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[rdbase]

Lewis Hamilton won't be participating in the first practice race due to an agreement with Mercedes to allow an up and coming driver to have a run for this practice race.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/formulaone/article-11032863/Lewis-Hamilton-practice-French-Grand-Prix-rookie-Nyck-Vries-set-feature.html
I don't think this will affect Hamilton's performance for the race in the France much.

[boltz]

I'm telling you, it will be a RedBull circuit. Max had pole last year and he only made a slight mistake after the start that gave Lewis the opportunity to move in front. This year will not be the same as Mercedes are nowhere near RedBull and Ferrari are still trying to figure out what happened with Sainz engine. RedBull are coming here after a defeat on home ground and after what I've read and saw in the news and also rumors , I think Redbull might take nr 1 and 3 on the grid.

Yet again ...I might be wrong but we will see...

[coinlocket$]

I'm telling you, it will be a RedBull circuit. Max had pole last year and he only made a slight mistake after the start that gave Lewis the opportunity to move in front. This year will not be the same as Mercedes are nowhere near RedBull and Ferrari are still trying to figure out what happened with Sainz engine. RedBull are coming here after a defeat on home ground and after what I've read and saw in the news and also rumors , I think Redbull might take nr 1 and 3 on the grid.

Yet again ...I might be wrong but we will see...

According to rumors Sainz will take a penalty and change the engine but it is not confirmed yet.

About the track and the last year: it makes no sense the car are different so they will all start from Zero.

Mercedes right now is in good shape and maybe they will be even the dominant car after SPA with the regulation change.

[Boristhecat]

I continue to follow the quotes of the riders, but yesterday I mixed up the thread and accidentally wrote down my observations not here, so I'll copy it:

There are still 3 whole days before the race, it is still unclear how the free practice and qualification will go, but the bookmakers see Verstappen as a clear favorite again:

Verstappen, Max - 2.15
Leclerc, Charles - 2.50
Hamilton, Lewis - 8.75
Perez, Sergio - 12.90
Russell, George - 15.90
Sainz Jr., Carlos - 20.10

It turns out that if he wins the pole position or starts from the first line, then the odds of him winning will be around 1.6 again (absolutely uninteresting for betting). The fact that Hamilton is quoted higher than Perez, Sainz and Russell in my opinion is unfair.

[buwaytress]

Verstappen, Max - 2.15
Leclerc, Charles - 2.50
Hamilton, Lewis - 8.75
Sainz Jr., Carlos - 20.10

The fact that Hamilton is quoted higher than Perez, Sainz and Russell in my opinion is unfair.

Thanks for sharing this, funny thing is I'd probably have taken Sainz at around 8/1 (knowing it's of course going to be LeClerc to take priority in any team finish) but you're right, it's not just unfair, it has to be wrong.

Hamilton more than twice as likely to win than Sainz? Am I missing something here?

Took a bet anyway, couldn't help it. I always feel once they break their duck, another win's coming soon. 21/1 for an F1 "Blackjack".

[boltz]

BREAKING: Ferrari's Carlos Sainz is set to take a grid penalty
He'll currently take a 10-place grid drop after he exceeded his allocation of control electronics


Well , it seems things are not great for Sainz in this weekend and neither for Ferrari as they were looking to take strong points with both of the cars. However, if Sainz manages to finish in top 3 , then Ferrari still have strong chances to get top 5 with both cars and also a safety car can be precious for Sainz during the race.

[tokeweed]

^  It was already expected earlier this week after Sainz's car blew up at the Austrian GP last weekend.  So if it's a 1 - 2 battle for Leclerc and Verstappen, it would be kinda safe to say Sainz gets third or fourth on the grid.  That makes him 13th or 14th to start the race on Sunday.  It makes for an interesting scenario for Sainz to finish on the podium lined at 4.00 at Stake.  Finishing top 6 should be more possible but there isn't much value at 1.40.  With the risks involved in F1 it's totally not worth it..  Even as a parlay piece.  

[Boristhecat]

Verstappen, Max - 2.15
Leclerc, Charles - 2.50
Hamilton, Lewis - 8.75
Sainz Jr., Carlos - 20.10

The fact that Hamilton is quoted higher than Perez, Sainz and Russell in my opinion is unfair.

Thanks for sharing this, funny thing is I'd probably have taken Sainz at around 8/1 (knowing it's of course going to be LeClerc to take priority in any team finish) but you're right, it's not just unfair, it has to be wrong.

Hamilton more than twice as likely to win than Sainz? Am I missing something here?

Took a bet anyway, couldn't help it. I always feel once they break their duck, another win's coming soon. 21/1 for an F1 "Blackjack".

I got this explanation:

Boris i think you are missunderstanding a few things.

-Sainz change the engine and penalize.
-Perez its more strange but.... Ferrari and Red Bull anounce from this GP they are going to give team orders, so GG to Perez and Sainz they are second drivers.
-Most important Mercedes its improving so much and this its a Mercedes GP.

So if you plus all the things i said before LH can be favourite against CS and SP.

But in my opinion, it partially explains only the odds of Sainz, but does not cancel the disproportionately large odds of the first three (moreover, these odds will most likely become even less interesting for bets after the qualification). And objectively speaking, the bet you made even with the Sainz penalty looks profitable, 1 to 27 hahaha! I think that at a distance of even 20 races, Sainz has a close to 100% chance of winning at least one race.

[buwaytress]

^ There is also a small hope that Sainz won't listen to team orders (they will always of course say they do and that's standard) -- if we recall, that's exactly how he won British GP. Team defended him and he himself didn't outright admit it, but he did have a kinda valid argument at the time (he felt he could better defend LeClerc against a supposedly faster car.

[Gianluca95]

This first part of this weekend went really great for Ferrari, both Sainz and Leclerc were really fantastic ! Hope to see them tomorrow between 1st and 2nd place and to win grand prix on sunday ! Anyway, I'm really surprised

to see that Red Bull wasn't so competitive, in this kind of circuit they are really strong, but let's see tomorrow what will happen !

[coinlocket$]

BREAKING: Ferrari's Carlos Sainz is set to take a grid penalty
He'll currently take a 10-place grid drop after he exceeded his allocation of control electronics


Well , it seems things are not great for Sainz in this weekend and neither for Ferrari as they were looking to take strong points with both of the cars. However, if Sainz manages to finish in top 3 , then Ferrari still have strong chances to get top 5 with both cars and also a safety car can be precious for Sainz during the race.

It will be a huge penalty, especially on this track where we have no sprint race or big possibilities of overtaking.

Are they using the new pumped version of the engine?

[buwaytress]

^ Yeah, finally makes sense of his 21/1 odds to win, which I took anyway, I know he won't have the fastest lap but they'll be plenty of opportunities to get to the front with laps to spare and defend. Still took LeClerc as my pole and winner for the pool though, Ferrari will gamble today and I like when the odds are stacked against them.

[rdbase]

This first part of this weekend went really great for Ferrari, both Sainz and Leclerc were really fantastic ! Hope to see them tomorrow between 1st and 2nd place and to win grand prix on sunday ! Anyway, I'm really surprised
to see that Red Bull wasn't so competitive, in this kind of circuit they are really strong, but let's see tomorrow what will happen !

The ferrari's are looking mighty for practice. I watched P1 & P2 yesterday and they both beat out Vestappen having him finish in third for both practices.
P3 is about to start and the odds makers have Lecerc and Verstappen both neck and neck at the exact dead set odds for winning the race even before qualifying had finished.

Red bull cars did not look good on this french track as the announcers had mentioned max opted for the soft tires for practice and don't quite know why since it looked like he was racing on ice. Bad choice but maybe to fool the other drivers. Who knows but it I think it will be a Ferrari day tomorrow with Sainz messing up again late in the race with car troubles.

[boltz]

It's clearly now that RedBull has the strongest car for this weekend as I think in the qualifiers , Max can be faster with almost half a second which in insane just to think about it! Charles said in FP3 that after just one lap on quali pace , the tyres are gone and he doesn't have the grip anymore ...was that a bait or not ? I think it wasn't and Ferrari is really lacking pace on both quali pace but also race pace which is way more important that qualifiers. I will stick with my plan that RedBull will win both qualifiers and then the race without any big problems.

Dark horse of the weekend ? Should be Hamilton again as he has a good chance to finish top 3 if the car will have the race pace tomorrow as they said it will.

[rdbase]

^^
Yes but practice is just that a practice run(s) so the drivers can see how the track is and how their cars react to it.
Then they adjust for when the real races count - Qualifying & Race.

Verstappen took practice 3 by a farly good margin ahead of both ferrari drivers but Leclerc did the same thing yesterday against Max.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/article.fp3-verstappen-leads-ferrari-duo-in-final-french-grand-prix-practice.426UeOcxF5EC9CullKs6CC.html

As the same thing yesterday Verstappen changed to those soft tyres as he was testing them out on the track to well, adjust.

Qualification is starting in about 45 mintues. So now we will se how those drivers have fine tuned their strategies on this slick track and when to change out their tyres so to make it count at the critical times during the race.

[boltz]

Well well well , it seems RedBull has a problem with the wind as that's why Max couldn't finish top 1 but I don't bite that as wind was kinda the same in P3 and qualifiers. Now for race , all my strategies have been messed around so I don't know what to pick anymore. Maybe Fernando Alonso winning his group ? he has 15 odds and a fair chance to finish on 4th position



What do you think guys about this bet ?

[rdbase]

^^
I like this strategy better to be honest.
They are just interviewing Lando and Alonso and they both look to be comfortable on this track in France so I would expect them to do exceedingly well.

Race is about to start in 40-45 minutes form now.
It is looking to be clear skies and they did say it was going to be a hot one there so we will see who has the best strategy when it comes to when and where to change their tyres hoping that it will win them the race.

Last I checked the odds last night Leclerc was at @2.35x which I am wanting to take and Max was @1.67x.

So it is still looking to be a favored race for Verstappen to win.

[tokeweed]

Well well well , it seems RedBull has a problem with the wind as that's why Max couldn't finish top 1 but I don't bite that as wind was kinda the same in P3 and qualifiers. Now for race , all my strategies have been messed around so I don't know what to pick anymore. Maybe Fernando Alonso winning his group ? he has 15 odds and a fair chance to finish on 4th position



What do you think guys about this bet ?

That's good value imho and with Alonso starting behind Russel too.  I'm thinking about Magnussen in group 4 at 3.00.  Drivers in the group are Vettel at 1.83, Magnussen at 3.00, Albon at 4.35 and Mick Schumacher at 10.00.  It feels like it's an easy bet for Kevin Magnussen as he's the best driver if without Vettel in the group but Magnussen having the fastest car in the group could give him the edge even if he's starting from behind these guys.

What do you  think?

[rdbase]

@tokeweed
The way the race is progress and over half way done at lap 35,
It is looking like Sainz is the best bet to make of all those to make it higher up the leaderboard so far.
As he just passed Russell 7 laps ago.

Why would Ferrari ask him to pit right when he was overtaking Perez to get a podium place?
Something is very wrong with ferrari team right now.

[Gianluca95]

@tokeweed
The way the race is progress and over half way done at lap 35,
It is looking like Sainz is the best bet to make of all those to make it higher up the leaderboard so far.
As he just passed Russell 7 laps ago.

Why would Ferrari ask him to pit right when he was overtaking Perez to get a podium place?
Something is very wrong with ferrari team right now.

I think that this has happened because of Sainz's wheel that was in their end phase. So, instead to risk to lose also the other car, they has decided to pit him. This was a bad grandprix for Ferrari, too many mistakes was

made, always thanks for their affidabilty, Leclerc deserved the victory... I don't know if he is yet in the position to win this season..