rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[MatTheCat]

Yes I think give it 4 hours.

a rally of $200 from 500 is a nice move, and it must consolidate.

the volume is impressive, although the volume distribution of the move tells a story about it's indecisiveness.

yeah....that is the problem with applying conventional TA parameters to Bitcoin.

The whole surge up in price was driven by a relative handful of very large orders. Perhaps in this sense, the volume bars are more a measure of individual idiosyncratic behaviour than aggregate market psychology, and as every good trader knows, Bitcoin is full to the brim with 'dumb money'. For this reason, I will not consider entering market until >$700 is confirmed as support.

[creekbore]

Yes I think give it 4 hours.

a rally of $200 from 500 is a nice move, and it must consolidate.

the volume is impressive, although the volume distribution of the move tells a story about it's indecisiveness.

Well, 4 hours has been and gone and 750 wasn't broken although the rally to 712 was nevertheless impressive, regardless of the sentiment that drove it.  It's interesting how (apart from Gox, of course, where there is no real motivation to trade since neither funds not BTC can be removed only trading fees) that volume is dead across all the exchanges at present: the herd is waiting for a leader.

Exactly. And then the opposite biochemical brew will begin to dominate (those neuro peptides of grief, despair and depression). And once the chemical mind can barely remember what the bull, dopamine chemistry felt like - and begins to believe that it was all an illusion and delusion, and attention/funds drifts to more exciting pleasure potential activities....out of nowhere will arise the full-on hit of crack that sends all into ecstasy once again....the chemical mind once again believing that "we got it now" and this too will never end.  And so it goes...

Yes, that's correct.  But all our life can be regarded as the sum of electrical signals caused by bio-chemical reactions.

What is even more interesting is the impact of these extremes upon decision making when the extremes are experienced more frequently.  In 'normal' life such extremes are tempered by a period of first numbness, then normalisation and finally reflection - perhaps if you are a professional trader you may be acclimatised to such sudden and extreme states of mind.  But the majority of small holding BTC traders (of whom I am one) are not used to experiencing these extremes so rapidly.  A 'thinking strategy' must be employed.

It's interesting that some people say you must be emotionless to trade, detach yourself from your feelings.

I disagree and I put one user on ignore the other day because he insisted "feelings are for women" - this macho behaviour generally leads to serious mental health issues.    In fact, I would suggest it is more productive (and healthy) to listen to your feelings when trading - explore them, acknowledge them, understand them. Then move onto to other modes of thinking - research, risk assessment, benefits, creativity.  Only when you have considered everything can you make a decision that can be regarded as fully considered.

Is this detachment or complete immersion?

                                                                                                                                                                 

[TERA]

I remember back in my early days of trading I'd have these "feelings" and I'd ignore them and later learn that I should have listened to them after I had taken a loss. Once I learned about technical trading, after studying some charts, I realized that these "feelings" I used to have actually corresponded exactly to TA indicators like MACD and RSI.

[creekbore]

I remember back in my early days of trading I'd have these "feelings" and I'd ignore them and later learn that I should have listened to them after I had taken a loss. Once I learned about technical trading, after studying some charts, I realized that these "feelings" I used to have actually corresponded exactly to TA indicators like MACD and RSI.

Unfortunately, our post-modern lives are very confusing and 'emotions' have become derided as something that takes away rather than adds to our decision-making.  Crime prevention officers often tell people to trust their instincts (that darkened street or quiet car park that makes you uncomfortable) because we spent 100 000s years of evolution trusting our instinct to keep us from danger.  But rather than trust our emotions as a useful part of the decision making process we applaud isolated rationality.


By way of coincidence here's a post from another thread - someone confused about their emotional intelligence:

My emotions are telling me to buy back in BIG right now.  Shocked

But my gut says I need to wait a little bit more.

[TERA]

Well I'm confused what this person means about their emotions versus "their gut". I thought gut was emotions. If this person had said "my emotions versus my brain" then I would understand more.

[chessnut]

At present there is bidding to the downside by little depth after a quiet day. This is likely confirming that the recent rally was really withdraw symptoms from bitstamp, that traded up to a $40 arbitrage with BTCe after withdrawals were back in use.

By now most needy withdrawals are likely to have been completed, BTCe=stamp, and the down trend has likely resumed.

This is a nice shorting opportunity for day traders or traders looking to reduce.

when the volume comes in the next trading session the price is likey to move more than $100 in order to test $550.

[creekbore]

Well I'm confused what this person means about their emotions versus "their gut". I thought gut was emotions. If this person had said "my emotions versus my brain" then I would understand more.

That's exactly right....they are the same thing.  But we tend to use the euphemism 'gut' to signal a strong emotion because we wouldn't want strong emotions to get in the way of decision making would we

Anyway, let's hope he didn't buy in.

[MatTheCat]

I remember back in my early days of trading I'd have these "feelings" and I'd ignore them and later learn that I should have listened to them after I had taken a loss. Once I learned about technical trading, after studying some charts, I realized that these "feelings" I used to have actually corresponded exactly to TA indicators like MACD and RSI.

Yup. My turning bearish right at the 'double top' of the market back in early Dec was all based on instinct, spooked out dreams etc. The first chapter of any Tech Analysis for Dummies type book would have told me that Bitcoin was screaming bearish downturn ahead at investors back then.....large price rises on increasingly low volume, wildly overbought, the 'double top' itself etc, but only I hadn't read any such book and didn't even know what a MACD was at this time. Yet there were 'veteran' Bitcoiners whose post history on here goes right back to single digit days were telling me to hold, and saying stuff like "sell now and cry when you buy back in at $1300". As I said before, this market is heaving to the brim with dumb money.

At present there is bidding to the downside by little depth after a quiet day. This is likely confirming that the recent rally was really withdraw symptoms from bitstamp, that traded up to a $40 arbitrage with BTCe after withdrawals were back in use.

Bitcoin is once again looking like a terrible prospect. Bounce to $630 or whatever from crash makes sense as it conforms to market psychology. Those buyer who then took Bitcoin all the way up to $712 however, are now sitting on a lot of expensive Bitcoin that they may feel compelled to dump as buying pressure retreats increasingly further back.

[creekbore]

Bitcoin is once again looking like a terrible prospect.

Hi Mat, we've spoken before.
I'm rather disturbed by that statement - not its content per se but if you genuinely think this, why bother spending time here.  As someone commented a few days back: "perhaps you don't like classical music, but would you spend you time on a classical music forum, where people love classical music, telling them they were wrong and had bad taste." 

Personally, I don't think BTC is a "terrible prospect" but I do think its under fire at present, probably for doing so well recently (or as we call it in Australia "tall poppy syndrome") but I think it is wise to keep our judgements in perspective.

[T.Stuart]

Bitcoin is once again looking like a terrible prospect.

Hi Mat, we've spoken before.
I'm rather disturbed by that statement - not its content per se but if you genuinely think this, why bother spending time here.  As someone commented a few days back: "perhaps you don't like classical music, but would you spend you time on a classical music forum, where people love classical music, telling them they were wrong and had bad taste."  

Personally, I don't think BTC is a "terrible prospect" but I do think its under fire at present, probably for doing so well recently (or as we call it in Australia "tall poppy syndrome") but I think it is wise to keep our judgements in perspective.

Yeah Mat. Get onto the Beethoven forum and tell them you think Beethoven fans are a viper's nest of thieves, liars and starry-eyed fools!  

Beethoven's rubbish, Faure, Schubert or Wagner thanks.

Seriously, this wasn't an attack on Mat, just a continuation of an exchange we had about the futility of forums really.  But let's not take this too off-topic.  Risto will ban me at this rate.

Then you must love Tannhauser?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHLGVl9Ek8E
EDIT: "watching the bitcoin charts" remix!

Last off-topic post, promise!  

[MatTheCat]

Personally, I don't think BTC is a "terrible prospect"

Nobody feels excited by Bitcoin anymore. And by nobody I mean no speculators. When speculative sentiment turns lukewarm, indifferent, and then even negative on a largely speculative asset, there can only be one logical conclusion.

Bitcoin will find it's low in this bear trend, not with a flash or a bang, but with a whimper. Holders of $200 - $300 (or whatever) Bitcoin will think nothing of selling them and buyers will think nothing off buying them. That will be how sentiment is by the time this bear trends reverses, by which point the majority will not even recognise or care that is has reversed. That is how it was in Bitcoin twice before, that it was how it was in the precious metals markets up until very recently (they are taking off again).

This is how it will happen. Feel free to 'quote for truth' in order to remind me of how wrong I was at some future date, cos the opportunity aint ever gonna arise as far as this call goes.

[User705]

Two recent booms coincided with ASIC tech coming out which made people throw money indirectly into bitcoin by purchasing miners.  While their decision was wrong from ROI standpoint the fiat investment totals were likely massive.  We should have one more boom wave coming in about 1-2 months with 3rd gen chips coming out.  How big a boom will depend on diff and chip specs.

[nickenburg]

Two recent booms coincided with ASIC tech coming out which made people throw money indirectly into bitcoin by purchasing miners.  While their decision was wrong from ROI standpoint the fiat investment totals were likely massive.  We should have one more boom wave coming in about 1-2 months with 3rd gen chips coming out.  How big a boom will depend on diff and chip specs.

Only 1 boom left?
Maybe after the 3rd gen chips come out, there will be more powerfull asic miners.
Maybe even for less money to, can we expect more booms then?
I think bitcoin has recently found alot of new spectators, that are gettin more interested in bitcoin and the whole cryptocurrency world.
Goverments and more company's are getting involved, and just maybe if we get a little good press for once, bitcoin can use it and will rise hopefully

[Wekkel]

Personally, I don't think BTC is a "terrible prospect"

Nobody feels excited by Bitcoin anymore. And by nobody I mean no speculators. When speculative sentiment turns lukewarm, indifferent, and then even negative on a largely speculative asset, there can only be one logical conclusion.

Bitcoin will find it's low in this bear trend, not with a flash or a bang, but with a whimper. Holders of $200 - $300 (or whatever) Bitcoin will think nothing of selling them and buyers will think nothing off buying them. That will be how sentiment is by the time this bear trends reverses, by which point the majority will not even recognise or care that is has reversed. That is how it was in Bitcoin twice before, that it was how it was in the precious metals markets up until very recently (they are taking off again).

This is how it will happen. Feel free to 'quote for truth' in order to remind me of how wrong I was at some future date, cos the opportunity aint ever gonna arise as far as this call goes.

This +1

[TERA]

This past few days I observed gox hit rock bottom at 300 and reverse. that's what it looks like, and that's what it looked like in july with 66. when its just smashed against the same level for 3 days with a slowly increasing support and theres one guy dumping relentlessly on high volume and another guy using a stealth pattern to accumulate an unlimited amount of coins. I have no idea what this means for the rest of the market trading at 650 though.

[cAPSLOCK]

Bah.  Crazy talk. 

Speculators like nothing more than times like this.

[seleme]

Personally, I don't think BTC is a "terrible prospect"

Nobody feels excited by Bitcoin anymore. And by nobody I mean no speculators. When speculative sentiment turns lukewarm, indifferent, and then even negative on a largely speculative asset, there can only be one logical conclusion.

Bitcoin will find it's low in this bear trend, not with a flash or a bang, but with a whimper. Holders of $200 - $300 (or whatever) Bitcoin will think nothing of selling them and buyers will think nothing off buying them. That will be how sentiment is by the time this bear trends reverses, by which point the majority will not even recognise or care that is has reversed. That is how it was in Bitcoin twice before, that it was how it was in the precious metals markets up until very recently (they are taking off again).

This is how it will happen. Feel free to 'quote for truth' in order to remind me of how wrong I was at some future date, cos the opportunity aint ever gonna arise as far as this call goes.

How rich for someone who thought same and sold his Bitcoins at 10$ piece.

Hahaha

[MatTheCat]

Speculators like nothing more than times like this.

Then why don't you pile in and go long Bitcoin, Herr Speculator?

This past few days I observed gox hit rock bottom at 300 and reverse. that's what it looks like, and that's what it looked like in july with 66. when its just smashed against the same level for 3 days with a slowly increasing support and theres one guy dumping relentlessly on high volume and another guy using a stealth pattern to accumulate an unlimited amount of coins. I have no idea what this means for the rest of the market trading at 650 though.

Leave MtGox to one side. It is a silly place.

On Bitstamp in July 2013, there were 6 days when Bitcoin could have been had for less than $70, and it looked and behaved undeniably shit for around 2 months prior to that.

On Bistamp on Feb 8th and Feb 12th, there was a 2 minute period, and then perhaps a total of 60-90 minutes, where Bitcoin could be got for around $570 or less. Outwith those flash crashes, Bitcoin has been in either $700s or $600s. Bitcoin also behaved undeniably shit for just about 10 days prior to the first of these flash crashes, when $765 support was breached and break-down from wedge confirmed (you could argue that the whole $765 support wedge was Bitcoin behaving shit, but plenty people here 'expected' break out from there.....not me of course).

These two bottoms, are two very different kinds of bottom, that much is clear. The recent double bottom, which has lots of bullish indications about it if not for the time in the market phase when it occurred has shown far too much buy pressure and far too much resistance to sell at these lows which resulted in the buying pressure pushing the price dramatically northwards and shows that there is probably still too much positivity left in the market for $540 to be the double bottom of the bear trend reversal. In July 2013, there was a huge amount of volume relative to the time, yet the price remained relatively stable around the bottomed out price range over a (in Bitcoin terms) long period of time.

How rich for someone who thought same and sold his Bitcoins at 10$ piece.

I wasn't speculating in Bitcoins back then. To me, Bitcoins were a form of online currency, that I used to make purchases with. I was using $10 BTC, and considerably cheaper than $10 BTC in the market place, helping to provide Bitcoin with an economic backbone and thus enabling parasite leech fucks like you to get in nice and early on the Bitcoin pyramid scheme hoarding game. Providing nothing of value but just sitting there sucking up the wealth of the later arrivals.

Back then, I subscribed to the gold bug fight the bankers paradigm and would have held even if Gold hit $5000 and Silver hit $500, like all the internet gold bugs and silver stackers were assuring everyone that they would. It took a long time into the metal's bear trend for me to stop believing in all the bullshit stories and finally admit to myself that I was only going to lose value on these investments. I have learned my lesson from allowing myself to become emotionally attached to investment vehicles. You haven't and one day you will be punished for it. Indeed, you have already been punished. You are already down around 50% of your net worth compared to Dec 2013, but you have much harder lessons to come yet.

[seleme]

I'm not down a single penny since December 2013, I'm up way more.

But unlike you, I haven't spent last 2 months talking utter nonsense and presenting it as facts here but made at least 300 BTC trading all kind of shit. For example I'm just closing my McxFees trade that will pocket me 190-200 BTC of pure profit in some 2 weeks.

As long as my BTC wallet is rising with such speed I couldn't give a less shit where Bitcoin will be in next few weeks , I'm perfectly fine with 400$, even 300$ though it wouldn't be such fun .

And you just keep talking your theories, that will send you very far

[Siegfried]

Bitcoin is once again looking like a terrible prospect.

Hi Mat, we've spoken before.
I'm rather disturbed by that statement - not its content per se but if you genuinely think this, why bother spending time here.  As someone commented a few days back: "perhaps you don't like classical music, but would you spend you time on a classical music forum, where people love classical music, telling them they were wrong and had bad taste."  

Personally, I don't think BTC is a "terrible prospect" but I do think its under fire at present, probably for doing so well recently (or as we call it in Australia "tall poppy syndrome") but I think it is wise to keep our judgements in perspective.

Yeah Mat. Get onto the Beethoven forum and tell them you think Beethoven fans are a viper's nest of thieves, liars and starry-eyed fools!  

Beethoven's rubbish, Faure, Schubert or Wagner thanks.

Seriously, this wasn't an attack on Mat, just a continuation of an exchange we had about the futility of forums really.  But let's not take this too off-topic.  Risto will ban me at this rate.

Then you must love Tannhauser?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eHLGVl9Ek8E
EDIT: "watching the bitcoin charts" remix!

Last off-topic post, promise!  

I cannot comprehend how someone who loves Schubert and Wagner could think that Beethoven is rubbish. Honestly, I think people who think Beethoven is rubbish are lacking a complete human soul.