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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919649 times)
rjclarke2000
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June 23, 2016, 10:36:38 PM
 #4421

Look at weekly chart. Red candle 2012-08-13
yeah, break out of this correction was 5 months later. Btw, there was a halving event inside that correction (not affected price at all).

break out from $16-$7 into @256-$50 followed by wave $1152-$220 :-)
I'm expecting double wave  $4,000(top1)-$1,000(bottom1)-$10,000(top2)-$3,000(bottom2)



I think there would be a series of me passing out if this happens. I wouldn't know how to cope with those waves!
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thefiniteidea
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June 23, 2016, 10:41:55 PM
Last edit: June 23, 2016, 11:05:06 PM by thefiniteidea
 #4422

I wonder how much the halving had to do with the run-up in price. Bitcoin investors know that if the price isn't at a certain level, Bitcoin's mining incentives are slightly compromised, thus so is bitcoin. And this being a highly speculative investment, perhaps these heavily invested groups are simply attempting to save the value of their large Bitcoin portfolio by investing more into it?

Makes sense on paper, probably what happened, but we'll never know for sure.

Also, I'm happy to see that you are commenting a little more, lucif Smiley I am usually disengaged with Bitcoin in general when you're not around.

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davidorentol
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June 24, 2016, 03:22:24 AM
 #4423

But if yes, it would be a hammer/hanged

 might become green also  Grin
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June 24, 2016, 03:35:21 AM
 #4424

How about these futures markets, eh? Crazy ride right now... those Brits sure are causin' a bit of a ruckus :-)

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June 24, 2016, 05:05:09 AM
 #4425

Brexit officially ....this is BIG
masterluc
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June 25, 2016, 11:53:28 AM
 #4426

$683 is a 62% fib of current short term dump. So if price fail to break up this level, I have a bad news.

molecular
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June 25, 2016, 12:11:59 PM
 #4427

$683 is a 62% fib of current short term dump. So if price fail to break up this level, I have a bad news.

to illustrate:



how much time do we have?

PGP key molecular F9B70769 fingerprint 9CDD C0D3 20F8 279F 6BE0  3F39 FC49 2362 F9B7 0769
btc4lifer
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June 25, 2016, 12:48:19 PM
 #4428

I have a bad news.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hwkMujoo/

We have tested the weekly upper bb right now which sits at $690 on BFX (still open candle though so moving target).

Only time will tell if a stop loss at the break and/or retest of the weekly upper bb is a good sell.

sandiman
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June 25, 2016, 01:13:10 PM
 #4429

I can see an ascending triangle in what could be the B waves of the latest dump with upper limit currently at the 61,8% fib, we already at e of this triangle that if validated, will be folowed by a c waves. is winter coming?
Bavaria
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June 25, 2016, 03:13:27 PM
 #4430

Double bottom is generally entailed by uptrend. So I expect more price rise.
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June 26, 2016, 04:07:50 PM
 #4431

So what's happening with wave 3 now? Still valid?
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June 26, 2016, 05:35:30 PM
 #4432

So what's happening with wave 3 now? Still valid?

I believe historical 3 is still valid, however, we will likely have a multi week to multi month correction play out as we build a base for the next subwave up.  Unless we can get the weekly candle back above the upper bollinger band within the next 6.5 hours, this wave up is likely done.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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Stedsm
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June 26, 2016, 08:41:30 PM
 #4433

Bitcoins will see huge volatility as before we were only into halving, but now Brexit has taken place, and we will see how the markets would react to this. There is more to come out yet than what has already happened.

masterluc
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June 28, 2016, 03:31:56 PM
 #4434

According to this count:


The weekly sma20 is gonna be revisited first.


Tzupy
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June 28, 2016, 04:14:43 PM
 #4435

According to this count:


The weekly sma20 is gonna be revisited first.



IMO a correction down to 420$ could invalidate the bullish scenario, so permabulls better hope it stops at 480$.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
masterluc
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June 28, 2016, 04:29:39 PM
 #4436

IMO a correction down to 420$ could invalidate the bullish scenario, so permabulls better hope it stops at 480$.

How 62% retracement of $190 -> $800 move could invalidate something?


klee
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June 28, 2016, 04:38:40 PM
 #4437

According to this count:


The weekly sma20 is gonna be revisited first.



IMO a correction down to 420$ could invalidate the bullish scenario, so permabulls better hope it stops at 480$.

Doom is at 378:

Tzupy
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June 28, 2016, 04:45:10 PM
 #4438

IMO a correction down to 420$ could invalidate the bullish scenario, so permabulls better hope it stops at 480$.

How 62% retracement of $190 -> $800 move could invalidate something?



The first correction was about 30%. A new correction, from 700$ to 420$, would be 40%, and would increase the chances of a weak rebound and a third leg down.
Assuming this was a wave 3 and now we have a 4, it should stay mostly above 1 (475$). If it drops to 420$, then this might have been THE B wave and we could see a final bottom close to 100$.
But for now I see little reason for the doom scenario, the Chinese manipulators can make more money pumping than dumping. So I expect another 30%, from 700$ to 490$.

Sometimes, if it looks too bullish, it's actually bearish
Chainsaw
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June 28, 2016, 06:19:54 PM
 #4439

Greatly appreciating ingesting the three unique, well-thought-out positions - thanks.

sandiman
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June 28, 2016, 09:17:32 PM
 #4440

IMO a correction down to 420$ could invalidate the bullish scenario, so permabulls better hope it stops at 480$.

How 62% retracement of $190 -> $800 move could invalidate something?

img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/34G6zC2F/[/img]

The first correction was about 30%. A new correction, from 700$ to 420$, would be 40%, and would increase the chances of a weak rebound and a third leg down.
Assuming this was a wave 3 and now we have a 4, it should stay mostly above 1 (475$). If it drops to 420$, then this might have been THE B wave and we could see a final bottom close to 100$.
But for now I see little reason for the doom scenario, the Chinese manipulators can make more money pumping than dumping. So I expect another 30%, from 700$ to 490$.

How can you speak about elliot waves and then jump on "chinese manipulation". Elliot was is about crowd psychology to be short, and directly tied to natural laws. You can't be succesful using elliot waves if you don't even understand the core of it...

According to this count:


The weekly sma20 is gonna be revisited first.

img]https://www.tradingview.com/x/b5sdS9uw/[/img]

MasterLuc, I had a very similar count, but then a community member (same as usual) highlighted an issue with it. how can you count five waves in the i waves without breaking overlap rule firstly, and also without making the third wave the shortest??? I tried very hard to do so, but rules were consistently broken...
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