GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[jl2012]

OK, ignore the "disastrous performance" if you will.  There is still the fees, failed promises, and (apparently) having to watch the share value drop without being able to take the money out.  Now, remind me, what were the advantages of buying fund shares instead of buying bitcoins directly?

Your mother or grandmother can own Bitcoin without needing to read the forums for three weeks to figure out security.
Not everyone who invests in Bitcoin has a horizon of 60 days to get rich.

Well, seen from the outside, SMBIT is starting to look more risky than buying bitcoins at Bitstamp and keeping them there.  At least, Bitstamp has no lock-in period and has a handy open market in-house.

Investors who bought SMBIT shares in September 2013, at 13 $/share, and are firm believers in the long-range success of BTC, may not be bothered by those problems.  But I am trying to imagine someone who invested in January at 90$, could have liquidated in July at 60$, but has been forced to hold and now sees the shares worth only 30$.  I can't believe that all of those January investors are hold-at-any-cost types. 

I wonder if these "problems with the SEC" are blocking withdrawals also from the other funds (PBP, Exante, etc.)

Some institutional investors may not be allowed to buy and store real bitcoin, just like they may not be allowed to buy and store real gold. If they want to invest in gold, they have to do it through "experts", like GLD.

For the "SEC blocking withdrawals" rumor, I'm not saying it's impossible but it has never been reported by any credible source.

[JorgeStolfi]

For the "SEC blocking withdrawals" rumor, I'm not saying it's impossible but it has never been reported by any credible source.

I find it hard to believe too, but there have been two confirmations, no denials, and @jamesg claims to have seen their newsletter.

Perhaps I should ask Barry on twitter.

[skivrmt]

For the "SEC blocking withdrawals" rumor, I'm not saying it's impossible but it has never been reported by any credible source.

I find it hard to believe too, but there have been two confirmations, no denials, and @jamesg claims to have seen their newsletter.

Perhaps I should ask Barry on twitter.

Why would anyone lie about this?  It doesn't "benefit" anyone per say.  It is what it is.  As another poster said, its not a letter you can copy and paste.  No one has denied it for the simple reason it is true.

[BitAddict]

So, if they're blocked that means if SEC don't approve the fund, then when withdrawals will be restored there probably would be a huge cashout from disappointed investors.

Sadly, but the Bitcoin ETFs are becoming "too big to fail". Imagine also the Winklevoss trying to dump their coins if they get rejected too.

[jl2012]

For the "SEC blocking withdrawals" rumor, I'm not saying it's impossible but it has never been reported by any credible source.

I find it hard to believe too, but there have been two confirmations, no denials, and @jamesg claims to have seen their newsletter.

Perhaps I should ask Barry on twitter.

Why would anyone lie about this?  It doesn't "benefit" anyone per say.  It is what it is.  As another poster said, its not a letter you can copy and paste.  No one has denied it for the simple reason it is true.

If it is true, why isn't it reported by any credible source, such as Bloomberg, CNN, or even any bitcoin news portal like Coindesk? This rumor has been here for months.

[ensurance982]

Huh, so what are the odds of these rumors being true? I mean this would be disastrous for the COIN-ETF, as well. But my gut feeling tells me that there are quite some FUD rumors out there lanced in order to push the price to a new long-term low. People are eager to see the real bottom and start the next bull-run.

[cr1776]

For the "SEC blocking withdrawals" rumor, I'm not saying it's impossible but it has never been reported by any credible source.

I find it hard to believe too, but there have been two confirmations, no denials, and @jamesg claims to have seen their newsletter.

Perhaps I should ask Barry on twitter.

Why would anyone lie about this?  It doesn't "benefit" anyone per say.  It is what it is.  As another poster said, its not a letter you can copy and paste.  No one has denied it for the simple reason it is true.

It benefits all those people trying to spread FUD.
 

[BitAddict]

Huh, so what are the odds of these rumors being true? I mean this would be disastrous for the COIN-ETF, as well. But my gut feeling tells me that there are quite some FUD rumors out there lanced in order to push the price to a new long-term low. People are eager to see the real bottom and start the next bull-run.

Quite de opposite, this rumors keep the people calm because they know this fund can't dump any time soon.
So if it's FUD is to try to stop all this bleeding.

What people is not thinking is that this will hurt bitcoin even more in case it gets rejected.

[ensurance982]

Huh, so what are the odds of these rumors being true? I mean this would be disastrous for the COIN-ETF, as well. But my gut feeling tells me that there are quite some FUD rumors out there lanced in order to push the price to a new long-term low. People are eager to see the real bottom and start the next bull-run.

Quite de opposite, this rumors keep the people calm because they know this fund can't dump any time soon.
So if it's FUD is to try to stop all this bleeding.

What people is not thinking is that this will hurt bitcoin even more in case it gets rejected.

Yeah, if it's true and in case it also affects COIN, there will be some BTC hitting the exchanges/market. Also, people who bough in anticipation of the ETF will dump their holdings. I don't know what to make of it. FUD until proven true, in my books...

[N12]

No one has denied it for the simple reason it is true.

True til proven FUD IMO for this reason.

[JorgeStolfi]

Huh, so what are the odds of these rumors being true? I mean this would be disastrous for the COIN-ETF, as well. But my gut feeling tells me that there are quite some FUD rumors out there lanced in order to push the price to a new long-term low. People are eager to see the real bottom and start the next bull-run.

I am puzzled: if it is a rumor, someone should have warned or queried SMBIT, and they should have promptly denied it.  Such a rumor would scare away any potential client who heard it.

Also, if liquidations were still possible, I would expect to see at least some net sales of BTC once in a while, given that the share value has been on a mostly downward trend since June, and the general mood is quite negative.  The last drop that was clearly not rounding or accounting error or was on 2014-09-03 (-1439   BTC).  And the significant inputs that we have seen since then appear to come from just one entity.  It is hard to see that as "business as usual".

[jamesg]

And the significant inputs that we have seen since then appear to come from just one entity. 

How exactly can you tell that the recent purchases in the BIT were from the same entity? I ask because I'd like to have use of that crystal ball.

[Wandererfromthenorth]

Look at it. A nice kick in the nuts to all the fund investors that can't even withdraw anything lol

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/551533923663355904

[jamesg]

Look at it. A nice kick in the nuts to all the fund investors that can't even withdraw anything lol

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/551533923663355904

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/551553942745006080

Patience holding will pay off. Mark my words.

[minerpumpkin]

Look at it. A nice kick in the nuts to all the fund investors that can't even withdraw anything lol

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/551533923663355904

https://twitter.com/barrysilbert/status/551553942745006080

Patience holding will pay off. Mark my words.

Okay can someone translate that for people not entirely familiar with that? Is that just some sort of conversion of the fund to being able to withdrawn in another way or what is going on? Does this mean everything is working as expected and there's to forced stop of withdrawals?
It's funny, maybe they're effectively saving their clients from losing a ton of money these bloody days.

[jamesg]

Okay can someone translate that for people not entirely familiar with that?

Sure. I'd be happy to help.

Is that just some sort of conversion of the fund to being able to withdrawn in another way or what is going on? Does this mean everything is working as expected and there's to forced stop of withdrawals?

OTCQX is the largest "over the counter" market for trading securities.

When the BIT transfers to OTCQX, anyone with a brokerage account will be able to purchase shares of the BIT. Current account holders will also be able to sell the shares on the open market.

The main point is that the flood gates of institutional / brokerage investors will be opened.

[gog1]

Then I guess it becomes a close end fund instead of traditional fund - people who wants to cash out needs to sell it on secondary market

[jamesg]

Then I guess it becomes a close end fund instead of traditional fund - people who wants to cash out needs to sell it on secondary market

If you mean by "close end fund" that they cannot take $$$ to create new BIT shares, you'd be (i'm 98% sure) incorrect.

[JorgeStolfi]

And the significant inputs that we have seen since then appear to come from just one entity. 

How exactly can you tell that the recent purchases in the BIT were from the same entity? I ask because I'd like to have use of that crystal ball.

It is only a guess, because there were 4 consecutive purchases with nearly the same amount (6300 -- 7000 BTC), then a buy of ~500 BTC, and nothing in the preceding and following weeks.

[JorgeStolfi]

Then I guess it becomes a close end fund instead of traditional fund - people who wants to cash out needs to sell it on secondary market

If you mean by "close end fund" that they cannot take $$$ to create new BIT shares, you'd be (i'm 98% sure) incorrect.

I guess that he means that there will be no more liquidations (redemptions): the only way to get $$$ out will be to sell your shares at OTCQX to someone who would rather buy them instead of BTC.