rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[rpietila]

We are on the verge of DOOM.

When you feel the FEAR, then BUY.

[AnonyMint]

We are on the verge of DOOM.

When you feel the FEAR, then BUY.

We probably need capitulation first. I think under $300 might do it. When the forum threads go totally negative and no one is hating AnonyMint any more then buy. Hehe.

[rpietila]

[/quote]

We are on the verge of DOOM.

When you feel the FEAR, then BUY.

We probably need capitulation first. I think under $300 might do it. When the forum threads go totally negative and no one is hating AnonyMint any more then buy. Hehe.

I am all fine with going to 300 for a split second, but the chance for the street price going to 300 is pretty slim. In other words, you can perhaps sell a bitcoin for less if you are unlucky, but buying one is difficult Just like with silver going to $8.5 in late 2008  

Visiting 375-400 zone is realistic and would be very good for the future, but even this is <50% in my opinion.

The tax reporting that you claim is the end of bitcoin is a non-issue. You only pay tax if your bitcoins have appreciated against the national currency, so you gain nevertheless, and the wallet software can automatically keep the books and report the gains. If you are considering such a big purchase where the timing of the CGT becomes an issue, then the situation is analogous to the current situation where middle-class people have most of their liquid assets in funds to shield them from inflation.

It is a bit disingenous to believe that losing about 10-30% of the value appreciation of bitcoin when selling, would make people embrace USD. They already buy all kinds of instruments that are subject to the same tax, but do not appreciate 1000% per year, and cannot be used as currency.

Just sell all your bitcoins to me, please.  

I bet you are a hit at parties.

LOL

[AnonyMint]

We probably need capitulation first. I think under $300 might do it. When the forum threads go totally negative and no one is hating AnonyMint any more then buy. Hehe.

I bet you are a hit at parties.

When I am partying do you think I talk about analysis?

I had the Blazer series of never-forgotten parties in High School and University. We have 1000s of people in our house, yard, pool, on the roof, Fire Department showed up due to our bonfire barbecue, etc..

A girl under each arm and welcoming everyone at the door with ice cold beers and personally guiding them to the dance floor, etc...

You see you have skin in this BTC price, I don't. So I can speak from analysis whereas you have to fight your emotions.

Just like with silver going to $8.5 in late 2008  

You remember I was buying 1000oz bars in the lows $9s.

And yes this BTC chart resembles the silver drop from $48 to $25 (as I predicted exactly a year in advance at my published article on marketoracle.co.uk) and then dropped to $17. The $400 level was the $25.

[threecats]

"You are coming to my bandwagon whether you like it or not."

Anonymint. No one is coming to your bandwagon.

1) the IRS regulations are draft form. Smart money & insiders will make sure there is a foreign currency style exemption for normal daily commerce in the final rules.

2) whatever cap gains hurdles remain will be woven in to next generation wallets & payment apps. just as a whole slew of apps are now emerging for doing cap gains on bitcoin trading.

[podyx]

Thoughts/perspective on this?? https://www.tradingview.com/v/7YEmxS3K/
(press the play button to the right)

[AnonyMint]

"You are coming to my bandwagon whether you like it or not."

Anonymint. No one is coming to your bandwagon.

What odds do you place on that statement? (careful because I am going to challenge you to bet me with those odds, put your money where your big mouth is)

1) the IRS regulations are draft form. Smart money & insiders will make sure there is a foreign currency style exemption for normal daily commerce in the final rules.

Hahaha. Want to bet on that too? What odds do you place on this? The exemption will only come if the Bitcoin is a fractional reserve currency transacted offchain and the government effectively controls it.

I'm eager to take your money.

2) whatever cap gains hurdles remain will be woven in to next generation wallets & payment apps. just as a whole slew of apps are now emerging for doing cap gains on bitcoin trading.

Go read my upthread refutation on that.

Ah shit I don't have time to reply to every idiot. Time and time again my predictions come true, and yet the idiots come to come in never ending waves of arrogant ignorance.

[rpietila]

AnonyMint, take it easy! Even I am having a great difficulty at times since most of the people are not as smart as I...

But when compared to you, I feel sorely inferior. How about a nice cigar in Malla soonish...?

[cAPSLOCK]

We probably need capitulation first. I think under $300 might do it. When the forum threads go totally negative and no one is hating AnonyMint any more then buy. Hehe.

Oh God... we ARE doomed.

[Lowryder]

I just wanted to tell you that I am finalizing the purchase of Malla Manor this week, and we will have a party there starting Friday.

https://i.imgur.com/PBCbZKd.png

Malla will be (probably) the first high-class Bitcoin retreat centre in the world. 100% owned by me, it offers 5000 sqm floor area (some under renovation) and currently 127 acres of land. The property is in the middle of beautiful countryside in Estonia, just 1 hour from Tallinn airport.

That place is a total dump... None of what you see in that image is real - the image has been manipulated. Look at the side wall and you can see how bad of shape it really is. Look at the driveway... does that look like anything but a 2D color gradient?

Either rpietila was joking or he is buying a fixer upper.

http://www.mois.ee/pic_viru/malla_tag.jpg

[rpietila]

Since that one was taken, more than 1 million € is invested to the building. My estimate is that 2-4 million more will be required in 3 years.

If full of hotel customers, it can generate 3 million revenue per year. Cost side is less than 1 million. Of course the trick is how to keep it full or how to pay the million in case the house is empty.

This is a Bitcoin project - if Bitcoin succeeds, not only I have lots of money, I also have lots of customers flocking to see me and each other.

If Bitcoin fails, I have neither money, nor customers, and will have to sell it at a loss.

C'est la vie  

[cAPSLOCK]

Since that one was taken, more than 1 million € is invested to the building. My estimate is that 2-4 million more will be required in 3 years.

If full of hotel customers, it can generate 3 million revenue per year. Cost side is less than 1 million. Of course the trick is how to keep it full or how to pay the million in case the house is empty.

This is a Bitcoin project - if Bitcoin succeeds, not only I have lots of money, I also have lots of customers flocking to see me and each other.

If Bitcoin fails, I have neither money, nor customers, and will have to sell it at a loss.

C'est la vie  

It makes me think of this... maybe you need to buy a cloak with a popped collar?

[rpietila]

I have had funnier costumes than that, but the problem is that reporters take photos and upload them to stay forever in the Internet, and the original context (why it is funny/satirical/younameit) is totally lost

[AnonyMint]

I am not gloating about his manor. Only wishing he could have invested that to become $100 millionaire first.

My opinion is Risto is repeating the mistake I made in 2012 and also in 2001 buying remote hideaway land. Perhaps it is a middle-age rite of passage. I don't wish for him to fail with it. I just recognize the pattern. And I don't discourage anyone from joining in his fun there. I thought he was coming to Thailand nearer to me, then suddenly I hear Estonia.

Even $billionaires have to make this mistake at least once in order to learn:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-26/billionaires-buying-islands-off-australia-find-perilous-paradise.html

Except for Buffet who said his bathtub is his beachfront property in his modest Omaha home.

Emotional discipline is as important as cunning math skills. I lack the emotional discipline to be a great speculator. I have excellent endurance discipline meaning I can persevere for long periods of sacrifice (perhaps abetted from being a competitive long-distance runner before), but I am very susceptible to rash short-term decisions and don't like to be on call (tied to a pager) every minute of day and night to sustain flexibility to changing arbitrage opportunities and stop-losses.

I try now to do nothing when I am pressured, i.e. no decision, and try to avoid being in such situations.

[Lowryder]

Since that one was taken, more than 1 million € is invested to the building. My estimate is that 2-4 million more will be required in 3 years.

If full of hotel customers, it can generate 3 million revenue per year. Cost side is less than 1 million. Of course the trick is how to keep it full or how to pay the million in case the house is empty.

This is a Bitcoin project - if Bitcoin succeeds, not only I have lots of money, I also have lots of customers flocking to see me and each other.

If Bitcoin fails, I have neither money, nor customers, and will have to sell it at a loss.

C'est la vie  

I have some history with old buildings in Helsinki, Suomenlinna. A building complex twice as big. Problems with moisture, mold, permits...etc. It costed 8 millions to fix those old houses. Didn't own them thank god, nor paid.
I personally wish you good luck with this. A bold move, I don't have balls to do the same.

Those old manors eat your money and are really, really hard to get rid of.
My old man use to say "it's not how much you make, but how much you manage to keep in the end"

Malla manor will take another 2-4 million before it will bring any money. And after that, I hope you can keep something.

Good luck!

[Zapffe]

I have had funnier costumes than that, but the problem is that reporters take photos and upload them to stay forever in the Internet, and the original context (why it is funny/satirical/younameit) is totally lost

Were they ever funnier then this piece of evidence, shown on the Finnish national TV channel:

http://static.iltalehti.fi/uutiset/13549021_503_uu.jpg

They can't be more embarrassing like that one. Especially with you looking like you aren't kidding around here, and you are actually exhibiting your wealth in this manner with serious intentions. That picture isn't showing you as a very respectable individual. Right?
But we all knew that you were kidding around with this picture, and were just playing a role of an stereo-typical douchebag, just so you could fool everyone. Actually you are an highly skilled businessman, who is a straight shooter and with an impeccable reputation in both Finland and Estonia, right?  

[AnonyMint]

Zapffe why there is bad blood between you and Risto? I never saw him acting unethically.

I know of his business model before so you don't need to detail it. But a daily fix was the way clear the market efficiently which is what was popular as evidenced by his success with it. Are you saying proper disclosure wasn't made for the level of control he had in the fix that was not purely algorithmic? Any way, I know nothing about that if so. I wasn't involved. I was just buying and selling silver briefly and did some trades with Risto who needed to source silver for his growing customer base.

P.S. "They" (I am not clear who is who and what the associations are) banned me from their cryptocrypt forum because I was speaking these heresies about Bitcoin. So I do agree that their ideas about being great managers of the future of Bitcoin is just ego masturbation. They will discover that bottom-up chaos reigns. Society-wide top-down order is always owned by the collective, i.e. government and its coming sinking Titanic effect.

[AnonyMint]

He is just a young man joking around.

And their group seems to have some leanings towards thinking they would be better managers of the future than their current elite, something like a theory that someone has to be the rich so it might as well be them instead of dinosaurs Buffet, Soros, Kissinger, Rockefeller, etc. I am probably not fully capturing their psychology (and I don't even know if it is a cohesive grouping nor who the members are) but none of us are perfect.

Don't all men want to be a king of their home life at least?

I guess I despise politics so much that I don't pay attention to whether someone would be a good leader or not, because I believe in leaderless organization as much as possible.

I do however recognize that a software project such as Bitcoin or altcoin requires a Benevolent Dictator otherwise chaos, bickering and nothing gets done. Gavin may be the BDFL in the Bitcoin system, and we see he meets with the CIA, Mt.Gox, etc..

Any way I don't won't to win political points. I want to win insurmountable algorithmic and feature points.

Add: putting it on national TV seems to imply Risto is still hated by the TPTB or at least some powerful group in Finland? So perhaps that paints the understanding that he is on our side of the battle ahead.

[Zapffe]

Zapffe why there is bad blood between you and Risto? I never saw him acting unethically.

I know of his business model before so you don't need to detail it. But a daily fix was the way clear the market efficiently which is what was popular as evidenced by his success with it. Are you saying proper disclosure wasn't made for the level of control he had in the fix that was not purely algorithmic? Any way, I know nothing about that if so. I wasn't involved. I was just buying and selling silver briefly and did some trades with Risto who needed to source silver for his growing customer base.

P.S. "They" (I am not clear who is who and what the associations are) banned me from their cryptocrypt forum because I was speaking these heresies about Bitcoin. So I do agree that their ideas about being great managers of the future of Bitcoin is just ego masturbation. They will discover that bottom-up chaos reigns. Society-wide top-down order is always owned by the collective, i.e. government and its coming sinking Titanic effect.

Bad blood is a little strong phrase for that. It's mainly my personal issue with a certain type of character. He has constantly stated that he is planning to leave this forum. I think that I should express my issue while I still can.

[TERA]

GG risto