rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

People far overestimate the ability to pick tops and bottoms. I am better than most, because at least my trading is profitable. Still I typically only capture 30% of the full extent of a move, such as $100 per coin on average if the move was from 700->400.

Good for you that your trading is profitable, I know you took some serious losses to MtGox/sturles but atleast you didn't loose everything.

My Feb was actually positive despite of it, cause I nailed the 400 dip. You should care about sturles, because he is the one who must have got hit with his beloved exchange..:/

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[wachtwoord]

This would make for a great academic paper!

I'm starting to think there is a lot of low-hanging fruit that would make interesting research papers.  We need to found J Bitcoin.  This forum is useful for brainstorming and vetting ideas, but I think a lot of good work gets lost and forgotten in the noise.  It would be useful to publish highly-polished peer-reviewed manuscripts in an archival format accessible to everyone.

Yeah, I've been pestering my academic colleagues in economics (I am myself a prof. of chemical engineering) to publish a paper that addresses something to do with Bitcoin... but they either laugh or take the idea seriously, but the serious ideas they will consider is how to prove that Bitcoin is a bubble

*sigh*

Haha, that's because nearly all academic economics are Keynesians and therefore a lost cause.

The bitcoin nutcases are scary people who should stay far away from power.
"Haha, education and all the academics are full of crap! Not that I have often picked up a book or finished college, but I saw a really kick-ass Youtube video, that gave me a strong feeling that it's all crap!"
The previous mentality is pretty common among the bitcoin nutcases.

It's my humble opinion, that the bitcoin nutcases are even scarier people then the Bolsheviks, because at least they valued education..

I have a PhD and I value education tremendously.

I just think Keynesians are fucking retarded. Have you ever read what they believe?

[solarflare]

This would make for a great academic paper!

I'm starting to think there is a lot of low-hanging fruit that would make interesting research papers.  We need to found J Bitcoin.  This forum is useful for brainstorming and vetting ideas, but I think a lot of good work gets lost and forgotten in the noise.  It would be useful to publish highly-polished peer-reviewed manuscripts in an archival format accessible to everyone.

Yeah, I've been pestering my academic colleagues in economics (I am myself a prof. of chemical engineering) to publish a paper that addresses something to do with Bitcoin... but they either laugh or take the idea seriously, but the serious ideas they will consider is how to prove that Bitcoin is a bubble

*sigh*

Haha, that's because nearly all academic economics are Keynesians and therefore a lost cause.

The bitcoin nutcases are scary people who should stay far away from power.
"Haha, education and all the academics are full of crap! Not that I have often picked up a book or finished college, but I saw a really kick-ass Youtube video, that gave me a strong feeling that it's all crap!"
The previous mentality is pretty common among the bitcoin nutcases.

It's my humble opinion, that the bitcoin nutcases are even scarier people then the Bolsheviks, because at least they valued education..

I have a PhD and I value education tremendously.

I just think Keynesians are fucking retarded. Have you ever read what they believe?

I don't even have to read what they believe to know that they are retarded because in my book anyone who values humanity or society in terms of economic output and employment rate is fucking retarded, no matter what theory they believe in.

[mitkos1]

I know this is TA thread but you should take this in to account: rumors that gox btc has been found:

http://theblogchain.com/news/mtgox-found-bitcoin/

[chriswilmer]

I know this is TA thread but you should take this in to account: rumors that gox btc has been found:

http://theblogchain.com/news/mtgox-found-bitcoin/

Not sure whether to be happy or sad about Mt.Gox constantly staying in the spotlight for one reason or other... :/

[mgburks77]

I just think Keynesians are fucking retarded. Have you ever read what they believe?

The Keynesian system would work quite well if the Bancor, as conceived by Kenynes, or another international reserve currency was used as the world's reserve currency rather than USD.

There is a natural tension between domestic currency which demands stability, and a reserve currency which demands liquidity. The current system uses this factor, called the Triffen Dilemma, to facilitate deficit spending. The result is that the negative repercussions of US debt, the external cost, is transferred to the rest of the world, especially the developing world.

This allows us to continue to borrow and inflate our way out of it. Basically is a way to make our books look balanced, because "someone else" is paying a lot of the costs of extracting resources and processing them for market for use. The end result is a massive imbalance in our economic system that will eventually correct and reallocate the human capital that we have misallocated to hide the true nature of this corrupt system.

So, we are abusing the Keynesian system, basically. It's a corrupt system, bottom line.

This is why China is calling for SDR etc.

[rpietila]

Perhaps about 1-2 weeks, I have had an urge to sell. Not just for profit but just sell, permanently. Even a little. To "balance the portfolio" because you never know what happens, good or bad.

Last time I had the same feeling was in September, and I yielded. And felt so good for 1 week. But after 2 months it felt like the stupidest blunder ever.

No, I am not selling this time I just shared this with you as one of the indicators of a bottom.

I don't think we will see 500 ever again 

[chriswilmer]

Perhaps about 1-2 weeks, I have had an urge to sell. Not just for profit but just sell, permanently. Even a little. To "balance the portfolio" because you never know what happens, good or bad.

Last time I had the same feeling was in September, and I yielded. And felt so good for 1 week. But after 2 months it felt like the stupidest blunder ever.

No, I am not selling this time I just shared this with you as one of the indicators of a bottom.

I don't think we will see 500 ever again 

Good call.

[mitkos1]

I don't think we will see 500 ever again 

I'm sticking with my plan with orders below 500. I'll get myself a few ounces of silver if this wont get filled 

[sgbett]

Perhaps about 1-2 weeks, I have had an urge to sell. Not just for profit but just sell, permanently. Even a little. To "balance the portfolio" because you never know what happens, good or bad.

Last time I had the same feeling was in September, and I yielded. And felt so good for 1 week. But after 2 months it felt like the stupidest blunder ever.

No, I am not selling this time I just shared this with you as one of the indicators of a bottom.

I don't think we will see 500 ever again 

In time, all are assimilated to HODL

In the endgame there will be no 'selling' just using. But you already know this of course

The odd trinket along the way doesn't hurt though, admittedly I'm not buying million euro houses, but to each according to his means. heheh.

[Trolololo]

Here is the square of the number of TXs per day (excluding popular addresses) overlaying the price history and shown on a log scale.  I've shifted the N²_TX curve for easier comparisons.  Indeed, Metcalfe's law appears to hold (the two curves tend to have the same slope on the log curve at any given point in time).    

Amazing test, Peter R !!!
Congrats!

[chessnut]

I don't think we will see 500 ever again 

I'm sticking with my plan with orders below 500. I'll get myself a few ounces of silver if this wont get filled 

My problem for considering 500 as a bottom is that there are almost 16 millions of active usd swaps at bitfinex and it feels like they are just waiting to get squeezed sooner or later

Do you really think it is likely that Bitfinex could bring down the whole market with just 16 million? I dont think its likely to crash on its own, there is plenty of arbitrage support.

[lunarboy]

So.... about that Bitstamp wall then, just for show? or ready to sell?

[TERA]

So.... about that Bitstamp wall then, just for show? or ready to sell?

It looks like it may have dumped at market.

[bclcjunkie]

precisely... i started following risto's calls for the past 3 months and i must admit so far so good, managed to catch couple of dips, avoid bull traps. although missed 400 as my fiat wasn't ready at that time... nevertheless imho btc is still undervalued against what's to come in 3-4 months... also his insights and trend analysis formula were far more accurate than any other speculative-imaginative fud i've been reading...

Perhaps about 1-2 weeks, I have had an urge to sell. Not just for profit but just sell, permanently. Even a little. To "balance the portfolio" because you never know what happens, good or bad.

Last time I had the same feeling was in September, and I yielded. And felt so good for 1 week. But after 2 months it felt like the stupidest blunder ever.

No, I am not selling this time I just shared this with you as one of the indicators of a bottom.

I don't think we will see 500 ever again  

Good call.

[lunarboy]

So.... about that Bitstamp wall then, just for show? or ready to sell?

It looks like it may have dumped at market.

Haha not that one, the other one    . Its at 598 .. obviously 

Still there last I checked. There was a smaller two days ago that got pulled when the price got too close. I'm wondering the same about this much bigger one?

[counter]

Wow this thread has come right along not that I'm surprised just saying.  Can't get over people claiming that if you believe in a something that isn't printed out of thin air and devaluing consistently then you somehow crazy..  Not much logic from these people but there is a whole bunch if immature name calling to be had.

[rpietila]

I don't think we will see 500 ever again 

I'm sticking with my plan with orders below 500. I'll get myself a few ounces of silver if this wont get filled 

My problem for considering 500 as a bottom is that there are almost 16 millions of active usd swaps at bitfinex and it feels like they are just waiting to get squeezed sooner or later

Do you really think it is likely that Bitfinex could bring down the whole market with just 16 million? I dont think its likely to crash on its own, there is plenty of arbitrage support.

Precisely. The price is getting sticky at these levels. If anyone wants to really buy/sell in this environment, he better just do it piecemeal.

Betting for the foreclosure of leveraged longs in a certain exchange might be very profitable in another kind of situation.

Besides my "I don't think XXX" statements are not equal to "I am 100% sure" statements. Rather it should be interpreted as "My estimation of the probability of XXX (not) happening has just flipped from <50% to >50%". Using percents too much invites trolls, so I try to verbalize.

[eldentyrell]

I see that your username is no longer "rpietila, the Vassal of the Mighty Caesar Imperator Discombobulator Goat III,  Esq".

Do tell.

[Zapffe]

I see that your username is no longer "rpietila, the Vassal of the Mighty Caesar Imperator Discombobulator Goat III,  Esq".

Do tell.

Goat didn't "invest" in the manor "project" ?