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Author Topic: Analysis  (Read 921620 times)
marcus_of_augustus
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September 03, 2016, 09:51:46 PM
 #4601

b is for bitcoin

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September 03, 2016, 10:12:23 PM
 #4602

2 points on a trend isnt any better then guessing really.   Also take the weekly closing price for a graph at least because anyone holding a price contract over the weekend is more of an actual genuine holder and indicator of price direction then trading daily, since we talking dollars also there

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Yabit is a legally constituted Venezuelan company operating under the name of NPIF Inversiones, C.A. We do not establish the bitcoin price, as it is a result of the free market (demand and supply law).

I thought free markets were banned in Venezuela and thats largely why they are in a mess like this.    Oil exports a dangerous crutch knocked out from underneath them more then trigger then the cause, as every country has to adjust at times

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thefiniteidea
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September 08, 2016, 11:53:21 PM
 #4603

$700 for the top of 'b'?

Always have my eye on this thread ;-)

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masterluc
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September 10, 2016, 05:59:16 PM
 #4604

Somewhere between 700 and 780.

Actually here is a nice c&h or h&s bewing drew and it may also shoot up in any time.


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September 10, 2016, 06:07:10 PM
 #4605

We'd look at 900+ then right
jehst
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September 10, 2016, 06:57:07 PM
 #4606

We'd look at 900+ then right

I don't think that $900-999 is going to be a region that we spend much time in

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sandiman
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September 10, 2016, 07:11:59 PM
 #4607

We'd look at 900+ then right

I don't think that $900-999 is going to be a region that we spend much time in

In case of cup and handle or H&S, we'll look much above my friend  Grin

pro tip: look at the distance between the head and the potential neckline  Wink
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September 10, 2016, 10:08:43 PM
 #4608

We'd look at 900+ then right

I don't think that $900-999 is going to be a region that we spend much time in

me neither.

maybe the old ATH, but even the old ATH have never really been a problem to bitcoin.

usually once the bull run has started, it doesn't really stop at anything.
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September 11, 2016, 12:22:50 AM
 #4609

We'd look at 900+ then right

I don't think that $900-999 is going to be a region that we spend much time in

me neither.

maybe the old ATH, but even the old ATH have never really been a problem to bitcoin.

usually once the bull run has started, it doesn't really stop at anything.

fomo is the mofo.
molecular
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September 12, 2016, 03:19:29 PM
 #4610

fomo is the mofo.

fomo is the choochooo, mofo.

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numismatist
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September 12, 2016, 03:27:13 PM
 #4611

fomo is the mofo.

fomo is the choochooo, mofo.


+1

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September 12, 2016, 05:40:27 PM
 #4612

We'd look at 900+ then right

I don't think that $900-999 is going to be a region that we spend much time in

me neither.

maybe the old ATH, but even the old ATH have never really been a problem to bitcoin.

usually once the bull run has started, it doesn't really stop at anything.

Don't forget we must retrace and consolidate a bit to continue our bull run, in order to have a healthy rally.

Quote from:  Satoshi Nakamoto
Feb. 14, 2010: I’m sure that in 20 years there will either be very large transaction volume or no volume.
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September 12, 2016, 11:50:23 PM
Last edit: September 14, 2016, 05:39:14 PM by thefiniteidea
 #4613

This past year's gradual bullish sentiment (and where I think we all know we're headed) got me to thinking of old times when Masterluc said this crazy thing, and it made a lot of people upset...


I thought the end will have more epic start. Third day in a row I wake up, see charts and ask myself "Is this the end?" and third day in a row answer is "Yes".


Had to dig it up... but I remember the exact comment when Masterluc became bearish, almost 3 years ago... 5 days after the ATH made on November 30th, 2013.

I remember because the next projected dates he said were so far away away, and at the time seemed so ridiculous...


Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

But if Masterluc was going to be proven right about the top (which he later was), then I suppose it wasn't such a crazy timeline...

This was followed by an epitaph of the historical first wave...


What exactly do you mean by 'end'? Value getting halved? double digits? pennies?
End of first historical bullish trend 2010-2013.


But it wasn't all bad.

Later on August 19th, 2015, Masterluc had become a bull again...


I analyzed situation and made conclusion. I will not close my long and decide buy every bottom since here. As you remember, I advice it since price reached 270-230 for first timever since ATH. Price is in this range so far with some short deviations.

Repeat half year old post ($230). Price is in safe multi year buy zone. From here to zero. Hehe.


And about 5 days later, the price bottomed out at $200...

and has not touched it since.


Masterluc has done lots of great short-term analysis in-between and since these posts, but I remember these comments being distinctly different as a shift in his long-term sentiment, and ultimately they stuck with me... especially when they were accurately reaffirmed everyday thereafter.


I just wanted to put this all together somewhere for posterity, because it really is quite an impressive series of long term calls. And I'm sure for a lot of us who have been here as long as Masterluc's thread has existed (and his old one too), we know these things... but I guess what I'm trying to say is...

Masterluc has a record of missing long-term high's and lows by roughly 5 days, give or take. So why are we even bothering to listen to this fool?

What a garbage thread.

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wpalczynski
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September 13, 2016, 03:51:07 PM
 #4614

Its pretty amazing how his EW predictions come to fruition, but why?  Why would this pattern apply in a seemingly random fairly large group of traders who dictate the price by their sentiment and actions??

RyNinDaCleM
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September 13, 2016, 04:22:36 PM
 #4615

Its pretty amazing how his EW predictions come to fruition, but why?  Why would this pattern apply in a seemingly random fairly large group of traders who dictate the price by their sentiment and actions??

Yes?

Bavaria
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September 13, 2016, 05:29:15 PM
 #4616



I thought the end will have more epic start. Third day in a row I wake up, see charts and ask myself "Is this the end?" and third day in a row answer is "Yes".

Ah, of course thanks Satoshi and community, but I am still here =) Next entering point for me is in 2016-2017 year.

End of first historicalbullish trend 2010-2013.

That's a pretty good track record.
 
Prepare for 2017......






Masterluc seems to be either a genius or he`s the one who dictates the price movements Wink
gentlemand
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September 13, 2016, 09:29:00 PM
 #4617

This past year's gradual bullish sentiment (and where I think we all know we're headed) got me to thinking of old times when Masterluc said this crazy thing, and it made a lot of people upset...

I love stuff like this. I gave up making calls even in the privacy of my own mind a very long time ago. It must be a fine feeling to have it all pan out as you expect.

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September 14, 2016, 02:10:04 PM
 #4618

Yeah, joining the choir of "luc(if) rules" voices. Been on the edge myself since the double top formed (weird, just notice that's only 2 days ago... feels longer), mainly believing we'll see consolidation rather than a sharp drop. But the combination of my own indicators, bad news, bad forum sentiment and finally, lucif's call made me substantially rearrange my position yesterday, just in time for the big drop.

I still have to say, I'm strongly sceptical about parts of lucif's methodology: EW theory seems a bit too shady for my taste (though I tried wrapping my head around it in the last weeks), and his basic premise that "news follows TA, not the other way around" is something I strongly question.

But all that said, there's no reason to argue with results: no matter how he arrives at them, he has an uncanny ability to call tops (and to a degree, bottoms). I'm glad he's posting here.

P.S. No way we'll see a multi-year bear market. Maybe a shift in the overall exponential trend to a slightly lesser (but still exponential) rise, but I'm convinced within 365 we will see a new ATH.

[Sorry for the OT post in this great thread. Will be the only one.]

Quite embarrassing to read my own posts from back then. In another post around that time, I assigned a "40% chance" to luc's prediction (of the coming year+ bear market), but actually, I didn't really take into account the possibility of it happening until much later.

Lesson learned (I hope).

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September 14, 2016, 02:16:37 PM
 #4619

Don't forget we must retrace and consolidate a bit to continue our bull run, in order to have a healthy rally.
I know that, but how to tell if consolidation is done? What condition should be met exactly before bitcoin price start go higher?

I keep hearing about this 'consolidation' thing a lot but can someone actually explain it to me?
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September 14, 2016, 05:30:35 PM
 #4620

Don't forget we must retrace and consolidate a bit to continue our bull run, in order to have a healthy rally.
I know that, but how to tell if consolidation is done? What condition should be met exactly before bitcoin price start go higher?

I keep hearing about this 'consolidation' thing a lot but can someone actually explain it to me?

During consolidation, the bollinger bands will squeeze very tight. Low volatility.

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