rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[TERA]

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

are the ATMs linked to Bitstamp?

I don't know, possibly. Almost everything is linked to Bitstamp (a weakness). Would this cause million dollar purchases though?

[1715458458]

1715458458

[Dragonkiller]

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

are the ATMs linked to Bitstamp?

Yes they are, but last I heard the ATMs had to be suspended because Bitstamp would identify the withdrawals as spam and it would get delayed. This was a couple of weeks ago.

[chessnut]

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

are the ATMs linked to Bitstamp?

Relax... the ATMs are whale dispensors.
people on the street will take the hit if they are buying now.
looks like we will have a sale on bitcoin this week. 50% off

[sir faps]

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

Isn't buying a good thing?

[wachtwoord]

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

Isn't buying a good thing?

I presume he wants to buy cheaper Bitcoins

[sir faps]

it doesn't look good. there's too much God damned buying in bitstamp. even with bitcoin withdrawal closed.

Isn't buying a good thing?

IO presume he wants to buy cheaper Bitcoins

haha ah now I understand

[Carlton Banks]

When you look at the actual issue, all we're going to get in the short term is a workaround. So if this comedian of an attacker wants to continue, then accepting 0-confs are out for a while, as well as spending change from transactions that didn't confirm yet. So it's not some network tragedy.

Long term, the core team have been slowly fixing parts of the issue already. But it's said to be a long way from stopping the mutant txs from being created at all, although this event will no doubt concentrate a bit of rumination on the solution. Price reaction seems appropriate IMO, if anything the continued attack defused the impact of the Gox statement a little, as it seems they were individually targeted as a way of spreading FUD about their financial condition. The withdrawals cancellation and broken protocol statement appeared as if Gox was misdirecting blame about their sketchy finances, but we know now that they could have been telling the truth. I'll believe that unreservedly when I successfully buy up coins with my remaining fiat at Gox and empty my account

Like others here, though, I wonder whether there won't be some follow up attack, using a completely different exploit. It would make sense if there's something available. Start with an unrewarding attack, then escalate to something harsher once the price reaction settles. It will be a good endorsement of the network architecture if that doesn't happen though. It's worth remembering that the the developers have issued several DOS fixes that were never exploited by anyone before they were patched.

[Carlton Banks]

gmaxwell confirms it : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=460876.msg5091537#msg5091537

It sounds like there's a fix to block the actual attack, instead of just working around it.

[creekbore]

Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?

There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.

This is a great point.  In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60.  The rest as they say is history.

So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

Which falls on a Friday this year, too.  St Valentine's Day massacre? I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own.

[keithers]

Mixed signals. Trendline suggests we are still high. Also the bottoms so far this week have been flashcrashes with quick rebounds. (This has not been a property of the prior final capitulations, rather of the beginning of them.) Not enough negative sentiment, everybody is still hopeful. Even goxbtc trades at higher than is realistic imo. There are also negative events that could still happen.

Feeling of fear is a good sign, but not yet the sign to buy if the price is not there.

You have some really good points. I do not know where you are seeing the "everybody is still hopeful."  I mean, I am hopeful mainly because of the eco-system and the fairly positive response of US regulators. Besides that, even I, who am a "perma-bull" am not very hopeful of the current price. I feel fear. Others, if you have been watching closely, have either gone silent (Mbtac) or have said they are quitting. Plus there is a massive influx of trolls, with threads saying Bitcoin is going to die. DDosers smelled blood and went on the attack. Someone sold off 8000 BTC on btc-e. Crazy shit is going on everywhere.

I agree entirely with this. Compared to the 'to da moon' sentiment of 2-3 months ago. It's like night and day.

I don't think there are any permabulls posting at the moment who aren't feeling at least a little bit nervous.

The only sells I'll ever make are skimming a little play money. Significant trading for profit is not my bag. My primary goal for BTC is hedging its potential crash up, and so I sit and wait and watch.

My difficulty is when to commit more fiat. Experience has taught me not to try and second guess the price, so that leaves me with laddering down. I might not catch the bottom, I might not maximise my entry. I do guarantee that I take something out of this situation though.

Wow, good job, the above are my thoughts exactly...Coincidentally it is post #666 on the thread lol.  I have been doing the exact same thing, and I am trying to find the price where I am comfortable throwing more cash at it.  Just with all the chaos going on lately, I don't know at what price point that is...

[windjc]

Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?

There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.

This is a great point.  In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60.  The rest as they say is history.

So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

Which falls on a Friday this year, too.  I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own.

Yeah, I was a bit harsh.

You just posted a dead cupid. Interestingly enough, I made a comment about how Valentine's Day was bearish for men and reptelia delete my post. Lol. WTF?

[creekbore]

Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?

There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.

This is a great point.  In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60.  The rest as they say is history.

So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

Which falls on a Friday this year, too.  I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own.

Yeah, I was a bit harsh.

You just posted a dead cupid. Interestingly enough, I made a comment about how Valentine's Day was bearish for men and reptelia delete my post. Lol. WTF?

It was meant as a reference to the St Valentine's Day Massacre rather than any comment on either romanticism or gender therein: rather than a picture of the actual massacre (which are mostly surprisingly graphic) I thought this was simultaneously classical/baroque, witty and shocking.  As may Friday's drop.

[Asrael999]

Could it now start to be looking like final capitulation or something? At least there is quite big volume for this past week and if you zoom enough out on the chart it looks like it just might have been long enough to go up. I tend to think that the cycles of rallies are getting faster and more close to each other and on 3day and 1week charts it looks something like last april and beyond that on faster speed?

No.

The price is too high relative to the trend (about 0). Currently 400 daily average would suffice.

Also no panic, no desperation.

ADD: And we seem to have some real Bitcoinwide issues at hand. I am surprised why price is so high tbh! I can't withdraw or spend my bitcoin, but I can still sell them at Bitstamp and get fiat out of it.

I am curious as to why you are maintaining your 400 daily average level.   If I look at your other post in the economics section where you posted your regression calculation your trend line would now be in the mid/high 600's a level which Bitstamp is currently below.   WHile I have nothing against you having a public and seperate propriatary model I am curious as to why they diverge so much, what additional assumptions you are making or what you are looking at in addition.

[rpietila]

Risto did we have final capitulation from last april bubble (by your rules)?

There were so much talk in the summer about $50 capitulation coins in jan-feb.2014.

This is a great point.  In the period June - October 2013 there were multiple threads and theories which explained very persuasively that BTC could not and would not post a new ATH until we reached the mythic 'capitulation' price, which IIRC was suggested to be USD60.  The rest as they say is history.

So, where does that leave us and where does it leave the validity of TA when applied to a market such as crypto.

Then there is the February 14, which alone is a reason to sell your coins NOW.

Which falls on a Friday this year, too.  I think at least an exaggerated weekend dip is possible.

No, he is saying that people like you are making this forum a shithole.

If you want to change people's behaviour, the best place to start is with your own.

Yeah, I was a bit harsh.

You just posted a dead cupid. Interestingly enough, I made a comment about how Valentine's Day was bearish for men and reptelia delete my post. Lol. WTF?

The thread quality has deteriorated rapidly. In your case you quoted a pageful of stuff and added a oneliner, and the whole was in turn later quoted by another poster. This is against the thread rules and known moderating procedures in my threads.


Bolded for emphasis, to make it stand out from clutter, not that I needed to shout or anything Only the fact that I am busy, restricts me from deleting much more now.

[creekbore]

Apologies to Risto if I have added to the clutter....image removed. 

[TERA]

Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?

[rpietila]

Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?

In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The trendline in turn, takes into account everything that happens in the infrastructure or anywhere else.

I do not think that it will go lower, ie. $300s on a permanent basis, but may very well dip there, or even $100, temporarily, just like BTCe already did.

Midterm I would be more than content if 500 was accepted as a fair price and volatility would calm down.

[Ivanhoe]

Are you sure you didn't know about the wallet exploit ( not protocol exploit, the protocol is fine ) and priced that in? A lot of insiders knew about this already, i can imagine you are one of us since you are heavily invested as well.

[CryptStorm]

gmaxwell confirms it : https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=460876.msg5091537#msg5091537

It sounds like there's a fix to block the actual attack, instead of just working around it.

As always, reading your notes, 'Mr. Banks', is refreshingly illuminating-- thank you, sincerely!

[traderCJ]

Hi rpietila. When you made you estimate of the bottom, did you factor in potential bad news such as exchanges all screwing up, protocol exploits, and government bans, or will it go lower now? Does it make a difference?

In December, when I made the estimate for $400 bottom in January-March time, I based it solely on trendline analysis. The trendline in turn, takes into account everything that happens in the infrastructure or anywhere else.

I do not think that it will go lower, ie. $300s on a permanent basis, but may very well dip there, or even $100, temporarily, just like BTCe already did.

Midterm I would be more than content if 500 was accepted as a fair price and volatility would calm down.

I have to hand it to you, you called this one.  As I type this, the 500 wall at Gox is being chipped away, which will probably pull the rest down into the low $600s once it breaks through.  As the days tick by with no Goxdrawals, the price will continue to slide .. and your $400 bottom may just well come to fruition.