rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[SlipperySlope]

Thanks for the info, SlipperySlope.  Is the main benefit of publishing through degruyter.com that the you can leverage their website for dissemination of the papers?  I wonder what the politics are with a publisher like Elsevier for a touchy subject like bitcoin.  Perhaps it may even be preferable to publish independently under the Bitcoin Foundation brand (I don't expect there would be demand or a need for a print edition).  A lot to brainstorm about.

Yes, the new model for academic journals is open access. Online is much less expensive and generally more useful for consumers. I do not see a necessity to involve the Bitcoin Foundation. I believe that such a journal should encompass any cryptocurrency, which might be a conflict of interest with regard to the Bitcoin Foundation - or at least outside their focus.

Suppose we start a new thread in the Economics sub forum as this discussion is off topic here and may be deleted anyway by the moderator.

[1714186080]

1714186080

[chriswilmer]

I have a feeling there are more PhDs around here than are letting on…

I assume there are plenty... but if you are uncertain, you can count at least one PhD Bitcoiner right here

Incidentally, I was part of an effort of starting a journal that would be published by Elsevier... I was kind of dismayed by how restrictive it is. Academic journal publishers want to be indexed by Thomson Reuters, and that forces them to conform to fairly exacting standards (page limits, ratios of peer-reviewed to non peer-reviewed content, etc.). Probably not a big deal, but it would be a lot easier to start outside of the traditional academic publishing bureaucracy.

[Bitcopia]

I happen to be the treasurer of an unrelated academic society that has an open-access peer-reviewed online journal. We grant immediate free access to the public and charge authors 100 USD per accepted submission. The publisher is http://www.degruyter.com/ (http://www.degruyter.com/).

Thanks for the info, SlipperySlope.  Is the main benefit of publishing through degruyter.com that the you can leverage their website for dissemination of the papers?  I wonder what the politics are with a publisher like Elsevier for a touchy subject like bitcoin.  Perhaps it may even be preferable to publish independently under the Bitcoin Foundation brand (I don't expect there would be demand or a need for a print edition).  A lot to brainstorm about.

I lack a PhD, but helped found an academic society. Perhaps we need an international Cryptocurrency Society for academics, that would hold an annual conference and publish the journal. For this to be accepted we need academics with doctorate degrees in charge.

I have a feeling there are more PhDs around here than are letting on…

Bitcoin should require a PhD of its own.

Also, props on the correlation between Bitcoin and Metcalfe's law. As simple as the concept is, I was unaware.

[Peter R]

There could well be a disconnect from Metcalfe's Law beyond four more years. In say 8 more years, when the quantity of Bitcoin transactions exceed the current quantity of bank card transactions, I find the predicted bitcoin price value of 57 billion USD per bitcoin implausible.

Lol, I was doing the same math earlier today while jogging.  

I came to a similar conclusion: we may see up to ~2 more years of growth following Metcalfe's law, putting us at a Metcalfe Value near $50,000 / coin and near 1% market saturation.  At some point we must diverge from V~N² growth, otherwise the price projections get ridiculous like you just pointed out.      

Metcalfe's Law is based upon the common sense notion that adding nodes to an economic network adds value in proportion to the quantity of other nodes that can be reached. So perhaps at some point the Bitcoin economy develops small world effects in which clusters of nodes are well connected, but otherwise nodes are not as well connected universally. By well connected, I mean economically visible and useful. For example, small world effects are present in the world's email network due to incompatible natural languages.

That's a good point about small-world effects.  I guess we'd expect a transition to a linear V~N model if this becomes dominant.  Interesting times…

Agree to move discussion regarding J Bitcoin to another thread outside of Speculation sub-forum.  I don't think I'll start that thread tonight.  J Bitcoin was a group idea, precipitated by Chris's comment about publishing my "Metcalfe Value" observation.  Anyone is free to run with the ball...

[Peter R]

...it would be a lot easier to start outside of the traditional academic publishing bureaucracy.

Glad to hear you say that as it would be my preference as well.  It fits better with the bitcoin spirit too, I think. 

[cAPSLOCK]

I have a feeling there are more PhDs around here than are letting on…

I'd say there are a few around.  Some of them prefer to be counted among the chattel though.

[Siegfried]

I have a feeling there are more PhDs around here than are letting on…

I'd say there are a few around.  Some of them prefer to be counted among the chattel though.

And a few who would have been PhDs but discovered Bitcoin and decided that it would be a better focus of their efforts than academia.

[creekbore]

I have a feeling there are more PhDs around here than are letting on…

I assume there are plenty... but if you are uncertain, you can count at least one PhD Bitcoiner right here

Incidentally, I was part of an effort of starting a journal that would be published by Elsevier... I was kind of dismayed by how restrictive it is. Academic journal publishers want to be indexed by Thomson Reuters, and that forces them to conform to fairly exacting standards (page limits, ratios of peer-reviewed to non peer-reviewed content, etc.). Probably not a big deal, but it would be a lot easier to start outside of the traditional academic publishing bureaucracy.

I've done quite a bit of publishing work within academia and would make a couple of points: standards can be exacting but more important is the process of peer-review (and the subsequent questions of who does it and why); lead times are much longer than people envisage and in the fast moving world of crypto this would be an issue; you don't need a Phd to submit or be published in any academic journal although the discipline of gaining one helps with the rigour required.

[ErisDiscordia]

Seriously... let's make J Bitcoin happen.

(sounds like something the Bitcoin Foundation might give a seed grant to support)

No, don't involve the Bitcoin Foundation. This needs to be crowdsourced via Bitcoin. But great idea, I'm all for it and pledge financial support.

[RAJSALLIN]

Fantastic work gentlemen. This adds not only to this thread but to the community as a whole.

[bluemoon]

Seriously... let's make J Bitcoin happen.

(sounds like something the Bitcoin Foundation might give a seed grant to support)

I'm on board.  I think we should gauge community interest over the next while and discuss the logistics of how this could best be accomplished.  I like your idea of approaching the Bitcoin Foundation for a seed grant--supporting an academic journal would shine a positive light on them too.    

Not much money is needed to start an online open-access journal. I believe the main effort will be to find qualified and motivated academics to edit the journal. They could well be young post-docs.

I wonder if the University of Nicosia in Cyprus might be interested? They are starting a Masters in Digital Currency soon.

[dnaleor]

This would make for a great academic paper!

I'm starting to think there is a lot of low-hanging fruit that would make interesting research papers.  We need to found J Bitcoin.  This forum is useful for brainstorming and vetting ideas, but I think a lot of good work gets lost and forgotten in the noise.  It would be useful to publish highly-polished peer-reviewed manuscripts in an archival format accessible to everyone.

Yeah, I've been pestering my academic colleagues in economics (I am myself a prof. of chemical engineering) to publish a paper that addresses something to do with Bitcoin... but they either laugh or take the idea seriously, but the serious ideas they will consider is how to prove that Bitcoin is a bubble

*sigh*

I am doing my thesis about Bitcoin and considerig including this stuff

[hdbuck]

the whole world is a bubble

[wachtwoord]

This would make for a great academic paper!

I'm starting to think there is a lot of low-hanging fruit that would make interesting research papers.  We need to found J Bitcoin.  This forum is useful for brainstorming and vetting ideas, but I think a lot of good work gets lost and forgotten in the noise.  It would be useful to publish highly-polished peer-reviewed manuscripts in an archival format accessible to everyone.

Yeah, I've been pestering my academic colleagues in economics (I am myself a prof. of chemical engineering) to publish a paper that addresses something to do with Bitcoin... but they either laugh or take the idea seriously, but the serious ideas they will consider is how to prove that Bitcoin is a bubble

*sigh*

Haha, that's because nearly all academic economics are Keynesians and therefore a lost cause.

[Zapffe]

This would make for a great academic paper!

I'm starting to think there is a lot of low-hanging fruit that would make interesting research papers.  We need to found J Bitcoin.  This forum is useful for brainstorming and vetting ideas, but I think a lot of good work gets lost and forgotten in the noise.  It would be useful to publish highly-polished peer-reviewed manuscripts in an archival format accessible to everyone.

Yeah, I've been pestering my academic colleagues in economics (I am myself a prof. of chemical engineering) to publish a paper that addresses something to do with Bitcoin... but they either laugh or take the idea seriously, but the serious ideas they will consider is how to prove that Bitcoin is a bubble

*sigh*

Haha, that's because nearly all academic economics are Keynesians and therefore a lost cause.

The bitcoin nutcases are scary people who should stay far away from power.
"Haha, education and all the academics are full of crap! Not that I have often picked up a book or finished college, but I saw a really kick-ass Youtube video, that gave me a strong feeling that it's all crap!"
The previous mentality is pretty common among the bitcoin nutcases.

It's my humble opinion, that the bitcoin nutcases are even scarier people then the Bolsheviks, because at least they valued education..

[billyjoeallen]

Austrian economists have a very specific criticism of Keynesianism. Keynesianism is modeled on physics, but it's not a physical science. It's a social science. The subjective theory of value and marginal utility render utility an impossible thing to quantify in aggregate. Market actors are not fungible, interchangeable units. We are all individuals.

[rpietila]

I was having a feeling that this might have been the bottom. You know, they come when you least expect it. I don't believe that anyone expected it now, so the chances are - up!

[TERA]

Obviously a bounce off of the historical 540 support level was entirely to be expected. It would look really weird if that didn't happen.

It will still take the next couple weeks to determine whether that was really a bottom or a trap, looking something like this:



Two things to note are that the volume and the order books are tiny.

Of course I am prepared to surrender if the 1D crosses, and again on the 3D.

[rpietila]

Surely that remains a possibility (with quite high probability actually, because 375-400 is a support that likes to be tested), but who cares really at this point? Trying to trade it is suicidal, and if you're accumulating, it does not so much matter. Waiting a few months takes care of the problem. (Yes I understand that this is a TA thread, sorry for belittling its importance  )

People far overestimate the ability to pick tops and bottoms. I am better than most, because at least my trading is profitable. Still I typically only capture 30% of the full extent of a move, such as $100 per coin on average if the move was from 700->400.

[apachebalou]

Trying to trade it is suicidal...

Sorry can you elaborate? Why is the risk larger now than at any other time?
Or do you refer to a downwards trend only?