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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 919198 times)
sandiman
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November 06, 2016, 10:56:07 AM
 #4701

Not really his EW based prediction though right?

to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here.

that's his chart. He's trying to forecast price using a mix of EW and quantitative analysis (on historical volatility)
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RyNinDaCleM
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November 06, 2016, 02:45:12 PM
 #4702

@the last few posts...
This is  luc in 2011 https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=29732
This is also him https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=50218
And him yet again https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=144672

Note the first one and compare to the chart posted.
His earlier prediction is that we are in the large wave-3 since Bitcoin's birth... so yes, it's ew

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November 06, 2016, 03:17:40 PM
 #4703

Not really his EW based prediction though right?

to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here.

that's his chart. He's trying to forecast price using a mix of EW and quantitative analysis (on historical volatility)

so, like i said, there are two predictions out there. one says big triangle that reaches well into 2017 and one says we start a nice rally from this point.

just trying to clarify what's the consensus.
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November 06, 2016, 03:38:26 PM
Last edit: November 06, 2016, 04:48:52 PM by StarenseN
 #4704

And don't forget, Luc was also bearish in end 2012 at 13$ before the mega bull wave (x20 bubble to 260)

So please stop all this cult. He's been right and wrong too.

However, this is a quality thread that I enjoy to come by.
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November 06, 2016, 09:06:32 PM
 #4705

we're going up.

Luc was right about going up *eventually*

but he got the pattern wrong. no giant triangle consolidation this time.

also chessnut seems to agree about the fact we are not going up:

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This downside move was an impulse and it's broken some important levels. big time sideways should follow, downside risk is higher now



its a temporary move down. Could go as low as $650, but its all the way up after that



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Afrikoin
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November 06, 2016, 09:13:19 PM
 #4706

we're going up.

Luc was right about going up *eventually*

but he got the pattern wrong. no giant triangle consolidation this time.

also chessnut seems to agree about the fact we are not going up:

...

This downside move was an impulse and it's broken some important levels. big time sideways should follow, downside risk is higher now



its a temporary move down. Could go as low as $650, but its all the way up after that




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Afrikoin
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November 06, 2016, 09:15:21 PM
 #4707

we're going up.

Luc was right about going up *eventually*

but he got the pattern wrong. no giant triangle consolidation this time.

also chessnut seems to agree about the fact we are not going up:

...

This downside move was an impulse and it's broken some important levels. big time sideways should follow, downside risk is higher now

[img width=500]https://www.tradingview.com/x/ubpA7KJV/

Chess nut has also been wrong on some occassions. I like his thread and forecasts. he has a high % call ratio, but has been wrong on some occassions.

This is the whole reason why i started the Nights Watch thread. When you look at all the best/great charts out there, yo get a clear(er) picture of where price is headed.



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sandiman
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November 07, 2016, 09:08:07 AM
 #4708

Not really his EW based prediction though right?

to me it looks like EW, but i am no expert on EW. so maybe i am wrong here.

that's his chart. He's trying to forecast price using a mix of EW and quantitative analysis (on historical volatility)

so, like i said, there are two predictions out there. one says big triangle that reaches well into 2017 and one says we start a nice rally from this point.

just trying to clarify what's the consensus.

You are right, seems that's all what we've got for the moment.

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November 09, 2016, 12:27:51 PM
 #4709

According to MasterLuc this is where we stop and bleed off to approx 580 in early January.  He's been right so many times, if Bitcoin does this Ill be blown away.



Looks like this may be in the works?
Afrikoin
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November 12, 2016, 12:50:10 AM
 #4710

Chess nut has also been wrong on some occassions. I like his thread and forecasts. he has a high % call ratio, but has been wrong on some occassions.

This is the whole reason why i started the Nights Watch thread. When you look at all the best/great charts out there, yo get a clear(er) picture of where price is headed.

"nights watch thread" <- what is that?

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1161207.1280



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Bitcoin0916
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November 14, 2016, 12:00:35 PM
 #4711

Can't waiting for the price are reach $1000. I very sure that this will happen in this year. So, best strategy is buying and hold bitcoin.
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November 14, 2016, 03:15:05 PM
 #4712

Update from the Master? ...  Smiley
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November 15, 2016, 03:06:40 AM
Last edit: November 15, 2016, 03:32:38 AM by STT
 #4713

That triangle is way over reaching on speculating a trend off two points.   I think it must be a declining triangle, constricted gradually into breakout.   No point calling it exactly till its in effect and confirmed the breakout then you can buy the momentum upwards.   Unfortunately its way too common to jump the gun and buy into the triangle hoping its correct and its never confirmed, goes down or sideways

sandiman
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November 15, 2016, 10:42:07 AM
 #4714

That triangle is way over reaching on speculating a trend off two points.   I think it must be a declining triangle, constricted gradually into breakout.   No point calling it exactly till its in effect and confirmed the breakout then you can buy the momentum upwards.   Unfortunately its way too common to jump the gun and buy into the triangle hoping its correct and its never confirmed, goes down or sideways

Please don't decrease the quality of this thread  Smiley
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November 15, 2016, 11:27:37 AM
 #4715

Good evening.

                My presumption because of the result of the US Presidential election is that in this next 4 years, specifically next year, there will be a big blow, a mock blow from who-knows-where and then a big hop. Over the past 3-4 years, China had grown even more. Yes they are the new Super Power(I never heard of them bragging about it though). Chinese players, investors, bankers, etc., will then manipulate the prices. This, together with the new age of robotics(just saw one on the news recently but cant remember the exact date), would be a perfect combination. Imagine them sending their robo-pets to fetch some goods from the market, surely they will not let it carry cold cash.   

               Sorry for those who feel that I am dreaming, I wish I am, Trump as US president is the worst part of this gen. Thank you.
((basically, with the trend, I am feeling of a big slope down, then a wall straight up.))


just a little more to go. . .
darlidada
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November 16, 2016, 01:37:44 PM
 #4716

I invoke the master
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November 16, 2016, 01:44:13 PM
 #4717

I invoke the master

goodbye triangle
darlidada
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November 16, 2016, 02:19:20 PM
 #4718


triangle still valid on US exchanges, technically its a triple top
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November 16, 2016, 02:24:46 PM
 #4719


triangle still valid on US exchanges, technically its a triple top

true, but doesnt matter cause we have basically two predictions from Luc. one says big triangle well into 2017 and one says big move to 1000$+. so whatever happens everybody will be cheering. even if we fall to 450$ you could still argue that its just part of the big triangle. Wink
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November 16, 2016, 03:03:10 PM
 #4720


triangle still valid on US exchanges, technically its a triple top

Actually, imo, triangle has never been valid. Triangles only correct, on low to no volume at all. They don't trend, which is what bitcoin's been doing lately, which is easy to see if you're looking at the volume profiles.
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