Analysis

[Leon83]

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).

I haven't either. It was an amazing prediction. For whatever reason, he has apparently abandoned it though, and is now predicting a return to the 200-week MA to build out this long term triangle.



I definitely prefer his December 2018 prediction.

Drawing a squeezing wedge on the linear chart on macro level is pretty meaningless in my opinion.

[dragonvslinux]

I think the most relevant point is that the prediction has been very accurate (so far), regardless of the tools he used to make this TA. Sometimes the best analysis are the vague squiggly lines and random arrows pointing up and down - if the price follows that path that this. Kudos to PentarhUdi for getting things right so far, I haven't seen another publication that has been this accurate (regarding the lows, the highs, with the correct time-frame).

I haven't either. It was an amazing prediction. For whatever reason, he has apparently abandoned it though, and is now predicting a return to the 200-week MA to build out this long term triangle.

Oh that's surprising to be honest I haven't reviewed the users TA to see how accurate it is, so I wouldn't put too much merit into another piece of analysis. Unless of course their TA is generally very accurate, or that this starts to become accurate. But by the looks of it, by the time it's accurate it'd be too late as it were (without there being an arrow for price to follow as with the in genius piece of TA). Then again, they predicted a move from $3K to $14K that no-one was expecting either, so who knows.

Either way, I don't like the lines. I'm OK with the resistance trend-line as enough speculators have identified it as relevant (even the bearish Tone agree breaking through would be fully bullish), but the support trend-line with two "sets" of touch-points looks like it's on a pivot form $3K that could be angled in many different ways. Personally, when looking at a longer-term support trend-line, I prefer connecting 2016 & 2019 on a log chart, that is a lot steeper, but I feel holds more relevance. This referenced chart's 2017 support point doesn't even connect with the lows either.

I definitely prefer his December 2018 prediction.

I also prefer accurate TA, the older the better 

Drawing a squeezing wedge on the linear chart on macro level is pretty meaningless in my opinion.

Couldn't agree more to be honest. There are times when linear charts makes sense, macro Weekly/Monthly views aren't those times.
Bookmarked +1.

[cAPSLOCK]

I find it odd that masterluc no longer posts on this forum. TBH I find Enky Nakamura, Josh Olszewicz and John Bollinger more useful to follow at present.

"FlibFlib" and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter also offer very good analysis.

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

I find it odd that masterluc no longer posts on this forum. TBH I find Enky Nakamura, Josh Olszewicz and John Bollinger more useful to follow at present.

"FlibFlib" and "Dave the Wave" on Twitter also offer very good analysis.

Elliott Wave is not that useful for trading cryptos IMO. Too many alternate wave counts. You are better off just waiting for a strong trend, buying on a pullback and using your judgment as a trader on where to set your stop losses and when to take profits. During the last bull run Fibonacci extensions were quite useful in setting profit targets, as was the 3 day RSI. Spend some time learning point and figure charting rather than Elliott Wave you will be rewarded.

Really the simple indicators can be all you need in a strong bull market. Take a look at the weekly BTC/USD Bitstamp chart and put up 50 and 200 simple moving averages. Look at the last bull market. That was a strong bull run and just trading the moving averages you would have gone long at $300 and exited at $9000. Now few expected a blow off top at $19666 but if you also monitored the 3 day RSI you could have held your position until 3 day RSI was over 92 and got out close to the top. You had warning to exit on the following dead cat bounce. Experienced traders went short then.

Again just following weekly 3 day RSI when that indicator dropped below 23 in January 2015 that was a clear signal to start opening longs. Anyone who did has been well rewarded. That ended the bear market. We are currently in a bull market but sentiment right now is neutral. You should have already bought thousands of dollars ago. If you want to go long now just dollar cost average or watch the 3 day RSI and start buying when that indicator is oversold at 30.

Don't follow anyone blindly you will likely get burnt. Learn to analyze markets yourself and make your own trading decisions. Input from other technicians is useful but take responsibility for your own trades. Stay away from day trading because the pros who actually do it for a living will eat you for a light snack. Concentrate on longer time frames. If you are too lazy to do the work just buy and hold.

[Gyrsur]

but Fibonacci retracements do work with Bitcoin. probably also extensions and expansions.

https://forums.babypips.com/t/fibonacci-extension-vs-fibonacci-expansion/128495/7

[BitcoinNewsMagazine]

but Fibonacci retracements do work with Bitcoin.  

Of course, I never implied they did not. I have been using Fibonacci extensions and retracements for many years. They are much more useful than Elliott Wave. That is an example of an indicator that has a good track record with bitcoin, like 3 day RSI. Elliott Wave is dismal for bitcoin. PnF is very good as is Ichimoku.

[exstasie]

It would be an interesting scenario indeed. The max pain scenario. Everybody gets excited about the halving and instead price drops like a rock creating a wave of despair.

I don't think that's the max pain scenario. Too many people are bearish. Too many are saying things like "the halving is already priced in." I've seen a bunch of people claiming the stock-to-flow model has failed too.

People sound just like they did in early 2016. Remember what happened 2 months before the 2016 halving? (Hint: the price doubled!)

Drawing a squeezing wedge on the linear chart on macro level is pretty meaningless in my opinion.

I didn't want to be the one to call that out, but yes. I don't know what he's thinking.

Elliott Wave is not that useful for trading cryptos IMO. Too many alternate wave counts.

This isn't specific to crypto. Multiple alternative wave counts are necessary when analyzing any instrument.

[exstasie]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

[ssmc2]

New post from Masterluc on Tradingview: Short term analysis: ending diagonal (SHORT)

Can't say I agree with him, but it's something to keep in mind.

I assume price traces giant triangle correction since ATH . It is interesting that B-waves inside have impulsive subcounts.

I think that's the first clue that we aren't in a big triangle.....

Yeah,  think I prefer his chart from December 2018 lol

[Asrael999]

Doesn't MasterLuc normally post in Russian?

[Wekkel]

He just seems cautious and does not necessary predict a $6,000 dip.

[dmwardjr]

Here's my OPINION this is a "Bear Trap" and we WILL continue going up:  https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/mP4ggYGh-MESSAGE-2-TO-BEARS-Here-s-SUPPORT-This-is-a-Bear-Trap/

[keystroke]

Another post from masterluc today.

"Everyone is shouting: halving, halving.  And in the comments under my ideas rave about them.  So, a fresh look.  I have the audacity to say that halving, as a scalar event, does not affect the price chart at all.  Two previous halving I experienced and observed.  Generally zero to ground.  Halving points fall into completely random places of different trends.  And they do not cause anything, not even the slightest reaction of the market, despite the general excitement and fundamental nature of the event.

 You know, this is probably a phenomenon even.  But there is an explanation.  Halving is the nature of Bitcoin, a metaphysical phenomenon that creates its essence and the manifestation of which cannot be found on the surface.  Halving is manifested in the fact that bitcoin is growing for a long time.  And in the spring you will not see anything special."

[exstasie]

Doesn't MasterLuc normally post in Russian?

On Telegram, yeah: https://t.me/bitcoin_wanga/48
However, he also posts forecasts on Tradingview (in English): https://www.tradingview.com/u/PentarhUdi/

"Everyone is shouting: halving, halving.  And in the comments under my ideas rave about them.  So, a fresh look.  I have the audacity to say that halving, as a scalar event, does not affect the price chart at all.  Two previous halving I experienced and observed.  Generally zero to ground.  Halving points fall into completely random places of different trends.  And they do not cause anything, not even the slightest reaction of the market, despite the general excitement and fundamental nature of the event."

Thanks for sharing.

I think he's wrong about this. I don't believe markets are efficient at pricing in speculative and psychological events. It's impossible to know that halvings have no effect on price. In fact, the proximity of the August 2012 and June 2016 rallies to halvings suggests the opposite.

[Millionero]

From empirical observation, the big booms exhibit a phase relationship with the halvings.
Cycle frequency, a bit less than four years.
You don't see the halvings causing immediate frenzy.  
Rather, momentum builds abetted by the halving's effects.

[Wekkel]

From empirical observation, the big booms exhibit a phase relationship with the halvings.
Cycle frequency, a bit less than four years.
You don't see the halvings causing immediate frenzy.  
Rather, momentum builds abetted by the halving's effects.

This.

And I can understand the message of Masterluc. Too much hype around the halvening indeed and no directly visible impact on the price in USD. We may as well linger for months on end after the halvening has taken place. Who knows.

[figmentofmyass]

And I can understand the message of Masterluc. Too much hype around the halvening indeed and no directly visible impact on the price in USD.

how could you definitively say there is no visible impact on price? take this bull run off the $6000s, for instance. how do you (and masterluc) know the market isn't being driven up by halving-related hype right now?

[Wekkel]

And I can understand the message of Masterluc. Too much hype around the halvening indeed and no directly visible impact on the price in USD.

how could you definitively say there is no visible impact on price? take this bull run off the $6000s, for instance. how do you (and masterluc) know the market isn't being driven up by halving-related hype right now?

What i mean is that the event itself, the day / the week / the month does not show an immediate impact on the price. If there is an impact, it’s much more indirect. That makes me a bit cautious now that the crowd treats it as a given bullish indicator.

[figmentofmyass]

how could you definitively say there is no visible impact on price? take this bull run off the $6000s, for instance. how do you (and masterluc) know the market isn't being driven up by halving-related hype right now?

What i mean is that the event itself, the day / the week / the month does not show an immediate impact on the price. If there is an impact, it’s much more indirect. That makes me a bit cautious now that the crowd treats it as a given bullish indicator.

if the efficient-market hypothesis has any validity, then the halving should affect prices long before the event itself. the market won't necessarily wait until may 2020 to begin moving.

look at what happened before the july 2016 halving. in may-june 2016, the price went from $440 to $780. was it due to the halving? it's impossible to tell, of course. it could be coincidental.

but it also seems silly to look at that event (and the current bull run from $6.4k to $10.4k) and act like they obviously have no visible effect on price. my gut reaction from looking at the charts is the opposite!

masterluc is drawing a very arbitrary trend line and sort of just deciding the uptrend is over now because of his internal wave b count. yet the wave b he has drawn (and also the larger degree B) are impulses, which he himself admits. it doesn't make any sense. he has a very unorthodox view of elliott wave theory.

this would be another one of those legendary predictions of old if he is proven right.

[exstasie]

What i mean is that the event itself, the day / the week / the month does not show an immediate impact on the price. If there is an impact, it’s much more indirect. That makes me a bit cautious now that the crowd treats it as a given bullish indicator.

Regarding the crowd, I think it's more of a mixed bag. The forum gives a skewed view because of all the sig spammers earning crypto and because, well, it's a Bitcoin forum.

However, like 2016, there are lots of naysayers claiming the halving is already priced in ("that's what the 2019 rally was!"), that the market is topping out, or that the halving itself is bearish:

Examples:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5213304.0
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5224803.msg53813709#msg53813709
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5223403.msg53782886#msg53782886