hope you
would have prototype running and would show us evidence.

^"Worst reasonable case" is still LC being entirely fraudulent
I agree. Still no real proof they have developed anything, besides that chip, that could be anything.
creativex
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September 05, 2013, 05:07:33 PM
 #5384

As we already stated, chip documentation isn't ready yet for public distribution.
You are gonna start mining in less than 1 week and you can not give us any info about your
chips. You can not be serious?

Deployment is proceeding according to plans and pictures of the devices will be revealed later. Hashing will start on the promised date.
You are gonna start mining very soon and no you can not provide any real evidence. Seriously by now i would hope you
would have prototype running and would show us evidence.

^"Worst reasonable case" is still LC being entirely fraudulent
I agree. Still no real proof they have developed anything, besides that chip, that could be anything.

You're right, all that is rather odd AND I wouldn't even mind if they'd simply do what they said they'd do. They were going to lock up founder shares and offer proof they'd done so, but did not do this. Now we can only speculate on whether management still has any skin in the game or not.

I'm not selling, but I won't buy more till they start communicating and doing what they say they'll do. Vague promises about future hashes and a photo op at some future date only go so far.

Mabsark
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September 05, 2013, 05:27:25 PM
 #5385

As we already stated, chip documentation isn't ready yet for public distribution.
You are gonna start mining in less than 1 week and you can not give us any info about your
chips. You can not be serious?

Deployment is proceeding according to plans and pictures of the devices will be revealed later. Hashing will start on the promised date.
You are gonna start mining very soon and no you can not provide any real evidence. Seriously by now i would hope you
would have prototype running and would show us evidence.

^"Worst reasonable case" is still LC being entirely fraudulent
I agree. Still no real proof they have developed anything, besides that chip, that could be anything.

Why would the people who have the necessary knowledge to produce the chip documentation need to actually produce that documentation in order to start mining? The documentation is mainly for third party developers producing their own boards to run LC's chips.
Ytterbium
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September 05, 2013, 05:36:51 PM
 #5386

^"Worst reasonable case" is still LC being entirely fraudulent

I think the probability of that is low. All I said is that you have to look at the possibility. You don't have to assume it's 100% certain.

The way to do it is, estimate the probability of various possible outcomes and how much money you'll make in those scenarios.

So let's say there are three possible outcomes:

1) Labcoin is a total fraud.  Let's say there's a 1% chance of this
2) The network is 1PH on November 1st and Labcoin has 0.05PH, or 5% of the network.
2) The network is 5PH on November 1st and Labcoin has 0.50PH, or 1% of the network.

And there is an equal likelihood of both 1 and 2, 49.5%.

Then what you do is calculate the expected value in each scenario and multiply it by the probability.  In possibility 1, the value is 0%.  In the other scenarios you assign a value to a network %. If we're going by the current ASICMiner valuation of 2.1 for 5% of the network (basing it off of with blockchain's estimate over the past 4 days) and 400k vs 10 million shares you get:

400k shares/10m shares * 2.1/5 = 0.0168 as an expected share price @ 1% of the network.
400k shares/10m shares * 2.1    = 0.084 as an expected share price @ 5% of the network.

Now, you multiply both those values by 0.49 and add to get 0.049BTC as the 'expected' share price with the given the above probability distribution.

But, obviously there are more possibilities then that.  To do a real analysis you'd need to take the probability distribution function of the network hashrate, the probability distribution of the likely hashrate and then take the double integral in order to integrate over the the 'surface' of that 2d vector space to find the expected value of Labcoin on November 1st.

But that's assuming that "the market" will consider Labcoin to be capable of keeping (at least) it's share of the market as good as they currently think ASICminer will.  We know the network will continue to grow and now we know that Labcoin plans on having about 0.2-0.3PH online by the end of the year.  But guessing the hashrate in January is even more difficult then guessing the hashrate in November.

So, it is really difficult to guess the price. And of course Labcoin won't have the 'history' of ASICMiner for another year or so in terms of being able to keep up with network growth, so it likely won't be priced as high (But, the price of ASICMiner is dropping as well)

cw92
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September 05, 2013, 05:48:42 PM
 #5387

More than half of the last AM dividend came from hardware sales.  Roughly speaking, AM share price trends toward 25% APR; without the sales price would probably be below 1.0.  LC will not have meaningful hardware sales, and a network hashrate of only 1 PH in November is unrealistic. 
demzie
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September 05, 2013, 06:04:19 PM
 #5388

"LC will not have meaningful hardware sales" why not?
ShawnP
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September 05, 2013, 06:06:44 PM
 #5389

I think the probability of that is low. All I said is that you have to look at the possibility. You don't have to assume it's 100% certain.
What you think more is more or less irelevant.
We need some hard evidence. This mumbo jumbo about
probabilities or some empty words is not gonna cut it anymore.

More than half of the last AM dividend came from hardware sales.  Roughly speaking, AM share price trends toward 25% APR; without the sales price would probably be below 1.0.  LC will not have meaningful hardware sales, and a network hashrate of only 1 PH in November is unrealistic. 
Just to add some numbers.
This week Asiminer dividend from mining was only 0,00593 per share with 2,374.66153794 BTC mined.
rest came from hardware sales and mining franchising. (3,234.63 BTC)
Bitcycle
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September 05, 2013, 06:09:31 PM
 #5390


What you think more is more or less irelevant.
We need some hard evidence. This mumbo jumbo about
probabilities or some empty words is not gonna cut it anymore.




What sort of hard evidence would satisfy you?

Hashing?

Sure, wait until they're hashing. I'm sure you'll react fast enough to make a profit.

N_S
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September 05, 2013, 06:21:12 PM
 #5391

What sort of hard evidence would satisfy you?

Hashing?

Sure, wait until they're hashing. I'm sure you'll react fast enough to make a profit.

This is exactly right. Risk is usually directly correlated to reward. People want a sure thing with a huge payout. It's not going to happen.

Labcoin seems about as sure a thing as you get in this game for where they're at.
Ytterbium
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September 05, 2013, 06:21:18 PM
 #5392

More than half of the last AM dividend came from hardware sales.  Roughly speaking, AM share price trends toward 25% APR; without the sales price would probably be below 1.0.  LC will not have meaningful hardware sales, and a network hashrate of only 1 PH in November is unrealistic.  

AM's price right now is 40% Yeild right now, not 25.

(Or in other words they have a 2.5 price/annual dividend ratio, compared to a 4 price/div if it was at 25%)

So, the market is cooling off on them, possibly to move money into Labcoin and ActM.

Also, the earlier comment I made was just a simplified example of how to do the calculations, not an actual estimate - an actual estimate would require estimating a fully probability density function for multiple things (network hashrate, Labcoin's hashrate, and the changes in those things over time).  It's doable, but the 'space' is so wide open that any estimate is going to have a huge amount of uncertainty.

And as I said, LC is not going to have the history that AM does, so it's not going to be priced the same.

That said, though even if we look at just September, and October, LC's Just LC's dividends for only those two months should be higher then it's current share price.  

That means that the share price right now is based on a high probability that LC will be a total failure (either a scam, or bad chips, or whatever)

TMAN
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September 05, 2013, 06:23:22 PM
 #5393

So labcoin bad again now? And active is flavour of the day from a press release

#FREETMAN
N_S
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September 05, 2013, 06:23:53 PM
 #5394

So labcoin bad again now? And active is flavour of the day from a press release

The standard ebb and flow...
Ytterbium
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September 05, 2013, 06:24:16 PM
 #5395

So labcoin bad again now? And active is flavour of the day from a press release

No, Labcoin's shares are cheap now. Grin

TMAN
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September 05, 2013, 06:25:11 PM
 #5396

So no change? Sorry I didn't catch up on the threads I've only use got out of the office

#FREETMAN
Bitcycle
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September 05, 2013, 06:27:11 PM
 #5397


That means that the share price right now is based on a high probability that LC will be a total failure (either a scam, or bad chips, or whatever)

People are giving this a VERY high probability, as you point out.  

I just don't see the evidence for a scam.  They've behaved exactly the opposite of how scammers behave.  If you believe it's a scam, you're not basing it on what we've seen thus far from them, you're basing it on something else.

Which leaves technical issues as the main risk. But they've indicated they will be on schedule, which means they have encountered no major techinical issues yet.  

They might be lying, of course.  It's possible.  I just don't see any evidence that it's very likely.

People are just overly gunshy.

Fine with me, I guess.  I'll be accepting their money when the share price jumps up.



Ytterbium
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September 05, 2013, 06:40:22 PM
 #5398


That means that the share price right now is based on a high probability that LC will be a total failure (either a scam, or bad chips, or whatever)

People are giving this a VERY high probability, as you point out.  

I just don't see the evidence for a scam.  They've behaved exactly the opposite of how scammers behave.  If you believe it's a scam, you're not basing it on what we've seen thus far from them, you're basing it on something else.

Which leaves technical issues as the main risk. But they've indicated they will be on schedule, which means they have encountered no major techinical issues yet.  

They might be lying, of course.  It's possible.  I just don't see any evidence that it's very likely.

People are just overly gunshy.

Fine with me, I guess.  I'll be accepting their money when the share price jumps up.

Well, personally I just think this market is totally irrational, and the price is just based on inertia and lack of liquidity to buy ActM shares which everyone wants now. And I think they are legit and will be hashing soon.

But the point is, further evidence that labcoin is "legit" and neither a scam nor a total failure should, if the market is rational, cause the share price to jump, just like the eASIC letter proved that ActM was at least legit.

But, if it doesn't move the needle it would be because of market irrationality, which you can profit off of if you're patient.  As I've said, I expect initial dividends in just September and October to more then cover the current share price.

ShawnP
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September 05, 2013, 06:44:15 PM
 #5399

What sort of hard evidence would satisfy you?
Hashing?
Sure, wait until they're hashing. I'm sure you'll react fast enough to make a profit.
Chip specifications and pictures of working hashing device would be nice with some better chip photos.
I dont give much thought about what they say about hashing. First need to see proof that they developed anything.
N_S
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September 05, 2013, 06:45:41 PM
 #5400

Chip specifications and pictures of working hashing device would be nice with some better chip photos.
I dont give much thought about what they say about hashing. First need to see proof that they developed anything.

Am I wrong to think you'd like that but also a 0.0035 share price?
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