🥊 The UFC Info and Prediction Thread

[Pumared]

4 days till UFC and we have a silence here I guess you guys are chilling on the beach with cocktails, while I am working

On UFC 303, 4 fights from main card looks worth not missing. First of all we have a title fight. Pereira vs Prochazka rematch is the fight you should not miss. Last time they met, some said it was an early stoppage. It wasnt a dominance by champ. Jiri has all chance to return his belt. Co-main event - Lopes, a new hyped guy by UFC. Smith - huge mma veteran. Ian Garry with 14-0 against a taunting kickboxer from kickboxer family

Odds for the main card:

Alex Pereira x1.73 vs. Jiří Procházka x2.12      
Brian Ortega x2.33 vs. Diego Lopes x1.66
Anthony Smith x2.20 vs. Roman Dolidze x1.67
Mayra Bueno Silva x1.86 vs. Macy Chiasson x1.94
Ian Machado Garry x1.73 vs. Michael Page x2.12

The main event looks promising but I don't expect Jiri to win the belt back. His striking style of keeping his hands down all the time is all Pereira could ask for. But this is MMA, so anything is possible.
I find Garry insufferable so wouldn't mind seeing him getting KO'd. Page is probably technically better, but we already know oddsmakers tend to favour younger fighters.

The only ones I'm betting on are:

Alex Pereira
Diego Lopes
Ian Machado

The rest don't interest me and I don't know much about the fighters. In fact, I really believe in Diego Lopes and everything he's bringing. Since he joined the team, he's only lost once, and that loss was practically a victory because he gave it his all and has been doing so since the very beginning. I hope he can prove himself.

[TopTort777]

Alex Pereira x1.73 vs. Jiří Procházka x2.12      

The main event looks promising but I don't expect Jiri to win the belt back. His striking style of keeping his hands down all the time is all Pereira could ask for.

However Jiri took the first round in their first fight. And it was Jiri first fight after year long pause and injury. He might havent "got in the flow" in that fight. Now he has tested himself against Rakic, he might be able to get the fight into full distance. Pereira has a left bomb, but Jiri was knocked out only one during almost last 10 years, and fought against strikers often. I think Jiri has a strong chin and have chances to survive bombs. Anyway, we will see it in few days. But I really doubt that he does not know about Pereiras left hand and would go whole fight with hand low.

[pawel7777]

However Jiri took the first round in their first fight. And it was Jiri first fight after year long pause and injury. He might havent "got in the flow" in that fight. Now he has tested himself against Rakic, he might be able to get the fight into full distance. Pereira has a left bomb, but Jiri was knocked out only one during almost last 10 years, and fought against strikers often. I think Jiri has a strong chin and have chances to survive bombs. Anyway, we will see it in few days. But I really doubt that he does not know about Pereiras left hand and would go whole fight with hand low.

Jiri only got that 1st round because of scoring a takedown when he managed to stay on the top, but didn't do much damage and Pereira escaped eventually. Before that, he was getting punished with powerful leg kicks.
That was a 5 round fight, so I wouldn't be putting too much weight on the 1st round. Usually fighters would just use it to "feel" their opponents etc.
And I think Pereira lacked a bit of confidence back then. That was his 2nd fight in the Light Heavyweight, he won his debut against Blachowicz, but it was unconvincing split decision and, before that, he got KO'ed by Adesanya.

So if we are to make predictions based on the first fight, Prochazka's best bet is to try to take it to the ground, but that's just not his style. And outstriking Alex will be hell of a task, but not impossible.

[cabron]

However Jiri took the first round in their first fight. And it was Jiri first fight after year long pause and injury. He might havent "got in the flow" in that fight. Now he has tested himself against Rakic, he might be able to get the fight into full distance. Pereira has a left bomb, but Jiri was knocked out only one during almost last 10 years, and fought against strikers often. I think Jiri has a strong chin and have chances to survive bombs. Anyway, we will see it in few days. But I really doubt that he does not know about Pereiras left hand and would go whole fight with hand low.

Jiri only got that 1st round because of scoring a takedown when he managed to stay on the top, but didn't do much damage and Pereira escaped eventually. Before that, he was getting punished with powerful leg kicks.
That was a 5 round fight, so I wouldn't be putting too much weight on the 1st round. Usually fighters would just use it to "feel" their opponents etc.
And I think Pereira lacked a bit of confidence back then. That was his 2nd fight in the Light Heavyweight, he won his debut against Blachowicz, but it was unconvincing split decision and, before that, he got KO'ed by Adesanya.

So if we are to make predictions based on the first fight, Prochazka's best bet is to try to take it to the ground, but that's just not his style. And outstriking Alex will be hell of a task, but not impossible.

Jiri is huge, he could try TD but has to be ready to receive the blow he'd get. It's not easy to do when Alex has also trained for it, it's his weakness he has to make himself not vulnerable to TDs.

https://www.instagram.com/p/C8sxuXKvaia/


The two have become enemies even in the spirit world actually lol I wonder who they will consult after the fight. This is a battle of whose spirit has more magic tricks. Alex isn't denying it too so both are crazy which I think we could expect the worse in the cage.

[Pumared]

I found it very funny when Jiri said that Pereira uses black magic and that if he were a man he wouldn't use it in fights. This is a great justification to show his own failure and how out of touch with reality he is.

[TopTort777]

What do you think about Lopez vs Ortega fight? A new UFC star, Lopez, seems to be experienced in everything. Only 2 decision among 24 wins. Never got submitted. When Ortega is familiar for submission and ground games. It seems to be that this weekend Lopez is going to take Ortegas third place in rating, and in one fight is going to have a title shot (if he passes Volk or Holloway ).

[Hirose UK]

I found it very funny when Jiri said that Pereira uses black magic and that if he were a man he wouldn't use it in fights. This is a great justification to show his own failure and how out of touch with reality he is.

Haha we all know how their previous fight went and in reality Pereira was the winner, Jiri had to admit that but it was failure that he couldn't admit, whatever was said about mystical things was just joke here.

But on the other hand, this fight, which is their second, shows that Jiri Prochazka has truly extraordinary self-confidence, he said that he has prepared well and will try to win and win the championship title.
For Pereira, I think he will also show his best to defend the championship belt he already has, this is not the first time Pereira has fought to defend and risk championship belt.
I sure Pereira will get the win back and he will keep it, being the fighter who defends the light heavyweight title.

[Psynthax]

I found it very funny when Jiri said that Pereira uses black magic and that if he were a man he wouldn't use it in fights. This is a great justification to show his own failure and how out of touch with reality he is.

his entire statement is a standup comedy worthy material. it's making me laughing so hard honestly the first time I see that kind of statement.

I mean when people taps or sleep they'd always try to find some excuse, but this excuse of using magic is beyond me lmao. probably such statement could only come from him and him alone, can't imagine other people throwing such silly accusations

[tokeweed]

What do you think about Lopez vs Ortega fight? A new UFC star, Lopez, seems to be experienced in everything. Only 2 decision among 24 wins. Never got submitted. When Ortega is familiar for submission and ground games. It seems to be that this weekend Lopez is going to take Ortegas third place in rating, and in one fight is going to have a title shot (if he passes Volk or Holloway ).

I got Ortega.  Dunno...  But I feel like it's somewhat a step up for Lopez and the sports betting sites are laying Ortega as the underdog?  Yes please...

As for the rest of the roster, man I think this thing is seriously gonna be underdog city.  Like I think there's more than 5 live dogs for the event.

Some vids...

UFC 303:  Embedded Episode 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ZSZFF_grWU

UFC 303:  Embedded Episode 4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vwjt_Z4PgSQ

UFC 303:  Pre Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xVKQoTbYl48

And here's the live weigh in show.  You guys should be watching it and getting reads if you can, if you're serious about betting in these fights.

UFC 303:  Live Weigh In Show
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3N1fKsMOWa4

Edit:  And just noticed that jeremypwr's Multi Master is back.

UFC 303:  Multi Master Challenge
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5500918.0

Alex Pereira
Brian Ortega
Macy Chiasson
Roman Dolidze
Ian Machado Garry
Marc Andre Barriault
Jean Silva
Cub Swanson
Payton Talbott
Michelle Waterson Gomez
Andrei Arlovski
Carlos Hernandez
Ricky Simon

Could be a greasy card.  I see 8 underdogs winning.  Lol.  9 if I count Anthony Smith.  He's live too.

[TopTort777]

Maybe reconsider your bet on Arlovski? Even though he is a veteran and former champs, he seems to be loosing to a barely known guys. He is just old and chin has transformed into glass. Lost 3 last fights. His opponent, Martin Buday, even though he has lost last fight, was in a series of 12 wins (5 in UFC). Really, make another look on the fighters and your decision Arlovski is 45 already, he isnt planning to become a champ, join title race, he is fighting just for fun imho, or as a hobby. Imho he does not have much to lose, so it is a high change that he will get knocked out.

[cabron]

What do you think about Lopez vs Ortega fight? A new UFC star, Lopez, seems to be experienced in everything. Only 2 decision among 24 wins. Never got submitted. When Ortega is familiar for submission and ground games. It seems to be that this weekend Lopez is going to take Ortegas third place in rating, and in one fight is going to have a title shot (if he passes Volk or Holloway ).

Its a step for Ortega to defend his rank against someone who also has the potential to really knock him. Since its confirmed he couldn't make the weight, I guess there is a chance for him to look great as possible in the cage. This is short notice though. He plans to fight in the LW and then accept to fight at 145. Definitely can't make it. It happens several times when they need to cut weight and just have to fight, its often not a healthy fight for them.  

[pawel7777]

Maybe reconsider your bet on Arlovski? Even though he is a veteran and former champs, he seems to be loosing to a barely known guys. He is just old and chin has transformed into glass. Lost 3 last fights. (...)

He's only 45, the future belongs to him. He might have lost the last 3 fights, but there was clearly some progress: In October 2022 he lost in round 1, in June 2023 he lost in round 2, and in Jan 2024 he made it through the full 3 rounds and lost by decision. The pattern is clear, he's destined to win.

He also had losing streaks of 4 or even 5 in the past but managed to bounce back.

In other news, Ortega Vs Lopes got moved to 155. Allegedly Ortega really struggled to make the weight and couldn't go below 151, so the UFC contacted Lopes and said if he doesn't agree to  fight in 155 the fight will be off:
https://mmajunkie.usatoday.com/2024/06/ufc-303-weigh-ins-brian-ortega-diego-lopes-changed-lightweight-fight

I'm not sure what the implications will be (if any) in terms of the impact of the ranking, i.e. would Lopes move up in the featherweight ranks if he wins?
Also, this could be some unfair advantage to Ortega, as he didn't have to go through weight-cutting to the same degree as Lopes did. But I'm glad the fight is saved.

[Pumared]

What do you think about Lopez vs Ortega fight? A new UFC star, Lopez, seems to be experienced in everything. Only 2 decision among 24 wins. Never got submitted. When Ortega is familiar for submission and ground games. It seems to be that this weekend Lopez is going to take Ortegas third place in rating, and in one fight is going to have a title shot (if he passes Volk or Holloway ).

Diego posted that the weight was agreed upon at the last minute because Ortega was unable to make it. And unfortunately Diego accepted this agreed weight, even though they both made the weight, it is worrying for Diego. But that's the thing, whoever wants to win must be prepared for anything.

[tokeweed]

Maybe reconsider your bet on Arlovski? Even though he is a veteran and former champs, he seems to be loosing to a barely known guys. He is just old and chin has transformed into glass. Lost 3 last fights. His opponent, Martin Buday, even though he has lost last fight, was in a series of 12 wins (5 in UFC). Really, make another look on the fighters and your decision Arlovski is 45 already, he isnt planning to become a champ, join title race, he is fighting just for fun imho, or as a hobby. Imho he does not have much to lose, so it is a high change that he will get knocked out.

I'm not necessarily betting on them.  They're just leans.  And as said, it's a greasy card.  I'd prolly bet on Simon and Pereria tho.  As for the rest, I'll just enjoy watching the event.  But maybe if I get drunk, I'll prolly make a couple of small impulse bets for the lulz.  

Anyway here are the last batch of vids for 303.  Enjoy...

UFC 303:  Ceremonial Weigh Ins
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AUJxBIZyec

UFC 303:  Embedded Episode 5
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2yjRCSFSqg

UFC 303:  Embedded Episode 6
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xxRfVef7ZmM

Here are the weigh in results.

Champ Alex Pereira (204.5) vs Jiri Prochazka (204.5)
Brian Ortega (155) vs Diego Lopes (155)
Anthony Smith (206) vs Roman Dolidze (205)
Mayra Bueno Silva (136) vs Macy Chiasson (135.5)
Ian Machado Garry (170) vs Michael Page (171)
Joe Pyfer (185.5) vs Marc-Andre Barriault (185)
Cub Swanson (146) vs Andre Fili (145.5)
Charles Jourdain (146) vs Jean Silva (147.5)*
Payton Talbott (135.5) vs Yanis Ghemmouri (136)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez (115) vs Gillian Robertson (116)
Andrei Arlovski (245) vs Martin Buday (264.5)
Rei Tsuruya (125.5) vs Carlos Hernandez (125)
Ricky Simon (136) vs Vinicius Oliveira (136)

*Missed weight

[pawel7777]

Diego posted that the weight was agreed upon at the last minute because Ortega was unable to make it. And unfortunately Diego accepted this agreed weight, even though they both made the weight, it is worrying for Diego. But that's the thing, whoever wants to win must be prepared for anything.

He could've said No, i.e. just like Stephen Thompson did when he refused to fight Michel Pereira at the UFC 291 after Pereira missed the weight, stating it would be an unfair disadvantage as he had to put himself through all the pain of cutting weight, which was very taxing on the body and Pereira didn't do the same. And I agreed with his logic. There's a good reason we have rules and weight classes.

But I understand there might be some financial reasons involved. I'm not sure what's in their contracts, but I imagine if Lopes refused, he would get paid something, but it wouldn't be a full payment he would get for a fight. Or there might be a clause that a fighter who misses weight would have to sacrifice part of his purse to his opponent.

[TopTort777]

Before we start discussing main event, we must give some respect to Dan Ige That man saved this event. In fact, this event is somehow cursed Pereira with his magic McGregor vs Chandler cancelation. Ortega performance. Regards Ortega performance - missed weight, withdrew on the day of the even due illness. Ige is a real dude, who accepted fight in 4h notice and lost only by decision. That deserves a respect.

[tokeweed]

^  If Ortega was healthy I think he would've won vs Lopes who couldn't even finish or make it 30 - 27 against Ige who went in there on like a few hours short notice.

Here are the results.  Things to take note are Ian Machado Garry was shown to be not as good as everybody thinks he is.  He's a couple of fights away of getting his first loss.  Payton Talbott could be a legit prospect.  We need to see him tested against a tough vet.  Tsuruya isn't as good as where the bookies lined him at.  And Simon could go on a skid.

Alex Pereira def Jiri Prochazka  TKO R2
Diego Lopes def Dan Ige  UD
Roman Dolidze def Anthony Smith  UD
Macy Chiasson def Mayra Bueno Silva  TKO R2
Ian Machado Garry def Michael Page  UD
Joe Pyfer def Marc-Andre Barriault  KO R1
Andre Fili def Cub Swanson  SD
Jean Silva def Charles Jourdain  KO R2
Payton Talbott def Yanis Ghemmouri  KO R1
Gillian Robertson def Michelle Waterson Gomez  UD
Martin Buday def Andrei Arlovski  SD
Rei Tsuruya def Carlos Hernandez  UD
Vinicius Oliveira def Ricky Simon  UD

UFC 303:  Post Fight Press Conference
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0BeckXNvu2Q

[cabron]

^  If Ortega was healthy I think he would've won vs Lopes who couldn't even finish or make it 30 - 27 against Ige who went in there on like a few hours short notice.

Here are the results.  Things to take note are Ian Machado Garry was shown to be not as good as everybody thinks he is.  He's a couple of fights away of getting his first loss.  Payton Talbott could be a legit prospect.  We need to see him tested against a tough vet.  Tsuruya isn't as good as where the bookies lined him at.  And Simon could go on a skid.

And I also thought he would KO Ortega and whoever is the replacement, Dan must have been the craziest to accept a 3-hour notice for a fight.  It was said he was the one who requested to be the replacement since he is in shape and can fight right away.  If they fight up to R5, Deigo will lose. At the last minutes of the R3, I think is enough to say Ige can win the fight because Deigo is exhausted already.

When it comes to speed Garry has nothing to show but he was successful in taking control of Page in all rounds he managed to TD Page.

[pawel7777]

I called it, didn't I?
I knew Jiri's low hands would get him in big trouble in this one. There are fighters you can fight against with your hands low, and there are fighters you can't. Pereira is in the 2nd category.
I feel sorry for Jiri and don't want to be too harsh to him, but he was not properly prepared. He looked chaotic and there was no sign of any game plan. Even when it comes to that knock-out kick, he did see it coming but tried to block it in a very odd way, as in he fought it was a body kick and tried to catch Pereira's leg. That's a rookie mistake, but it's possible he was still dazed after that knock-down at the end of round one.

[TopTort777]

^  If Ortega was healthy I think he would've won vs Lopes who couldn't even finish or make it 30 - 27 against Ige who went in there on like a few hours short notice.

Naaah, it would be a submission definitely. Ortega is good with triangles, Lopes with armbars. They will both try to use their favourite move, until one caught opponent into something unique. Lopes surprised with performance. Won first round, spent to much stamina in second round, went to third round so tired, that in the end Ige even managed to give him a good beating at the fence. I think Lopes low performance was due to stress from unknown future. First he cut to 66kg when Ortega was 70. In the end he fought in 74kg. I suppose body wasnt ready enough to lose so much and regain quick and a lot.

I called it, didn't I?

Yeap, you predicted it. But it is Jiris fault and special move, to act unpredicted. This time what he did on the last seconds of first round? Tried that left knee or left overhand (dont remember frankly and cant rewarch at work), leaving right hand low. Got punished immediately.