rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[trainingsengineering]

There is nothing secretive about such a group. Please stop the speculation. There's access for everyone - as long as you continuously add value and quality.

There is no magic BTC cap, there is no requirement of last name or ownership of large properties. All it requires is that you behave like an intelligent adult that wants to do something good in this world, and see Bitcoin as a mean for that.

It's not hidden, by all means. Do at least a bit of homework, before attacking.

These sorts of posts are contributing to why people want to have some breathing space, as to let the minds ponder, away from non-constructive noise.

[1715676789]

1715676789

[1715676789]

1715676789

[1715676789]

1715676789

[MatTheCat]

There is nothing secretive about such a group. Please stop the speculation. There's access for everyone - as long as you continuously add value and quality.

There is no magic BTC cap, there is no requirement of last name or ownership of large properties. All it requires is that you behave like an intelligent adult that wants to do something good in this world, and see Bitcoin as a mean for that.

It's not hidden, by all means. Do at least a bit of homework, before attacking.

These sorts of posts are contributing to why people want to have some breathing space, as to let the minds ponder, away from non-constructive noise.

That would require a level of naivety that I haven't possessed since I was a teenager.

Not much 'good' will come from Bitcoin.

Just another heavily cornered financial asset masquerading as some kind of digital currency of liberty.

[trainingsengineering]

There is nothing secretive about such a group. Please stop the speculation. There's access for everyone - as long as you continuously add value and quality.

There is no magic BTC cap, there is no requirement of last name or ownership of large properties. All it requires is that you behave like an intelligent adult that wants to do something good in this world, and see Bitcoin as a mean for that.

It's not hidden, by all means. Do at least a bit of homework, before attacking.

These sorts of posts are contributing to why people want to have some breathing space, as to let the minds ponder, away from non-constructive noise.

That would require a level of naivety that I haven't possessed since I was a teenager.

Not much 'good' will come from Bitcoin.

Just another heavily cornered financial asset masquerading as some kind of digital currency of liberty.

Some people at least try. You come off as too cynical and pessimistic. I feel sorry for you, and I am probably not he only one on this board.

Here's a hint. If, just IF it was supposed to be a secretive elitist place - why would people try and spread it out? A finger is being put up in the air to feel sentiments. Those who are most interested will find their way.

If you see a group sitting on the grass, having a quiet piece of mind and discussion, do you automatically wonder why they are not jumping up and down and waiving flags to get the attention of the whole school yard, so they can to get them over and join their activity?

Apologies to OP for hijacking the thread. Feel free to delete it.  

[CoolStoryBro]

I wonder why Fox steady going down for the last few days.

Difference between other exchanges reduces, which is a healthy signal for Gox, isn't it?

[BitChick]

Major announcement: There is a new private bitcoin forum online. If you belong to the top contributors here, please PM and I will send you an invitation. Finally a place to take the discussion to a new level!  

No vacancies currently, thank you

Sure, the "top contributors" are allowed to have an exclusive forum if they want one.

However, my only complaint is that "even the dogs eat the crumbs from the master's table." 

How are we to get any crumbs when we are not even allowed near the table at all?   I suppose we are then at the mercy of whatever crumbs happen to be thrown out the door?  I like to at least smell what the dinner was with hopes to gain a crumb or two.   

[jmw74]

I certainly understand the frustration - the quality of posts on this forum has gone down considerably since I first joined.

However I'd propose that the real problem isn't that we need an exclusive new forum.  It's that we need a better way to see the content we wish to see.

I'd argue that's really a problem with the forum software, not the userbase.  Sure we can block every troll and even honest users we disagree with, but that's an arduous manual process and would result in ugly content.

It would be nice if the forum software gave you more control.  Right now I've resorted to just browsing the latest posts of a handful people.  The "show unread posts since last visit" link is utterly useless, it's 99% spam.

So, do we need a new forum?  Yes, if this one can't be fixed.  Does it need to be exclusive?  No.

[hdbuck]

So, do we need a new forum?  Yes, if this one can't be fixed.  Does it need to be exclusive?  No.

If it is not exclusive the problem would be moderation. We do not have the budget to pay 10 people to moderate. Maybe in the future we will be more open, but right now that is not the case. Give us a month and we will see what will happen.

i dont get it, maybe you can keep the invites for those top contributors you get to identify, but why not leave that forum open for visitors? they wouldnt be able to post anything just get a grasp of what the "masterminds" are up to.

[jmw74]

So, do we need a new forum?  Yes, if this one can't be fixed.  Does it need to be exclusive?  No.

If it is not exclusive the problem would be moderation. We do not have the budget to pay 10 people to moderate. Maybe in the future we will be more open, but right now that is not the case. Give us a month and we will see what will happen.

I don't think it needs to be moderated.  Nobody moderates my Google+ feed.  I just follow the people whose content I want to read.  

Of course I have to decide for myself whose content is worthy, rather than letting someone else decide.  But I can't see any other way.  If one moderator is deciding for everyone, it will inevitably end up that only a small fraction is satisfied with what gets through.

[isov]

So, do we need a new forum?  Yes, if this one can't be fixed.  Does it need to be exclusive?  No.

If it is not exclusive the problem would be moderation. We do not have the budget to pay 10 people to moderate. Maybe in the future we will be more open, but right now that is not the case. Give us a month and we will see what will happen.

i dont get it, maybe you can keep the invites for those top contributors you get to identify, but why not leave that forum open for visitors? they wouldnt be able to post anything just get a grasp of what the "masterminds" are up to.

This is the way it was set up. But people wanted to speak more freely and not be indexed by google. So we went with what the members of the site wanted to do.

I don't know how web forums or such are coded/made but would it be possible to send two different kinds of invitations to this new quality forum? Full posting and whatever rights to these guys who actually can post something worth reading and something like "visitor invitations" to other people so they can not post or do anything else but read? I would very much like to read what men smarter than me are posting and would be just fine without posting my self. That way no random people would be loitering in your forum because you need an invitation or something to just read?

[EuroTrash]

Pfff. This used to be a thread about meaningful TA.

[ArticMine]

Pfff. This used to be a thread about meaningful TA.

+1

[cAPSLOCK]

Pfff. This used to be a thread about meaningful TA.

No.  This was always a thread about one man's ego.  The title shows that.

[ArticMine]

Pfff. This used to be a thread about meaningful TA.

No.  This was always a thread about one man's ego.  The title shows that.

I am willing to give the OP credit because he did come up with some very good TA ideas; however his "assumed" data for 2009 and early 2010, "the bathwater" is really testing my patience. I mean what is the justification for this BTC / USD rate of 0.005 for January 2009? I mean this is just like a couple of weeks after Satoshi mined the genesis block! So maybe it is time to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

[thatbluedude]

about this new forum:

what makes one worthy to be in it?
ist it basic stuff like:
not posting useless crap ( "why don't we reposess inactive coins?", spamming useless altcoins)
unterstanding EMAs?
or do you need to have 500 posts and be able to discuss the finer points of elliptic curves or be a millionaire?

[rpietila]

i dont get it, maybe you can keep the invites for those top contributors you get to identify, but why not leave that forum open for visitors? they wouldnt be able to post anything just get a grasp of what the "masterminds" are up to.

This is the way it was set up. But people wanted to speak more freely and not be indexed by google. So we went with what the members of the site wanted to do.

I don't know how web forums or such are coded/made but would it be possible to send two different kinds of invitations to this new quality forum? Full posting and whatever rights to these guys who actually can post something worth reading and something like "visitor invitations" to other people so they can not post or do anything else but read? I would very much like to read what men smarter than me are posting and would be just fine without posting my self. That way no random people would be loitering in your forum because you need an invitation or something to just read?

The forum is a full one week old now, please give us some time!

My idea has originally been to allow and encourage lurkers (after all, my reason to post is to influence people, and in general more readers = more influence). Then I switched to "incubator forum with a controlled public interface (blog, media contact)" model, which I am currently advocating. Some other people want to have a relaxing lounge without trolls but also without world-changing effect.

It is in a constant evolution, but we would likely keep the metatalk there. If you want an invitation, just ask somebody who is already in, but not me, unless you actually know me. We are responsible of whom we take in, and I would not like to actually decline somebody's wish just based on that. Besides, I am busy with other matters than membership rights administration

Pfff. This used to be a thread about meaningful TA.

No.  This was always a thread about one man's ego.  The title shows that.

"Wall Observer" is a part of bitcoin culture, which means that a thread is officially about walls, heavily moderated, TA, and such, but in reality just an interesting thread about whatever is at hand. Btw. isn't it a little masochistic to go to self-moderated viper's den to scold the viper? 

I am willing to give the OP credit because he did come up with some very good TA ideas; however his "assumed" data for 2009 and early 2010, "the bathwater" is really testing my patience. I mean what is the justification for this BTC / USD rate of 0.005 for January 2009? I mean this is just like a couple of weeks after Satoshi mined the genesis block! So maybe it is time to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

So much blame with so little data that could be used to replace the contested part!

As if I did not know that the first USD/Bitcoin exchange was conducted in January 2009 with an exchange rate of $0.001 per bitcoin? Sirius, who was the seller, told this to me while sitting on the couch of my private club sipping my whisky. You can read from the thread in question, why these individual instances are ignored and rather an average has been used. Until someone has a better idea, that is.

about this new forum:

what makes one worthy to be in it?
ist it basic stuff like:
not posting useless crap ( "why don't we reposess inactive coins?", spamming useless altcoins)
unterstanding EMAs?
or do you need to have 500 posts and be able to discuss the finer points of elliptic curves or be a millionaire?

Not posting useless crap is a hygiene matter, yes, that will be enforced brutally. After a couple of people you brought to the forum have been banned, you will also.

It would be good that you had at least some field of interest/experience that you could share and contribute. At present we are negative towards lurkers (as discussed above). It does not need to be Bitcoin-related.

This is a forum for liberty-lovers ("anarchists", "libertarians", "anti-statists"). So if statism is your thing, stay away. We will detect it anyway and kick you out

Having 500 posts helps a great lot, because after such an amount of contribution, we definitely see whether you are the right type or not. There is a proposal that we have a two-tier forum where quality posters would be invited to the deeper section, but then again, almost every thing has already been proposed

Being a millionaire is not required, but some of the content is strongly related to the ongoing process of us all becoming millionaires and how we should prepare for the eventuality (and for the scenario that the supposed eventuality does not materialize).

[Wekkel]

Please keep posting here as well. I like a good dose of positive projections every now and then.

[ArticMine]

...

I am willing to give the OP credit because he did come up with some very good TA ideas; however his "assumed" data for 2009 and early 2010, "the bathwater" is really testing my patience. I mean what is the justification for this BTC / USD rate of 0.005 for January 2009? I mean this is just like a couple of weeks after Satoshi mined the genesis block! So maybe it is time to throw out the baby with the bathwater.

So much blame with so little data that could be used to replace the contested part!

As if I did not know that the first USD/Bitcoin exchange was conducted in January 2009 with an exchange rate of $0.001 per bitcoin? Sirius, who was the seller, told this to me while sitting on the couch of my private club sipping my whisky. You can read from the thread in question, why these individual instances are ignored and rather an average has been used. Until someone has a better idea, that is.
...

A better idea is here is really simple. If one does not have data for a particular month then one does not include a data point for that month. Furthermore not including a data point encourages other members of the community research for the missing data, a much more constructive alternative to "blame". If one has data that is questionable, then one has various options: 1) Not include the data, 2) Include the data with a caveat. 3) Provide results with and without the questionable data and let the reader be the judge. All of these are reasonable and can be justified. The choice here can be subjective and the subject of different points of view and debate. What is not acceptable is to make up data to for example replace missing data points.

Now let us consider the January 2009 data point. You have a sale at 0.001 BTC / USD rate. The options here are to include the data point at 0.001 BTC / USD rate or not include it as above. These options are of course perfectly reasonable. None of this however provides any justification for a data point of 0.005 BTC / USD. Given the absence of any further evidence (more January 2009 data points to justify an average of 0.005 BTC / USD for January 2009) one can only conclude that this January 2009 data point of 0.005 BTC / USD was simply made up.

We now come to the question of blame: Blame needs to be same for the same amount of error. The critical issue to consider here is that we are dealing with a log scale, which means that an error of a factor of 5 on a data point of 0.001 equivalent an error of a factor of 5 on a data point of say 517 (November 2013), so the appropriate amount of blame for the made up January 2009 data point needs to be same as if the November 2013 data point was changed by a factor of five to either 2585 BTC / USD or 103.4 BTC / USD.

Since there appears to be is a substantial number of made up data points (January 2009 - May 2010) it becomes apparent that the slope of the trend line can easily be changed as a result of this to yield a "sell" indicator instead of a "buy" or vice versa.

[nanobrain]

Wow, I checked in to see what the great, cigar-smoking brains were thinking and what a potential floor for this correction may be: I find some meta-discussion about forums and that some VIP forum has been set up.  No riff-raff. 

"Being a millionaire is not required" - hilarious

I take the stance of Marx (Groucho not Karl) with regard to clubs.

[Zarathustra]

This is a forum for liberty-lovers ("anarchists", "libertarians", "anti-statists"). So if statism is your thing, stay away. We will detect it anyway and kick you out

Everybody who advocates an economy and a market is by definition a statist, since beyond the state and the society you won't find an economy or a market place.
People who are living beyond the state live in self-sufficient communities. That's the difference to all those who 'live' in a society. The difference of citizens vs. humans. The citizen is a collectivist cartoon of the former human, the homo oeconomicus a cartoon of the homo sapiens.
Most libertarians do not know anything of this historic reality. They are dreamers and apologists of the so called 'progress', which is nothing more than systematic destruction of the planet in exponentially increasing pace.

[rpietila]

Wow, I checked in to see what the great, cigar-smoking brains were thinking and what a potential floor for this correction may be: I find some meta-discussion about forums and that some VIP forum has been set up.  No riff-raff. 

"Being a millionaire is not required" - hilarious

I take the stance of Marx (Groucho not Karl) with regard to clubs.

Madam,

Why is your tongue so sharp?

Concerning the correction - I had some bids in the 600-700 area (most of) which were fulfilled. This was a small short-term gain after selling at ~800 when that level started to feel shaky 1-2 weeks ago.

This is an excellent setup for the "final capitulation", the bottom of which can be anywhere significantly below the current price of $664 and the exponential trend which is today at $648. Around $400 is my guess. I now put the chances of going lower at above 50%. Long time ago I played with the possible dates and found that Feb 14 is a good candidate for being the low point. Any time until end of March is possible though.

Mt.Gox may blow up and could catalyze further crashes. A persistent downward trend also suppresses new investment. It is just the way the market goes - in waves. The good thing is that when we see the bottom, there is no more downside left, it is all UP, UP, UP.

TL;DR: I think the confidence is now decisively shaken based on the price action alone, which means that trend is down until exhaustion.