GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[JorgeStolfi]

Any change since 2015-01-13?  Thanks...

[1714842968]

1714842968

[bobabouey2]

Doesn't look like it.  I get 135,461 vs last on Jan 13 of 135,351.

[jl2012]

update. nothing interesting since last update

[tabnloz]

English is not my native language, so help me out: what, exactly, do you mean by "delighted to stay the course," and how has it been substantially different from "enduring a [~70%] loss"?
Thx.

Ah, now it makes sense.  "Delighted to stay the course" means that I have content with my current position and have no plans to make any big changes.  I will stay on the course/path I am already on.  I will not change to a different path.

It would be disingenuous to ever delight in enduring a loss.  Anyone claiming to be delighted with a loss would be insincere.

One can endure a loss while still being delighted to stay the course.

Aha, "delighted" means "content."  Tricky language, your English.

Quality trolling.

[jl2012]

Update. Growing very slowly

[pinky]

Update. Growing very slowly

"Smart money"   

[JorgeStolfi]

Here is an update of the plot of @jl2012's data that I posted last April:


[ Blame the forum admins if the image shows truncated; click on it for the full-size version. ]

The first four plots are taken from the posted tables.  

The fifth plot ("Est. Accum. Investment", purple) was computed by me: it is the estimated net dollar amount that was invested by clients, assuming that each change from one day to the next was either all investment or (rarely) all liquidation.  With this assumption, since the foundation until today, clients appear to have have invested ~68 M USD in the fund, while the value of all the bitcoins held by it is ~30 M USD.

Note the four large investments last November, corresponding to 6000-7000 BTC each.

[2_Thumbs_Up]

Here is an update of the plot of @jl2012's data that I posted last April:


[ Blame the forum admins if the image shows truncated; click on it for the full-size version. ]

The first four plots are taken from the posted tables.  

The fifth plot ("Est. Accum. Investment", purple) was computed by me: it is the estimated net dollar amount that was invested by clients, assuming that each change from one day to the next was either all investment or (rarely) all liquidation.  With this assumption, since the foundation until today, clients appear to have have invested ~68 M USD in the fund, while the value of all the bitcoins held by it is ~30 M USD.

Note the four large investments last November, corresponding to 6000-7000 BTC each.

So that's an average investment of about 136.000 USD/day since inception. While an inflation rate of 3600 BTC/day corresponds to 792.000 USD/day at todays prices.

So if their historical trend continues, it means that Secondmarket can be "expected" to buy about 17% of the daily minted coins.

Of course, your graph seems to suggest that the investment demand was a lot higher the first few months, and seems to have been fairly constant on average since about 2014. If I disregard the 2013 data I get an expected investment rate of about 10% of minted coins at todays prices.

I was just looking at the plots in your graph though, but I shouldn't be off by that much.

[JorgeStolfi]

So that's an average investment of about 136.000 USD/day since inception. While an inflation rate of 3600 BTC/day corresponds to 792.000 USD/day at todays prices. [ ... ] I was just looking at the plots in your graph though, but I shouldn't be off by that much.

No need to read the graphs for that: the number of coins that they held and bought, day by day, was tabulated by @jl2012.  See page 1 of this thread.  Only the last plot, the Est. Accum. Investment, is not in the table; but it is easily computed from it.

[2_Thumbs_Up]

So that's an average investment of about 136.000 USD/day since inception. While an inflation rate of 3600 BTC/day corresponds to 792.000 USD/day at todays prices. [ ... ] I was just looking at the plots in your graph though, but I shouldn't be off by that much.

No need to read the graphs for that: the number of coins that they held and bought, day by day, was tabulated by @jl2012.  See page 1 of this thread.  Only the last plot, the Est. Accum. Investment, is not in the table; but it is easily computed from it.

I was a bit unclear. I was really only reading from the graphs for your "Estimated Accumulated Investment" stat when I wanted to disregard the 2013 data that didn't really seem representative of the current market.

My estimate was that the point for January 1st 2014 had about 34 million in accumulated USD investment. And that should be close enough for my calculations.

[bclcjunkie]

looks more like a ticking time bomb to me...  sooner or later...

taken from their disclaimer page, i'd love to get more insight on what exactly they mean by those statements:
The BIT and its managers or advisors may rely on the trading expertise and experience of third-party managers or advisors, the identity of which may not be fully disclosed to investors.
The BIT may involve a complex tax structure, which should be reviewed carefully, and may involve structures or strategies that may cause delays in important tax information being sent to investors.
The BIT’s fees and expenses−which may be substantial regardless of any positive return− will offset the BIT’s trading profits.
The BIT and its managers/advisors may be subject to various conflicts of interest.

Update. Growing very slowly

"Smart money"   

[jl2012]

Update. I missed a few days but there was no movement anyway

Also thanks for the 0.16354143BTC or 40USD donation!

[uvt9]

No major activity from SecondMarket during last 3 months. Even these big guys feeling bearish ?

[bobabouey2]

No major activity from SecondMarket during last 3 months. Even these big guys feeling bearish ?

Or could be no-one wants to invest in a fund that doesn't currently permit redemptions.

And, with things like new Coinbase exchange, easier to take large positions directly.

[JorgeStolfi]

No major activity from SecondMarket during last 3 months. Even these big guys feeling bearish ?

Or could be no-one wants to invest in a fund that doesn't currently permit redemptions.

Will redemptions resume once shares are listed at OTCQX?  Or will clients have to look for Greater Fools in order to get their money back?

Can anyone guessxplain why redemptions *had* to be suspended while negotiating the OTCQX listing?

[phoenix1]

No major activity from SecondMarket during last 3 months. Even these big guys feeling bearish ?

Or could be no-one wants to invest in a fund that doesn't currently permit redemptions.

Will redemptions resume once shares are listed at OTCQX?  Or will clients have to look for Greater Fools in order to get their money back?

Can anyone guessxplain why redemptions *had* to be suspended while negotiating the OTCQX listing?

Maybe so that Shillbert could play with the coins himself ??
Is there any kind of solid proof that he would not be able to do this ? IDK what kind of records they produce, but 100k coins would sure be fun to play the market with 

[gentlemand]

No major activity from SecondMarket during last 3 months. Even these big guys feeling bearish ?

Or could be no-one wants to invest in a fund that doesn't currently permit redemptions.

Will redemptions resume once shares are listed at OTCQX?  Or will clients have to look for Greater Fools in order to get their money back?

Can anyone guessxplain why redemptions *had* to be suspended while negotiating the OTCQX listing?

Maybe so that Shillbert could play with the coins himself ??
Is there any kind of solid proof that he would not be able to do this ? IDK what kind of records they produce, but 100k coins would sure be fun to play the market with 

It was forced on them by the SEC I think until their ETF is approved or disapproved. Seems a little unfair on their unwitting investors.

[HarmonLi]

Not much going on, true. But I also believe it's even incredible that there's more money going in when people aren't able to cash-out. Do you think people may be more tempted to buy on Coinbase or future ETFs, maybe?

[phoenix1]

It was forced on them by the SEC I think until their ETF is approved or disapproved. Seems a little unfair on their unwitting investors.

Is there anything to back this up? It seems like a very unusual request for the SEC to lock investors into a trust. Is there a precedent? IDK.
Just speculating and adding a dose of 'tongue-in-cheek' cynicism as the whole thing seems highly unusual to me...

Yes, I am a bit biased - I think the fact that he was openly laughing on Twitter about the market crashing, while his investors were unable to cash out, was extremely  unprofessional at the very least, and I would not trust him with a $1 of my money. It also looked very much like he was on 'the inside' re the Coinbase exchange launch too ...

[JorgeStolfi]

Can anyone guessxplain why redemptions *had* to be suspended while negotiating the OTCQX listing?

It was forced on them by the SEC I think until their ETF is approved or disapproved. Seems a little unfair on their unwitting investors.

I cannot understand the logic either. 

IIRC, that information was confirmed by two or three clients who claimed to have got that information from SMBIT, but could not say more because of non-disclosure agreements.  Barry confirmed on Twitter that redemptions are suspended while they are waiting for OTCQX, but did not say whether it was by order of the SEC or not.

If anything, it would make sense for the SEC to prohibit selling shares while waiting for approval, not redeeming them.

Did SMBIT at least promise to resume redemptions after the shares are listed on OTCQX?  Does the contract allow them to cancel redemptions permanently?