RoadStress
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July 06, 2014, 07:47:32 AM |
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Just like how the neptune was a good deal in November? Or like how the monarch was a great deal in August? Or hashfast? Or blackarrow? Or cointerra? Judging by other's failure has nothing to do with the future. You chose to take the unnecessary risk of preordering hardware 5 months away. Historically there has never been a preorder which ended up cheaper than in stock hardware. Maybe this is your first time being suckered in to preorders, but please don't encourage noobs to make the same mistake.
Wouldn't you agree the best decision at the moment would have been to buy a few bitmain s1s? Just about all S1's ordered before april have reached a positive ROI in btc and barely depreciated in value. Tell me when did the S1s reached positive ROI and how much does one S1 earn per month? As for the depreciation you are misleading again. I see that 2 S1 are being sold for ~0.5 BTC. I don't see that much retention in value. The same way that nobody can predict the bitcoin difficulty we can't predict the exchange rate. Hoping/waiting for the exchange rate to increase seems too risky for me. I always make my decisions taking into consideration a fast increase in exchange rate, but also a stagnation for 6+ months.
So why gamble on the difficulty/exchange rate 6 months from now when you don't have to? If you expected a fast increase in exchange rate you should have just bought btc. Read my reply again. I said I'm prepared for both situations. I don't expect anything, I'm just trying to be as balanced as possible. I hate to brag but I am not at a loss from my investments at havelock. Yes AM has tanked but I have done fairly well speculating with the difficulty derivative.
Will you be so kind to share how many havelock investments have you done besides AM and the difficulty derivative? Isn't the derivative a more financial instrument than a security investment? No you are trying to sell people BS and lies which I just don't buy. If the sp30 is such a great machine then spondoolies would have absolutely no problem selling it from stock like every Chinese manufacturer does.
I'm not trying to sell people BS and lies. I'm just recommending what I think it's the best miner. I did that before having and affiliate link. If you were unlucky enough to preorder an august batch sp30 directly from the website in april you paid ~26 BTC for one ~6TH or $2.8/gh.. jimmothy's math: 26BTC*450$=~12000$/5400GH= 2.8$/Gh <-- BIG MISINFORMATION, but actually it's 2.22$/Gh (for 5.4Th/s) and with the speed improve is down to 2$/Gh. You know we are at $630/btc right? If the sp30 is only 5400gh that would be $3/gh. That makes even the bfl monarchs look like a good deal. So you are telling me that I paid for my March order 3$/Gh just because bitcoin is at $630 now? Next month when it will be at $1000 you will tell me that I paid 4.3$/Gh and so on. I paid 2$/Gh in March! Calculating with today's price is simply stupid and so obvious bad intended. As previously said judging by looking back is easy Acting while looking into the future is the hard part. The same analogy can be made for your 0 dividend AM shares. Unfortunately I don't know how many bitcoins you have invested into AM, but feel free to multiply them with 630$ and let me know how long will it take to get that amount back with your 0 dividends. And your math sucks again. At $630/btc you come up with 2.7$/Gh, not 2.8$/Gh.
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BTCguide
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July 06, 2014, 10:24:49 AM |
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In my opinion there are just 2 big theoretical differences between Cex.io and the proposal of PetaMine:
Hosting costs:
Cex.io = 0.26$/month/GH
PetaMine = 0.16$/month/GH
Share price:
Cex.io = 0.007
PetaMine = 0.0025
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cryptoconomist
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July 06, 2014, 12:26:02 PM |
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... I'm guessing we are going quickly back to 0.06/0.07 ... Quoted for future entertainment. Bumped for quicker immediate entertainment. let's see what happen after the vote compare to cex.io but yes it seems my guess was way over optimistic ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif)
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joele
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July 06, 2014, 04:30:48 PM |
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... I'm guessing we are going quickly back to 0.06/0.07 ... Quoted for future entertainment. Bumped for quicker immediate entertainment. let's see what happen after the vote compare to cex.io but yes it seems my guess was way over optimistic ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif) I'm guessing the same way 0.06-0.08, (after split) some traders will compare the price to cex.io and also network hashrate is lower these days, if this will continue estimated next difficulty will be less than the current.
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Pentax
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July 06, 2014, 04:49:00 PM |
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So, if the latest vote passes, I'm guessing that this now means that there will be no future increases in total hashing power? Does this mean that Peta is now equivalent to CEX in terms of operation?
Does anyone know if CryptX is planning on adding any more capacity in future and creating new POs? If so, I imagine that the price per GH & therefore per share will decrease accordingly.
This is certainly an interesting development which potentially changes the game significantly.
it would be huge help to this process if Cryptx laid out it's plans for the future. people need to have some idea of what they are investing in if they are going to actually invest
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jimmothy
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July 06, 2014, 07:20:26 PM |
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Just like how the neptune was a good deal in November? Or like how the monarch was a great deal in August? Or hashfast? Or blackarrow? Or cointerra? Judging by other's failure has nothing to do with the future. So the first 10 companies to go with preorders showed the community exactly how preorders fuck over everyone involved but with spongebobtech its totally different right? You chose to take the unnecessary risk of preordering hardware 5 months away. Historically there has never been a preorder which ended up cheaper than in stock hardware. Maybe this is your first time being suckered in to preorders, but please don't encourage noobs to make the same mistake.
Wouldn't you agree the best decision at the moment would have been to buy a few bitmain s1s? Just about all S1's ordered before april have reached a positive ROI in btc and barely depreciated in value. Tell me when did the S1s reached positive ROI and how much does one S1 earn per month? As for the depreciation you are misleading again. I see that 2 S1 are being sold for ~0.5 BTC. I don't see that much retention in value. ANY S1 ordered before MAY with reasonable electricity costs (~0.15/kwh) has reached a positive ROI by today. 0.25 btc per S1 is still $150 or ~$50 less than it was sold for new in april. How many sp10 bought in april have made a positive ROI in btc? I hate to brag but I am not at a loss from my investments at havelock. Yes AM has tanked but I have done fairly well speculating with the difficulty derivative.
Will you be so kind to share how many havelock investments have you done besides AM and the difficulty derivative? Isn't the derivative a more financial instrument than a security investment? Yes the derivative is more of a game/gambling but I encourage everyone with an accurate magic crystal ball to give it a shot. I've never invested in anything other than AM as it's the only semi-legit offering IMO (could be better of course). I did throw away some change (~0.01btc) due to the neobee failure but I didn't really think/care about that. If you were unlucky enough to preorder an august batch sp30 directly from the website in april you paid ~26 BTC for one ~6TH or $2.8/gh.. jimmothy's math: 26BTC*450$=~12000$/5400GH= 2.8$/Gh <-- BIG MISINFORMATION, but actually it's 2.22$/Gh (for 5.4Th/s) and with the speed improve is down to 2$/Gh. You know we are at $630/btc right? If the sp30 is only 5400gh that would be $3/gh. That makes even the bfl monarchs look like a good deal. So you are telling me that I paid for my March order 3$/Gh just because bitcoin is at $630 now? Next month when it will be at $1000 you will tell me that I paid 4.3$/Gh and so on. I paid 2$/Gh in March! Calculating with today's price is simply stupid and so obvious bad intended. As previously said judging by looking back is easy Acting while looking into the future is the hard part. The same analogy can be made for your 0 dividend AM shares. Unfortunately I don't know how many bitcoins you have invested into AM, but feel free to multiply them with 630$ and let me know how long will it take to get that amount back with your 0 dividends. And your math sucks again. At $630/btc you come up with 2.7$/Gh, not 2.8$/Gh. No you paid ~$2/gh for your march order because btc was around $630 then. If next month btc is at $1000 then yes, you will have massively overpaid. I'm glad you admit that looking in to the future is hard, so how can you possibly justify gambling on preorders? BTW about AM, the company has already ROI'd in only a month so I would say they are doing quite well.
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jjdub7
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July 06, 2014, 07:39:39 PM |
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... I'm guessing we are going quickly back to 0.06/0.07 ... Quoted for future entertainment. Bumped for quicker immediate entertainment. let's see what happen after the vote compare to cex.io but yes it seems my guess was way over optimistic ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif) I'm guessing the same way 0.06-0.08, (after split) some traders will compare the price to cex.io and also network hashrate is lower these days, if this will continue estimated next difficulty will be less than the current. Bitmain is shipping batch 1 of the S3 this week. The current projections for next period are very misleading for calculating lifetime ROI.
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joele
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July 07, 2014, 02:35:47 AM Last edit: July 07, 2014, 02:46:05 AM by joele |
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... I'm guessing we are going quickly back to 0.06/0.07 ... Quoted for future entertainment. Bumped for quicker immediate entertainment. let's see what happen after the vote compare to cex.io but yes it seems my guess was way over optimistic ![Sad](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/sad.gif) I'm guessing the same way 0.06-0.08, (after split) some traders will compare the price to cex.io and also network hashrate is lower these days, if this will continue estimated next difficulty will be less than the current. Bitmain is shipping batch 1 of the S3 this week. The current projections for next period are very misleading for calculating lifetime ROI. There are no long term profit in any mining offers, dividend is the bait, traders can only profit in short term trading.
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RoadStress
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July 07, 2014, 05:19:29 AM |
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So the first 10 companies to go with preorders showed the community exactly how preorders fuck over everyone involved but with spongebobtech its totally different right?
I wasn't aware that there were 10 companies that produced chips which failed. I wouldn't count 3rd party PCB developers on this because SP-Tech is directly producing the chips so they have their whole process in hand. Second you need to look at who ran the companies that failed. BFL is run by a convicted felon, HashFail's CEO was a shady guy, BA team is unknown, Avalon is a student who got rich overnight and got blinded by his greed and Cointerra just used the US legal system to screw their customers. Have I missed any company? None of these companies are backed by 2 large VC companies who had many other successful projects so you are again comparing apples with oranges. All of the failed companies had their fail on their agenda from the start. ANY S1 ordered before MAY with reasonable electricity costs (~0.15/kwh) has reached a positive ROI by today.
0.25 btc per S1 is still $150 or ~$50 less than it was sold for new in april.
How many sp10 bought in april have made a positive ROI in btc?
So right now an S1 is making ~60-70$/month (and shrinking) after ROI. Great investment! The SP10s may not have reached ROI, but they will sure make more than 60$ per month after they do it which means a higher profit overall versus the S1. Yes the derivative is more of a game/gambling but I encourage everyone with an accurate magic crystal ball to give it a shot.
I've never invested in anything other than AM as it's the only semi-legit offering IMO (could be better of course). I did throw away some change (~0.01btc) due to the neobee failure but I didn't really think/care about that.
So your success in the derivative area isn't because you picked a good company, it's more of a gambling. You only picked 1 successful venture until now by picking AM shares. So you only risked once for the long term. I'm on my third successful pick with the SP10. No you paid ~$2/gh for your march order because btc was around $630 then. If next month btc is at $1000 then yes, you will have massively overpaid. BTW about AM, the company has already ROI'd in only a month so I would say they are doing quite well.
The argument isn't valid because right now I can't repeat the same purchase that I made back in March because of the non-availability. I made the purchase then in order to get a better shipping date. I won't be able to order an SP30 next month with August delivery. As for AM it's the same S1 situation again. You are happy with a short ROI, but right now you aren't getting anything and the bitcoin train is on fast forward. It won't take long until you will AM will be left behind. I'm glad you admit that looking in to the future is hard, so how can you possibly justify gambling on preorders?
The same way you justify your derivative.
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jjdub7
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July 07, 2014, 05:34:18 AM |
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Yes the derivative is more of a game/gambling but I encourage everyone with an accurate magic crystal ball to give it a shot.
I've never invested in anything other than AM as it's the only semi-legit offering IMO (could be better of course). I did throw away some change (~0.01btc) due to the neobee failure but I didn't really think/care about that.
So your success in the derivative area isn't because you picked a good company, it's more of a gambling. You only picked 1 successful venture until now by picking AM shares. So you only risked once for the long term. I'm on my third successful pick with the SP10. For the record, I think he's talking about twentyseventy's BD derivative, which is a mining bond tied to a shorting instrument. Incidentally, it isn't technically a zero-sum game through time, as new entrants (or existing players) purchasing B.EXCH, the price-regulating asset which is a bundled set of the mining bond (B.MINE) and the short (B.SELL), add to the net value of the asset set (paid out to B.SELL holders at each difficulty bump). The rules are set by the underlying math, so its not really a company. Granted, you don't have to "gamble" to make money on it - you just have to be able to anticipate when new mining tech is going to hit the market, ship, and start hashing.
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jimmothy
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 07, 2014, 05:51:48 AM |
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So the first 10 companies to go with preorders showed the community exactly how preorders fuck over everyone involved but with spongebobtech its totally different right?
I wasn't aware that there were 10 companies that produced chips which failed. I wouldn't count 3rd party PCB developers on this because SP-Tech is directly producing the chips so they have their whole process in hand. Second you need to look at who ran the companies that failed. BFL is run by a convicted felon, HashFail's CEO was a shady guy, BA team is unknown, Avalon is a student who got rich overnight and got blinded by his greed and Cointerra just used the US legal system to screw their customers. Have I missed any company? None of these companies are backed by 2 large VC companies who had many other successful projects so you are again comparing apples with oranges. All of the failed companies had their fail on their agenda from the start. Spondoolies may be the most "legit" company but they are not immune to the unpredictable variables involved in making an asic. Just like every other company they have no idea exactly how the chip will perform until they have it in hand. They also have no idea if it will work right away or take some troubleshooting. They don't even know if they will get the chips on time. July only has about 3 weeks left and afaik they don't even have chips. They leaves basically zero time for fuckups or testing. As for the companies there are: BFL, HF, CT, BA, KNC, bitmine, avalon, terrahash, AMT, VMC, and probably some others I've missed. No you paid ~$2/gh for your march order because btc was around $630 then. If next month btc is at $1000 then yes, you will have massively overpaid. BTW about AM, the company has already ROI'd in only a month so I would say they are doing quite well.
The argument isn't valid because right now I can't repeat the same purchase that I made back in March because of the non-availability. I made the purchase then in order to get a better shipping date. I won't be able to order an SP30 next month with August delivery. You can make the exact same purchase by buying 11 bitmain s3's. In fact you would have saved ~$1/gh. You could have ordered an SP30 in july/august if they sold from stock. Too bad they decided to take tips from BFL and go with overpriced preorders. I'm glad you admit that looking in to the future is hard, so how can you possibly justify gambling on preorders?
The same way you justify your derivative. Yes but with the difficulty derivative I find it extremely difficult to predict the next difficulty a week away. Even predicting the next difficulty ~3 days away is not easy. So why even attempt to predict the btc exchange rate/difficulty 5+ months away?
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fonsie
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July 07, 2014, 05:33:49 PM |
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Is there some way to check the results of surveymonkey against what cryptx has to say? Or is cryptx the only one who gets the final result and we should just believe what they have to say?
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I decided to no longer use a signature, because people were trolling me about it.
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Korbman
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July 07, 2014, 05:42:46 PM |
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Is there some way to check the results of surveymonkey against what cryptx has to say? Or is cryptx the only one who gets the final result and we should just believe what they have to say?
I used SurveyMonkey all the time for shareholder voting, and yes, the final results are only available to the issuer (though the Pro version may have more options). To get around this, I put all responses into a Google doc, obfuscated the email addresses, and shared the results. People who voted could still figure out their own email and verify their answer is accurately noted. Seems in this case we just get to take Cryptx's word for it...which is obviously unacceptable.
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fonsie
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 07, 2014, 05:47:29 PM |
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Indeed, just what I was thinking, even the voting is rigged.
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I decided to no longer use a signature, because people were trolling me about it.
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zevtiefenbach
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July 07, 2014, 06:03:03 PM |
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Indeed, just what I was thinking, even the voting is rigged.
there's quite a difference between the vote being "rigged" and the vote not being transparent. instead of making accusations, we could just ask that crytpx make the results public.
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fonsie
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![](https://bitcointalk.org/Themes/custom1/images/post/xx.gif) |
July 07, 2014, 06:13:44 PM |
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Perhaps they should keep a vote on this...
Until proven otherwise, the voting is rigged/not to be trusted.
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I decided to no longer use a signature, because people were trolling me about it.
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Swordsoffreedom
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Leading Crypto Sports Betting & Casino Platform
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July 07, 2014, 11:32:11 PM |
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Is there some way to check the results of surveymonkey against what cryptx has to say? Or is cryptx the only one who gets the final result and we should just believe what they have to say?
I used SurveyMonkey all the time for shareholder voting, and yes, the final results are only available to the issuer (though the Pro version may have more options). To get around this, I put all responses into a Google doc, obfuscated the email addresses, and shared the results. People who voted could still figure out their own email and verify their answer is accurately noted. Seems in this case we just get to take Cryptx's word for it...which is obviously unacceptable. True Cryptx Should publish a list on google docs with obfuscated e-mails as well that show how people voted It's all about transparency
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..Stake.com.. | | | ▄████████████████████████████████████▄ ██ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██ ▄████▄ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██████████ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ██████ ██ ██████████ ██ ██ ██████████ ██ ▀██▀ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██ ██████ ██ █████ ███ ██████ ██ ████▄ ██ ██ █████ ███ ████ ████ █████ ███ ████████ ██ ████ ████ ██████████ ████ ████ ████▀ ██ ██████████ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████ ██ ██ ▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀ ██ ▀█████████▀ ▄████████████▄ ▀█████████▀ ▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄███ ██ ██ ███▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄ ██████████████████████████████████████████ | | | | | | ▄▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▀▄ █ ▄▀▄ █▀▀█▀▄▄ █ █▀█ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▄██▄ █ ▌ █ █ ▄██████▄ █ ▌ ▐▌ █ ██████████ █ ▐ █ █ ▐██████████▌ █ ▐ ▐▌ █ ▀▀██████▀▀ █ ▌ █ █ ▄▄▄██▄▄▄ █ ▌▐▌ █ █▐ █ █ █▐▐▌ █ █▐█ ▀▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▄▀█ | | | | | | ▄▄█████████▄▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀█████▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄█▀ ▐█▌ ▀█▄ ██ ▐█▌ ██ ████▄ ▄█████▄ ▄████ ████████▄███████████▄████████ ███▀ █████████████ ▀███ ██ ███████████ ██ ▀█▄ █████████ ▄█▀ ▀█▄ ▄██▀▀▀▀▀▀▀██▄ ▄▄▄█▀ ▀███████ ███████▀ ▀█████▄ ▄█████▀ ▀▀▀███▄▄▄███▀▀▀ | | | ..PLAY NOW.. |
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RoadStress
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July 08, 2014, 05:34:54 AM |
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Spondoolies may be the most "legit" company but they are not immune to the unpredictable variables involved in making an asic. Just like every other company they have no idea exactly how the chip will perform until they have it in hand. They also have no idea if it will work right away or take some troubleshooting. They don't even know if they will get the chips on time.
July only has about 3 weeks left and afaik they don't even have chips. They leaves basically zero time for fuckups or testing.
As for the companies there are: BFL, HF, CT, BA, KNC, bitmine, avalon, terrahash, AMT, VMC, and probably some others I've missed. First of all the chips will arrive after 20 July so there is still time. BFL, HF, BA and Avalon were mentioned. VMC was an obvious scam right from the start and Ken has a long history of conning people. Bitmine is doing okish. As for AMT and TerraHash they aren't chip manufacturers, they are just third party PCB assemblers so they were not worth mentioning. None of these companies were funded by any VC with direct statements for backing them up. I know that Cointerra received some kind of Angel funding, but none of them (except aerobatic) showed some kind of public support for them. Maybe because they knew that they will fail and didn't want to mud their name. Now tell me how do these companies compare with SP-Tech regarding their background and their intentions. I don't find any similarities. You can make the exact same purchase by buying 11 bitmain s3's. In fact you would have saved ~$1/gh. I'm ok with paying extra in order to avoid unnecessarily headaches. One box, 2 cables and I'm hashing in 2 minutes plus no reselling hassle. I would like to be busy planning the future, not dealing with present avoidable issues. Yes but with the difficulty derivative I find it extremely difficult to predict the next difficulty a week away. Even predicting the next difficulty ~3 days away is not easy.
You don't have to predict difficulty for the next 3 days. You need to predict difficulty for every change. So why even attempt to predict the btc exchange rate/difficulty 5+ months away? Because some people find it doable.
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crino
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July 08, 2014, 07:46:04 AM |
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You can change, remove, edit, etc. the votes in Surveymonkey. That kind of sites is to vote who pays the beer between friends, not to vote the whole strategy of a project where we've invested a lot ( or not) of money.
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nwfella
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Well hello there!
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July 08, 2014, 08:27:02 PM |
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You can change, remove, edit, etc. the votes in Surveymonkey. That kind of sites is to vote who pays the beer between friends, not to vote the whole strategy of a project where we've invested a lot ( or not) of money.
Well shit!! In that case freaking CryptX had better be paying for a round or ten since he's apparently the only one making anything on this (that isn't a skilled trader that is)
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¯¯̿̿¯̿̿'̿̿̿̿̿̿̿'̿̿'̿̿̿̿̿'̿̿̿)͇̿̿)̿̿̿̿ '̿̿̿̿̿̿\̵͇̿̿\=(•̪̀●́)=o/̵͇̿̿/'̿̿ ̿ ̿̿
Gimme the crypto!!
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