Russian Invasion of Ukraine[In Progress]

[paxmao]

...

War is a team sport.

From what we have seen so far, it looks like Putin is making all military decisions by himself.

Not quite. This is more or less publicly known but there is a select "club" of people in Russia called the "Lake Club" ("Ozero"), named after a fancy area in which an entourage of Putin built their "dachas". An entourage built on friends from St Petesburg and from his years in the KGB. A notable one is Yury Kovalchuk, possibly the second most powerful man in Putin's Russia. He along with Putin and his closed circle planned the aggression to Ukraine.

I guess what I want to say is that this war is "a team effort", the problem is that is a dysfunctional team that lacks a counterbalance in opinions and generates only the same old cold-war mafia-style ideas.

[DaRude]

If you agree with this then you shouldn't say a word when some other country seizes the western properties. Shit like this cuts both ways. I hate this hypocrisy. The west is free do kill and steal but when some other country does it, it is the worst thing ever happened.

Why is rhetoric of defending russia for accusing the West of similar actions so popular? Do you understand that your argument is based on substitution of concepts and distraction from the main subject of discussion? Do you also justify one murderer by being convicted by the same murderer? Will this first be less killer after that? And why entangle crimes of the West here now? You can create a separate thread for them. Your accusations against the West in no way diminish or smooth out what the russians are doing to Ukraine now.

Well, because context matters, history matters, and double standards and hypocrisy are a thing. Have you ever considered why Lady Justice is blindfolded? Selective justice is not justice but just another term for preferential treatment. How could you take a kangaroo court that doesn't investigate laser guided bombing killing 408 civilians hiding in the bomb shelter seriously? It's like me cheating and getting advantage in the beginning of the game and then saying, from this point on lets play by the rules. Even kids wouldn't fall for that. Precedents have consequences.

...
This war is only about Putin loosing their geostrategic grip and exclusive access on a large part of the former USSR republics, including some of the most strategic and financially critical regions such as the Black Sea and Azov Sea. All the rest is the trolls trying to make noise and trying to blame the war on things that are absolutely irrelevant to Putin and his entourage.

The sad truth is that Putin has failed to seduce, use diplomacy or economically influence those territories and he is using the last resource of the incompetent: war.

BINGO! I concur, I covered this in my soft/hard power post. Glad to finally see someone step back and look at it in terms of geostrategical grips. But keep going, don't stop there. There's a clear Hegemony in the world, there's like 100x difference in weight categories in terms of economic influence, preferential treatments seductions etc... We all know theres no way Russia can compete on that playing field. So Russia's sphere of influence was gradually being chipped away by this 1000kg guerilla. Putin drew a line on last remaining 4 countries he had left in his sphere. So what were his options when that 1000kg guerilla came after the last pieces of his sphere of influence? Either roll over and let his country be absorbed between east and west (in current global economy single country is not competitive to survive on its own), or take the last stand. I believe here we're watching him taking the last stand.

Now we come to the fun part, what happens next. The way i see it is either west manages to collapse Russia with soft power for the second time (but now has to deal with China next), or diplomats totally miscalculated and fucked up big time, giving cookies to Ukraine just went too far too fast, it cornered Russia, so west looses all leverage over Russia, Europe looses a trade partner and once again gets a totalitarian regime next door with it's gloves off. On top of that it'll have no option but to align itself with another totalitarian regime, China. That has potential for a change in a world order, that's why now everyone is watching China

[Tash]

There is plenty of history on the formation of any estate, and Ukraine is no different. In modern times, it is the people that live in a region or country that have the right to decide their future and their organisation.
......................

Exactly and the people of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic have decided they want have anything to do with Ukraine.
You nailed it.

Looks like the end is near for mariupol.
https://www.veteranstoday.com/2022/03/20/russias-mod-outlines-efforts-to-free-mariupol-hostages-from-nazi-fanatics/

[Etranger]

If you agree with this then you shouldn't say a word when some other country seizes the western properties. Shit like this cuts both ways. I hate this hypocrisy. The west is free do kill and steal but when some other country does it, it is the worst thing ever happened.

Why is rhetoric of defending russia for accusing the West of similar actions so popular? Do you understand that your argument is based on substitution of concepts and distraction from the main subject of discussion? Do you also justify one murderer by being convicted by the same murderer? Will this first be less killer after that? And why entangle crimes of the West here now? You can create a separate thread for them. Your accusations against the West in no way diminish or smooth out what the russians are doing to Ukraine now.

Well, because context matters, history matters, and double standards and hypocrisy are a thing. Have you ever considered why Lady Justice is blindfolded? Selective justice is not justice but just another term for preferential treatment. How could you take a kangaroo court that doesn't investigate laser guided bombing killing 408 civilians hiding in the bomb shelter seriously? It's like me cheating and getting advantage in the beginning of the game and then saying, from this point on lets play by the rules. Even kids wouldn't fall for that. Precedents have consequences.

The context is important when it comes to comparing two situations. The context is important when we retrospectively describe these events as part of history. But how can you say that context matters when you use it to say, "well, you know, they've died before, and generally, for example, in Syria, much more destructive weapons were used. It's not just these guys who are bad."

Just an amazing take on the situation! It only says that you do not have your own position on what is happening right now. The context can be used stupidly for everything, just to do nothing. Napoleon, you know, burned the half of the Europe, so that you can ignore the demolished Mariupol, the scale is still not the same, and in general, let's stop considering Napoleon a hero, because this is a blatantly topical issue, given the context.

[paxmao]

There is plenty of history on the formation of any estate, and Ukraine is no different. In modern times, it is the people that live in a region or country that have the right to decide their future and their organisation.
......................

Exactly and the people of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic have decided they want have anything to do with Ukraine.
You nailed it.

...

That is quite far from the truth I am afraid. Putin has been supporting a certain group but the local support is nil. Who would like to live under Putin's despotic and inhuman rule?

On Mariupol... it seems that Putin could enter the city. The obvious problem is that there is no longer a city in there, he has conquered a flat plain full of rubble, dead and hungry people. He has simply flattened it and that only leaves ill will and hate. I guess that is not an immediate problem for Putin, yet controlling a territory that is hostile is a costly effort, so this "victory" may become his new Afghanistan, but hey, feel free to consider it a victory if it happens.

Again, your trolling and citing of propaganda simply sucks. Your reputation in the forum is being permanently damaged, but hey, call it a victory for you if you want.

...

Now we come to the fun part, what happens next. The way i see it is either west manages to collapse Russia with soft power for the second time (but now has to deal with China next), or diplomats totally miscalculated and fucked up big time, giving cookies to Ukraine just went too far too fast, it cornered Russia, so west looses all leverage over Russia, Europe looses a trade partner and once again gets a totalitarian regime next door with it's gloves off. On top of that it'll have no option but to align itself with another totalitarian regime, China. That has potential for a change in a world order, that's why now everyone is watching China

There is no fun part in all this. Europe will not "align" with China much more that already was. This war has shown how totalitarian regimes need to always be considered a risk.

What is clear is that Europe may actually create a real army of its own. The problem with armies, particularly if large, is that they tend to justify their cost creating wars.

[Tash]

There is plenty of history on the formation of any estate, and Ukraine is no different. In modern times, it is the people that live in a region or country that have the right to decide their future and their organisation.
......................

Exactly and the people of Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic have decided they want have anything to do with Ukraine.
You nailed it.

...

That is quite far from the truth I am afraid. Putin has been supporting a certain group but the local support is nil. Who would like to live under Putin's despotic and inhuman rule?

On Mariupol... it seems that Putin could enter the city. The obvious problem is that there is no longer a city in there, he has conquered a flat plain full of rubble, dead and hungry people. He has simply flattened it and that only leaves ill will and hate. I guess that is not an immediate problem for Putin, yet controlling a territory that is hostile is a costly effort, so this "victory" may become his new Afghanistan, but hey, feel free to consider it a victory if it happens.

Again, your trolling and citing of propaganda simply sucks. Your reputation in the forum is being permanently damaged, but hey, call it a victory for you if you want.

...

Now we come to the fun part, what happens next. The way i see it is either west manages to collapse Russia with soft power for the second time (but now has to deal with China next), or diplomats totally miscalculated and fucked up big time, giving cookies to Ukraine just went too far too fast, it cornered Russia, so west looses all leverage over Russia, Europe looses a trade partner and once again gets a totalitarian regime next door with it's gloves off. On top of that it'll have no option but to align itself with another totalitarian regime, China. That has potential for a change in a world order, that's why now everyone is watching China

There is no fun part in all this. Europe will not "align" with China much more that already was. This war has shown how totalitarian regimes need to always be considered a risk.

What is clear is that Europe may actually create a real army of its own. The problem with armies, particularly if large, is that they tend to justify their cost creating wars.

That is why they have the own countries, they don't want Putin, they want away from Ukraine govenment terror.
Fast majority of Ukraine history Donesk region has not been part of Ukraine anyway.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donetsk_People's_Republic
https://web.archive.org/web/20220224051432/http://gorod-donetsk.com/
and
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luhansk_People's_Republic
https://glava-lnr.su/

[be.open]

On Mariupol... it seems that Putin could enter the city. The obvious problem is that there is no longer a city in there, he has conquered a flat plain full of rubble, dead and hungry people. He has simply flattened it and that only leaves ill will and hate. I guess that is not an immediate problem for Putin, yet controlling a territory that is hostile is a costly effort, so this "victory" may become his new Afghanistan, but hey, feel free to consider it a victory if it happens.

The occupation of Ukraine is not the purpose of the special operation. Ukraine will lose its army and ultra-right nationalists, just as it has already lost Crimea, Donbass and Lugansk. And then she will begin to build a new peaceful life, while maintaining neutrality and loyalty to Russia. Because the blood ties between our peoples are stronger than the current ideological differences.

[af_newbie]

On Mariupol... it seems that Putin could enter the city. The obvious problem is that there is no longer a city in there, he has conquered a flat plain full of rubble, dead and hungry people. He has simply flattened it and that only leaves ill will and hate. I guess that is not an immediate problem for Putin, yet controlling a territory that is hostile is a costly effort, so this "victory" may become his new Afghanistan, but hey, feel free to consider it a victory if it happens.

The occupation of Ukraine is not the purpose of the special operation. Ukraine will lose its army and ultra-right nationalists, just as it has already lost Crimea, Donbass and Lugansk. And then she will begin to build a new peaceful life, while maintaining neutrality and loyalty to Russia. Because the blood ties between our peoples are stronger than the current ideological differences.

The only way there will be peace in this world is when all pro-Soviet imperialist enthusiasts are killed, in Russia and abroad (Belarus, Crimea, Donbas, Chechnya, Ossetia, Transnistria, etc).

[be.open]

The only way there will be peace in this world is when all pro-Soviet imperialist enthusiasts are killed, in Russia and abroad (Belarus, Crimea, Donbas, Chechnya, Ossetia, Transnistria, etc).

Peace in Ukraine will come much sooner than you think, because according to your version, it will never come.

[Etranger]

The occupation of Ukraine is not the purpose of the special operation.

Yeah, the purpose of this ''special operation'' (my God, just two words, but they really tell everything about your inability to think) is to finally convince the whole world that your society needs nothing more than propaganda and assassinations on which you build a sick sense of self-sufficiency.

And then she will begin to build a new peaceful life, while maintaining neutrality and loyalty to Russia. Because the blood ties between our peoples are stronger than the current ideological differences.

How can you be so brainwashed and not even notice it? Do you really think that Russia is worth dealing with? You live by ear in shit and consider it a normal peaceful life? When the FSB can come to you at any time because of "inapropriate" Instagram post? I strongly advise you to raise money (better not in rubles, because nothing will work) and go at least once in your life to really normal, developed countries - in Austria, Switzerland, Germany. Try to use the rest of your brain to compare how people live there and how your people live, for example, in Orlovshchina.

[be.open]

The occupation of Ukraine is not the purpose of the special operation.

Yeah, the purpose of this ''special operation'' (my God, just two words, but they really tell everything about your inability to think) is to finally convince the whole world that your society needs nothing more than propaganda and assassinations on which you build a sick sense of self-sufficiency.

And then she will begin to build a new peaceful life, while maintaining neutrality and loyalty to Russia. Because the blood ties between our peoples are stronger than the current ideological differences.

How can you be so brainwashed and not even notice it? Do you really think that Russia is worth dealing with? You live by ear in shit and consider it a normal peaceful life? When the FSB can come to you at any time because of "inapropriate" Instagram post? I strongly advise you to raise money (better not in rubles, because nothing will work) and go at least once in your life to really normal, developed countries - in Austria, Switzerland, Germany. Try to use the rest of your brain to compare how people live there and how your people live, for example, in Orlovshchina.

Russophobia, problems with refugees, expensive gasoline, expensive food, expensive electricity, high unemployment are now thriving in Europe, and there is no certainty that the situation will change for the better. I can move to Europe, but I can't stop being Russian. Thank you but no. I'd rather live in my homeland brainwashed than in a foreign land with burnt porridge in my head. 

[Etranger]

Russophobia, problems with refugees, expensive gasoline, expensive food, expensive electricity, high unemployment are now thriving in Europe, and there is no certainty that the situation will change for the better. I can move to Europe, but I can't stop being Russian. Thank you but no. I'd rather live in my homeland brainwashed than in a foreign land with burnt porridge in my head.  

If other problems can be argued, the russophobia was spread by the russians themselves. Now the whole civilized world has seen who you really are. And everyone only dreams of you sitting in your Russia and do not touch anyone. If you had better do it, why the hell are you sending your fucking missiles and tanks to my country?

Problems with refugees? Thanks to you, 3.2 million of Ukrainians were forced to leave their homes. Me included. Today your stupid bastards, which you call army, sent 3 rockets, which destroyed the district, where I used to live. There was nothing except for civil houses, mall and several schools.


Expensive gasoline, expensive food, expensive electricity? Of course, it`s better to live in a wood house your grandgrandpa lived, but tell everyone about cheap tarifs and groceries. More that half of your people live like that.

High unemployment? Tell me, what is it that Russia creates that is so unique and developed that you don't have a high level of unemployment? Where are your people involved, other than in a war machine that only kills and destroys for its purpose?

[be.open]

If other problems can be argued, the russophobia was spread by the russians themselves. Now the whole civilized world has seen who you really are. And everyone only dreams of you sitting in your Russia and do not touch anyone. If you had better do it, why the hell are you sending your fucking missiles and tanks to my country?

Because Donbass and Luhansk asked Russia for help, after eight years of bombing and fruitless efforts by diplomats to implement the Minsk agreements. Remind you of the words of Poroshenko, who said about the Donbass "our children will go to school, and yours will rot in the basements"? You have a short memory. The war on the territory of Ukraine has been going on for eight years, and soon it will finally end.

[DaRude]

If you agree with this then you shouldn't say a word when some other country seizes the western properties. Shit like this cuts both ways. I hate this hypocrisy. The west is free do kill and steal but when some other country does it, it is the worst thing ever happened.

Why is rhetoric of defending russia for accusing the West of similar actions so popular? Do you understand that your argument is based on substitution of concepts and distraction from the main subject of discussion? Do you also justify one murderer by being convicted by the same murderer? Will this first be less killer after that? And why entangle crimes of the West here now? You can create a separate thread for them. Your accusations against the West in no way diminish or smooth out what the russians are doing to Ukraine now.

Well, because context matters, history matters, and double standards and hypocrisy are a thing. Have you ever considered why Lady Justice is blindfolded? Selective justice is not justice but just another term for preferential treatment. How could you take a kangaroo court that doesn't investigate laser guided bombing killing 408 civilians hiding in the bomb shelter seriously? It's like me cheating and getting advantage in the beginning of the game and then saying, from this point on lets play by the rules. Even kids wouldn't fall for that. Precedents have consequences.

The context is important when it comes to comparing two situations. The context is important when we retrospectively describe these events as part of history. But how can you say that context matters when you use it to say, "well, you know, they've died before, and generally, for example, in Syria, much more destructive weapons were used. It's not just these guys who are bad."

Just an amazing take on the situation! It only says that you do not have your own position on what is happening right now. The context can be used stupidly for everything, just to do nothing. Napoleon, you know, burned the half of the Europe, so that you can ignore the demolished Mariupol, the scale is still not the same, and in general, let's stop considering Napoleon a hero, because this is a blatantly topical issue, given the context.

Sure, without context think everyone can agree that every war is bad, innocent civilians and children die, war is hell. But claiming low or high innocent civilian casualties, is quantitative, and cannot be done without context. Also, statements like bombing of civilian targets, is it just a neutral statement in urban warfare, akin to saying that bullets fly during wars, or there are implications of war crimes and extreme violence which cannot be discussed without context. I have utmost respect for pacifists, but you have to be consistent. What does it tell you about people who in one instance of a larger human suffering can go throughout their day without blinking or even knowing, but in another instance, they are all activated, they suddenly take up a strong civilian position, put up flags, start donating etc... Isn't such preferential treatment just diminishes all other human sufferings? Of course this wouldn't apply to people directly effected by this war, they're the only ones that can be biased.

...

...

Now we come to the fun part, what happens next. The way i see it is either west manages to collapse Russia with soft power for the second time (but now has to deal with China next), or diplomats totally miscalculated and fucked up big time, giving cookies to Ukraine just went too far too fast, it cornered Russia, so west looses all leverage over Russia, Europe looses a trade partner and once again gets a totalitarian regime next door with it's gloves off. On top of that it'll have no option but to align itself with another totalitarian regime, China. That has potential for a change in a world order, that's why now everyone is watching China

There is no fun part in all this. Europe will not "align" with China much more that already was. This war has shown how totalitarian regimes need to always be considered a risk.

What is clear is that Europe may actually create a real army of its own. The problem with armies, particularly if large, is that they tend to justify their cost creating wars.

Perhaps a poor use of words, i meant fun in terms of intellectually challenging to predict. Don't get fooled, just because soft power comes without tanks doesn't mean that it cannot be more devastating in terms of human suffering than tanks. What do you think will happen to the following trends if instead of collapsing, Russia is pushed to radicalize, becomes a totalitarian state and aligns with China by providing it say a 20% discount on all natural resources Russia exports? Sanctions will contract world largest grain exporter (Russia) economy, what are the chances it would lead to famine and wars in Africa? Who will current actions benefit, and at what point do you think we should stop thinking in terms of right/wrong what should be done and start thinking if anything can be done? How competitive in global economy will EU be if it's labour and now raw resource costs will be that much higher than China, what would unemployment rates be at, will US help EU out or it'll be dealing with its own issues etc etc etc ...? There are reasons why global politics is complicated and not all black/white.

https://www.ft.com/content/56f1eb6b-6abb-44a9-abe2-78494f39f435

[paxmao]

...

That is why they have the own countries, they don't want Putin, they want away from Ukraine govenment terror.
Fast majority of Ukraine history Donesk region has not been part of Ukraine anyway.
...

We have already discussed this over and over. If you go back in time, it was actually Kyiv where Russia (the Russ of Kyiv) was born. But that is just history, and it is for the people who actually live there to choose their destiny, and as I said, Putin has failed to demonstrate any value or attractiveness to the old Soviet Republics - not that he has tried much - and now has to resort to aggression.

As Putin lives in a world of Cold War, you live in a world in which there is an inherent "god given right to rule" a territory, regardless of what the people living there think, want or decide. From the XX century you have made a great personal philosophical progress into the medieval ages, serfdom and the Romanovs.

...


Perhaps a poor use of words, i meant fun in terms of intellectually challenging to predict. Don't get fooled, just because soft power comes without tanks doesn't mean that it cannot be more devastating in terms of human suffering than tanks. ...

On that, I can agree. Soft and hard power have devastated Latin America and large parts of Africa. Perhaps the difference is that you can try to escape soft power and go somewhere else - a privilege not granted to Mariupol civils.


EDITED: I added a post in the economy section, as it seems appropriate, but just a short comment here. If you do not know what this is, probably you should.

On Mariupol... it seems that Putin could enter the city. The obvious problem is that there is no longer a city in there, he has conquered a flat plain full of rubble, dead and hungry people. He has simply flattened it and that only leaves ill will and hate. I guess that is not an immediate problem for Putin, yet controlling a territory that is hostile is a costly effort, so this "victory" may become his new Afghanistan, but hey, feel free to consider it a victory if it happens.

The occupation of Ukraine is not the purpose of the special operation. Ukraine will lose its army and ultra-right nationalists, just as it has already lost Crimea, Donbass and Lugansk. And then she will begin to build a new peaceful life, while maintaining neutrality and loyalty to Russia. Because the blood ties between our peoples are stronger than the current ideological differences.

Sure, your brother gonna luv ya boy. They are going to be soooo neutral and sooo peaceful they'r gunna throw flowers at Putin's soldiers for decades. Whatever yu'rsmouking I wanna.



I am not even going to bother answering your shitty propaganda.

[be.open]

I am not even going to bother answering your shitty propaganda.

And yet you just did it. 

I think in Ukraine everything will be about the same as in Georgia, after the armed conflict in Abkhazia and North Ossetia, which Georgia still considers to be occupied territories. Abkhazia is now almost like Russia, you can enter there without a visa on an internal Russian passport and the currency there is the Russian ruble. In Abkhazia, they love and respect the Russians, who saved them from the attack of Georgian thugs. Russians are also loved and respected in Georgia. Although the Russian military is still in Abkhazia, which Georgia considers its territory. This is a paradox and at the same time it is true.

Russia does not need the love of Ukrainians and their flowers for Russian soldiers. Ukraine is a heterogeneous country - eastern Ukraine is historically Russian-speaking and traditionally loyal to Russia, while western Ukraine historically gravitates towards Poland and is in opposition to Russia. So did Poland, although Russia liberated it from Nazi Germany. These are the features of the national mentality in which these nations find their self-identity. This is acceptable for Russia as long as the anti-Russian rhetoric does not go into action and become a source of strategic threats to Russia's security.

[af_newbie]

I am not even going to bother answering your shitty propaganda.

And yet you just did it. 

I think in Ukraine everything will be about the same as in Georgia, after the armed conflict in Abkhazia and North Ossetia, which Georgia still considers to be occupied territories. Abkhazia is now almost like Russia, you can enter there without a visa on an internal Russian passport and the currency there is the Russian ruble. In Abkhazia, they love and respect the Russians, who saved them from the attack of Georgian thugs. Russians are also loved and respected in Georgia. Although the Russian military is still in Abkhazia, which Georgia considers its territory. This is a paradox and at the same time it is true.

Russia does not need the love of Ukrainians and their flowers for Russian soldiers. Ukraine is a heterogeneous country - eastern Ukraine is historically Russian-speaking and traditionally loyal to Russia, while western Ukraine historically gravitates towards Poland and is in opposition to Russia. So did Poland, although Russia liberated it from Nazi Germany. These are the features of the national mentality in which these nations find their self-identity. This is acceptable for Russia as long as the anti-Russian rhetoric does not go into action and become a source of strategic threats to Russia's security.

That is the exact mistake Putin has made. Russian-speaking Ukrainians are Ukrainians, not Russians.
They have a completely different culture, different values, morals, and ethics. They are Europeans.

Russians are Mongols, aka Kacaps.

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.

[be.open]

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.

Well, that means they'll die. The right to live includes the right to die. The principled selfless position is worthy of respect, but according to Darwin's theory, it is not even the strongest who survive, but those who are able to adapt to changing environmental conditions.

[suchmoon]

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.

Well, that means they'll die.

Yes, Captain Obvious, aggressors will die. That's the whole point.

[be.open]

Ukrainians will be fighting Russian aggressors to death.

Well, that means they'll die.

Yes, Captain Obvious, aggressors will die. That's the whole point.

In Kyiv on May 9 2022, a traditional parade will be held in honor of the victory of the USSR over Nazi Germany. It is naive and foolish to doubt it.