Odds, units advantage | Sportsbook | +100,003 units

[buwaytress]

^ Yeah, as poor as a lot of the English clubs have been this season, they have done pretty memorable games every now and then, and still probably deserve more time with their managers. But it's hard to really watch PSG and feel entertained. Since Emery, they've been dropping points and wins with every new coach, it's amazing.

Can't see anything really nice to put bets on yet, so we'll revisit this in a few days. Liverpool are about 3/1 tomorrow but I'll wait for odds to get juicier... otherwise I don't think it's value heh.

Will update units calculations then.

[buwaytress]

So the odds boost has happened. Most likely because bookies will feel Chelsea will play an actually good formation without Potter in charge, but that works for me and I do think this is finally a good value bet.

Unfortunately, I can't wait for my price boost to recharge at Sportsbet.io but if you take it now you'll get 3.66.

I'll take the less attractive one available on Fairlay. 200 units?

200 units at Fairlay on Liverpool to WIN vs Chelsea @3.36. Other odds: 3.66
Units advantage: 60

Running advantage after 46 bets: +4202 (-60)
All-time cumulative: +87,282
Running units after 45 bets (8W|37L): +3028 (+682)

[buwaytress]

Man, Liverpool. They keep haunting me.

But I'm thinking we've got 2 brilliant games today, against both Manchester teams. City were awesome but Saints are a different beast and I feel like we're going to get something out of a rotation of Walcott/JWP... while United broke Brentford in the end but Everton are a sterner test I feel (Dyche is up for this).

So, 100 units each at Sportsbet:

Everton to WIN vs Man Utd @6.72. Other odds: 6.20
Southampton to WIN vs City @14.75. Other odds: 12.80
Bet ID: 642b447cedad45000165eec9

Units advantage: 52+195 = 247

Running advantage after 47 bets: +4449 (+247)
All-time cumulative: +87,529
Running units after 46 bets (8W|38L): +2828 (-200)

[KTChampions]

Man, Liverpool. They keep haunting me.

But I'm thinking we've got 2 brilliant games today, against both Manchester teams. City were awesome but Saints are a different beast and I feel like we're going to get something out of a rotation of Walcott/JWP... while United broke Brentford in the end but Everton are a sterner test I feel (Dyche is up for this).

So, 100 units each at Sportsbet:

Everton to WIN vs Man Utd @6.72. Other odds: 6.20
Southampton to WIN vs City @14.75. Other odds: 12.80
Bet ID: 642b447cedad45000165eec9

Units advantage: 52+195 = 247

Running advantage after 47 bets: +4449 (+247)
All-time cumulative: +87,529
Running units after 46 bets (8W|38L): +2828 (-200)

Liverpool destroy betters throughout the season (51% points on average lol).

I hope the saints will please both you and me today - I am glad for any defeat of the City. The Saints have already won a home game against City in January (when they knocked them out of the League Cup), why shouldn't they do it again, especially since City are most likely already in the game with Bayern in mind? I think bet on Saints is value.

[buwaytress]

Pretty cool that I avoided betting on Champions League so far (for this thread anyway, heh), as favourites have generally smacked down.

But I cannot possibly ignore Sevilla, kings of Europa, can I? Rashford out injured is a blow, and he was honestly the only thing holding that team together. Only problem is Sevilla are at the lowest they've been for a while. So.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla to WIN vs United @9.36. Other odds: 8.80
Units advantage: 56
Bet ID: 6437fd71edad45000164fc1a

Running advantage after 49 bets: +4505 (+56)
All-time cumulative: +87,585
Running units after 48 bets (8W|40L): +2628 (-200)

[KTChampions]

Pretty cool that I avoided betting on Champions League so far (for this thread anyway, heh), as favourites have generally smacked down.

But I cannot possibly ignore Sevilla, kings of Europa, can I? Rashford out injured is a blow, and he was honestly the only thing holding that team together. Only problem is Sevilla are at the lowest they've been for a while. So.

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla to WIN vs United @9.36. Other odds: 8.80
Units advantage: 56
Bet ID: 6437fd71edad45000164fc1a

Running advantage after 49 bets: +4505 (+56)
All-time cumulative: +87,585
Running units after 48 bets (8W|40L): +2628 (-200)

I don't think Rashford means anything without Casemiro (who's playing today), so it's a very dangerous bet 
In general, I have a desire to bet on United, since Sevilla annoys me a little - the bookmakers rate it quite solidly, although it crawls along the bottom in La Liga. But United have a grueling schedule, so they can really unpleasantly surprise you at any given moment.

[buwaytress]

I don't think Rashford means anything without Casemiro (who's playing today), so it's a very dangerous bet 
In general, I have a desire to bet on United, since Sevilla annoys me a little - the bookmakers rate it quite solidly, although it crawls along the bottom in La Liga. But United have a grueling schedule, so they can really unpleasantly surprise you at any given moment.

Turns out you were right, but it didn't matter because the Maguire effect is something we all forgot about, for or against United. Probably annoyed me a bit more that Sevilla could actually have won it near the end, but let's be fair and say a point was the most they deserved.

I'm of course eyeing City this weekend but can we appreciate how badly Bayern appear to be wobbling? Sane/Mane drama... sad. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, are on a hot 3-game win streak...

100 units at Sportsbet on Hoffenheim to WIN vs Bayern @13.65. Other odds: 12.60
Units advantage: 105

Running advantage after 50 bets: +4610 (+105)
All-time cumulative: +87,690
Running units after 49 bets (8W|41L): +2528 (-100)

[KTChampions]

I don't think Rashford means anything without Casemiro (who's playing today), so it's a very dangerous bet 
In general, I have a desire to bet on United, since Sevilla annoys me a little - the bookmakers rate it quite solidly, although it crawls along the bottom in La Liga. But United have a grueling schedule, so they can really unpleasantly surprise you at any given moment.

Turns out you were right, but it didn't matter because the Maguire effect is something we all forgot about, for or against United. Probably annoyed me a bit more that Sevilla could actually have won it near the end, but let's be fair and say a point was the most they deserved.

I'm of course eyeing City this weekend but can we appreciate how badly Bayern appear to be wobbling? Sane/Mane drama... sad. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, are on a hot 3-game win streak...

100 units at Sportsbet on Hoffenheim to WIN vs Bayern @13.65. Other odds: 12.60
Units advantage: 105

Running advantage after 50 bets: +4610 (+105)
All-time cumulative: +87,690
Running units after 49 bets (8W|41L): +2528 (-100)

Yes, United scored all 4 goals in the game, but in the end the score was 2-2 
Bayern are unpleasantly surprised - first it's a ridiculous dismissal of a coach in the middle of the season, then a rout from City and now they have more problems in the dressing room. It looks like degradation.
I can’t say that Sevilla or Hoffenheim today were close to victory, but it’s a pity that your bets were actually close but didn’t play. But your flair certainly works well!

[buwaytress]

^ Damn Bayern! Heh. 2 draws, it works well, we give it another go

Right, I almost, almost forgot about this game! 15 minutes to kick off but odds are still amazing. I don't think it gets better than this, and the Foxes rarely have gotten such juice but it is truly a sign of the times.

Yes, Leicester have been horrible. But yes, they have a new manager (heh) and you never discount those bounces. Also yes, they have fairly recently bested City (I won't forget so soon the opener of last season!).

100 units at Fairlay on Leicester City to WIN vs Man City @25.00. Other odds: 22.50
Units advantage: 250

Running advantage after 51 bets: +4860 (+250)
All-time cumulative: +87,940
Running units after 50 bets (8W|42L): +2428 (-100)

[buwaytress]

No, I'm not trying to spam against City, but yes, I'm trying to spam against City haha.

It's a wasted bet but you never know Bayern, right? They don't deserve 3-0, and City could be a victim of tinkering so let's give it a go with a unique market. I couldn't find this market precisely elsewhere... so no odds advantage calculation but the regular odds is 15/1, I'm using a price boost.

100 units at Sportsbet on Bayern to qualify @16.40. Other odds: -

Running advantage after 52 bets: +4860 (-)
All-time cumulative: +87,940
Running units after 51 bets (8W|43L): +2328 (-100)

[KTChampions]

No, I'm not trying to spam against City, but yes, I'm trying to spam against City haha.

It's a wasted bet but you never know Bayern, right? They don't deserve 3-0, and City could be a victim of tinkering so let's give it a go with a unique market. I couldn't find this market precisely elsewhere... so no odds advantage calculation but the regular odds is 15/1, I'm using a price boost.

100 units at Sportsbet on Bayern to qualify @16.40. Other odds: -

Running advantage after 52 bets: +4860 (-)
All-time cumulative: +87,940
Running units after 51 bets (8W|43L): +2328 (-100)

Eh... If Bayern had qualified it would have been the "finishing" of all the tasks for this season in the Champions League - even though I'm a Real Madrid fan I would be happy even with that the two bags didn't win the tournament again. But unfortunately it looks like a dream after the first match. However, until the game is over, you can always hope for the best.

[buwaytress]

^ It was more of a "value" proposition than anything else. Bayern haven't been playing at their best but I was hoping for a Tuchel masterpiece combined with a Pep tinkering. Neither happened!

Today's an easy bet for me. Yes, Saints are bottom of the league, and Arsenal right at the top, but I won't forget easily their massive win against City in the EFL cup. You just never can count out a team with pretty damned good players on their day...

100 units at Sportsbet on Saints to WIN vs Arsenal @18.60. Other odds: 16.00
Units advantage: 260
Bet ID: 643e45a91e4b050001aa366a

Running advantage after 53 bets: +5120 (+260)
All-time cumulative: +88,200
Running units after 52 bets (8W|44L): +2228 (-100)

[KTChampions]

^ It was more of a "value" proposition than anything else. Bayern haven't been playing at their best but I was hoping for a Tuchel masterpiece combined with a Pep tinkering. Neither happened!

Today's an easy bet for me. Yes, Saints are bottom of the league, and Arsenal right at the top, but I won't forget easily their massive win against City in the EFL cup. You just never can count out a team with pretty damned good players on their day...

100 units at Sportsbet on Saints to WIN vs Arsenal @18.60. Other odds: 16.00
Units advantage: 260
Bet ID: 643e45a91e4b050001aa366a

Running advantage after 53 bets: +5120 (+260)
All-time cumulative: +88,200
Running units after 52 bets (8W|44L): +2228 (-100)

Oh. Friend, I'll probably stop visiting this thread for a while (I hope you invite me later) - it's very painful to watch how you are sooooo close to victory lately, but literally just a little bit is missing. Arsenal and the upcoming championship (very likely) of City ruined my mood today.
The only thing that pleased me was Dortmund (which, unexpectedly for me, used Bayern's mistake) and the situation that is developing now in the management of the club. Kahn and Salihamidzic must take full responsibility.

[buwaytress]

Oh. Friend, I'll probably stop visiting this thread for a while (I hope you invite me later) - it's very painful to watch how you are sooooo close to victory lately, but literally just a little bit is missing. Arsenal and the upcoming championship (very likely) of City ruined my mood today.
The only thing that pleased me was Dortmund (which, unexpectedly for me, used Bayern's mistake) and the situation that is developing now in the management of the club. Kahn and Salihamidzic must take full responsibility.

No one hurt more than me (except Saints fans I guess)... but this literally is the story of this thread, very low win percentage, and long stretches of sorrow, sometimes some really crazy wins in a row but generally quite demotivating when it comes to weeks like you've just seen. Big odds, and drawing, the funny thing is how of all the losses, Saints odds were the biggest but they probably deserved the win.

Mainz was a great bet to take, but then it was only 5/1 when I checked, and so, not nearly enough for me to add it (even knowing how crap Bayern has been).

BVB better not throw away this gift.

Feel free to return at a later time when you feel like throwing money on longshots heh. And thank you, always, I know it's a fairly quiet thread but it's nice to know it brings some entertainment to some of you here =D

[buwaytress]

Ah crap, forgot to post my bets here... Hertha's still 0-0 and odds live are actually better, so I don't mind posting that, but too bad about Saints, leading the game at Newcastle already, that was a solid 10/1.

Take it for 20/1++ but here's my bet:

100 units at Sportsbet on Hertha Berlin to WIN vs Bayern @20.25. Other odds: 20.40
Bet ID: 644502571e4b050001526c3f

Running advantage after 54 bets: +5100 (-20)
All-time cumulative: +88,180
Running units after 53 bets (8W|45L): +2128 (-100)

[buwaytress]

It's that go-against City time again and it's pretty much just hoping for them to stumble just one more time for a big win. Fulham's also a good bet today but Liverpool are resurgent now. Time to bet against form?

100 units at Sportsbet on West Ham to WIN vs City @14.75 Other odds: 14.50
Units advantage: 25
Bet ID: 644fac501e4b05000179888f

Running advantage after 55 bets: +5125 (+25)
All-time cumulative: +88,205
Running units after 54 bets (8W|46L): +2028 (-100)

[buwaytress]

Hot and heavy weekend of football, not the most exciting for most people but with some things still to play for, some games are interesting, namely Leeds to stave off relegation and Osasuna to take home something for this season.

It's a simple double underdog day for me tomorrow, both at Sportsbet, you'll get magnificent boosts. 100 units each:

Leeds to WIN vs City @16.95. Other odds: 16.20. Bet ID: 64516ac21e4b050001da28e6
Osasuna to WIN vs Real @10.90. Other odds: 10.15. Bet ID: 6452beed1e4b050001a313cd
Total units advantage: 150

Running advantage after 57 bets: +5275 (+150)
All-time cumulative: +88,355
Running units after 55 bets (8W|47L): +1928 (-100)

[buwaytress]

It's Real Madrid time tonight, actually, and it just happens to be against City, so it's not that I'm counting on City to lose here, just counting on Real's magnificence on this particular stage. Benzema and Vini should be well rested, too, while Pep is going to fiddle around a bit, guaranteed.

So let's use up a bit of our profit cushion here, since it's almost season end:

300 units on Real Madrid to WIN vs City @3.50. Other odds: 3.32.
Units advantage: +54
Bet ID: 645a13961e4b0500012a09ea

Running advantage after 58 bets: +5331 (+54)
All-time cumulative: +88,409
Running units after 57 bets (8W|49L): +1728 (-200)

[buwaytress]

Ah well, it wasn't to be. But let's take it a little over the top today, shall we?

I think Sevilla and Basel on their own have a say in winning tonight's first ties in Europa and Conference, the value is them being away. But instead of singles, I'm going to pair these as a short acca. Feel free to not follow

100 units at Sportsbet on Sevilla and Basel to WIN @47.84. Other odds: 44.50
Bet ID: 645cd9971e4b0500018d9f1f
Units advantage: 334

Running advantage after 59 bets: +5665 (+334)
All-time cumulative: +88,743
Running units after 58 bets (8W|50L): +1428 (-300)

[buwaytress]

Man, what a shame. The harder tie was won against the grain, nice comeback from the Swiss, what a waste of a 9/1 win, Juventus had to score in the final minute (have to also mention it was time the ref granted beyond what was allocated).

But I'll throw the dice on Gladbach today, about to play in a few minutes. They're good against Bayern, not against BVB but you never know what Bayern's earlier win (6-0!) will do to Dortmund's desire today.

100 units at Fairlay on Gladbach to WIN vs BVB @11.43. Other odds:10.8
Units advantage: 63

Running advantage after 60 bets: +5728 (+63)
All-time cumulative: +88,806
Running units after 59 bets (8W|51L): +1328 (-100)