rpietila Wall Observer - the Quality TA Thread ;)

[bitfair]

I suppose that when you say the historical distribution of log returns, you mean without regard to phase of the bubble cycle. Right?

Correct.

If that is what you did, then perhaps by analyzing each of the previous bubbles you could obtain 10 deciles by partitioning each bubble. Then you could run ten times your existing simulation on each of the 10 decile's distribution.

My own projection of future bitcoin price possibilities heavily depends upon guessing where we are in the bubble cycle. Because I think we are near a bottom, I expect much higher prices this summer as a result.

I can think of a complication or two fitting the deciles, so if that is something that you have no interest in doing, then I have the data to perform a stochastic monte carlo simulation myself.

Not entirely sure what you mean, but in my current (mis-)interpretation of it, I'm not sure it would be a very useful exercise, since I don't consider bubbles to be so predictable and/or uniform. I would be more inclined to consider that a Monte Carlo simulation based on historical data takes on an appropriate amount of bubblyness, which, when averaged out over 50k simulated price paths, are generally smoothed out. If you look at a single generated price path, you clearly see bubbles etc. with characteristics similar to what we have seen historically -- but if you generate 50k paths and summarize them, then the bubbles disappear and the general trend remains. That was kind of the point, and I sidestep any personal opinions on where we are in "the bubble".

Nice. Another refinement might be to take a vol trend line and scale log returns accordingly.

Scale how? And where can I find reliable and representative numbers for volume? In this market, I'm very skeptical to volume figures: I believe the exchanges reflect the general price quite well, but I don't believe the volume on the exchanges is representative for volume traded in total.

[cAPSLOCK]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

Original position reclaimed at 423.  Profit waiting on sidelines for dip to 409.  Or will reinvest if we hold >465.

[aminorex]

Nice. Another refinement might be to take a vol trend line and scale log returns accordingly.

Scale how? And where can I find reliable and representative numbers for volume? In this market, I'm very skeptical to volume figures: I believe the exchanges reflect the general price quite well, but I don't believe the volume on the exchanges is representative for volume traded in total.

i mean volatility, sorry.  volatility is declining.  your log deltas are too big.   take a linear regressor for the volatility, scale the increments accordingly.  should be slightly better prediction.

[podyx]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

God damn, risto is a dangerous jungle beast

However, despite all this bearish sentiment we are still going down. Why

[cAPSLOCK]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

God damn, risto is a dangerous jungle beast

However, despite all this bearish sentiment we are still going down. Why

Sorry..  That was a misquote when I was deleting nested quotes.  Risto has NOT been suggesting selling.  In fact he chided me for being reckless in this case.  I got lucky though.

[kdrop22]

Right, I don't think we've seen anything interesting so far on the altcoin scene. As someone put it, it's all a big experiment.
Today, they offer about no interest in comparison with Bitcoin. I am not concerned/interested about the past altcoin scene but rather more with the future.

I kinda hate Altcoins...  but Counterparty (XCP) is on the verge of a working trustless distributed exchange.

https://counterwallet.co/

Pretty interesting to me.

Yes, I like them as well. Quite innovative -> Issue Stocks, bonds and pay dividends. There is a distributed exchange as well.

[AnonyMint]

Shoot the messenger. 

[AnonyMint]

Bitshares are talking about trustees.  Haven't seen this idea since solidcoin.  I've almost sold my protoshares.

I publicly told bytemaster months ago that he is a closet socialist/collectivist (had so many indications from his design philosophies), not a true free market thinker. He quacks Austrian economics, but he waddles like a Communist.

I know this is not TA, but I want to bring to everyone's attention the innovations described here: http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/22m063/blockchain_20_let_a_thousand_chains_blossom/

This removes one of the most important threats to Bitcoin, namely, dilution by alt-coins.

Hahaha, so we can't innovate mining. Perfect.

Have fun Adam. Sorry you are not going to be able to save Bitcoin, nor restrict crypto-coins to 21 million. Your goals are flawed.

[cAPSLOCK]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

Original position reclaimed at 423.  Profit waiting on sidelines for dip to 409.  Or will reinvest if we hold >465.

And profits back in at 410.  Cross fingers.

[rpietila]

This feels like a good selling spot ~459 for a quickish trade.  I will buy back at ~421 or so within 72hrs.

God damn, risto is a dangerous jungle beast

However, despite all this bearish sentiment we are still going down. Why

Sorry..  That was a misquote when I was deleting nested quotes.  Risto has NOT been suggesting selling.  In fact he chided me for being reckless in this case.  I got lucky though.

LOL. Good call.

I prefer not selling in these situations, because - you will soon see why 

[magicmexican]

Low 2400's double (and longterm tripple) bottom on huobi would be nice, but i got a feeling that we did not see the bottom yet.

[Pruden]

The low volume is encouraging, panic should have arrived by now. Maybe there are no more nuts to be shaken off the tree?

What's clear is that any whale has already had several opportunities over several weeks to sell at minimum slippage but hasn't.

[coolbeans94]

Reddit r/Bitcoin has less than 50 new users per day. That used to be over 1000 new ones per day for weeks.

Bitcointalk had 45800 new members last month though and that was a record so growth is still happening.

I think it does seem like the press spurs new interest and it has been fairly quiet this past week or so. 

That doesn't mean anything. Trolls are creating multiple accounts all the time.

[MahaRamana]

The low volume is encouraging, panic should have arrived by now. Maybe there are no more nuts to be shaken off the tree?

What's clear is that any whale has already had several opportunities over several weeks to sell at minimum slippage but hasn't.

400 does not look like it will hold. We broke 300 EUR by the same occasion.
Cheap coins !

EDIT : so far so good, impressively held strong momentum

As anticipated yesterday, we had our "news" : http://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-crashes-chinese-exchanges-stop-bank-deposits/

Are we done with it now ?

[doctor877]

An question for rpietilä, but others can provide insight.

If 400 is really the bottom even with these new China news, how fast do you think the recovery will start to begin?

[MahaRamana]

An question for rpietilä, but others can provide insight.

If 400 is really the bottom even with these new China news, how fast do you think the recovery will start to begin?

He already provided his insight about this and said that if 400 is not breached, we should be above 500 by the 15 April or so and on our gradual move up, with a new all time high during the summer. Most of the gains towards the all time high happening in a very short timeframe.

[rpietila]

An question for rpietilä, but others can provide insight.

If 400 is really the bottom even with these new China news, how fast do you think the recovery will start to begin?

He already provided his insight about this and said that if 400 is not breached, we should be above 500 by the 15 April or so and on our gradual move up, with a new all time high during the summer. Most of the gains towards the all time high happening in a very short timeframe.

Yes, except that I promised 500+ by the end of the month (not 15th). Otherwise correct and despite that we touched 400, my view has not changed. Failure to breach it will signal to everyone that the capitulation phase is over and we move on to the next phase, building a launchpad for the assault of the ATH.

[jmw74]

I think at least as far as China affects the price, this was probably the bottom.

I'm certainly no expert, but it looks like the Chinese government is trying to close off all uses of bitcoin to circumvent their capital controls.  However, people in China can and do circumvent those controls in other ways.  So it remains to be seen how bitcoin fairs in comparison to those other ways.  If you are a Chinese citizen who wishes to get capital out of the country, it certainly is much easier to use bitcoin, if you can manage to buy it in sufficient quantity.

The government may make it so hard to buy bitcoin that there are better circumvention methods, or it may remain one of the viable methods for quite some time.

Personally I don't think the Chinese government will allow bitcoin to be an easy method to avoid capital control.  They will continue to crack down until it's no easier than any other method.  China will never really be "out", but the frenzy there is over and it will never return.  I think the market has priced that in.  I actually think the 10% dip last night was an overreaction.

[magicmexican]

^

I dont know about that, market is retarded, it reacts to every piece of news from China. So far its been like 1 Huobi bank and "not sure about the rest". If any more banks will follow - i think people would dump without thinking too much

[BitChick]

An question for rpietilä, but others can provide insight.

If 400 is really the bottom even with these new China news, how fast do you think the recovery will start to begin?

He already provided his insight about this and said that if 400 is not breached, we should be above 500 by the 15 April or so and on our gradual move up, with a new all time high during the summer. Most of the gains towards the all time high happening in a very short timeframe.

Yes, except that I promised 500+ by the end of the month (not 15th). Otherwise correct and despite that we touched 400, my view has not changed. Failure to breach it will signal to everyone that the capitulation phase is over and we move on to the next phase, building a launchpad for the assault of the ATH.

Your words are like water to a parched tongue.  Thanks Risto for keeping me encouraged when it gets a bit depressing.