Buy the DIP, and HODL!

[Rabata]

Yes Lump sum would be fine for Hodl in the long run and I'm not denying it, but the mental attack from panicking because I've put money into bitcoin at one time, might make me sleep and eat uneasy if the market goes down. worse than the purchase price, therefore I prefer DCA as an alternative to buying Bitcoin besides that we have the opportunity to get DIP prices when using the DCA strategy.

Bitcoin seems to have a good relationship with the term "hold". Some people hold long-term and some hold short-term. Last couple of days when btc decreasing depression was working on Bitcoin but today that picture has changed. It is only a matter of time. As we know the more bearish of BTC, the more bullish it will be later on. There is a lot to learn from the current market trend. There is a world in crypto that if one cannot be a good holder one cannot become rich. I would agree with you that DCA is still viable as the most useful strategy for buying bitcoins.

[1714530534]

1714530534

[1714530534]

1714530534

[1714530534]

1714530534

[1714530534]

1714530534

[Sayeds56]

When the market creates an opportunity, one can use that opportunity to prepare for long-term investment. If you look at the history of Bitcoin, you can see that after every bull cycle it touches the previous ATH. But this time the situation turned very bad, the market went down more than the previous ATH. So it was a good chance, those who took this chance in preparation for long term investment are already in profit.

In deed it is a good idea to take advantage of lower prices of Bitcoin whenever market creates a buying opportunity to book significant potential profit in future, but it is also important to remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. Although Bitcoin has never dropped below its previous ATH but this time it happened which vindicates that history is not necessarily repeated every time and solely relying on technical analysis based on historical data may not be always reliable. It is crucial to also consider fundamental factors that can significantly influence the market behavior.

[Ryu_Ar1]

Yes Lump sum would be fine for Hodl in the long run and I'm not denying it, but the mental attack from panicking because I've put money into bitcoin at one time, might make me sleep and eat uneasy if the market goes down. worse than the purchase price, therefore I prefer DCA as an alternative to buying Bitcoin besides that we have the opportunity to get DIP prices when using the DCA strategy.

Bitcoin seems to have a good relationship with the term "hold". Some people hold long-term and some hold short-term. Last couple of days when btc decreasing depression was working on Bitcoin but today that picture has changed. It is only a matter of time. As we know the more bearish of BTC, the more bullish it will be later on. There is a lot to learn from the current market trend. There is a world in crypto that if one cannot be a good holder one cannot become rich. I would agree with you that DCA is still viable as the most useful strategy for buying bitcoins.

I think when you say "hold" in this case, you're obviously talking about a relatively longer period of time. So in this condition for me personally, I don't really see some decline back to be one of the things that makes depression here.
The decline means another opportunity to increase the load, there is no need to make it an excessive panic because the portopolio that is already owned will clearly be threatened when we are in a phase that we are depressed and panic because of a momentary decline.
Instead, the good thing is to make it a real opportunity because this is also included in the concept of buy the dip as it exists for this discussion.

[ScamViruS]

When the market creates an opportunity, one can use that opportunity to prepare for long-term investment. If you look at the history of Bitcoin, you can see that after every bull cycle it touches the previous ATH. But this time the situation turned very bad, the market went down more than the previous ATH. So it was a good chance, those who took this chance in preparation for long term investment are already in profit.

In deed it is a good idea to take advantage of lower prices of Bitcoin when market creates a buying opportunity to book significant potential profit in future, but it is also important to remember that past performance doesn't guarantee future performance. Although Bitcoin has never dropped below its previous ATH but this time it happened which vindicates that history is not necessarily repeated every time and solely relying on technical analysis based on historical data may not be always reliable. It is crucial to also consider fundamental factors that can significantly influence the market behavior.

The market repeats its cycle but many times painful situations are created in the market to shake out the panic sellers. And that situation is seen after the last bull market, this bear market has bankrupted many big companies.

In investing, one has to be aware of the market conditions, otherwise the expected results are not seen later. Therefore, in order to invest, it is important for an investor to look at the market conditions as well as the future potential of the market.

[HinaSiddique]

Another thing could be that a person is new to investing and they are trying to figure out what to invest in, and they can have all kinds of ideas about how to ease into an investment or to build up such investment over time, and historically, some people might invest 30-40 years, and never make it to fuck you status... but then when there is bitcoin  (and even crypto/shitcoins) there could be some expectations that they might be able to get to fuck you status more quickly.. and I am not even suggesting that getting to fuck you status might not be accelerated, even if many of us likely recognize and appreciate that there are a variety of ways that investors could screw up.. whether they are new investors or even more experienced investors who might start to employ higher levels of risk after some point that they might have had already built up their investment portfolio and maybe they become more adventurous and screw things up along the way?.. hahahahaha..  part of the attempted advantage of discussing matters in this thread might help for members to consider better (or at least different) strategies in regards to how to they might consider investing in bitcoin and/or accumulating it or maintaining their BTC stash.

I agree with you 100%, for a new comer it is like mission impossible. They need to figure out the amount to invest? what to invest in and for how long to invest for? and then they need to asses the risk as well. And once it all gets sorted than there comes all the expectations that they will make it BIG in the market.
So the wholesome idea is to plan your strategy, implement it and than brace yourself for the worst outcome. This way the expectations stay low and you avoid making hasty decisions.

[jaberwock]

We have seen that a few years ago, lots of crypto companies or others have influenced the price of bitcoin so that it plunged more than what we imagined at every moment and even reached the lowest price. regret when we listen to FUD that bitcoin will die when it crashes like last year when ftx crashed many people ran from the market because of that incident. the thing that makes me proud even though the amount of bitcoins I bought was not that much but buying in the $15k area is always medicine when there is a decline at a higher price.
I don't feel hopeless even though lately bitcoin has fallen quite extreme, even though last month's DCA I was at $24k but it doesn't make me panic because I still have the bitcoin that I bought at $15k and I plan to keep the bitcoin, and to become history the luckiest in my life.

well you can be said to be lucky if you can buy bitcoin when it falls to 15k $ but here the possibility of bitcoin falling even deeper is still happening, but if you intend to keep it for the long term as you said, you don't need to worry anymore, stay calm.

BTC did fall on that level last time but I won't say those people who availed it are lucky. They are just patient by some extra percent to be able to wait for that price and maybe they have the courage because others don't believe that the price will continue to $15k as the dumped that happen is already massive.

As of now, I don't see that deep fall you are talking about but what I can see right now is a recovery though I am still aware that we are at $23k last time and then we fell down to $20k but it wasn't deep enough IMO. Hodling for the long term is still the best policy here in crypto and solves all the issues that we are facing such as the dips and the crashes.

[ginsan]

The market repeats its cycle but many times painful situations are created in the market to shake out the panic sellers. And that situation is seen after the last bull market, this bear market has bankrupted many big companies.

In investing, one has to be aware of the market conditions, otherwise the expected results are not seen later. Therefore, in order to invest, it is important for an investor to look at the market conditions as well as the future potential of the market.

I think we need to look at the news that is circulating and relate it with a little analysis and that will bring together a point when we have to get out and when we have to get in. Panic always occurs due to unclear issues circulating on social. As the op said where to buy and hold, I think this option is not concerned with anything else maybe an analysis in our minds, because if we implement a gradual purchase or JJG call it DCA it doesn't matter whether the price is low or high because every week/month we have to do it every rounds and it depends on the period you make for each round.

Well yesterday I saw btc go up 17% that was a pretty strong spike that was able to make up for the strongest resistance point at $25k but today there was a slight decline which I would say is a normal thing that shouldn't panic.

[Sayeds56]

I agree with you 100%, for a new comer it is like mission impossible. They need to figure out the amount to invest? what to invest in and for how long to invest for? and then they need to asses the risk as well. And once it all gets sorted than there comes all the expectations that they will make it BIG in the market.
So the wholesome idea is to plan your strategy, implement it and than brace yourself for the worst outcome. This way the expectations stay low and you avoid making hasty decisions.

The best method for newcomers who are interested to invest in crypto industry, is to utilizing Dollar cost average (DCA) for gradually accumulate Bitcoin and holding onto it for long term can be the most effective approach to maximizing profit . Day to day trading in Bitcoin is generally considered very risky, as Bitcoin is very volatile and highly unpredictable asset by its nature, unless you posses good technical skills to analyze charts to take informed entry and exit decisions. Additionally, to maintain good emotional control & employ risk/money management techniques is essential for successful trading.

[woez]

I agree with you 100%, for a new comer it is like mission impossible. They need to figure out the amount to invest? what to invest in and for how long to invest for? and then they need to asses the risk as well. And once it all gets sorted than there comes all the expectations that they will make it BIG in the market.
So the wholesome idea is to plan your strategy, implement it and than brace yourself for the worst outcome. This way the expectations stay low and you avoid making hasty decisions.

The best method for newcomers who are interested to invest in crypto industry, is to utilizing Dollar cost average (DCA) for gradually accumulate Bitcoin and holding onto it for long term can be the most effective approach to maximizing profit . Day to day trading in Bitcoin is generally considered very risky, as Bitcoin is very volatile and highly unpredictable asset by its nature, unless you posses good technical skills to analyze charts to take informed entry and exit decisions. Additionally, to maintain good emotional control & employ risk/money management techniques is essential for successful trading.

Yes, There are many ways that this can be done as you mentioned it is also true there is a market correction which is definitely always an option for the savvy as the cryptocurrency market can be very volatile with significant risks.

Buy DIP, and HODL! for me is the classic term most used and suggested. Although buying dips and holding on to the asset for the long term can be a viable strategy for some investors. My view is simple, it is important to always see where the market is going and I am sure that anyone can become a winner with a record of being able to control their emotions because trading is a psychological game that stimulates one's emotions. adrenaline of trading.

[Dimitri94]

I agree with you 100%, for a new comer it is like mission impossible. They need to figure out the amount to invest? what to invest in and for how long to invest for? and then they need to asses the risk as well. And once it all gets sorted than there comes all the expectations that they will make it BIG in the market.
So the wholesome idea is to plan your strategy, implement it and than brace yourself for the worst outcome. This way the expectations stay low and you avoid making hasty decisions.

The best method for newcomers who are interested to invest in crypto industry, is to utilizing Dollar cost average (DCA) for gradually accumulate Bitcoin and holding onto it for long term can be the most effective approach to maximizing profit . Day to day trading in Bitcoin is generally considered very risky, as Bitcoin is very volatile and highly unpredictable asset by its nature, unless you posses good technical skills to analyze charts to take informed entry and exit decisions. Additionally, to maintain good emotional control & employ risk/money management techniques is essential for successful trading.

Buy DIP, and HODL! for me is the classic term most used and suggested. Although buying dips and holding on to the asset for the long term can be a viable strategy for some investors. My view is simple, it is important to always see where the market is going and I am sure that anyone can become a winner with a record of being able to control their emotions because trading is a psychological game that stimulates one's emotions. adrenaline of trading.

Buy from the dip and hold these words contains a green signal. But some never find this word dip in their investment and some also find dips in a bullish trend. Emotions play a big role. Not everyone can buy from the dip. Currently the market is $24k but it is still dip for me and that's why I try to hold slowly as much as possible and some investors may think $30k will be also dip according to it's bullishness.

[JayJuanGee]

I agree with you 100%, for a new comer it is like mission impossible. They need to figure out the amount to invest? what to invest in and for how long to invest for? and then they need to asses the risk as well. And once it all gets sorted than there comes all the expectations that they will make it BIG in the market.
So the wholesome idea is to plan your strategy, implement it and than brace yourself for the worst outcome. This way the expectations stay low and you avoid making hasty decisions.

The best method for newcomers who are interested to invest in crypto industrybitcoin, is to utilizing Dollar cost average (DCA) for gradually accumulate Bitcoin and holding onto it for long term can be the most effective approach to maximizing profit . Day to day trading in Bitcoin is generally considered very risky, as Bitcoin is very volatile and highly unpredictable asset by its nature, unless you posses good technical skills to analyze charts to take informed entry and exit decisions. Additionally, to maintain good emotional control & employ risk/money management techniques is essential for successful trading.

FTFY.. Fuck shitcoins.

[edited out]

Yes, There are many ways that this can be done as you mentioned it is also true there is a market correction which is definitely always an option for the savvy as the cryptocurrency market can be very volatile with significant risks.

Why are you talking about shitcoins?

We are talking about bitcoin here.

Are you able to use the word.. "bitcoin"

Repeat after me:

"b.... i..... .t.......................c.........o.....i.........n"

 


 

Buy DIP, and HODL! for me is the classic term most used and suggested. Although buying dips and holding on to the asset for the long term can be a viable strategy for some investors. My view is simple, it is important to always see where the market is going and I am sure that anyone can become a winner with a record of being able to control their emotions because trading is a psychological game that stimulates one's emotions. adrenaline of trading.

Whether you buy the dip, or you DCA.. or you HODL ... or you do some variation of that, if your investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer, you are likely coming across more cash during that time and you are likely witnessing a decent amount of BTC price volatility along the way.. so yeah, if you are able to figure out when and where the dips are, then you are likely going to be better off by being able to time the buying of BTC during the various dips.. yet it seems to me that figuring out the dips and getting it right is not an easy task, so any of us who are in bitcoin for a decent amount of time and are continuing to add to our position with the passage of time, we are likely going to realize that sometimes we are just throwing up our hands and just sucking it up.. and buying at whatever price because we are having difficulties figuring out whether the BTC price is going to dip more and also we might well be able to see that we are accumulating cash with the passage of time and we would rather store some of that cash in bitcoin rather than continuing to hold it in cash and waiting for a dip that may or may not come.

[bangjoe]

The market repeats its cycle but many times painful situations are created in the market to shake out the panic sellers. And that situation is seen after the last bull market, this bear market has bankrupted many big companies.

In investing, one has to be aware of the market conditions, otherwise the expected results are not seen later. Therefore, in order to invest, it is important for an investor to look at the market conditions as well as the future potential of the market.

I think we need to look at the news that is circulating and relate it with a little analysis and that will bring together a point when we have to get out and when we have to get in. Panic always occurs due to unclear issues circulating on social. As the op said where to buy and hold, I think this option is not concerned with anything else maybe an analysis in our minds, because if we implement a gradual purchase or JJG call it DCA it doesn't matter whether the price is low or high because every week/month we have to do it every rounds and it depends on the period you make for each round.
snip

In and out of the market because of panic is because people are not long term investing oriented, paying attention to the news sentiment is good enough to be an entry indication to continue the weekly or monthly DCA, but if you have plenty of time to pay attention to it.
I really understand how panic comes when there is a decline and that is a natural thing for investors especially those who put their money in at once, now to overcome that is true, DCA is the best way to get rid of panic, because when an extreme decline occurs you can buy bitcoin at that time because the rest of your money to invest is still there, the orientation of the long-term mindset is also like that, don't care about the previous price and experience a decline because we can buy again when the decline occurs, and the sure thing is to hold bitcoin in the long term bitcoin price the previous high you bought will definitely be picked up again in the bullrun later, so the current panic due to FUD and decline is nothing in the future, because I believe that bitcoin will repeat the same cycle and the lowest price and highest price are always increases in each cycle.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin is surging, and it has gone over $26,000. But I'm not yet that convinced that we're starting a new bull cycle. Is it time to buy EVERY DIP? Yes. Has Bitcoin reached the bottom during November? Most probably. But because of the Macro-Economic situation around the world with inflation also surging, I believe the Central Banks might start being more aggressive to control it = more tightening. Because if the Central Banks cannot control it, inflation itself will cause a recession, and that will definitely not be good for everyone.

[bangjoe]

Bitcoin is surging, and it has gone over $26,000. But I'm not yet that convinced that we're starting a new bull cycle. Is it time to buy EVERY DIP? Yes. Has Bitcoin reached the bottom during November? Most probably. But because of the Macro-Economic situation around the world with inflation also surging, I believe the Central Banks might start being more aggressive to control it = more tightening. Because if the Central Banks cannot control it, inflation itself will cause a recession, and that will definitely not be good for everyone.

The bankruptcy of the SVB bank because the Fed was too harsh in raising its interest rates so that it was not only the bitcoin market that was affected but caused a threat to banks that do have a little liquidity and I think that will be a consideration not to apply aggressiveness to interest rates.
Buying every dip at the current state is a pretty good thing in my opinion, because we are not yet in the bullrun phase, because if the bullrun phase has started I think it will be very difficult to find a decline like a few days ago which caused bitcoin to turn to $ 19k, and I think it's very difficult to wait for it to happen again, most likely we will make a new dip at the current resistance price.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoin is surging, and it has gone over $26,000. But I'm not yet that convinced that we're starting a new bull cycle. Is it time to buy EVERY DIP? Yes. Has Bitcoin reached the bottom during November? Most probably. But because of the Macro-Economic situation around the world with inflation also surging, I believe the Central Banks might start being more aggressive to control it = more tightening. Because if the Central Banks cannot control it, inflation itself will cause a recession, and that will definitely not be good for everyone.

You are a bit ambiguous both in terms of your prognostication regarding what might happen and also lack of specificity regarding what constitutes a "dip" worth buying.

#justsaying for a friend.

Bitcoin is surging, and it has gone over $26,000. But I'm not yet that convinced that we're starting a new bull cycle. Is it time to buy EVERY DIP? Yes. Has Bitcoin reached the bottom during November? Most probably. But because of the Macro-Economic situation around the world with inflation also surging, I believe the Central Banks might start being more aggressive to control it = more tightening. Because if the Central Banks cannot control it, inflation itself will cause a recession, and that will definitely not be good for everyone.

The bankruptcy of the SVB bank because the Fed was too harsh in raising its interest rates so that it was not only the bitcoin market that was affected but caused a threat to banks that do have a little liquidity and I think that will be a consideration not to apply aggressiveness to interest rates.
Buying every dip at the current state is a pretty good thing in my opinion, because we are not yet in the bullrun phase, because if the bullrun phase has started I think it will be very difficult to find a decline like a few days ago which caused bitcoin to turn to $ 19k, and I think it's very difficult to wait for it to happen again, most likely we will make a new dip at the current resistance price.

You are also failing/refusing to specify what you consider to be dip that would be sufficient for buying.. even though you seem to be giving some specificity when you suggest that going down to $19k is less likely than it had been.. but yeah, sure.. I am never really assured that current momentum is anything beyond temporary.. and it is really difficult to assess whether momentum has gained enough traction to give much if any confidence for UP rather than down.. in the short term, even if there does seem to be some momentum of UP.. that may well be short-lived.

By the way, I had been thinking that some of the most recent actions of various US Govt agencies (cannot always tell who is causing the outcomes) seems to have had dried up some liquidity channels that had been available 24/7, so I am not sure if that is going to cause greater difficulties to move fiat during off-hour times (such as weekends), which could cause DOWNity price pressures on the weekends if some of the players cannot move fiat around as easily... yet it could just cause more fleeing to USDT or maybe some other coins that seem to be less subjected (at least for now) towards US Banking authorities attempts at cracking down on USD-related channels... so yeah, for BTC prices to pump at any time, there is either a need for dollars to be held on exchanges or various third party channels.. or there is a need for the dollars to be able to be moved fairly rapidly (even during non-banking hours) from banks to various BTC exchanges... it will be interesting to see how the liquidity of the various channels might be affected by aspects of what seems to be "operation choke point"... even though I give few if any shits about shitcoins that might end up being used for these kinds of movement of value purposes... and will those dry up too? or get choked somewhat?

[Sayeds56]

Whether you buy the dip, or you DCA.. or you HODL ... or you do some variation of that, if your investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer, you are likely coming across more cash during that time and you are likely witnessing a decent amount of BTC price volatility along the way.. so yeah, if you are able to figure out when and where the dips are, then you are likely going to be better off by being able to time the buying of BTC during the various dips.. yet it seems to me that figuring out the dips and getting it right is not an easy task, so any of us who are in bitcoin for a decent amount of time and are continuing to add to our position with the passage of time, we are likely going to realize that sometimes we are just throwing up our hands and just sucking it up.. and buying at whatever price because we are having difficulties figuring out whether the BTC price is going to dip more and also we might well be able to see that we are accumulating cash with the passage of time and we would rather store some of that cash in bitcoin rather than continuing to hold it in cash and waiting for a dip that may or may not come.

Your insights about difficulties of timing the market and accurately predicting the dips in Bitcoin price are accurate. It is true that investing in Bitcoin is a long term game to make your investment profitable. It is also important to have a well thought out plan that aligns with your investment goals and risk tolerance. Dollar cost average (DCA) is a popular strategy to mitigate the impact of market volatility but we should keep in mind  that no investment strategy is entirely fool proof and there are always risk involved with investment.

[Wind_FURY]

Bitcoin is surging, and it has gone over $26,000. But I'm not yet that convinced that we're starting a new bull cycle. Is it time to buy EVERY DIP? Yes. Has Bitcoin reached the bottom during November? Most probably. But because of the Macro-Economic situation around the world with inflation also surging, I believe the Central Banks might start being more aggressive to control it = more tightening. Because if the Central Banks cannot control it, inflation itself will cause a recession, and that will definitely not be good for everyone.

You are a bit ambiguous both in terms of your prognostication regarding what might happen and also lack of specificity regarding what constitutes a "dip" worth buying.

#justsaying for a friend.

I can't be more specific because a mere pleb like me can't predict precisely where Bitcoin will go. I'm simply making a shower thought/musing that because inflation remains to be sticky, the Federal Reserve might be more aggressive in tightening/QT to reduce demand to bring inflation down. I believe THAT will bring forth a recession. The "soft landing" the Federal Reserve wants is improbable.

If the Federal Reserve pauses QT and rate hikes, or do the worse, PIVOT and actually reduce rates/start QE, inflation will go up and also bring forth a recession. It might be worse, a depression.

Where does that put Bitcoin? It might crash it back near $16,000 again. Another Golden Opportunity. During 2019, a surge happened too, from $3,000 to $14,000, then it went down near $3,000. Although, I'm wrong most of the time.

[JayJuanGee]

Whether you buy the dip, or you DCA.. or you HODL ... or you do some variation of that, if your investment timeline is 4-10 years or longer, you are likely coming across more cash during that time and you are likely witnessing a decent amount of BTC price volatility along the way.. so yeah, if you are able to figure out when and where the dips are, then you are likely going to be better off by being able to time the buying of BTC during the various dips.. yet it seems to me that figuring out the dips and getting it right is not an easy task, so any of us who are in bitcoin for a decent amount of time and are continuing to add to our position with the passage of time, we are likely going to realize that sometimes we are just throwing up our hands and just sucking it up.. and buying at whatever price because we are having difficulties figuring out whether the BTC price is going to dip more and also we might well be able to see that we are accumulating cash with the passage of time and we would rather store some of that cash in bitcoin rather than continuing to hold it in cash and waiting for a dip that may or may not come.

Your insights about difficulties of timing the market and accurately predicting the dips in Bitcoin price are accurate. It is true that investing in Bitcoin is a long term game to make your investment profitable. It is also important to have a well thought out plan that aligns with your investment goals and risk tolerance. Dollar cost average (DCA) is a popular strategy to mitigate the impact of market volatility but we should keep in mind  that no investment strategy is entirely fool proof and there are always risk involved with investment.

I am not really sure if your response is saying much of anything.^**

(**ps.. I am not proclaiming to be saying much of anything either.. even though I felt somewhat compelled to attempt a response.... so there is that angle, too)..

We can choose to invest or not to invest into anything...  and those are investments of time, energy, psychology and financial value... invest or consume... or maybe there are more ways to frame our choices?

We can also choose how much to allocate to any investment, including choosing not to invest anything or to do nothing, which may well still add up to something similar to not investing anything.

Sometimes when we are young, we are not sure what we do not know, and so we are learning along the way, and surely some people start out with bad information, bad circumstances and bad options (or at least not very many options), and sometimes they can make choices to increase the odds that they will do better in life or that they might end up doing worse in life than what they could have had done.

Some folks have to work harder than others, and sometimes the hard work does not end up paying off, and maybe it could be more guaranteed that a person will not advance if they do not make any preparations to invest in themselves in various kinds of ways - and sometimes any of us could be presented with opportunties at certain ages, but those opportunities might not be available at later points in our lives, so if we do not choose at a certain point when we are in our 20s, we might not be able to make similar choices in our 30s, 40s or 50s because those opportunities to invest versus consume are no longer available.

In regards, to the bitcoin price it is possible that this week is the last time ever that prices will be below $30k, so there could be an opportunity to invest..

But the fact of the matter remains that we do not know, and we could be kicking ourselves if we took out a loan for all of our income for the next 5 years and we invested it into bitcoin at $27.5k, but then for the next 5 years, bitcoin prices end up getting stuck between $5k and $15k until the year 2028.... so then our investment ended up NOT paying off in a positive way, and we would have had been better off to just invest with money coming in rather than to front load our investment into bitcoin.

There are other ways that the future ends up playing out that our investment pays off stupendously, and our leveraging (including our having had taken out a loan - almost in a gambling capacity) had paid off way more than a more strict approach that relied only upon our income as it comes in.

Some folks are more inclined to gamble with the various ways that they invest, and surely some of us (including yours truly) would proclaim that they are not investing because they are inadequately accounting for the various outcome directions, so even if they might be successful for a while, if they continue with that kind of practice, the odds become higher that they are going to end up either losing big time or to at least have had done worse than if they had taken a more prudent approach.. .. there are ways to be aggressive and prudent at the same time, and frequently the line is not clear... the line between investing and consumption might not be clear and the line between investing and gambling might not be clear either... yet each of us has to make our choices based on the information and resources that we have available, even if we might not actually understand the information or the resources that we have available or how that we can use our information/resources and even if there might be people in the world with better information/resources than us.. and sometimes the one with inferior information/resources will later surpass the person who had superior information/resources based on choices that had been made earlier in life.  Of course, there are no guarantees that doing the right (or better) thing will end up paying off.

Bitcoin is surging, and it has gone over $26,000. But I'm not yet that convinced that we're starting a new bull cycle. Is it time to buy EVERY DIP? Yes. Has Bitcoin reached the bottom during November? Most probably. But because of the Macro-Economic situation around the world with inflation also surging, I believe the Central Banks might start being more aggressive to control it = more tightening. Because if the Central Banks cannot control it, inflation itself will cause a recession, and that will definitely not be good for everyone.

You are a bit ambiguous both in terms of your prognostication regarding what might happen and also lack of specificity regarding what constitutes a "dip" worth buying.
#justsaying for a friend.

I can't be more specific because a mere pleb like me can't predict precisely where Bitcoin will go.

Of course, no one can predict, and some folks have better information views than others, and some people figure out better ways to "play" their options/outlooks than others.

I'm simply making a shower thought/musing that because inflation remains to be sticky, the Federal Reserve might be more aggressive in tightening/QT to reduce demand to bring inflation down. I believe THAT will bring forth a recession. The "soft landing" the Federal Reserve wants is improbable.

If the Federal Reserve pauses QT and rate hikes, or do the worse, PIVOT and actually reduce rates/start QE, inflation will go up and also bring forth a recession. It might be worse, a depression.

Yes.  There are ways to play your bitcoin options that give a lot of weight to that or alternatively there are ways to play your bitcoin option in ways that attempt to account for more important (and other) variables... in order that you are largely prepared for no matter what ends up happening....

For years there have been people who have been basing their investment choices into bitcoin based on what they believe that the fed will do and/or other macro factors, and they have been touting out nonsense regarding how bitcoin prices are correlated to equities, fed rates and various other macro factors like that, and sure there may well be some short term correlation, but a lot of people have gotten fucked because they fail/refuse to appreciate the reality that bitcoin is way less correlated than what the various pundits are proscribing it to be.

Where does that put Bitcoin? It might crash it back near $16,000 again. Another Golden Opportunity.

Yes.. of course, anything could happen, including that the bottom of $15,479 might not be in... but also it is also possible that the bottom is in, and we will never see prices below $27k ever again.

I would suggest that it would be better to be prepared for a variety of scenarios, while at the same time appreciating that some scenarios are more likely than others, and frequently, it is not too your interest to put too much preparation into scenarios that are less likely to happen or to prepare for something that is going to cost you a lot to prepare for and it might not end up happening...

so yeah..

choices must be made regarding how much dry powder to deploy, under what circumstances and whether whatever you have been doing is already good enough or whether there is some need to tweak what you were doing to bring you into better alignment....

Not too many folks are going to know whether you are sufficiently/adequately aligned or not better than yourself, but sometimes even the self makes mistakes.. so shit does end up happening, including that we have had more than 9 months of opportunity to accumulate more bitcoin through a buying on the dip approach, so it may well be overly expecting matters in which more dip opportunities are coming... They might come, and they might not come, and hopefully, you are already sufficiently and adequately prepared for UP, just in case more dip does not end up happening.

During 2019, a surge happened too, from $3,000 to $14,000, then it went down near $3,000. Although, I'm wrong most of the time.

Yes.. I surely do remember that, and yes something like that could end up happening, or it might not.  We are not currently in 2019 - even if there could be some similar dynamics going on, yet there could be some dynamics going on that end up looking way more clear down the road after the whole matter plays out, and maybe instead of correcting back down after a 3.5x price appreciation, no correction ends up happening.

I am not going to proclaim to either know what is going to happen, but I am not going to deviate from practices that I have already established over the more than 9 years that I have been in bitcoin in that I am largely prepared for either direction and even extremes, and in my own experience, the longer that any of us has been in bitcoin, the more that we should be able to figure out how much resources we are going to put into (or hold aside) in order to prepare for extremes in either direction that might happen (or might not end up happening).

[Sayeds56]

For years there have been people who have been basing their investment choices into bitcoin based on what they believe that the fed will do and/or other macro factors, and they have been touting out nonsense regarding how bitcoin prices are correlated to equities, fed rates and various other macro factors like that, and sure there may well be some short term correlation, but a lot of people have gotten fucked because they fail/refuse to appreciate the reality that bitcoin is way less correlated than what the various pundits are proscribing it to be.

It is accurate to say  that there may be short-term correlation between Bitcoin and other macro factors, such as equities or interest rates, but the strength of this correlation  can vary widely and may not be consistent over the long term. In fact, Bitcoin correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds is relatively low, which makes it a potentially valuable diversification tool for investors.

[JayJuanGee]

For years there have been people who have been basing their investment choices into bitcoin based on what they believe that the fed will do and/or other macro factors, and they have been touting out nonsense regarding how bitcoin prices are correlated to equities, fed rates and various other macro factors like that, and sure there may well be some short term correlation, but a lot of people have gotten fucked because they fail/refuse to appreciate the reality that bitcoin is way less correlated than what the various pundits are proscribing it to be.

It is accurate to say  that there may be short-term correlation between Bitcoin and other macro factors, such as equities or interest rates, but the strength of this correlation  can vary widely and may not be consistent over the long term. In fact, Bitcoin correlation with traditional assets like stocks and bonds is relatively low, which makes it a potentially valuable diversification tool for investors.

Part of the problem that I have been finding for several years, is that there are a lot of folks who seem to want to tout these ideas of correlation, which yeah they are likely quite true in the short-term, but the misleading aspect is that it ONLY takes a short-period of non-correlation for those who had been relying on the correlation assertion to get fucked by their own reliance - so I personally believe it is way better to start from a premise that they are not correlated.. rather than starting from a premise that they are.. and in that regard, I hardly give a ratt's ass if BTC prices and equities (stock markets) are correlated 95% of the time, and then 5% of the time, BTC ends up doing a 10x jump in comparison to stocks/equities, and then thereafter BTC ends up going back to being correlated for the next 3-4 years until it is not correlated again for another 10x jump.. . You can look back at the BTC charts and you can see those kinds of patterns of mostly correlation except for those short-periods in which the BTC price jumps up 10x, 100x or whatever, and then comes back down.

. so the fact of the matter would be that anyone who had been largely relying on correlation gets fucked during each of those periods of non-correlation because they might 1) fail to invest enough into bitcoin, or 2) they might sell too much too early.. part of the reason that bitcoin is really early in its adoption levels, and you get all kinds of folks thinking that they are smart when they sell on the way up but then the BTC price does another 5x to 10x after they sold.

Failing to buy sometimes gets folks not being sufficiently aggressive in their investment into BTC, getting scared to buy when it dips or even waiting for further dips.  Yeah, even newbies and whimpy investors may well end up profiting quite stupendously from being invested into BTC if they do not make major mistakes, and surely I consider the non-investment and under investment into bitcoin to be more dangerous than the over-investment, even though in this last cycle, we did get to witness plenty of examples of the mistakes on the other end in terms of over-investing into bitcoin in such a way that either leveraging was taking place or there was a certain expectation that BTC prices would not drop below certain price points (and the 200-week moving average was one of those price points that a lot of over-leveraged folks had used as their expectation of absolute BTC price bottom.. and we even witnessed examples of normies and newbies becoming vulnerable because they ended up relying on the good will of other folks over their bitcoin and they were either wanting to get yield from their bitcoin or they had not necessarily realized that they third parties were playing like degenerate gamblers with such yield products (but using their coins to engage in such gambling that was expecting the BTC price to NOT go below certain price points, such as the 200-week moving average. 

For sure, it is not completely clear how to protect oneself from those kinds of contagions in the space, and even if we might suggest that those are examples in which BTC's correlation/non-correlation to the stock market is muddied, ultimately, I still am going to assert that it is likely quite misleading to expect that BTC prices are correlated to equities and stocks.. even if there are a lot of otherwise smart people making those kinds of claims.  Good luck with those kinds of seemingly (and likely) inferior reliances.. since another thing those kinds of inferior reliances also tend to demonstrate (at least for me) that there is some level of failing/refusing to understanding the actual power (of non-correlation) that comes from a new innovative/disruptive/face-melting/paradigm-changing (peaceful wealth transferring) asset class, such as bitcoin.. even if there are a lot of times that "my lil precious" doesn't appear to be anything "special".. and those who buy into bitcoin seem to be delusional and pie-in-the-sky wishful thinkers.. which sure some of them are..... but should not take away from the foundational strengths that actually exist within what bitcoin actually is.