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bitcoinsrus
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April 10, 2014, 08:40:19 PM |
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Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3! Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
When do you think it will go back up? |
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Mythul
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April 10, 2014, 08:41:01 PM |
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BTC-e seems to be going full retard !
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BitChick
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April 10, 2014, 08:49:02 PM |
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Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3! Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
When do you think it will go back up? Hopefully it is just a "one hour sale" or a "24 Hour sale" at most!  |
1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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BitchicksHusband
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April 10, 2014, 08:50:40 PM |
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Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!? I love a good sale!  Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more! If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good Which one does the history fit better? Because we're certainly not anywhere close to it right now. It's hard to believe we're this much below what should be $2000. |
1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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kdrop22
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April 10, 2014, 08:52:25 PM |
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R^2 = 0.946 (amazing, even better than price-based trendline R^2 = 0.93)
y = 0.1152x + 3.0251 (x monthly), indicating that the monthly trendline average for April = 2000.
Can someone crunch the numbers and verify the above trendline data? x=64 months y= 10.4 Taking the exponent of 10. That gives me a 10 Billion market cap. Which leads to a trend line price of around 793$. Perhaps the formula uses natural log instead or something else I am missing? |
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rpietila (OP)
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April 10, 2014, 09:09:41 PM |
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Can someone crunch the numbers and verify the above trendline data?
x=64 months
y= 10.4
Taking the exponent of 10. That gives me a 10 Billion market cap.
10^10.4 = 25B. |
HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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rpietila (OP)
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April 10, 2014, 09:11:27 PM |
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Which one does the history fit better? Because we're certainly not anywhere close to it right now. It's hard to believe we're this much below what should be $2000.
Marketcap has higher R^2 = 94.6 so it is better. |
HIM TVA Dragon, AOK-GM, Emperor of the Earth, Creator of the World, King of Crypto Kingdom, Lord of Malla, AOD-GEN, SA-GEN5, Ministry of Plenty (Join NOW!), Professor of Economics and Theology, Ph.D, AM, Chairman, Treasurer, Founder, CEO, 3*MG-2, 82*OHK, NKP, WTF, FFF, etc(x3)
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rudius
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April 10, 2014, 09:18:08 PM |
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Which one does the history fit better? Because we're certainly not anywhere close to it right now. It's hard to believe we're this much below what should be $2000.
Marketcap has higher R^2 = 94.6 so it is better. Marketcap doesn t seem right to me. People don t care of the inflation of the marketcap, so the price doesnt reflect it. Maybe something like volume*price could be more accurate? |
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doctor877
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April 10, 2014, 10:12:30 PM |
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What I find hilarious of this current crash, is that it isn't the chinese selling. : |
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foody
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April 10, 2014, 11:15:10 PM |
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What I find hilarious of this current crash, is that it isn't the chinese selling. : How do you know that? |
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ampere9765
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April 10, 2014, 11:16:44 PM |
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What I find hilarious of this current crash, is that it isn't the chinese selling. : How do you know that? It was bedtime Now it's morning and Huobi is busy catching up |
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kireinaha
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April 10, 2014, 11:33:42 PM |
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$366 on bitstamp. Golly, these sale prices just keep getting better and better! It's a liquidation. All bitcoins must go!
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Night gathers, and now my bitcoinwisdom watch begins.
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twiifm
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April 10, 2014, 11:42:32 PM |
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Chart is breaking down. No resistance til 200 area
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User705
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First 100% Liquid Stablecoin Backed by Gold
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April 11, 2014, 12:18:35 AM |
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Attention shoppers, sale in aisle 3! Bitcoin 80% off!
Assuming we still have some time before the sigmoid inflection point approaches.
When do you think it will go back up? When you stop caring when it will go up. |
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porcupine87
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April 11, 2014, 12:20:14 AM |
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Does that mean that Bitcoins are on sale for 80% off right now!? I love a good sale! Yes, that is exactly what it means. My original trendline discount was only 60%, now this is even more! If Internet is destroyed, then you lose money. Otherwise the deal is pretty good Or the formula is just wrong. Take the Microsoft stock for example. It started low and reached an high about 15 years ago. So if we draw a line it should be in the thousands today. But it is lower. So read this as long as you can. He will delete that post as soon as he can. Because this is a glorification thread. Critique is not allowed... |
"Morality, it could be argued, represents the way that people would like the world to work - whereas economics represents how it actually does work." Freakonomics
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aminorex
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Sine secretum non libertas
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April 11, 2014, 01:01:11 AM
Last edit: April 11, 2014, 02:31:08 AM by aminorex |
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Or the formula is just wrong. Take the Microsoft stock for example. It started low and reached an high about 15 years ago. So if we draw a line it should be in the thousands today. But it is lower.
15 years ago microsoft released its last new OS. Since then they've been milking an increasingly aged cow. Bitcoin has penetrated less that 1/10000 of its potential market -- less, if you multiply by the number of use-cases already invented, and much less if you multiply by the number of use-cases not yet invented. Bitcoin today is better compared to microsoft in 1984 than microsoft in 1999.  1984 Microsoft was pre-IPO. It had been in operation for a little over 5 years. If you charted its pre-IPO price, you would find the volatility was comparable to the current volatility of bitcoin. |
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a Poisson distribution and he eats at random times independent of one another, at a constant known rate.
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log2exp
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April 11, 2014, 01:04:18 AM |
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Am waiting patiently at $269.90 for 10 more coins. Come on give a little push  |
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MahaRamana
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April 11, 2014, 02:20:37 AM |
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Price index is at 256 EUR but on localbitcoin you cannot find meaningful offer (I mean any decent quantity) for less than 296 EUR.
That's a cool 15%. I would have bought more coins but not at 15+% over exchange price...
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SlipperySlope
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April 11, 2014, 02:53:42 AM |
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The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
This is a very interesting idea, modelling bitcoin market capitalization rather than price. I maintain a logistic model of price that I can adapt for market cap. Did you estimate the historical data series for the number of circulating bitcoins, or is this available for download somewhere? I am currently away from home and will not return until Monday, at which point I will continue buying fractional coin from my local bitcoin ATM. |
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BitChick
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April 11, 2014, 03:02:29 AM |
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The trend is based on a model and rpietila's model has one major shortcoming. I came to this conclusion by analysing the early 2010 and 2009 data. The fact that there is something wrong here becomes clear when one looks at the graph and focuses on 2009 and early 2010. My first thought was that the data from this period was way off; however rpietila provided enough anecdotal evidence to convince me that his estimate was at least in the right ballpark. This led me to question the model instead. My conclusion is that using price for the log fit is incorrect and that market capitalization should be used instead. The impact of this is most profound in 2009. My preliminary results predict a trend-line right now of around 4000 per BTC rather than around 900 USD per BTC. It also predicted from the 2010 and later data a constant price around 0.005 USD per BTC for a significant part of 2009, vindicating rpietila's guess that I had severely questioned.
This is a very interesting idea, modelling bitcoin market capitalization rather than price. I maintain a logistic model of price that I can adapt for market cap. Did you estimate the historical data series for the number of circulating bitcoins, or is this available for download somewhere? I am currently away from home and will not return until Monday, at which point I will continue buying fractional coin from my local bitcoin ATM. Darn. So we have to wait for Monday for you to help pump the price back up?  |
1BitcHiCK1iRa6YVY6qDqC6M594RBYLNPo
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