GBTC Bitcoin Investment Trust Observer

[JorgeStolfi]

GLD gained over 400% after approval and trading began, and this is after gold had already traded for centuries.

Yes, gold had a speculative bubble after GLD was approved -- thanks in part, it seems, to an intensive FUD-based marketing campaign about the impending collapse of everything else, a la Max Keyser and Zerohedge.  But the bubble has already deflated 30%, which must have ruined many people who believed those "specialists" and did not realize that the price was holding itself by its own bootstraps.

I understand that, in the moral value system of the financial industry, anything that may result in fat profits for smart and/or lucky speculators is by definition "good".  Well, sorry, I am not of that religion myself.

[NUFCrichard]

And GLD (like gold) lost 1/3 of its value after it was approved by the SEC.  Would that fact influence SEC's decision about COIN?

You have eaten too many FUD sandwiches.  GLD gained over 400% after approval and trading began, and this is after gold had already traded for centuries.

It is amazing that a new way to invest in Gold would make a 400% change in either direction.
I have been quite agnostic about the ETF coming online, I thought that it would make little difference that people have yet another way to invest in Bitcoin.

I now see that may well be wrong, it will be interesting with 401ks, as that is a lot of money sloshing around in an ATH stock market with bonds yielding almost nothing, it could really flood in.

Interesting times ahead.

[HeliKopterBen]

GLD gained over 400% after approval and trading began, and this is after gold had already traded for centuries.

Yes, gold had a speculative bubble after GLD was approved -- thanks in part, it seems, to an intensive FUD-based marketing campaign about the impending collapse of everything else, a la Max Keyser and Zerohedge.  But the bubble has already deflated 30%, which must have ruined many people who believed those "specialists" and did not realize that the price was holding itself by its own bootstraps.

I understand that, in the moral value system of the financial industry, anything that may result in fat profits for smart and/or lucky speculators is by definition "good".  Well, sorry, I am not of that religion myself.

So GLD has fallen 30% from its all time high, NOT from the time it was approved and began trading.  Those are two completely different points in time.

Anyway, gold gained over 400% after GLD began trading because it could finally work somewhat as a store of value in a digital world, but it doesn't solve the problem of third party risk and GLD can't be used as a currency, so it still doesn't work very well.

But the bubble has already deflated 30%, which must have ruined many people

The Euro has lost over 20% of its value in just the past year.  Has that ruined many people?

[jehst]

Before gold's 10 year bull market, it had a 20+ year bear market. I don't think the ETF caused the bull market. It triggered what was primed to happen. Gold was severely undervalued since the 1980s.

The same thing may happen with bitcoin and the Winklevoss ETF (which has a tighter, less-limited relationship with other exchanges).

[JorgeStolfi]

So GLD has fallen 30% from its all time high, NOT from the time it was approved and began trading.  Those are two completely different points in time.

I did not mean to say that it devalued 30% from the value it had at the time of approval, athough my use of "after it was approved" could be read that way.  Sorry for that.

Anyway, gold gained over 400% after GLD began trading because it could finally work somewhat as a store of value in a digital world, but it doesn't solve the problem of third party risk and GLD can't be used as a currency, so it still doesn't work very well.

And it did not work well as a store of value, either.  That was my point.

But the [ gold ] bubble has already deflated 30%, which must have ruined many people

The Euro has lost over 20% of its value in just the past year.  Has that ruined many people?

It would have been a severe hit to anyone who invested in euros; but no sane investor should invest in a currency. 

The drop may cause hardship to those who have pensions or salaries fixed in euros; but it will take some time for the exchange rate drop to be translated into a drop of local purchasing power.

While the price is above the  hard floor, GLD and COIN will be ultimately zero-sum games.  The losses suffered by those who bought too high are not just "acceptable collateral damage", but the very reason for the existence of those funds: because the profits of lucky speculators can only come from those losses. 

[criptix]

[...]
The losses suffered by those who bought too high are not just "acceptable collateral damage", but the very reason for the existence of those funds: because the profits of lucky speculators can only come from those losses. 

Not nessecary, assuming that bitcoin will be a true competition or successor for the traditional banking system the profit will arise from a much lower transaction cost.
Also i dont believe Bitcoin will stay static like now - i'm pretty sure it can/will evolve to a plattform which enables you to do a lot more things than just sending money (i.e. smart contracts etc.).

[gotmilk_]

Looks like Barry talked about it at InsideBitcoins.

@barrysilbert says trading of $GBTC should start today or tomorrow at @InsideBitcoins #BitcoinConf #bitcoin

[jehst]

Looks like Barry talked about it at InsideBitcoins.

@barrysilbert says trading of $GBTC should start today or tomorrow at @InsideBitcoins #BitcoinConf #bitcoin

And you believe that?

[Alley]

Looks like Barry talked about it at InsideBitcoins.

@barrysilbert says trading of $GBTC should start today or tomorrow at @InsideBitcoins #BitcoinConf #bitcoin

And you believe that?

Well one of these times he will have to be right.

[gotmilk_]

Looks like Barry talked about it at InsideBitcoins.

@barrysilbert says trading of $GBTC should start today or tomorrow at @InsideBitcoins #BitcoinConf #bitcoin

And you believe that?

It is not what I believe or not... it is about what he said. Sure thing is he can place few bids/ask by himself.

Also it matches right with this:

based on what you read / your understanding of the documents,  what do you expect turn around time to be?

They don't indicate timeframes per se but I am guessing it might take 5 business days or even more until I can actually post a sell.  I did not see any obvious ways to take advantage of the techniques to speed things up, e.g. pay for wire transfers, etc. 

[jehst]

Looks like Barry talked about it at InsideBitcoins.

@barrysilbert says trading of $GBTC should start today or tomorrow at @InsideBitcoins #BitcoinConf #bitcoin

And you believe that?

It is not what I believe or not... it is about what he said. Sure thing is he can place few bids/ask by himself.

Also it matches right with this:

based on what you read / your understanding of the documents,  what do you expect turn around time to be?

They don't indicate timeframes per se but I am guessing it might take 5 business days or even more until I can actually post a sell.  I did not see any obvious ways to take advantage of the techniques to speed things up, e.g. pay for wire transfers, etc. 

5 business days or more from April 27 sounds like Monday March 3rd.

[phoenix1]

Looks like Barry talked about it at InsideBitcoins.

@barrysilbert says trading of $GBTC should start today or tomorrow at @InsideBitcoins #BitcoinConf #bitcoin

Is it now time to change 'in two weeks™" to "today or tomorrow™"  

[greenlion]

It would be useful to know what percentage of requests for ETFs are denied by the SEC.  Their approval is not a mere formality, and COIN surely is not the only wannabe ETF with heavyweight attorneys.  I gather that it is not a good sign that COIN has been sitting on SEC's desks for ~2 years, and already went through 5 amended re-filings.

I doubt that loading up in bitcoin would improve the image of any investment fund.  Wall Street is not very fond of instruments that lose value every quarter for five consecutive quarters, and whose Captains of Industry cannot even explain why the price is now 220, much less why it should rise again in the future.  "Because Wall Street will buy lots of it" is not a convincing argument to Wall Street, I suspect.

What What What What What evidence do you have What What

Like, for example, actually reading the 5th amended COIN filing?

What is the purpose of using the phrase "Captains of industry" other than as a pejorative to advance nothing but innuendo?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzmzQja7a2M

It's kind of hilarious that you know absolutely fuckall about any of this, and this is the immature way you react when challenged to provide any substantiation of anything you're saying whatsoever.

[fonzie]

I´m betting 100$ bucks that you will never see a winkli COIN ETF listed on nasdaq. Barrys pink sheets penny stocks, with not a single trade so far, was the maximum BTC can reach in the world of real money. Have fun on BTC-E and China in the meanwhile. 

[Kupsi]

Barrys pink sheets penny stocks, with not a single trade so far, was the maximum BTC can reach in the world of real money.

You didn't get the memo?

http://www.coindesk.com/swedens-nasdaq-exchange-approves-bitcoin-based-etn/

[ensurance982]

I´m betting 100$ bucks that you will never see a winkli COIN ETF listed on nasdaq. Barrys pink sheets penny stocks, with not a single trade so far, was the maximum BTC can reach in the world of real money. Have fun on BTC-E and China in the meanwhile. 

Well, how are they supposed to trade if the transfer of the shares hasn't even been completed!? You can't really go and blame that on GBTC, at best you can blame the old financial systems everyone here is complaining about!

[coinableS]

I´m betting 100$ bucks that you will never see a winkli COIN ETF listed on nasdaq. Barrys pink sheets penny stocks, with not a single trade so far, was the maximum BTC can reach in the world of real money. Have fun on BTC-E and China in the meanwhile. 

That's a bad bet. Since you said "never", if someone takes the bet the only possible outcome is no one wins or you losing. You should put a deadline, like you will not see the winki ETF in the next 2 years or whatever that way you actually give yourself a possibility of winning.

[Cconvert2G36]

I´m betting 100$ bucks that you will never see a winkli COIN ETF listed on nasdaq. Barrys pink sheets penny stocks, with not a single trade so far, was the maximum BTC can reach in the world of real money. Have fun on BTC-E and China in the meanwhile.  

I like how bears have to talk smack about good news, as bad news has been a little light lately.

I have my doubts about COIN ever getting past the watchers of the SEC gate. Winklevii strategy keeps being: if this, then that, if that... With the first step being reliant on a bitlicense. I wish them the best, and they certainly have the money to hire the right people, but I don't consider them a factor so far (other than that 1% stake).

Barry on the other hand, seems to know exactly what he's doing. The 12 month lockout is the loophole he used to get a pink sheet listing on the trust. And now "Authorized Participants" will be interacting with the market in actual bitcoins, to arbitrage out the difference in values between the shares and the asset. He "rebranded" his trading/broker-dealer crew into Genesis Trading, not sure what to expect from that at this point.

The swedish ETN came out of left field to me. Connected to the friendly KnC aircraft hangar crew? I guess there's some sense in that for them. Hard to call it bad news. Nice precedent set when it included a green light from Finansinspektionen, the swedish financial regulator. Nasdaq Nordic serves markets in Helsinki, Copenhagen, Stockholm, Iceland, Riga, Tallinn and Vilnius.

There will probably be a chance to short on an overreaction to GBTC kicking off, but the thought being net short right now is terrifying to me.    

[jehst]

There's an update. What Barry meant was that GBTC could start trading today or tomorrow, not "should."

https://twitter.com/InsideBitcoins/status/593566295658000384

I'm going to trust what the accredited investor guy in this thread says when he estimates 5+ business days, not Barry shooting his mouth off. That means we should expect trading on Monday or later.

[marcus_of_augustus]

There's an update. What Barry meant was that GBTC could start trading today or tomorrow, not "should."

https://twitter.com/InsideBitcoins/status/593566295658000384

I'm going to trust what the accredited investor guy in this thread says when he estimates 5+ business days, not Barry shooting his mouth off. That means we should expect trading on Monday or later.

Yes, on some monday gbtc will trade .... recloses the one open eye.