Analysis

[JayJuanGee]

Also, don't get me wrong regarding any kind of claim that I would be making regarding BTC being able to rise like a phoenix above the ashes.. because I doubt that bitcoin would be able to claim that level of non-correlation when shit is really going down.  So, maybe we do get into questions, too, regarding what level of "shit is really going down" are we into, and what level of incompetency do we presume that status quo interests are going to continue to fuck it up for themselves?

that's what it comes down to. the way i see it, this pandemic-induced downturn is a black swan either way. will it destroy everything in its path like the 2008 crisis? i dunno. it may just be an epic shakeout that delays the bull market by a year or so. we really have no idea. all we can do is guess.

there are plenty of "experts" anticipating doomsday, while others think we are near the peak of supply chain shock and market panic. your guess is as good as mine!

I don't really disagree with anything that you say, except I quibble, a bit, with your "guess" word choice. 

As compared with 2013 through 2016, these days it seems to me that we have a quite a bit more information, and even some more intricate and rigorous BTC price prediction models that use four more years of BTC history, too (including Lindy effect). 

Seems to me, that bitcoin has been built on decently solid foundations, and of course, NOT everything in bitcoin is perfect, but sure as fuck, it continues to have a lot going for it, and there are a lot of really smart people jumping on board to bitcoin, and even trying to criticize bitcoin, while they subsequently end up jumping on-board, because after studying bitcoin, it is realized that there is so damned much about it that remains brilliant and amazing.. and close enough to perfect, without anything that really competes with it in any kind of substantial and meaningful way.

I do believe that we are way too early to be calling the death of BTC, or such level of BTC correlation that we are going to just throw out current BTC price prediction models..

if this crash represents another 1929 (like great depression level shit) that's the kind of black swan that IMO could easily break the existing prediction models. i'm not throwing them out yet, i'm just open to that kind of possibility.

I agree with you that we cannot rule out any scenario, including going to zero scenarios, Armageddon-like (which seem to be extremely unlikely, even in the seemingly dire circumstances in which the macro environment seems to be presenting, currently).   So, yeah, quite too early to determine, and seems that BTC price dynamics would need to be out of line with stock to flow (and perhaps other models) for a decent amount of time (and perhaps quantity too) before even coming close to discarding their predictive value.  Even currently, as I type, the current BTC price does not seem to be very far out of line with any of the current BTC price prediction models.

[Wind_FURY]

Chandler Guo is doing too. Hahaha.

I believe the current pretend-Bitcoin-is-dead-sentiment, but actually buying the dip to HODL while no one is looking, will be 2020's post-halving meme.

https://twitter.com/ChandlerGuo/status/1239410288840982528

[exstasie]

Chandler Guo is doing too. Hahaha.

I believe the current pretend-Bitcoin-is-dead-sentiment, but actually buying the dip to HODL while no one is looking, will be 2020's post-halving meme.

https://twitter.com/ChandlerGuo/status/1239410288840982528

The smart money is probably doing that, which is why I'm extremely skeptical of Peter Brandt's sub-$1,000 prediction. He's the type to FUD his Twitter followers while buying the dip.

For the most part, I think the panic and capitulation sentiment was real. It's a big part of the reason BTC is probably bottoming out. When sentiment gets overwhelmingly bearish, it indicates everyone who was going to sell has already sold. It's all these trapped sellers and shorters from the $3,000s-$5,000s who are now chasing the price up, and who will continue driving the market higher if a new bull market emerges.

[cAPSLOCK]

Chandler Guo is doing too. Hahaha.

I believe the current pretend-Bitcoin-is-dead-sentiment, but actually buying the dip to HODL while no one is looking, will be 2020's post-halving meme.

https://twitter.com/ChandlerGuo/status/1239410288840982528

The smart money is probably doing that, which is why I'm extremely skeptical of Peter Brandt's sub-$1,000 prediction. He's the type to FUD his Twitter followers while buying the dip.

For the most part, I think the panic and capitulation sentiment was real. It's a big part of the reason BTC is probably bottoming out. When sentiment gets overwhelmingly bearish, it indicates everyone who was going to sell has already sold. It's all these trapped sellers and shorters from the $3,000s-$5,000s who are now chasing the price up, and who will continue driving the market higher if a new bull market emerges.

I completely agree that the capitulation is real.  I see LONG time bulls musing the death of the corn.

The way I see it the pummeling the price took was mostly institutional investors running for cover at the beginning of the big meltdown.  They had been in playing with derivatives and no doubt manipulating the price along the way... but most of them fled to cash at the beginning of this thing.  Who was left?  The people who have been here for a while... some of them questioning the future, sure, and some selling along with wall street players.  But that is why we saw the big dip, and then that is why it was over.  Trading 24/7... no circuit breakers. A totally free market asset.  What we saw was not colored by anything.  It was a real as it can get.  As I think is what we are seeing now.

And let's face it.  Bitcoin is still a binary bet. 

Bitcoin was the culmination of a lot of tech and a small group of folks had been trying to design something that would do what it did for a while.  The cypherpunks and cryptographers were (are) not exactly monolithic in their politics or worldview.  But I do not believe the message baked into the genesis block was chosen randomly.  The headline was tucked into block #1 and will go down in history as a part of the definition of what Satoshi was trying to do.

If it works?  If it continues to work?  This is the time it was made for.

It's do or die.  Binary bet.  Plenty of ways it can fail, for sure.  And it will be a loss the world may never entirely understand if it does fail.

I think we are about to see the next stage of it's evolution and existence though... Either that or it's demise.  It's not going to just reamin some obscure little digital plaything.

[birr]

If enough miners keep on mining, Bitcoin will survive.
The only way Bitcoin can fail completely is through a collapse of the mining network until it's too small to survive attack.
Right now the price is below mining cost, and pretty soon the price will be less than half the mining cost, unless the price goes up substantially and soon.
That's the only danger I can see.  Not saying Bitcoin will necessarily go into a death spin unless the price goes up, but that's the possible failure scenario:  too many miners leaving the network because it just doesn't pay.
Good times probably ahead so long as we make it through this rough patch.
I suppose I agree with cAPSLOCK that btc is a binary bet, much as I hate to say it.

[gentlemand]

I suppose I agree with cAPSLOCK that btc is a binary bet, much as I hate to say it.

I think that's probably what has attracted most people to it, even if they haven't voiced it to themselves. Satoshi knew it too.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=48.msg329#msg329

Bitcoin was born during turmoil. It will come of age during and after the current shitshow.

Having said that it would be fascinating to see what a Bitcoin that was chugging along happily and obscurely in ten years from now would look like. Would it be abandoned rapidly, develop a die hard audience that lasted forever but didn't grow or have a second wind a few more years down the line? We'll likely never know. It's death or glory.

[dragonvslinux]

Chandler Guo is doing too. Hahaha.

I believe the current pretend-Bitcoin-is-dead-sentiment, but actually buying the dip to HODL while no one is looking, will be 2020's post-halving meme.

https://twitter.com/ChandlerGuo/status/1239410288840982528

This is probably the scariest Bitcoin chart I've ever seen 

[Wekkel]

Then just think of it as a prediction of the just invented telephone, plane or Internet. Is this chart still serious to you or downward stupid

Keep your mind focused.

[exstasie]

If enough miners keep on mining, Bitcoin will survive.
The only way Bitcoin can fail completely is through a collapse of the mining network until it's too small to survive attack.
Right now the price is below mining cost, and pretty soon the price will be less than half the mining cost, unless the price goes up substantially and soon.
That's the only danger I can see.  Not saying Bitcoin will necessarily go into a death spin unless the price goes up, but that's the possible failure scenario:  too many miners leaving the network because it just doesn't pay.

As long as the mining exodus is somewhat orderly (so the network can reach the next difficulty adjustment) things should be fine. I remember a few years ago Luke Dashjr or someone like that was working on emergency hard fork code in case the hash rate fell too quickly. Hopefully we never get to the point where that is necessary.

Chandler Guo is doing too. Hahaha.

I believe the current pretend-Bitcoin-is-dead-sentiment, but actually buying the dip to HODL while no one is looking, will be 2020's post-halving meme.

https://twitter.com/ChandlerGuo/status/1239410288840982528

This is probably the scariest Bitcoin chart I've ever seen 

Do you actually take it seriously?

[dragonvslinux]

Chandler Guo is doing too. Hahaha.

I believe the current pretend-Bitcoin-is-dead-sentiment, but actually buying the dip to HODL while no one is looking, will be 2020's post-halving meme.

https://twitter.com/ChandlerGuo/status/1239410288840982528

This is probably the scariest Bitcoin chart I've ever seen 

Do you actually take it seriously?

Not really, not enough touch-points. I'm tempted to try re-draw it to see if the 2013 highs can included, but the idea scares me  I've always been a long-term believer that Bitcoin is going to $100K or $0 next, obviously I believe $100K is more likely, but ultimately anything is possible right now, and an economic crisis should answer this soon enough. The relevance of the curve is also low, the confirmation for me would be a break of around $150 (the midline), a bit late to sell then imo, though at the same time, if it went this low, it'd probably be on the basis of going to 0.

I really hope no newbies see this chart though!

[exstasie]

It seems a big move is coming soonish.

Yep, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands are getting real tight, coiling up for a big move. Be ready for a headfake before the real breakout goes in the opposite direction.

Bullish case:
https://twitter.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1243243705873694721

Bearish case:
https://twitter.com/CarpeNoctom/status/1243245259494248448

[chunglam]

New comments from MasterLuc:
Mar 20: This should bounce up now from weekly sma 200 (~5200) up to daily sma 200 (~8500). This is normal in both bearish and bullish counts.
I personally do not like tails left below triangle by panic sell. This could be either real bear trap before my green counts or bear hints before red counts.
Red and green counts now have equal probability for me.
I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months.
Apt 3: Bounce up is on track. However daily ma200 is on 8000 now.
Giant triangle approaches resolution soon. Price will either break up ma200 and upper triangle line or bounce down from ma200 and go to hell

[exstasie]

New comments from MasterLuc:
Mar 20: This should bounce up now from weekly sma 200 (~5200) up to daily sma 200 (~8500). This is normal in both bearish and bullish counts.
I personally do not like tails left below triangle by panic sell. This could be either real bear trap before my green counts or bear hints before red counts.
Red and green counts now have equal probability for me.
I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months.
Apt 3: Bounce up is on track. However daily ma200 is on 8000 now.
Giant triangle approaches resolution soon. Price will either break up ma200 and upper triangle line or bounce down from ma200 and go to hell

Masterluc sure loves his 200 MA.

The 200-day MA only provided temporary resistance in October 2019 and this past January before significant moves above it. I'm not sure if bouncing off it automatically means we are hell bound. I guess that would mean $1,800?

I have been speculating for a while about a failure off the 0.618 and 200-day MA ~$8K. Honestly though, the price action has been very choppy and unpredictable for the entire month of April. A lot is probably riding on what the stock market does given the recent correlation.

[drays]

New comments from MasterLuc:
Mar 20: This should bounce up now from weekly sma 200 (~5200) up to daily sma 200 (~8500). This is normal in both bearish and bullish counts.
I personally do not like tails left below triangle by panic sell. This could be either real bear trap before my green counts or bear hints before red counts.
Red and green counts now have equal probability for me.
I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months.
Apt 3: Bounce up is on track. However daily ma200 is on 8000 now.
Giant triangle approaches resolution soon. Price will either break up ma200 and upper triangle line or bounce down from ma200 and go to hell

Masterluc sure loves his 200 MA.

The 200-day MA only provided temporary resistance in October 2019 and this past January before significant moves above it. I'm not sure if bouncing off it automatically means we are hell bound. I guess that would mean $1,800?

I have been speculating for a while about a failure off the 0.618 and 200-day MA ~$8K. Honestly though, the price action has been very choppy and unpredictable for the entire month of April. A lot is probably riding on what the stock market does given the recent correlation.

This correlation to the stock market is highly worrisome and bothers me a lot. It is kinda ironical, and this shouldn't have been that way if Bitcoin followed its own independent path, but alas this correlation definitely exists. Probably during last bull-run crypto attracted too much of the wrong type of people - the ones which don't value ideas behind the Bitcoin, but see it only as just another investment/trading/speculation instrument.

Now, ranting aside, I would expect the stock market to crash pretty soon, or at least suffer a lot, for a long time. Does it mean Bitcoin has to do the same, just because it correlates to stocks..? I am trying to find reasons why it shouldn't, but the only one coming to my mind is - as everyone expects Bitcoin to follow stocks, maybe it wouldn't follow them just because of that? How probable is for the Bitcoin to do the opposite of what the public expects, and don't crash with the stocks, when they do crash?

[gentlemand]

How probably is for the Bitcoin to do the opposite of what the public expects, and don't crash with the stocks, when they do crash?

We're in a phase where the world is looking for confidence, and there isn't a lot to be found. I see no reason why BTC would be any more confident in the face of a global shit than stocks. This isn't one economy wrecking itself, it's everyone everywhere. That means pensions faltering, jobs going, taxes rising.

I've little doubt they will try absolutely everything to keep the illusion of solid markets going but it's hard to tell whether we're past the worst or it has only just begun.

[exstasie]

How probably is for the Bitcoin to do the opposite of what the public expects, and don't crash with the stocks, when they do crash?

We're in a phase where the world is looking for confidence, and there isn't a lot to be found. I see no reason why BTC would be any more confident in the face of a global shit than stocks. This isn't one economy wrecking itself, it's everyone everywhere. That means pensions faltering, jobs going, taxes rising.

Yep, nothing really escapes big economic contractions. Some assets fare better than others, but ultimately they all face the same downward pressures, especially in this dollar debt-inflated economy.

Now, ranting aside, I would expect the stock market to crash pretty soon, or at least suffer a lot, for a long time. Does it mean Bitcoin has to do the same, just because it correlates to stocks..? I am trying to find reasons why it shouldn't, but the only one coming to my mind is - as everyone expects Bitcoin to follow stocks, maybe it wouldn't follow them just because of that?

BTC will probably diverge bullishly at some point, but my guess is it won't be until after the mid-term economic picture becomes clearer. A V-shaped recovery is out of the question now, but depression and stagflation are both on the table. Each would have very different outcomes for BTC.

[kellrobinson]

Imagine Bitcoin is an albatross, flying across the ocean.
A jetliner (the stock market) plunges into the sea nearby.
Of course the albatross will wobble in its flight.

But that doesn't mean the jetliner and the albatross are correlated.
It just means they're in the same world.
And an albatross can fly around the world without landing.

[Wind_FURY]

New comments from MasterLuc:
Mar 20: This should bounce up now from weekly sma 200 (~5200) up to daily sma 200 (~8500). This is normal in both bearish and bullish counts.
I personally do not like tails left below triangle by panic sell. This could be either real bear trap before my green counts or bear hints before red counts.
Red and green counts now have equal probability for me.
I remind, red will just delay big bull run by one-two years in my vision. While green one may start bull run in few months.
Apt 3: Bounce up is on track. However daily ma200 is on 8000 now.
Giant triangle approaches resolution soon. Price will either break up ma200 and upper triangle line or bounce down from ma200 and go to hell

Masterluc sure loves his 200 MA.

The 200-day MA only provided temporary resistance in October 2019 and this past January before significant moves above it. I'm not sure if bouncing off it automatically means we are hell bound. I guess that would mean $1,800?

I have been speculating for a while about a failure off the 0.618 and 200-day MA ~$8K. Honestly though, the price action has been very choppy and unpredictable for the entire month of April. A lot is probably riding on what the stock market does given the recent correlation.

Are you talking about the daily chart or the weekly chart? Because in the weekly chart, Bitcoin's price has never stayed long below the 200-day SMA.

Dips near, or below 200-day SMA = Buy the dip, and HODL.

[drays]

Are you talking about the daily chart or the weekly chart? Because in the weekly chart, Bitcoin's price has never stayed long below the 200-day SMA.

Dips near, or below 200-day SMA = Buy the dip, and HODL.

I suppose you mean the 200-week SMA above..?

[exstasie]

The 200-day MA only provided temporary resistance in October 2019 and this past January before significant moves above it. I'm not sure if bouncing off it automatically means we are hell bound. I guess that would mean $1,800?

I have been speculating for a while about a failure off the 0.618 and 200-day MA ~$8K. Honestly though, the price action has been very choppy and unpredictable for the entire month of April. A lot is probably riding on what the stock market does given the recent correlation.

Are you talking about the daily chart or the weekly chart?

Discussions above moving averages can be confusing. That's why I always say things like "200-day" or "200-week" to distinguish between time frames.

Because in the weekly chart, Bitcoin's price has never stayed long below the 200-day SMA.

I bet big on the 200-week MA holding in 2018 and this past March. Definitely historical "buy the dip" moments. The 200-day MA is a different story. Lots of fluctuation above and below. We spent over a year below it after the 2017 bubble popped.