rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[seleme]

I guess you are not assuming cigars are in any way healthier than cigarettes?

[rpietila]

I guess you are not assuming cigars are in any way healthier than cigarettes?

Well, as for me, I smoke because of my health, it keeps the mood stable. In case anyone was surprised how I can perform so well

A cigarette is a factory-made product composed of 600 ingredients that produce 7,000 chemicals when burned, many of them carcinogenic. It is inhaled.

A cigar is a hand-made product composed of 1 ingredient: sun-dried, fermented tobacco leaf with no additives. It is also not inhaled.

Even according to the most propagandish site I found, cigars are healthier than cigarettes:

Are cigars less hazardous than cigarettes?

Because all tobacco products are harmful and cause cancer, the use of these products is strongly discouraged. There is no safe level of tobacco use. People who use any type of tobacco product should be encouraged to quit.

[creekbore]

Risto, I have a question

I'm curious on how much you spend each month on quality cigars?

And hot towels.

I don't know what are hot towels, but cigars cost between EUR 10-60 and I consume about 20 per month. I would say that it is slightly less expensive than owning a car (I sold the family cars a few months ago).

Funny thing is that by smoking cigarettes which do not have any known health benefits (on the contrary they are harmful!) you are set back about EUR 200-300 per month. So just by doubling it, you get to enjoy the best of the best, instead of worst of the worst 

Sorry Risto, just being silly.  You get hot towels on flights (y'know they hand them out)...I always imagine you smoking cigars and getting your hot towels over at cryptocrypt.

Anyway, you know cigars have pretty much the same carcinogenic impacts on the body as cigarettes?
Being a scandy you probably have used snus too...that's pretty carcinogenic too.
But hey you only live (and die) once...no point worrying about that stuff, when your numbers up, your numbers up.

[bangersdad]

I guess you are not assuming cigars are in any way healthier than cigarettes?

Well, as for me, I smoke because of my health, it keeps the mood stable. In case anyone was surprised how I can perform so well

A cigarette is a factory-made product composed of 600 ingredients that produce 7,000 chemicals when burned, many of them carcinogenic. It is inhaled.

A cigar is a hand-made product composed of 1 ingredient: sun-dried, fermented tobacco leaf with no additives. It is also not inhaled.

Even according to the most propagandish site I found, cigars are healthier than cigarettes:

Are cigars less hazardous than cigarettes?

Because all tobacco products are harmful and cause cancer, the use of these products is strongly discouraged. There is no safe level of tobacco use. People who use any type of tobacco product should be encouraged to quit.

yes i agree - it is not the nicotene which causes most addiction in commercial cigarettes, but the other chemicals. I only smoke a brand called pueblo - which is organic, and produced in the same way as the native americans used to produce tobacco. One cigarette of it satisfies you for hours, you do not get any cravings to reload like you do off commercial cigarettes, and even if i stop for a few days i still feel fine. I swear its all the other chemicals in commercial cigarettes which cause most of the withdrawal symptoms.

if i was as rich as Rpietila i would most definately smoke cigars.

[MatTheCat]

Such stats:

March 28, 2014 - 10:01:01 AM CET. 16,179,745.59 USD 9,530.79 BTC 23,740.40 LTC
March 30, 2014 - 10:07:56 AM CEST. 17,255,586.49 USD 8,814.56 BTC 23,852.00 LTC
March 30, 2014 - 01:44:49 PM CEST. 17,297,316.35 USD 7,837.08 BTC 24,669.27 LTC
March 30, 2014 - 03:37:31 PM CEST. 16,070,695.32 USD 6,807.79 BTC 23,030.25 LTC

* Shorts bought back
* 1.2m of longs gave up

Wallie wallguy added some bids half an hour ago (I'm on GMT+1):

15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 454.00   |   USDSUM = $ 109068.96
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 449.50   |   USDSUM = $ 107987.88
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 445.00   |   USDSUM = $ 106906.80
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 440.50   |   USDSUM = $ 105825.72
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 436.00   |   USDSUM = $ 104744.64
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 431.50   |   USDSUM = $ 103663.56
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 427.00   |   USDSUM = $ 102582.48
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 422.50   |   USDSUM = $ 101501.40
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 418.00   |   USDSUM = $ 100420.32
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 413.50   |   USDSUM = $  99339.24
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 409.00   |   USDSUM = $  98258.16
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 404.50   |   USDSUM = $  97177.08
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 400.00   |   USDSUM = $  96096.00
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 395.50   |   USDSUM = $  95014.92
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 391.00   |   USDSUM = $  93933.84
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 386.50   |   USDSUM = $  92852.76
15:20   +  BID:     240.24000000  BTC   @   $ 382.00   |   USDSUM = $  91771.68

And then there is this guy:

15:40 +  BID:     438.00000000  BTC   @   $ 402.51   |   USDSUM = $ 176299.38

'Interesting' bidding. Have you seen if these bids have been getting triggered, or they more of the 'vanishing' type?

Regardless of the intentions of who is behind those bids, without them, the Ask side of the order book would be looking much barer and that might set of a bit of a panic.

[Trolololo]

Last threads in Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation (Moderator: Blitz­) > 


- $442 -> $0, Bitcoin ponzi bubble brusted, you lost your money!

- Sentiment incredibly bearish

- Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest

- Bitcoin down to $483 ¿!?

- Denial is fading, fear is approaching

- URGENT, Bitcoin is on the verge of collapse !!!

[RAJSALLIN]

Last threads in Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation (Moderator: Blitz­) > 


- $442 -> $0, Bitcoin ponzi bubble brusted, you lost your money!

- Sentiment incredibly bearish

- Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest

- Bitcoin down to $483 ¿!?

- Denial is fading, fear is approaching

- URGENT, Bitcoin is on the verge of collapse !!!



Yes this is the sentiment I've been feeling the last few days. Question is if it's enough or we need even more puke like sentiment.

[foody]

Hey,

I'm just jumping into this so let me know if these points ( http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/03/bye-bye-bitcoin/ ) have been refuted elsewhere.

This would be a serious blow, since roughly 60% of global Bitcoin trading occurs in China. Bitcoin prices fell by almost 10% today.

Do we have these figures? How credible is this?

The IRS ruled that Bitcoin and other virtual currencies are property, not currency... they are subject to capital gains taxation ... This means Bitcoins are not fungible, and that makes it unworkable as a currency. If I have to figure out which particular Bitcoin in my wallet I want to spend and what the tax treatment will be, Bitcoin just doesn’t work as a commercial medium of exchange. Bitcoin still works as a speculative medium, but Bitcoin’s claim has always been to being more than the latest iteration of the trading sardines–it aspired to be a commercial medium.

Assuming BTC is no longer a viable medium of exchange, what future utility can be offered by bitcoin. Are we banking on future stability? I still haven't seen an argument underlying the fundamental utility of BTC assuming continued volatility. I know the primary focus here has been short term technical analyses, e.g. user adoption. I want to continue investing during these lows but based on the [little] information gathered, the political and legal landscape seems to be growing more turbulent. These are being considered? Are you figures being updated to account for these things? Do they not matter? Can someone summarize the current view/data contributing to the long term bullish sentiment?

I'm a noob to the forums so any help/guidance is appreciated.

[sgbett]

Anonymint - Don't bother with your standard (arrogant) "you don't understand" response just because I don't lap up your every word.

Breaking News! Smoking gun! Eyewitness account released by well known Jim Rickards (former intelligence agent turned analyst and author of best seller, Currency Wars) who was in the room when the CIA was doing the insider trading on option puts against the two airlines involved in 9/11. Corroborated by Max Keiser who was talking to Cantor Fitzgerald brokers who told him they were betting short against bombings and airplane attacks imminent on New York.

So STFU mofo! You dumb ass white boy slave.

You've had all these prior examples of false-flags, e.g. Pearl Harbor, Reichstag fire, etc. and you see the clear motivation for 9/11 was the Patriot Act and subsequent executive orders and laws that have created all seeing police and tax slavery state exposed by Edward Snowden. Yet you still want to believe your white world isn't so corrupt as it is. You want to live in your fantasy bubble.

The only thing you might understand is "Mooo. Mooo".

Arrogance? No. Just don't want to join dumb ass fools. I prefer humble, but am I supposed to just fall into the queue with you chattel.

It has nothing to do with lapping up my word. It has to do with you being too lazy to actually research. If you did the research, you would understand why it is physically impossible for the steel buildings to entirely collapse from fire and debris. Add to that free fall velocity of collapse, meaning no resistance. The only way for WTC7 to collapse the way it did was demolition. And if you are not an engineer then maybe you don't understand that, but we engineers understand why. And yes in fact the building was evacuated several times for long periods leading up to this. And in fact there were dozens of workers in the elevator shafts of the twin towers (where the structural steel beams were) for many weeks leading up to the demolitions. If you did some research and capable of understanding engineering and science, then you would know this.

This is another example of what I was explaining upthread (about Bitcoin's white male nerd demographic) wherein we can be separated from the masses who will never be able to comprehend the engineering about 9/11 and so will believe the government's impossible concocted whitewash (or in Bitcoin's case masses are not adopting, only white males against central banking are). We see the same ignorance of science or facts mechanism in play with all the current things white people are fooled into fighting for (to do what the elite want), e.g. Bitcoin, man-made climate change, discrimination, feminism, environment, etc.. The elite lull you into your comfort zone where you can be manipulated with emotional propaganda, e.g. "save those cute polar bears or cute little African kids".

Cantor Fitzgerald traders were insider-trading the options on the attacks that killed them.  Unbelievable.  Insider information provided by Jim Rickards in his new book The Death of Money reveals the CIA was aware of trading on targeted airlines leading up to 9/11.  Max Keiser corroborates this with his own experience.  Amazing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI0GUdYwS68&list=UUvsye7V9psc-APX6wV1twLg

People always ask why 9/11 whistleblowers don't come forward.  This is why.  They are afraid to speak out too soon.  Many have been killed.  But enough people are out there, keeping themselves in the public view so that they can safely reveal their piece of the puzzle when the time is right.

We natives refuse to be slaves (I am % Cherokee) and I see the same daily here in the Philippines, they refuse to obey laws (and that is why I love living here). Some white people (or all except for those who adjust) hate it here because no one follows the rules. They complain incessantly and everyone just leaves the room and lets them blabber to themselves. It is quite hilarious to see the white control freaks go into a livid hissy fit (reminds me of a child whining on the floor of Toys-R-Us about a toy) because the hotel staff refuses to listen to their tirade, wherein the staff escapes to and is giggling in the back office. Here you have no law support to tell your neighbor to stop blasting their karaoke all night for days and weeks. Instead if you want peace, you better buy a large enough area of land. And that is a free market. No big brother to hold your feeble hand.

Even if you think you've enslaved a filipino, they will be doing what ever they damn well please when you turn your head. They live for the moment, so it is very difficult to change their motivation to what you want them to do. Of course I also have white traits in me, such as planning for the future. So it is interesting how I try to balance the two cultures that inhabit myself.

And those armchair sociologists who accuse of me of being racist are equivalently insane. Should I be racist against white or brown people when I am both? Nonsense.

chill. the fuck. out.

You have no idea what I think about this stuff, so your diatribe trying to convince me of things is pretty misguided.

do i think 9/11 was an inside job? yes. herp.
 
do i think there is a a super secret cabal in charge of the whole world. no.

the truth is likely far more mundane than the hollywood NWO scenario.

some powerful/rich guys sometimes do some really bad stuff to stay in charge/rich. its always been like that. just the same as there have always been other guys who think they are super genius for figuring that out. it's not 'breaking news'.

[MahaRamana]

Hey,

I'm just jumping into this so let me know if these points ( http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/03/bye-bye-bitcoin/ ) have been refuted elsewhere.

This would be a serious blow, since roughly 60% of global Bitcoin trading occurs in China. Bitcoin prices fell by almost 10% today.

Do we have these figures? How credible is this?

The IRS ruled that Bitcoin and other virtual currencies are property, not currency... they are subject to capital gains taxation ... This means Bitcoins are not fungible, and that makes it unworkable as a currency. If I have to figure out which particular Bitcoin in my wallet I want to spend and what the tax treatment will be, Bitcoin just doesn’t work as a commercial medium of exchange. Bitcoin still works as a speculative medium, but Bitcoin’s claim has always been to being more than the latest iteration of the trading sardines–it aspired to be a commercial medium.

Assuming BTC is no longer a viable medium of exchange, what future utility can be offered by bitcoin. Are we banking on future stability? I still haven't seen an argument underlying the fundamental utility of BTC assuming continued volatility. I know the primary focus here has been short term technical analyses, e.g. user adoption. I want to continue investing during these lows but based on the [little] information gathered, the political and legal landscape seems to be growing more turbulent. These are being considered? Are you figures being updated to account for these things? Do they not matter? Can someone summarize the current view/data contributing to the long term bullish sentiment?

I'm a noob to the forums so any help/guidance is appreciated.

Assuming BTC is no longer a viable medium of exchange, what future utility can be offered by bitcoin

There are two things to distinguish : bitcoin as a payment technology and bitcoin as a unit of value. These are two completely different things and most of the confusion in the media and in the mind of people is linked to the fact that we have named the platform/ecosystem and the "system units" with the exact same name.
The author of the bye bye bitcoin article assumes that bitcoin needs to be used as a unit of monetary value to have a commercial role, which is absolutely not the case.
Good and services can be denominated in FIAT currency, but bought through a web of services that are built on the bitcoin technology rather than through Visa Mastercard for exemple.
Where this leads us is that bitcoin will not be used that much as a direct payment unit by the masses. In such scenario, we would not see prices denominated in bitcoins and people paying from their personal bitcoin wallet due to the non-fongibility concerns created by authorities like the IRS.
However, we can still see the huge development in the use of the bitcoin technology in the context of exclusive FIAT denomination of goods and services and exclusive FIAT denomination of the funds of the consumer. This is what is completely missed by that Georgetown law professor who mixes the bitcoin technology with the unit of monetary exchange function.
What must be understood is that each bitcoin is nothing else than a piece of the bitcoin system. Wether individual consumers need bitcoin or not to make payments is not very relevant if they are going to use a service that does use bitcoin. Because in that case the bitcoin will need to be held by the companies who operate the services that are based on the technology. If large volumes are traded on services that are using this technology, the bitcoin value will have to reflect in FIAT value, the FIAT value of these trading volumes.

Bitcoin is growing up from a gadget that people are sending directly between themselves to being a payment system technology. Claims that the technology is not suitable are based on the current experience based on the current ecosystem in which there are almost no big companies offering user interfaces, offering insurances, hiding the complexities at technical, fiscal, legal and all other levels.

Imagine for exemple the application of the "pay for online content" use, where website and content providers can ask the payment of a fee for a direct access to their content wether it is a single article, a video or whatever. Today they have to do it as a recurring monthly fee because most people would not bother going through a purchase with credit card to pay a few cents and the transaction fees would not make it possible. But if people know of a company who is managing this, you just install a browser plugin, you have your credit card linked with your account with that company, and that company gives you access to all the content, automatically deducting your account of the few USD cents. What happened behind the doors ? There was a bitcoin based transaction at the moment you authorised your browser plugin to charge you a fee for that content : the company offering you that browser plugin will send bitcoin to the company having the deal with the content provider. But wether you are the content consumer or the content provider, you are not concerned about it. Only the company offering the service to you and the company offering content providers to be paid will be using the technology and will have used a portion of the 12 million BTC "system units" in existence to reflect the monetary value of the transaction.

So, no. BTC will not replace USD or EUR in the monetary denomination because it cannot be a monetary unit. It's volatility and non-fungibility in some countries make it impossible. It is rather a share of the usability of an ecosystem. Even if the analogy is far from complete, we can say that you don't need a Facebook share to use Facebook. Yet the facebook share value reflects the amount of users that are using the platform. If it was misunderstood that one had to actually buy Facebook shares to open a Facebook account and use the platform, it would be easy for experts to claim that this social website would not work. Not because the social website could not function, but because of their misunderstanding.

What we are seeing right now is the death of the dream of the new universal monetary unit that some imagined BTC would have become. At some higher level it will always be a unit of exchange, but not for the masses. At the same time, after a technological breakthrough, we are witnessing the birth of an ecosystem of services that would offer tremendous value to a big portion of the population. Today, it seems that this ecosystem is going to be built on 12 million "system units" or "shares" called bitcoins, which is what gives them a speculative and theoretical value far beyond today's value.

The value of Bitcoin must go down for all that it cannot and will not be. Similarly, it will go up for all that it can and will be.

[rpietila]

What we are seeing right now is the death of the dream of the new universal monetary unit that some imagined BTC would have become. At some higher level it will always be a unit of exchange, but not for the masses. At the same time, after a technological breakthrough, we are witnessing the birth of an ecosystem of services that would offer tremendous value to a big portion of the population. Today, it seems that this ecosystem is going to be built on 12 million "system units" or "shares" called bitcoins, which is what gives them a speculative and theoretical value far beyond today's value.

The value of Bitcoin must go down for all that it cannot and will not be. Similarly, it will go up for all that it can and will be.

ADD: It is official, bitcoin is now dead. So the average historical return for the next 12 months is about 1,000%. DYODD.

[GigaCoin]

Last threads in Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation (Moderator: Blitz­) > 


- $442 -> $0, Bitcoin ponzi bubble brusted, you lost your money!

- Sentiment incredibly bearish

- Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest

- Bitcoin down to $483 ¿!?

- Denial is fading, fear is approaching

- URGENT, Bitcoin is on the verge of collapse !!!

The forums activity in general is pretty dead actually, a lot of new people lost money i assume (bought at the $1000) so they observe instead of participate. New memberships are also low and i don't see old timers as i used to, it does feel kinda deserted lol.

[rpietila]

Last threads in Bitcoin Forum > Economy > Economics > Speculation (Moderator: Blitz­) > 


- $442 -> $0, Bitcoin ponzi bubble brusted, you lost your money!

- Sentiment incredibly bearish

- Prepare for Bitcoin $266 Retest

- Bitcoin down to $483 ¿!?

- Denial is fading, fear is approaching

- URGENT, Bitcoin is on the verge of collapse !!!

The forums activity in general is pretty dead actually, a lot of new people lost money i assume (bought at the $1000) so they observe instead of participate. New memberships are also low and i don't see old timers as i used to, it does feel kinda deserted lol.

Exactly as it should be. Now we are finally there.

I am interested in any kind of deal which effectively means that you will have insurance that your BTC can be sold for $400 regardless of the numbers in any exchange. (It is called "buying a put option"). BTC100 minimum. PM.

[cAPSLOCK]

I am interested in any kind of deal which effectively means that you will have insurance that your BTC can be sold for $400 regardless of the numbers in any exchange. (It is called "buying a put option"). BTC100 minimum. PM.

Are you saying you are truly interested in selling 100btc puts?

This represents too much of my holdings to play with... but I could be interested in a smaller amount.

Not sure yet.  It's foggy out there now.

[cosmofly]

good to know rpietila is exiting his position from Bitcoin

[rpietila]

Are you saying you are truly interested in selling 100btc puts?

Yes, it makes sense in my situation. I am not keen on sending lots of money to exchanges to increase the position (lost some on Gox), but would like to increase it (or pocket the premium if it never goes that low).

good to know rpietila is exiting his position from Bitcoin

Selling puts is actually increasing my position. Whether the total position changes or not, you cannot determine unless knowing my accounts.

[foody]

Hey,

I'm just jumping into this so let me know if these points ( http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/03/bye-bye-bitcoin/ ) have been refuted elsewhere.

This would be a serious blow, since roughly 60% of global Bitcoin trading occurs in China. Bitcoin prices fell by almost 10% today.

Do we have these figures? How credible is this?

The IRS ruled that Bitcoin and other virtual currencies are property, not currency... they are subject to capital gains taxation ... This means Bitcoins are not fungible, and that makes it unworkable as a currency. If I have to figure out which particular Bitcoin in my wallet I want to spend and what the tax treatment will be, Bitcoin just doesn’t work as a commercial medium of exchange. Bitcoin still works as a speculative medium, but Bitcoin’s claim has always been to being more than the latest iteration of the trading sardines–it aspired to be a commercial medium.

Assuming BTC is no longer a viable medium of exchange, what future utility can be offered by bitcoin. Are we banking on future stability? I still haven't seen an argument underlying the fundamental utility of BTC assuming continued volatility. I know the primary focus here has been short term technical analyses, e.g. user adoption. I want to continue investing during these lows but based on the [little] information gathered, the political and legal landscape seems to be growing more turbulent. These are being considered? Are you figures being updated to account for these things? Do they not matter? Can someone summarize the current view/data contributing to the long term bullish sentiment?

I'm a noob to the forums so any help/guidance is appreciated.

Assuming BTC is no longer a viable medium of exchange, what future utility can be offered by bitcoin

There are two things to distinguish : bitcoin as a payment technology and bitcoin as a unit of value. These are two completely different things and most of the confusion in the media and in the mind of people is linked to the fact that we have named the platform/ecosystem and the "system units" with the exact same name.
The author of the bye bye bitcoin article assumes that bitcoin needs to be used as a unit of monetary value to have a commercial role, which is absolutely not the case.
Good and services can be denominated in FIAT currency, but bought through a web of services that are built on the bitcoin technology rather than through Visa Mastercard for exemple.
Where this leads us is that bitcoin will not be used that much as a direct payment unit by the masses. In such scenario, we would not see prices denominated in bitcoins and people paying from their personal bitcoin wallet due to the non-fongibility concerns created by authorities like the IRS.
However, we can still see the huge development in the use of the bitcoin technology in the context of exclusive FIAT denomination of goods and services and exclusive FIAT denomination of the funds of the consumer. This is what is completely missed by that Georgetown law professor who mixes the bitcoin technology with the unit of monetary exchange function.
What must be understood is that each bitcoin is nothing else than a piece of the bitcoin system. Wether individual consumers need bitcoin or not to make payments is not very relevant if they are going to use a service that does use bitcoin. Because in that case the bitcoin will need to be held by the companies who operate the services that are based on the technology. If large volumes are traded on services that are using this technology, the bitcoin value will have to reflect in FIAT value, the FIAT value of these trading volumes.

Bitcoin is growing up from a gadget that people are sending directly between themselves to being a payment system technology. Claims that the technology is not suitable are based on the current experience based on the current ecosystem in which there are almost no big companies offering user interfaces, offering insurances, hiding the complexities at technical, fiscal, legal and all other levels.

Imagine for exemple the application of the "pay for online content" use, where website and content providers can ask the payment of a fee for a direct access to their content wether it is a single article, a video or whatever. Today they have to do it as a recurring monthly fee because most people would not bother going through a purchase with credit card to pay a few cents and the transaction fees would not make it possible. But if people know of a company who is managing this, you just install a browser plugin, you have your credit card linked with your account with that company, and that company gives you access to all the content, automatically deducting your account of the few USD cents. What happened behind the doors ? There was a bitcoin based transaction at the moment you authorised your browser plugin to charge you a fee for that content : the company offering you that browser plugin will send bitcoin to the company having the deal with the content provider. But wether you are the content consumer or the content provider, you are not concerned about it. Only the company offering the service to you and the company offering content providers to be paid will be using the technology and will have used a portion of the 12 million BTC "system units" in existence to reflect the monetary value of the transaction.

So, no. BTC will not replace USD or EUR in the monetary denomination because it cannot be a monetary unit. It's volatility and non-fungibility in some countries make it impossible. It is rather a share of the usability of an ecosystem. Even if the analogy is far from complete, we can say that you don't need a Facebook share to use Facebook. Yet the facebook share value reflects the amount of users that are using the platform. If it was misunderstood that one had to actually buy Facebook shares to open a Facebook account and use the platform, it would be easy for experts to claim that this social website would not work. Not because the social website could not function, but because of their misunderstanding.

What we are seeing right now is the death of the dream of the new universal monetary unit that some imagined BTC would have become. At some higher level it will always be a unit of exchange, but not for the masses. At the same time, after a technological breakthrough, we are witnessing the birth of an ecosystem of services that would offer tremendous value to a big portion of the population. Today, it seems that this ecosystem is going to be built on 12 million "system units" or "shares" called bitcoins, which is what gives them a speculative and theoretical value far beyond today's value.

The value of Bitcoin must go down for all that it cannot and will not be. Similarly, it will go up for all that it can and will be.

So this renders all of the speculation regarding mass adoption rate null. In the hypothetical you offered wouldn't fongibility still be a significant issue considering capital gains? Does your funds transfer theory of btc assume significantly less volatility? We know that the minting rate decreases over time and that demand will eventually taper off as well. How do we know there will be an acceptable rate of deflation? Won't any deflation require deduction of capital gains for each transaction? Is this not an issue or did I misunderstand something?

In terms of investing, is it possible to estimate a value for that hypothetical market? Shouldn't we shift our focus to determining the utility as a medium for efficient transfers. The current fervor has assumed adoption on an epic scale. Would this not lead to a massive price correction, or are there non-apparent price floors at play?



 

[rpietila]

Because price is now low, people are making this supposed loss of fungibility a big issue, as if it was the end of everything. We have been dealing with this kind of legislation in the PM industry for decades and it is not a big deal. It is not the reason why PM's are not practical to be used as money.

Sure you have to pay taxes on gains, but the fact that you have gains should be the interesting thing here. Even if there was a blockchain-level registration of all your bitcoins, and requirement to keep track of the cost basis of every satoshi, you would not even notice given proper software. This ruling is the beginning of all good things bitcoin, except the loss of anonymity which wasn't there to begin with.

Besides I am sick with this US-centricism. There are 220 other legislations out there to choose from if you don't like the ruling. In my opinion it was very reasonable and I can only dream of 18% cgt rates here..

TL;DR: You are just panicking. Sell all your bitcoins to me.

[T.Stuart]

Because price is now low, people are making this supposed loss of fungibility a big issue, as if it was the end of everything. We have been dealing with this kind of legislation in the PM industry for decades and it is not a big deal. It is not the reason why PM's are not practical to be used as money.

Sure you have to pay taxes on gains, but the fact that you have gains should be the interesting thing here. Even if there was a blockchain-level registration of all your bitcoins, and requirement to keep track of the cost basis of every satoshi, you would not even notice given proper software. This ruling is the beginning of all good things bitcoin, except the loss of anonymity which wasn't there to begin with.

Besides I am sick with this US-centricism. There are 220 other legislations out there to choose from if you don't like the ruling. In my opinion it was very reasonable and I can only dream of 18% cgt rates here..

I would imagine that being programmable money this fungibility issue could actually be resolved in quite a clever automated way.

[rpietila]

I would imagine that being programmable money this fungibility issue could actually be resolved in quite a clever automated way.

What a wallet software needs to do is that every time you receive bitcoins, it prompts you to enter a "fiat cost basis" in other words how much you paid for them. If not entered, it uses a daily average. When you spend bitcoins, you can order it to automatically spend the ones where you pay the least tax. Because bitcoins are NONfungible, the taxman must accept this. You can always review the balance and print out the tax form.

This is actually better than with precious metals, because they are defined fungible, and I must use FIFO accounting. This tailormade accounting is way better

Only way when you must pay a lot of tax is when both of the following are fulfilled:
a) your expenditures are more than your income - otherwise you can spend your income, acquired at about the same price
b) bitcoin price has risen a lot - making great taxable gains for the early purchases

If you think about the situation more carefully, I am sure you agree that it is only fair to be taxed if and only if you are living off your obscene bitcoin gains, and not taxed otherwise.

LOL