Guy Corem (OP)
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April 10, 2014, 12:09:50 PM |
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Shipping out soon: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fspond_public%2Fimages%2Fflextronics-sp10.png&t=665&c=W4ZB2uonoGJCQQ)
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nikolaz
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April 10, 2014, 01:47:25 PM |
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Shipping out soon: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fspond_public%2Fimages%2Fflextronics-sp10.png&t=665&c=W4ZB2uonoGJCQQ) /Drool
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klondike_bar
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April 10, 2014, 01:59:44 PM |
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Shipping out soon:
wow that is some sexy hardware. keep it up - I am really looking forwards to the time when the SP10 can ship from stock, or at least less than a few-day pre-ordering
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RoadStress
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April 10, 2014, 03:35:56 PM |
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Bruno, but they already did delivered on time. They did it last month, they did it this month and i'm sure they will do it in May too. I DO have a SP10 mining right now and i got it a few days earlier than expected. This is the first time in bitcoin mining history when i see this happen.
Bitmain? OneStringMiner? A few other times it has happened. I wasn't aware of this so my mistake.
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Taugeran
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April 10, 2014, 04:30:29 PM |
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Is ok were only human
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Bitfury HW & Habañero : 1.625Th/s tips/Donations: 1NoS89H3Mr6U5CmP4VwWzU2318JEMxHL1 Come join Coinbase
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adam3us
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April 10, 2014, 04:44:37 PM |
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Pre-orders that aren't even due for 4 months are a huge risk to the customer. Why are you putting all that risk on the customer for the SP30? That's not how you did the SP10.
Spondoolies-Tech has more than enough money in their various coffers of various concerns to not need to take pre-orders. They are in a unique position to end this pre-order bullshit once and for all. You did see Spondoolies-Tech account specifically say 5000s of SP30s and "do the math". You also saw they publicly disclosed they had $5.5m in venture capital. BUT they have been running for 9months (employees, equipment, travel, rent etc), they funded the NRE dev costs for SP10 and SP30. They pre-paid fabrication costs for SP10 (and maybe some SP30 also?) When they say do the math... DO THE MATH.. its gotta be like $20m or something. Have $20m to lend them? Maybe get some bitcoin bazillionaire could front it? You cant just materalize $20m to give to TSMC. Even with huge funds like that its work and time to ramp up production pipeline. Minimum order time. The other thing is like Spondoolies-Tech said: however many they make, they'll probably SELL OUT immediately they get any stock, if they delayed sale and stock-piled. At any production rate there is a rate of fabrication/assembly per day. Suggest you make suggestions. What would you do: run a daily auction for those assembled on the day? Disclaimer I am a crypto consultant to Spondoolies, BUT I do not have knowledge of the finance specifics, the above is from public information they intentionally posted to this list to enable readers to do the math, I just got impatient and did the math for you. Adam
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hashcash, committed transactions, homomorphic values, blind kdf; researching decentralization, scalability and fungibility/anonymity
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Biffa
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April 10, 2014, 05:00:06 PM |
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Shipping out soon: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fspond_public%2Fimages%2Fflextronics-sp10.png&t=665&c=W4ZB2uonoGJCQQ) Nice, have you managed to cure the PSU fan speed/noise issue yet?
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Biffa
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April 10, 2014, 05:05:05 PM Last edit: April 10, 2014, 05:22:32 PM by Biffa |
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Pre-orders that aren't even due for 4 months are a huge risk to the customer. Why are you putting all that risk on the customer for the SP30? That's not how you did the SP10.
Spondoolies-Tech has more than enough money in their various coffers of various concerns to not need to take pre-orders. They are in a unique position to end this pre-order bullshit once and for all. You did see Spondoolies-Tech account specifically say 5000s of SP30s and "do the math". You also saw they publicly disclosed they had $5.5m in venture capital. BUT they have been running for 9months (employees, equipment, travel, rent etc), they funded the NRE dev costs for SP10 and SP30. They pre-paid fabrication costs for SP10 (and maybe some SP30 also?) When they say do the math... DO THE MATH.. its gotta be like $20m or something. Have $20m to lend them? Maybe get some bitcoin bazillionaire could front it? You cant just materalize $20m to give to TSMC. Even with huge funds like that its work and time to ramp up production pipeline. Minimum order time. Up to here, is doesn't matter whether you are a pre-order company or not. This is just what needs to be done to get off the ground. However, its impossible to do any of this part if you don't have VC, those companies have to do pre-orders to raise the capital to do this part of the business process. Spondoolies didn't, they had enough VC not to do pre-orders. Now maybe they ran out of cash, maybe they didn't, its just as shame they couldn't take that extra step and sell from stock. The other thing is like Spondoolies-Tech said: however many they make, they'll probably SELL OUT immediately they get any stock, if they delayed sale and stock-piled. At any production rate there is a rate of fabrication/assembly per day. Suggest you make suggestions. What would you do: run a daily auction for those assembled on the day?
Disclaimer I am a crypto consultant to Spondoolies, BUT I do not have knowledge of the finance specifics, the above is from public information they intentionally posted to this list to enable readers to do the math, I just got impatient and did the math for you.
Adam
This here is irrelevant to whether they do pre-orders or build up supply and sell from stock. Once the initial supply of units is in stock you start selling, then once you start selling you start making more units to restock your product ready for new sales. Once you get going you have a constant stream of manufacturing, a minimum level of stock to supply your customers, and a stream of sales that most probably will grow exponentially IMHO. As a business whether you choose to go down the pre-order route or to sell from stock depends on whether you want your customers to bear the burden of risk or whether the business bears that burden. For many people I would imagine that they would prefer the latter not the former, especially considering the history of this particular industry. That being said there will always be people willing to pre-order. What I *hope* starts to happen is that as Spondoolies get into their stride and have more confidence in themselves as manufacturers and their sales numbers continue to rise they will quickly start to shorten the pre-order gap. Bring it down to a week or so and then its not really a pre-order business. Either that or adopt the deposit methodolgy already discussed.
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braindead
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April 10, 2014, 05:18:22 PM |
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Shipping out soon: ![](https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=http%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fspond_public%2Fimages%2Fflextronics-sp10.png&t=665&c=W4ZB2uonoGJCQQ) /Drool Orgasmic view .. i wish they were all mine ![Cheesy](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/cheesy.gif) they look fabulous When to expect the bug in noise to be fixed?
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wpgdeez
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April 10, 2014, 07:09:55 PM |
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$390 BTC right now due to news out of China If this continues there are going to be a lot of people out money with their preorders. Hopefully it pumps up again in the fall like last year. Owners of large farms, hardware manufacturers and people sitting on chips must be getting pretty nervous now.
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raskul
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April 10, 2014, 07:18:48 PM |
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$390 BTC right now due to news out of China If this continues there are going to be a lot of people out money with their preorders. Hopefully it pumps up again in the fall like last year. Owners of large farms, hardware manufacturers and people sitting on chips must be getting pretty nervous now. remind me how many block halvings we have had to make you so nervous? still early days if you ask me. farms cash out immediately because they have to to keep up with running costs. h/w manufacturers who don't sell rigs are sitting on treasure of the future. me? i'd buy a rig now, regardless of difficulty and regardless of price.
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tips 1APp826DqjJBdsAeqpEstx6Q8hD4urac8a
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Guy Corem (OP)
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Spondoolies, Beam & DAGlabs
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April 10, 2014, 07:33:12 PM |
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Owners of large farms, hardware manufacturers and people sitting on chips must be getting pretty nervous now.
No
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adam3us
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April 10, 2014, 08:04:19 PM |
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DO THE MATH.. its gotta be like $20m or something. Have $20m to lend them? Maybe get some bitcoin bazillionaire could front it? [...] Even with huge funds like that its work and time to ramp up production pipeline. Minimum order time.
Up to here, is doesn't matter whether you are a pre-order company or not. This is just what needs to be done to get off the ground. However, its impossible to do any of this part if you don't have VC, those companies have to do pre-orders to raise the capital to do this part of the business process. Spondoolies didn't, they had enough VC not to do pre-orders. Now maybe they ran out of cash, maybe they didn't, its just as shame they couldn't take that extra step and sell from stock. continuing the do the math thread $5.5m < $20m and they already spent money they said: $5.5m - burnrate x 9 months - SP10,SP30 pre-payments to TSMC < $20m however many they make, they'll probably SELL OUT immediately they get any stock
This here is irrelevant to whether they do pre-orders or build up supply and sell from stock. Once the initial supply of units is in stock you start selling, then once you start selling you start making more units to restock your product ready for new sales. Once you get going you have a constant stream of manufacturing, a minimum level of stock to supply your customers, and a stream of sales that most probably will grow exponentially IMHO. But Spondoolies-Tech already explained to that these $20m order pipelines that they have to pay up-front are like 3months deep. Not just TSMC, the other parts. If they do what you say, their pipeline will be very low capacity. (You need lots, like > $10m up front cash to build a high capacity pipeline). So either they raise $20m (or some large amount of cash) or if they follow your advice and fund with sales, there is a 3month delay in pipeline capacity increases, they produce a trickle of hardware and ramp up really slowly. At least thats what I took from reading what was said here - I'm a crypto guy, no manufacturing pipeline experience at all! Adam (Disclaimer I'm a crypto consultant to Spondoolies)
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Syke
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April 10, 2014, 08:16:40 PM |
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At least thats what I took from reading what was said here - I'm a crypto guy, no manufacturing pipeline experience at all!
It's far more simple than that. They no longer need to risk their own cash. They can now risk their customers cash at no risk to themselves, so of course that's what they're going to do.
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Buy & Hold
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raskul
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April 10, 2014, 08:18:25 PM |
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They no longer need to risk their own cash. They can now risk their customers cash at no risk to themselves, so of course that's what they're going to do.
this is becoming boring, monotonous and repetitive now, can we discuss the actual hardware please?
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tips 1APp826DqjJBdsAeqpEstx6Q8hD4urac8a
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smooth
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April 10, 2014, 08:27:32 PM |
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The other thing is like Spondoolies-Tech said: however many they make, they'll probably SELL OUT immediately they get any stock
1) This is the real issue. and 2) What the hell is wrong with people who keep buying stuff that probably won't make money? I do know that at least in the US they probably wouldn't be able to run this pre-order scam, because the FTC rules require a seller to give a refund if the promised ship date is missed, and accounting-wise they likely couldn't even book the revenue (or at least not all of it) until finishing the work. In that case they would probably just have to get $20 million of VC money instead of $5 million ($20 million is hardly unobtainable) and the VCs would have to settle for 2500% return in the event of a successful exit instead of 10000%. But bottom line is that as long as people can't buy this (overpriced IMO) stuff fast enough, the market will find a way to stick it to them. (All numbers hypothetical of course)
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dropt
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April 10, 2014, 08:33:42 PM |
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2) What the hell is wrong with people who keep buying stuff that probably won't make money?
I do know that at least in the US they probably wouldn't be able to run this pre-order scam, because the FTC rules require a seller to give a refund if the promised ship date is missed, and accounting-wise they likely couldn't even book the revenue (or at least not all of it) until finishing the work. In that case they would probably just have to get $20 million of VC money instead of $5 million ($20 million is hardly unobtainable) and the VCs would have to settle for 2500% return in the event of a successful exit instead of 10000%.
But bottom line is that as long as people can't buy this (overpriced IMO) stuff fast enough, the market will find a way to stick it to them.
(All numbers hypothetical of course)
Now you just look foolish. BFL, Hashfast, Cointerra, Terrahash, VMC/AMC... Holy hell guy.
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smooth
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April 10, 2014, 08:38:36 PM |
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2) What the hell is wrong with people who keep buying stuff that probably won't make money?
I do know that at least in the US they probably wouldn't be able to run this pre-order scam, because the FTC rules require a seller to give a refund if the promised ship date is missed, and accounting-wise they likely couldn't even book the revenue (or at least not all of it) until finishing the work. In that case they would probably just have to get $20 million of VC money instead of $5 million ($20 million is hardly unobtainable) and the VCs would have to settle for 2500% return in the event of a successful exit instead of 10000%.
But bottom line is that as long as people can't buy this (overpriced IMO) stuff fast enough, the market will find a way to stick it to them.
(All numbers hypothetical of course)
Now you just look foolish. BFL, Hashfast, Cointerra, Terrahash, VMC/AMC... Holy hell guy. Some of those have offered (and paid) refunds and some are facing legal trouble. Obviously there are always bad actors, and in a new industry more than usual. My bottom line comment still applies though.
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raskul
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April 10, 2014, 08:40:59 PM |
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totally off-topic ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif)
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smooth
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April 10, 2014, 08:44:31 PM |
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totally off-topic ![Roll Eyes](https://bitcointalk.org/Smileys/default/rolleyes.gif) I don't entirely agree. Given that the pre-order business model is at best a massive shifting of the manufacturer's business risks to the customers and at worst arguably fraudulent, it is on-topic to warn potential customers about it, and this is one place to do so. We likely can't get them to put any prominent warnings to that effect on the nice glossy web site but we can put them here (although we can't keep them from "solving" the issue by deleting them)
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