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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 858065 times)
Pab
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November 08, 2017, 11:01:50 PM
 #5341

Wyckoff Distribution Schematic #1:



Link to "some" of his teachings:http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

One section Per that article in the previous link:

PSY—preliminary supply, where large interests begin to unload shares in quantity after a pronounced up-move. Volume expands and price spread widens, signaling that a change in trend may be approaching.

BC—buying climax, during which there are often marked increases in volume and price spread. The force of buying reaches a climax, and heavy or urgent buying by the public is being filled by professional interests at prices near a top. A BC often occurs coincident with a great earnings report or other good news, since the large operators require huge demand from the public to sell their shares without depressing the stock price.

AR—automatic reaction. With intense buying substantially diminished after the BC and heavy supply continuing, an AR takes place. The low of this selloff helps define the lower boundary of the distribution TR.

ST—secondary test, in which price revisits the area of the BC to test the demand/supply balance at these price levels. If a top is to be confirmed, supply will outweigh demand, and volume and spread should decrease as price approaches the resistance area of the BC. A ST may take the form of an upthrust (UT), in which price moves above the resistance represented by the BC and possibly other STs, then quickly reverses to close below resistance. After a UT, price often tests the lower boundary of the TR.

SOW—sign of weakness, observable as a down-move to (or slightly past) the lower boundary of the TR, usually occurring on increased spread and volume. The AR and the initial SOW(s) indicate a change of character in the price action of the stock: supply is now dominant.

LPSY—last point of supply. After testing support on a SOW, a feeble rally on narrow spread shows that the market is having considerable difficulty advancing. This inability to rally may be due to weak demand, substantial supply or both. LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.

UTAD—upthrust after distribution. A UTAD is the distributional counterpart to the spring and terminal shakeout in the accumulation TR. It occurs in the latter stages of the TR and provides a definitive test of new demand after a breakout above TR resistance. Analogous to springs and shakeouts, a UTAD is not a required structural element: the TR in Distribution Schematic #1 contains a UTAD, while the TR in Distribution Schematic #2 does not.




Phase A: Phase A in a distribution TR marks the stopping of the prior uptrend. Up to this point, demand has been dominant and the first significant evidence of supply entering the market is provided by preliminary supply (PSY) and the buying climax (BC). These events are usually followed by an automatic reaction (AR) and then a secondary test (ST) of the BC, often upon diminished volume. However, the uptrend may also terminate without climactic action, instead demonstrating exhaustion of demand with decreasing spread and volume, and with less upward progress made on each rally before significant supply emerges.

In a redistribution TR within a larger downtrend, phase A may look more like the start of an accumulation TR (e.g., with climactic price and volume action to the downside). However, phases B through E of a re-distribution TR can be analyzed in a similar manner to the distribution TR at the market top.

Phase B: The function of phase B is to build a cause in preparation for a new downtrend. During this time, institutions and large professional interests are disposing of their long inventory and initiating short positions in anticipation of the next markdown. The points about phase B in distribution are similar to those made for phase B in accumulation, except that the large interests are net sellers of shares as the TR evolves, with the goal of exhausting as much of the remaining demand as possible. This process leaves clues that the supply/demand balance has tilted toward supply instead of demand. For instance, SOWs are usually accompanied by significantly increased spread and volume to the downside.

Phase C: In distribution, phase C may reveal itself via an upthrust (UT) or UTAD. As noted above, a UT is the opposite of a spring. It is a price move above TR resistance that quickly reverses and closes in the TR. This is a test of the remaining demand. It is also a bull trap—it appears to signal the resumption of the uptrend but in reality is intended to “wrong-foot” uninformed break-out traders. A UT or UTAD allows large interests to mislead the public about the future trend direction and to sell additional shares at elevated prices to such break-out traders and investors before the markdown begins. In addition, a UTAD may induce smaller traders in short positions to cover and surrender their shares to the larger interests who have engineered this move.

Aggressive traders may wish to initiate short positions after a UT or UTAD. The risk/reward ratio is often quite favorable. However, the “smart money” repeatedly stops out traders who initiate such short positions with one UT after another, so it is often safer to wait until phase D and an LPSY.

Often demand is so weak in a distribution TR that price does not reach the level of the BC or initial ST. In this case, phase C's test of demand may be represented by a UT of a lower high within the TR.

Phase D: Phase D arrives after the tests in phase C show us the last gasps of demand. During phase D, price travels to or through TR support. The evidence that supply is clearly dominant increases either with a clear break of support or with a decline below the mid-point of the TR after a UT or UTAD. There are often multiple weak rallies within phase D; these LPSYs represent excellent opportunities to initiate or add to profitable short positions. Anyone still in a long position during phase D is asking for trouble.

Phase E: Phase E depicts the unfolding of the downtrend; the stock leaves the TR and supply is in control. Once TR support is broken on a major SOW, this breakdown is often tested with a rally that fails at or near support. This also represents a high-probability opportunity to sell short. Subsequent rallies during the markdown are usually feeble. Traders who have taken short positions can trail their stops as price declines. After a significant down-move, climactic action may signal the beginning of a re-distribution TR or of accumulation.


I'll stop posting some of it's writings to keep from spamming the thread too much.  Only wanted to provide enough to get you interested.


Thanks for sharing


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November 08, 2017, 11:20:30 PM
 #5342

I find in interested that masterluc see's the exponential trend but can't express it with elliott wave theory.

On the scale of the historic/primary count, it's impossible. Day-to-day or even week-to-week price movements can be too granular.

And if you'll recall, Lucif did attempt to draw a wave count a couple months back, predicting that we might fall to the lower $2000s in a local Wave 4. I believe that count was wrong and that we need to see considerably more consolidation (months of sideways congestion) before attempting to draw a Wave 4 onto the chart.

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November 08, 2017, 11:26:14 PM
 #5343

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!

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November 09, 2017, 12:00:26 AM
 #5344

I find in interested that masterluc see's the exponential trend but can't express it with elliott wave theory.

On the scale of the historic/primary count, it's impossible. Day-to-day or even week-to-week price movements can be too granular.

And if you'll recall, Lucif did attempt to draw a wave count a couple months back, predicting that we might fall to the lower $2000s in a local Wave 4. I believe that count was wrong and that we need to see considerably more consolidation (months of sideways congestion) before attempting to draw a Wave 4 onto the chart.

Yeah now we are on the progressive side of price and it won't be possible for that price to decrease at $2000 because it has come to the right path with demand to become more stable. People are not really particular on how it fluctuates like that analyzing the actual trend, and what they are more particular is the current price together with the idea of holding their patience and achieve good trades in the future. Maybe that lines in the chart was just a representation, and the actual outcome is a rewarding proof of scenario.

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November 09, 2017, 01:09:14 AM
 #5345


Thanks for sharing


Sure, appreciate others sharing as well.

The "Age of Information," Hey?  ;-)

An update mandatory since recent developments.  Just as suggested with the Black text bubble and the aqua blue circles I pointed out in regards to a repeated pattern in a previous post.  Looks like it did leg up a wee bit.  Is it done yet?  Not sure... Would have to go to lower TF.  Anyway, here's the much needed update WITHOUT INDICATORS / ONLY FIBS and a little Wyckoff.


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November 09, 2017, 01:17:15 AM
 #5346

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!
Thanks for coming back.  It's been a long time!
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November 09, 2017, 05:16:33 AM
 #5347

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!
Rare sighting on this thread ! Thanks mate for all your work.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/
A public update for your english followers ?
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November 09, 2017, 01:20:28 PM
 #5348

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!

 i am so excited that you are back!! welcome.are we still ion track to $15000~~$20000???hope you can update here.

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November 09, 2017, 01:25:41 PM
 #5349

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!

I have no idea what any of this means but it's great you still come back here every now and again. Thanks Master.
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November 09, 2017, 01:39:28 PM
 #5350

I've always had the feeling that 2020 was going to be the year of years. My opinion on that hasn't changed one bit. That's when we start to get a glimpse of the true potential of the whole thing.

Hmm, I also noticed that in the year everything will turn out to be very different things. Because I've seen it all already started first settled and also prepare for adjusting or a welcome change. Bitcoin for now is indeed the best step in welcoming the change, it would've been seen at this time where everything is already receiving and using bitcoin. Just wait for the right time to see the bitcoin became a very profitable future.

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▬▬     WHITEPAPER    ▬▬
FACEBOOK     TELEGRAM
TWITTER     SLACK     MEDIUM
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November 09, 2017, 08:03:53 PM
 #5351

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!
Rare sighting on this thread ! Thanks mate for all your work.

https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/
A public update for your english followers ?

I think he may have meant to convey the following message:

"Hi, we have approached a final phase during this 4 years of waiting.  Thanks for cross postings.

I didn't have doubts; I knew.

Bitcoin began/created a new universe where time is counted in blocks instead of time the way we have known it.  And we are only at "Level 1" of a new financial system/OSI Schematic:

I think he's referring to the first "PHYSICAL LAYER" having been laid.



Are you concerned about "block size?"  Then you should know that Ethernet has a maximum transfer packet rate of only 1500 bytes (1.5kbps).  But TCP/IP doesn't care about this.  Long live lightening!"

I think he intends to convey; When looking at bitcoin [As a Network Protocol] and it's adoption in a Financial Protocol, we are only in the first Physical layer of it's adoption.  The financial system is beginning to see how relevant blockchain technology is and we've only just begun this first phase of the OSI Schematic after 4 years of waiting.

Now we are entering the data link layer of this OSI Schematic; where institutions test and implement their physical blockchain layer as we advance forward to the data link layer [Linking together all of these networks (blockchains) into a seamless Network layer - 3rd level].

I could be totally off in what he intended to convey.  I simply thought I would give it a shot.

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November 09, 2017, 09:01:54 PM
 #5352

Luke, welcome back bud.

We sure missed you. Over the pages we have tried our best with the help of friends to decifer some of your russian posts.

We would really appreciate the odd post here (as you fans) to save us from misinterperetation.   Smiley

All the best,

Globb0

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November 09, 2017, 09:21:37 PM
 #5353

By him btc will drive to 9000$ untill fork,than will be big correct,after correct btc may goes to 14 k but it will take months,long time period
I see from your history that you're Polish.  I guess you have some facility with Russian.
That thing about substituting under the hamster shorts:  I sounds like very slangy Russian.  Are you familiar with that saying?
 Под шорт хомячьё видимо подставляете.
It's incredibly funny when translated literally to English.  But what does it mean?

Хомяк - hamster - inexperienced trader.
подставлять - to set up - to trick someone in order to make them do something.

So, the translation is:
Quote
It seems like you are setting up hamsters to go short.

Whatever that means in the context.

The fact that Google translates подставлять as "substitute," whether you paste the entire sentence or the word by itself, was confusing.  And of course it would be hard to guess what "hamster" means.
Having you translate the Russian helps a lot.  Thanks.

After the announcement that the big players are abandoning 2x, Vanga took the trouble to reiterate that nothing has changed since his prediction in May.

My updated forecasts I published in May. Since then, nothing has changed. Click the Play button.
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No- ..
15-20k on the idea will take and pretty quickly.


dmwardjr
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November 09, 2017, 11:38:20 PM
 #5354

Update on the Daily WITH Indicators:


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November 10, 2017, 12:05:57 AM
 #5355

Update on the Daily WITH Indicators:



I think you are going to be disappointed about A. the price hitting that lower trend support line in the mid 4500s and B. If it does hit that support line it might be a long time after you are predicting - therefore hitting it at a higher price.

If you haven't heard about what is happening with GAME, check it out.  It's revolutionizing gaming. https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1266597.0
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November 10, 2017, 02:57:38 AM
 #5356

Hi. We approach final phase of this 4yr of waiting. Thanks for cross postings.

I didnt beleived but knew.

Bitcoin borned new universe where time counted in blocks. And it is only Level 1 of new financial system OSI model. Are you concerned in block size? Then you should know that Ethernet has Maximum Transfer Unit of a packet of only 1500 bytes. But TCP/IP doesnt care about this. Long live Lightening!



If one were to extrapolate data from when masterluc last posted in this thread (Jan 16, 2017 around $800) then we can expect a price of $65,721 around September 2018.

Get your wallets ready.

 

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November 10, 2017, 03:25:48 AM
 #5357

Update on the Daily WITH Indicators:



I think you are going to be disappointed about A. the price hitting that lower trend support line in the mid 4500s and B. If it does hit that support line it might be a long time after you are predicting - therefore hitting it at a higher price.

Yep, in the best bear case, 5500 is about all I could expect, and without a close below Daily 20, it won't get below 6500 area. Should $5000 be breached, I think we would be in for a longer correction

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November 10, 2017, 06:12:47 AM
 #5358


I think you are going to be disappointed about A. the price hitting that lower trend support line in the mid 4500s and B. If it does hit that support line it might be a long time after you are predicting - therefore hitting it at a higher price.

Yes, $4,500 to mid $4,500's is too low in my opinion as well. My FIB was updated to what you see in the chart you quoted.  I had a different chart with a different number when our ATH was $7,590 before it jumped up to new ATH of $7,888.  That's when I made the update for the FIB RT 0.618 change due to a new ATH change.  It should still say, $4,854 is the 0.618 FIB RT according to a pattern I pointed out in prior posts.  

Also mentioned within (+/-) 2.3% of that $4,854 number..  
1% = $48.54
2% = $97.08
2.3% = $111.64

So, anywhere from $4,742.36 to $4,965.64 for the 0.618 FIB RT.

Thanks for sharing!  Will be interesting to see how it plays out.   Grin

Keep in mind, the above price points came from a "pattern" I noticed.  That's the main reason for sharing the FIB RT.


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November 10, 2017, 02:05:11 PM
 #5359

Update on the Daily; mainly to see the difference on the indicators.  Especially the bottom one.


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November 10, 2017, 05:39:07 PM
 #5360

Update on the Daily; mainly to see the difference on the indicators.  Especially the bottom one.

I like reading your analysis, but it would make more sense in its own thread since you're not discussion masterluc's analysis.

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