Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +98424 units

[buwaytress]

Big, big shame Nigeria drew the game. Didn't watch any of the matches, couldn't find anything, but reports seem to suggest Nigeria were unlucky. Got the other results right with comfortable victories so I'm going to stick with the U20s in today's predictions. Not sure if we could see more upsets as people are getting tired now so I'll pick the 3 slight favourites here (sorry South Korea). Saudi and France should win comfortably too, so those are high value odds in my eyes.

Game 1: South Korea vs Argentina: Argentina WIN @2.29. Betcoin odds: 2.24
Game 2: Mali vs France: France WIN @1.91. Betcoin odds: 1.87
Game 3: Saudi Arabia vs Panama. Saudi WIN @2.28. Betcoin odds: 2.23
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @9.9677. Betcoin parlay: 9.34

Odds advantage: 6.72%
Units advantage: 62.77

Running advantage after 324 bets: +10,656.78 (+62.77 units)

Running units after 323 bets (74W|249L): +9,979.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Crikey but we should have chosen the underdogs again. Each time I think they can't pull it off they do. Tsk Tsk.

Only 1 game matter tonight and it's Liverpool and Spurs at Madrid for the second consecutive Reds Champions League finals.

Such a shame the odds are stacked against Spurs, but I suppose even as a Reds I must admit we are tipped to win this. I got other bets riding but snigles, so for this thread, we parlay the game against a women's friendly where the Dutch have been so strong, and a Uganda win against Lesotho in the Cosafa Cup QFs.

Game 1: Liverpool vs Tottenham. Pool WIN @1.91. Betcoin odds: 1.92
Game 2: Lesotho vs Uganda. Uganda WIN @2.23. Betcoin odds: 2.21
Game 2: Netherlands vs Australia. Netherlands win @2.09. Betcoin odds: 2.06
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @8.8977. Betcoin parlay: 8.74

Odds advantage: 1.8%
Units advantage: 15.77

Running advantage after 325 bets: +10,672.55 (+15.77 units)

Running units after 324 bets (74W|250L): +9,879.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Damn you Uganda! So strange that they let Lesotho go for the draw (and they eventually came out 3-2 after regular time), they will probably be the smart bet if they come up with odds better than 5/1 for the Semifinals.

Anyway, we return to some friendly action after Liverpool's 6th European Cup last night. I'm still buzzing from it obviously. I'm going to back a Malaysia win over Nepal with a huge South Africa win over Norway.

Game 1: Malaysia vs Nepal @1.42. Bitcoinrush odds: 1.41
Game 2: South Africa vs Norway. S Africa WIN @9.87. Bitcoinrush odds: 8.74
100 units parlay at Betcoin @14.0154. BCR parlay: 12.3234

Odds advantage: 13.73%
Units advantage: 169.2

Let's not forget how kind the U20s have been to us and bet on another Kiwi upset, but we'll only take 50 units on this, a new deposit won't make it in time and it's all the balance I have haha.

Game 1: Italy vs Poland. Italy WIN @1.95. BCR odds: 1.89
Game 2: Colombia vs NZ. NZ WIN @4.81. BCR odds: 4.54
50 units parlay at Betcoin @4.6897. BCR parlay: 4.2903

Odds advantage: 9.31%
Units advantage: 39.94

Total units advantage: 209.14

Running advantage after 327 bets: +10,881.69 (+209.14 units)

Running units after 325 bets (74W|251L): +9,779.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Everything went to hell last night haha. South Africa ran out of luck, as did the Kiwis. Fresh deposits so we can return to normalcy, as some of my Liverpool to WIN CL bets made in Dec last year all settled (at almost 10/1 yay).

Knockout stages for the U20s, and I'm betting with the teams I like today, which happen to also be the favourites. I think the bookies are a bit unfair in their estimations though, so this is slightly low value but I'm confident of the results so here goes:

Game 1: Uruguay vs Ecuador. Uruguay WIN @2.17. BCR odds: 2.15
Game 2: Ukraine vs Panama. Ukraine WIN @1.57. BCR odds: 1.54
Game 3: Senegal vs Nigeria . Senegal WIN @2.44. BCR odds: 2.43
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.3128. BCR parlay: 8.0457

Odds advantage: 3.32%
Units advantage: 26.71

Running advantage after 328 bets: +10,908.4 (+26.71 units)

Running units after 327 bets (74W|253L): +9,629.19 (-150 units)

[buwaytress]

Panama upset at the U20s. Incredible stuff. I almost don't feel so bad losing the parlay seeing these guys go through at the expense of giants (in the senior teams anyway!).

Big odds jump in USA to cause at upset against France. I don't rate them so highly but they've done pretty well in the tourney, maybe they are a rising force? Let's parlay against the brilliant Argentina!

Game 1: France vs USA. USA WIN @8.47. Betcoin odds: 7.47
Game 2: Argentina vs Mali. Argentina win @1.51. Betcoin odds: 1.53
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @12.7695. Betcoin parlay: 11.43

Odds advantage: 12.11%
Units advantage: 133.95

Running advantage after 329 bets: +11,042.35 (+133.95 units)

Running units after 328 bets (74W|254L): +9,529.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Really, Argentina? Don't know whether I should congratulate Mali for this brilliant upset or decry that they killed the game for a draw, took their chances with penalties and won. Greece famously did that to win the Euro before, so why not Mali yeah?

Shame, though, because we had an even more brilliant performance from USA to dump out France.

Qatar face Brazil in a tune-up friendly before Copa America and I can't resist the odds for Qatar @22.77. Couldn't find any bookie offering this other than Betcoin so we have a one-off today:

100 units single at Betcoin @22.77.

Odds advantage: N/A
Units advantage: N/A

Running advantage after 330 bets: +11,042.35 (+0 units)

Running units after 329 bets (74W|255L): +9,429.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Ouch Qatar haha.

I love the 3 lions but the Dutch have been so strong in recent times. I would like to say they can thank Liverpool for really bringing VVD and Ginny up so much that their physicalities have been such a strong part of the Dutch international game as well. They never would have been able to deploy van Dijk as a striker if he didn't beef up at Liverpool I think!

Still, England know how to win games so I'm glad the bookies agree so we got nice odds. I'll parlay with a U21 game for another of my favs Kazakhstan to beat Faroe Islands!

Game 1: England vs Netherlands. Netherlands WIN @3.06. Betcoin odds: 3.01
Game 2: Kazakhstan vs Faroe Islands. Kazakhstan WIN @2.77. Betcoin odds: 2.63
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @8.4762. Betcoin parlay: 7.92

Odds advantage: 7.01%
Units advantage: 55.62

Running advantage after 331 bets: +11,097.97 (+55.62 units)

Running units after 320 bets (74W|256L): +9,329.19 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

So many close calls. The Dutch were definitely good for the win, but watching the young úns play, can't help thinking they're better than before but far from back to the normal total football we got used to decades ago.

Lost me my bet at any rate, as regular time was a draw.

EDIT 8 June 2019: Apparently, I made a mistake, my bet was on full time results including EXTRA time, so my bet above won!
So the stats below is edited to reflect the win =)

Women's world cup starts today but it's just the one game so I'll toy with the idea of a South Korean upset. Meanwhile, a friendly betwixt Kenya and Madagascar's a bit too good to miss, parlayed with a Euro qualifier on Montenegro to beat Kosovo.

Game 1: Kenya vs Madagascar. Kenya WIN @2.63. BCR odds: 2.65
Game 2: Montenegro vs Kosovo. Montenegro WIN @2.40. BCR odds: 2.35
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.312. BCR parlay: 6.228

Odds advantage: 1.39%
Units advantage: 8.4

Running advantage after 332 bets: +11,106.37 (+8.4 units)

Running units after 331 bets (75W|256L): +10,076.81 (+747.62 units)

[buwaytress]

Nice that we won the bet 2 days ago (I edited yesterday's post to reflect) so we're back above 10k profit, but last night's bet lost -- Kenya won their game narrowly but Montenegro just couldn't beat Kosovo... should have went for Ukraine, same odds but they won big.

I'm feeling good about Italy in Euro tonight, but feeling even better for a Vietnam upset in the Thai King Cup against Curacao. Vietnam played so well in AFC that they should at least give a fight!

Game 1: Greece vs Italy. Italy WIN @1.94. BCR odds: 1.95
Game 2: Curacao vs Vietnam: Vietnam WIN @4.21. BCR odds: 4.08
100 units parlay at Betcoin @8.1674. BCR parlay: 7.966

Odds advantage: 2.54%
Units advantage: 20.12

Running advantage after 333 bets: +11,126.49 (+20.12 units)

Running units after 332 bets (75W|257L): +9,976.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Curacao fought the draw, and went through on penalties. Vietnam should have won still, I think. I'm also a bit peeved I didn't foresee the Turkey upset in Euro qualifiers, but never the matter.

Jamaica Women's have an incredible first-time ever appearance in Women's WC and I missed a great 20/1 bet. Took too long and it has dropped to 16/1 so I will see if I can't bump it up with a parlay later.

But for now, I'm backing both underdogs in the Nations League finals and 3rd place game:

Game 1: Portugal vs Netherlands. Netherlands WIN @3.40. BCR odds: 3.36
Game 2: Switzerland vs England. Swiss WIN @3.54. BCR odds: 3.49
100 units parlay at Betcoin @12.036. BCR parlay: 11.7264

Odds advantage: 2.64%
Units advantage: 30.96

Running advantage after 334 bets: +11,157.45 (+30.96 units)

Running units after 333 bets (75W|258L): +9,876.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Wow what an underwhelming set of games yesterday. Credit to Portugal, they showed enough intent and ambition to deserve it. The Oranjes look so much like Ajax at times. Some stirring of verve but without the daring to accomplish.

Tough call in EURO but I'll go a bit safe today and pick Bulgaria to beat Kosovo (who were lucky in their previous draw). I think Austria should also just edge out N Macedonia.

Game 1: Bulgaria vs Kosovo. Bulgaria WIN @2.51. Betcoin odds: 2.51
Game 2: Austria vs North Macedonia. Austria WIN @2.28. Betcoin odds: 2.23
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @5.7228. Betcoin parlay: 5.60

Odds advantage: 2.19%
Units advantage: 12.28

Running advantage after 335 bets: +11,169.73 (+12.28 units)

Running units after 334 bets (75W|259L): +9,776.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

What happens when we go safe? We lose anyway. What's the lesson? I suck at predicting Euro. It's been a tough series of games so far for the underdogs, with the big guns stamping their authority early on. Does it mean we're in for more shocks? Maybe.

But I'll pull away for an exotic mix of games today, starting with a Cambodia upset over Pakistan, and then we'll parlay it up nicely with a South Korea win over Iran + Turkey youth to overcome Kosovo youth. Tough mix but I like my odds.

Game 1: Cambodia vs Pakistan. Cambodia WIN @5.37. Betcoin odds: 5.09
Game 2: South Korea vs Iran. South Korea WIN @2.34. Betcoin odds: 2.32
Game 3: Turkey U21 vs Kosovo U21. Turkey WIN @2.08. Betcoin odds: 2.03
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @26.1369. Betcoin parlay: 23.97

Odds advantage: 9.04%
Units advantage: 216.69

Edit - ok so the parlay above was ruined by South Korea failing to beat Iran in a 1-1 draw, but I'm still so confident on Cambodia and Turkey -- meanwhile, the Betcoin bookies have raised the odds, so I'm taking another bet on the 2 remaining legs, same as above but on different odds:
Cambodia (5.43 vs BCR 5.39) and Turkey U21 (2.17 vs BCR 2.11) to win: Betcoin parlay @11.7831 vs BCR parlay 11.3729
Odds advantage: 3.61%
Units advantage: 41.02

Running advantage after 337 bets: +11,427.44 (+257.71 units)

Running units after 335 bets (75W|260L): +9,676.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Incredible. I doubled down on a bet, Cambodia actually did win the game in the last 5 minutes after the Pakistan lead... but then our Turkish U21s contrived to get our midfield sent off... and then conceding the goal from the foul in the same last minute of 1st half injury time. Actually equalised after the break with 10 men but then Kosovo's number's were too much.

Shame.

Spain have played quite well in Women's World Cup. Germans are the favourites but I wonder if their battering ram will work today so Spanish girls parlayed with a return to the La Liga for an old favourite of mine, Deportivo La Coruna. They must win their playoff semi against Malaga today for a chance, so let's hope!

Game 1: Germany vs Spain (W). Spain WIN @3.63. Betcoin: 3.58
Game 2: Deportivo la Coruna vs Malaga. Deportivo WIN @2.09. Betcoin: 2.09
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @7.5867. Betcoin parlay: 7.4822

Odds advantage: 1.40%
Units advantage: 10.45

Running advantage after 338 bets: +11,437.89 (+10.45 units)

Running units after 337 bets (75W|262L): +9,476.81 (-200 units)

[buwaytress]

Well, no surprises in Women's World Cup, except that the scorelines weren't bigger. Crazy mistake in the French game, never saw an own goal like that at international stage, but heh.

So, because there has been not a single upset (I almost got it on 1 match when Japan were held to a scoreless draw!) I will bet on one happening today. Go South Africa! They should at least have physical advantage, not that I've seen very good headers from women's games.

100 units on South Africa to WIN vs China @10.41. BCR odds: 9.39

Odds advantage: 10.86%
Units advantage: 102

Running advantage after 339 bets: +11,539.89 (+102 units)

Running units after 338 bets (75W|263L): +9,376.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Yikes, scary team from China. Physical disadvantage totally wiped out by the way they just ran and attacked S Africa. I felt so afraid for them, to their credit only lost 1-0. But still, damn, women's football. Now let's see if the Serbian women are better than the men's in their round:

Game 1: Serbia vs Switzerland. Serbia WIN @4.91. Betcoin odds: 4.69
Game 2: Japan vs Scotland. Japan WIN @1.65. Betcoin odds: 1.66
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @8.0983. Betcoin parlay: 7.7854

Odds advantage: 4.02%
Units advantage: 31.29

Running advantage after 340 bets: +11,571.18 (+31.29 units)

Running units after 339 bets (75W|264L): +9,276.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Serbia, you almost did it. Held on splendidly, actually dared to show some verve, and the Swiss were running out of ideas and getting carded. Then they had to give away the goal in 89th minute. Always feel sad at these kinds of results. Still an upset, but not the one we bet on.

Copa America is here, we neglected the opener but I'm really looking forward to the matches tonight. We'll take an early slight upset with Venezuela and then parlay that with a Messi opener win, and an Indonesian win in a friendly against Vanuatu.

Game 1: Indonesia vs Vanuatu. Indo WIN @ BCR odds: 1.25
Game 2: Venezuela vs Peru. Venezuela WIN @ BCR odds: 3.24
Game 3: Argentina vs Colombia. Argentia WIN @ BCR odds: 2.17
100 units parlay at Betcoin @9.3344. BCR parlay: 8.811

Odds advantage: 5.94%
Units advantage: 52.34

Running advantage after 341 bets: +11,623.52 (+52.34 units)

Running units after 340 bets (75W|265L): +9,176.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Shocking. Messi can't bring Argentina to win. And Venezuela couldn't bring Peru to its knees. I'm ashamed I couldn't pick the upset when the statistics suggested they were very much on the cards.

I really like Qatar and they did lose soundly to the Brazilians in the friendly pre-Copa, but Almoez Ali should score today. Parlay that with an Egypt friendly win and we're on our way.

Game 1: Paraguay vs Qatar. Qatar WIN @5.26. BCR odds: 5.32
Game 2: Egypt vs Guinea. Egypt WIN @1.49. BCR odds: 1.44
100 units parlay at Betcoin @7.8374. BCR parlay: 7.643

Odds advantage: 2.74%
Units advantage: 19.44

Running advantage after 342 bets: +11,642.96 (+19.44 units)

Running units after 341 bets (75W|266L): +9,076.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Last night was upsetting for a few reasons. A penalty in 2nd minute. And then a lot of pretty poor refereeing decisions cut down so many attacks that Qatar had. They were a lot more physical and I think Paraguay were good actors. 2-2 is probably a fair result but if only for better finishing and the Qataris not getting stuck on that pitch... Anyway, another darkhorse tonight with even more odds stacked against them but I'm going with a single Japan WIN.

I think my only regret for this game is that I didn't sweep up any of the offers on Fairlay yesterday at a full 100 units more than what I got today. But still at over 8/1, it's still a fair 11% more than the closest competitor at Betcoin. I know Japan are capable too, so this will be worth watching.

100 units on Japan to WIN vs Chile @8.1977. Betcoin odds: 7.32

Odds advantage: 11.99%
Units advantage: 87.77

Running advantage after 343 bets: +11,731.73 (+88.77 units)

Running units after 342 bets (75W|267L): +8,976.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

Wow did Japan lose big. Didn't watch or read the reports, a bit pissed with the result but the stats actually show that it was an even attack and possession. Guess you just had better finishers with the Chileans. Maybe their last win wasn't exactly a one off thing either.

Women's World Cup have strangely been as predictable as the bookies have put it, other than a couple of draws. I should probably stay away from predicting upsets, but let's see if the Italians can sneak a win past Brazil, and parlay that with a CONCACAF win for Panama.

There are some other huge payouts for upsets, notably Jamaica but let's hold our horses for the time being until we get a better picture.

Game 1: Italy vs Brazil. Italy WIN @3.15. BCR odds: 3.11
Game 2: Panama vs Trinidad & Tobago. Panama WIN @1.98. BCR odds: 1.91
100 units parlay at Betcoin @6.237. BCR parlay: 5.9401

Odds advantage: 5.00%
Units advantage: 29.69

Running advantage after 344 bets: +11,761.42 (+29.69 units)

Running units after 343 bets (75W|268L): +8,876.81 (-100 units)

[buwaytress]

If it's any comfort, betting on a Brazil win would have lost the bet anyway. I don't have much time to research tonight's games, but I'm going to take the favourites in the Copa and parlay it with what I'm sure is a Women's certainty for England... at 2/1 it looks really good value to me, considering the Japan women's last game was atrocious.

I'll return later and see if Qatar's odds jump. They're unlikely to win against such tough opponents but maybe if the pitch favours them...

Game 1: Argentina vs Paraguay. Argentina WIN @1.51. Betcoin odds: 1.49
Game 2: Colombia vs Qatar. Colombia WIN @1.32. Betcoin odds: 1.30
Game 3: England vs Japan. England WIN @2.16. Betcoin odds: 2.08
100 units parlay at Bitcoinrush @4.2764. Betcoin parlay: 4.0289

Odds advantage: 6.14%
Units advantage: 24.75

Running advantage after 345 bets: +11,786.17 (+24.75 units)

Running units after 344 bets (75W|269L): +8,776.81 (-100 units)