Russian Gas ban - A problem for Europe or suicide for Russia?

[Rikafip]

Well, if the people of Russia like to live in poverty, it was still weak poverty. The main difficulties are ahead of them and they can no longer be avoided. Putin lives his own life and he almost doesn't give a damn about the population of Russia. Judging by the recent decisions he has made regarding Ukraine, he is not all right mentally. The Russians will suffer greatly from this in the next few decades.

I didn't say that they like to live in poverty but that they have rather extensive experience when it comes to that. And its not like they can replace Putin on elections, even if they want to (and that is a question since many of them have been brainwashed by propaganda). The only way I see Putin being removed is death so until then nothing much can be done, and even when he is gone, chances are that someone similar will replace him.

Yes, they managed the highest quality of life by sucking other country's wealth not by farming and selling oil and gas.

That's literally how Norway became one of the richest country in the world, by selling oil and gas, without invading anyone. The only difference between them and Russians is that they used that money to increase quality of life of their people while in Russia selected few got rich while rest got little or nothing. And that's why an average Russian probably lives worse than even average citizen of one of the poorest EU countries, despite all of their natural wealth.

Russia was devastated by the Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, and many more.

Poor excuse. What about half of the Europe that was controlled by USSR for more than four decades? I advise you to go to baltic countries, Poland, Czech republic, Slovakia, Hungary etc and ask them how it was for them.

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[bittraffic]

European countries still managed to not only survive but become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.

Yes, they managed the highest quality of life by sucking other country's wealth not by farming and selling oil and gas. In the colonial age, European countries steal an enormous amount of wealth from Asia and Africa, and many countries still facing that's consequences.

The Russians can live a low profile life because that’s how they lived for years. It wouldn’t bother them that much. The Europeans however have been living in luxury for a long time. If they can’t replace the Russian gas and they probably won’t, it may start civil unrests in the European countries. I don’t see Russia losing anything here tbh.

Maybe they won’t be able to purchase the newest iPhones or European made cars but they won’t die of hunger that’s for sure.

On the other hand, if Germany can’t find an alternative to the Russian gas, the impact on their industry will be devastating. France will probably not get affected that much because they mostly rely on nuclear power.

Russia was devastated by the Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, and many more. This country has been raised from ashes many times so it's clear they have a strong mindset of people. Russia's economy was already in bad shape pre-Ukraine war so I think they don't have anything to lose here. Also for a product below market price always have a buyer. If European doesn't want to buy Russian oil and gas other countries will at a discount rate.

History has a lot to discover from where we are today. A reader will have to look back, what justice they look for when all we do here are just keep looting each other. Even the whole American continent was being divided in 3. The Canada for French, The south for Spain and the middle for UK and they don't mind whoever occupy that continent before them which they are branded as illegal immigrants when crossing borders.

If EU can't produce their own gas, they will be divided for the crisis will make people revolt. They better handle this before some of them make a deal with Russia for gas.

[Lucius]

Just business as usual, seen many times before. American companies were selling oil to Germany during WW2, our generals were making fortune by selling oil to Serbs during our war etc.

The problem is that people have a hard time accepting that business and economic interests always come first, which is more than clear from this war. Of course, there are always exceptions, but in this particular case, the EU has once again shown that it is divided into several blocks that operate independently of the common policy. Hungary is playing its own game, the Baltic countries and Poland are advocating absolute sanctions, while Germany is trying to balance its actions towards Russia because it is most dependent on its gas.

As can be seen in my previous post, even our country has increased imports of Russian oil (which is not discussed in the media), all because a good part of that oil is sent to Serbia - which is again the case for itself as Russia's biggest ally in this part of Europe.

[fiulpro]

The Russians are trying to do things that can somehow save their whole economic system from falling. They are trying to sell the gas at any price possible, they are even taking it to the mass media, this does straight away shows their desperation to sell the gas right now since they have stuck a literal war on their business at the moment.
There are certain EU countries which are more affected than the other ones like : Germany, Italy and France and at the end of the day they are tackling inflation in the prices of normal commodities making it harder for a general person to tackle the whole thing systemically.
The plan would be to somehow try and make things normal, it starts with Russia dropping down the weapons and taking responsibility for their bad decision, plus if that does not happen then the other EU countries might have to try and support the most vulnerable countries, try and provide them with gas somehow to curb the inflation.

[777Jolami]

Russia's gas ban will affect Europe and Russia.  Russia will lose a large source of financial revenue, causing a great impact on the economy.  Not to mention the US financial sanctions will make it difficult for Russian merchants to do business globally.  Europe has to pay more for energy, goods and other services.  The risk of a recession has also increased across the region.

[Synchronice]

Also, there is one thing: Who wants to strengthen the relationship with Russia but destroy with Western countries?

Most countries would not
China cod risk it, as majority of the world are heavily dependent on them, more so than Russia and as such they would not expect as stri k sanctions from the rest of the world.

Small correction: The majority of the world isn't dependent on China, 0 country is dependent on them alone because I have never seen Chinese people working for other nations. Economically, we all trade and we are dependent on each other. Countries are dependent on China the same way China is dependent on them.
China buys the US's debt by purchasing the US Bonds. This lowers the value of the Yuan and keeps manufacturing in China cheap but this benefits their export. This is a sacrifice to benefit in the future as it's already expected that China's Economy may overtake US Economy by 2030. China needs the rest of the world for its plans and the world needs China for its own plans, who is the smartest here, this is another question.

The Russians can live a low profile life because that’s how they lived for years. It wouldn’t bother them that much. The Europeans however have been living in luxury for a long time. If they can’t replace the Russian gas and they probably won’t, it may start civil unrests in the European countries. I don’t see Russia losing anything here tbh.

They can and will live a low profile life because they spend too much on the military.
I don't think that there will be civil unrest in the European countries because people here realize that war is no good and the Russia is not a reliable and peaceful partner. There is empathy toward Ukraine in European countries.

Russia was devastated by the Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, and many more. This country has been raised from ashes many times so it's clear they have a strong mindset of people. Russia's economy was already in bad shape pre-Ukraine war so I think they don't have anything to lose here. Also for a product below market price always have a buyer. If European doesn't want to buy Russian oil and gas other countries will at a discount rate.

Okay, the world has become more human & civil. What about the recent history?

In 1932 and 1933, millions of Ukrainians were killed in the Holodomor, a man-made famine engineered by the Soviet government of Joseph Stalin. Source: University Of Minnesotaa

Do you know what the word Holodomor means? Holod - hunger & Mor - extermination. Russia killed people in Ukraine by hunger, they left people without food and because of this, people were even eating each-other, many instances of cannibalism were recorded.
In 2008 Russia invaded Georgia.
In 2014 Russia invaded Crimea.
In 2022 Russia invaded Ukraine.
We live in the 21st century, what's wrong with them?

[Upgrade00]

Small correction: The majority of the world isn't dependent on China, 0 country is dependent on them alone because I have never seen Chinese people working for other nations. Economically, we all trade and we are dependent on each other. Countries are dependent on China the same way China is dependent on them.

You are right, Nations are dependent on each other; while some might be the major producers of certain commodities or services, they need a market to purchase them.

If you consider the situation in Russia, many EU countries are against their actions, but need to be lenient on sanctions as they get their oil and gas from them, that's the situation I was trying to point out in China; If they happen to take an action which puts them in disagreement with the West, heavy sanctions cannot easily be imposed as these Nations rely on raw materials from China. China of course would suffer if they lose the demand, but as the major suppliers, countries would struggle to find alternatives, just as they are doing with Russia.

[Hydrogen]

Don't you think that after all the innovations that come from the USA and Europe, can't we significantly lessen the demand on gas and oil if the situation really requires that from us as soon as possible?

Russia built a mousetrap called russian oil and gas. Its up to someone to invent a better mousetrap than what russia currently has.

An alternative that can solve energy demands in a more convenient and affordable fashion. For that we look to energy markets. New developments and innovations. Europe might switch to electric heaters powered by the electrical grid. But it would require improvement of grid infrastructure and power generation that isn't supplied by russian sources. There is a question of where funding for these projects would be supplied from.

Much of europe appears to lack the sunlight for alternative solar power. And wind to switch to windmill based energy. This results in nuclear and fossil fuel being deemed most appropriate for the region.

Hydrogen energy could be worth pursuing for europe(and no I'm not biased because of my username). That could be one available energy market russia lacks a dominant presence in. It has been said that current gasoline transportation and storage units can accommodate hydrogen fuel. Which means a good part of the necessary infrastructure is already in place.

There are hydrogen concept vehicles being driven and tested for all to see:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ONICQ9Xcaug

The technology may finally be ready for prime time application.

[bakasabo]

Russia was devastated by the Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, and many more.

Poor excuse. What about half of the Europe that was controlled by USSR for more than four decades? I advise you to go to baltic countries, Poland, Czech republic, Slovakia, Hungary etc and ask them how it was for them.

And their opinion will divide into two popular answers, was better in USSR from those who have Russian roots and was worse in USSR for native country citizens. During USSR, in my country lots of factories were build, industry was working at full power. After USSR ended and our country became independent, every single factory now is either closed or on its place shopping mall is built.

Right now my country produce little by itself, and got almost everything imported - because imported goods fit euro standards. We produce milk, export it to other EU country (there, something is added into my, to fit euro standards. we dont have such factories in our country), and then buy it back for a higher price. Crazy. I can say that during USSR my life was better (even though I was a kid).

Back to topic - if Europe refuses Russian gas completely, Russia will find a place to sell it, or can substitute losses other resources. But the Europe will have hard time. In one of regions in my country, starting from May, gas price will be 4 times more than current. Private property can change gas heating into electric, or use granules, firewood at the end of the skates. But I cant imagine what will panel houses do.

[Mauser]

Europe & USA have a huge advantage over Russia, this is the education. Where do people go dream to study? In Russia, no! In the USA, UK, Germany, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland and other countries? Hell yes! Were top scientists from Russia? Hell no! But from western countries - hell yes.

Sure the education in western countries seems much higher than in Russia, but there is a big issue here in Europa what we don't have and what Russia has a lot of. And that is natural resources. On paper Europe looks like a good continent with a lot of strong countries. But if the whole world trading would collapse, so would Europa. We are highly dependant on imports. The question is on what cost is Europe willing to cancel the gas trade with Russia? Buying gas from Russia makes the most sense for us because it's the closest country and they already have pipelines running to us. It takes years to build pipelines, we can't just change the infrastructure for gas overnight. There is a lot of good ideas how a nation can reduce it dependency on gas and move to other energy sources, the problem is that none of these options can be short term.  Also how long will these sanctions against Russia going to last? Should we never buy anymore gas from Russia? Not even in 5 or 10 years? I don't think it's possible to have forever lasting sanctions. The economic cost for Europe is much higher from the sanction than American or Asian countries.

[laredo7mm]

Sure the education in western countries seems much higher than in Russia, but there is a big issue here in Europa what we don't have and what Russia has a lot of. And that is natural resources. On paper Europe looks like a good continent with a lot of strong countries. But if the whole world trading would collapse, so would Europa. We are highly dependant on imports. The question is on what cost is Europe willing to cancel the gas trade with Russia? Buying gas from Russia makes the most sense for us because it's the closest country and they already have pipelines running to us. It takes years to build pipelines, we can't just change the infrastructure for gas overnight. There is a lot of good ideas how a nation can reduce it dependency on gas and move to other energy sources, the problem is that none of these options can be short term.  Also how long will these sanctions against Russia going to last? Should we never buy anymore gas from Russia? Not even in 5 or 10 years? I don't think it's possible to have forever lasting sanctions. The economic cost for Europe is much higher from the sanction than American or Asian countries.

Europe is very much dependent on Russian gas not only for running their factories but also to keep their house warm. Europe wants to avoid an all-out war in their continent no matter what but it seems the USA has some other plan. They are selling arms to Ukraine with eyewash help when their aim is to prolong the war so that they could suck Russia's military arsenal through this war and continue arm business.

Russia was devastated by the Mongols, Napoleon, Hitler, and many more.

Poor excuse. What about half of the Europe that was controlled by USSR for more than four decades? I advise you to go to baltic countries, Poland, Czech republic, Slovakia, Hungary etc and ask them how it was for them.

Right now my country produce little by itself, and got almost everything imported - because imported goods fit euro standards. We produce milk, export it to other EU country (there, something is added into my, to fit euro standards. we dont have such factories in our country), and then buy it back for a higher price. Crazy. I can say that during USSR my life was better (even though I was a kid).

Many will disagree with you about it because USSR was not a supporter of capitalist ideology.

[24Kt]

Europe & USA have a huge advantage over Russia, this is the education. Where do people go dream to study? In Russia, no! In the USA, UK, Germany, Canada, France, Ireland, Switzerland and other countries? Hell yes! Were top scientists from Russia? Hell no! But from western countries - hell yes.

Sure the education in western countries seems much higher than in Russia, but there is a big issue here in Europa what we don't have and what Russia has a lot of. And that is natural resources. On paper Europe looks like a good continent with a lot of strong countries. But if the whole world trading would collapse, so would Europa. We are highly dependant on imports. The question is on what cost is Europe willing to cancel the gas trade with Russia? Buying gas from Russia makes the most sense for us because it's the closest country and they already have pipelines running to us. It takes years to build pipelines, we can't just change the infrastructure for gas overnight. There is a lot of good ideas how a nation can reduce it dependency on gas and move to other energy sources, the problem is that none of these options can be short term.  Also how long will these sanctions against Russia going to last? Should we never buy anymore gas from Russia? Not even in 5 or 10 years? I don't think it's possible to have forever lasting sanctions. The economic cost for Europe is much higher from the sanction than American or Asian countries.

In this scenario, it is not about the education in question but the resources that they have. You are right that it would be hard for these Euro countries to totally abandon the gas supplies from Russia because it has been established long time. These sanctions, I think, is not forever. Who knows, Russian people will oust Putin? So once Putin is out, their gas supply to the neighboring countries will resume. But for now, even if US or these Euro countries have tons of scientists, still they need to work on what kind of resources they have.

[be.open]

How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Let's assume that Europe will act as a united front and resolutely refuse gas supplies from Russia (which is very doubtful, given the great unevenness in dependence on Russian gas in different European countries, but let's assume). Is it really necessary for Russia to completely replace the lost European market? Generally speaking, no, because the resulting shortage of gas supplies will provoke a further increase in gas prices throughout the world, and Russia will be able to receive the same money by supplying a smaller amount of gas. Given Russia's chronic budget surpluses and the very conservative budgeted oil and gas prices, Russia could be quite comfortable even if it loses significantly in energy export revenues or if it provides a large discount on them. Therefore, my opinion is that the rejection of Russian gas is economic suicide for Europe and an unfortunate temporary logistical discomfort for Russia.

[NeuroticFish]

Russia built a mousetrap called russian oil and gas.

Well said. The thing is that European politicians made it even worse by not thinking it through with their (well intended, awfully implemented) green deal.
Now it depends on how the things go. The "gas for Rubles" was a bad move from Russia and the continuation with closing the pipe for certain countries is even worse for them.

Yes, Europe will suffer for some years (which will, interestingly, helps USA, which is exactly Russia's nightmare), but it will force them/us allow actual competition between the various possible suppliers, no longer favoring Russia. This will make, on long term, Europe stronger, USA richer and Russia poorer.
This, together with the full display of what's behind the image of the "great" Russian army, might cause long term troubles for Russia (and Japan is already hinting that, almost trying to force WW3).

[pooya87]

become the most amazing countries with the highest quality of life.

Interesting how "highest quality of life" means also highest suicide rates

How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?

You are asking the wrong question.
You should be asking how the fuck the European countries replace Russian energy imports? As long as they have no other option and no other plan on doing anything about it, they will rely on those imports and continue pouring money into Russia's pockets.

2. China and India probably sees that good relationship with West is better for them

Both of them are having good relationship with Russia just like Europe has. They've also already increased their trades over the past month!

In this war, we don't need to focus on military equipment but on our weak sides, everyone sees how bad military equipment Russia has compared to the western countries.

You are seriously misinformed.
There is no doubt that Russian military equipment is very weak but it is just as weak as their Western counterparts. Just look at the wars that US-NATO coalition have had in the past 7 decades. They are all loss after loss after loss. Majority of them they lose to weak militias that don't even have half-decent equipment! For fuck sake they lost to Cavemen called Taliban in Afghanistan that don't even know what technology is.

Name one western military equipment that has functioned as advertised? LOL

[Rikafip]

Many will disagree with you about it because USSR was not a supporter of capitalist ideology.

Many will disagree because majority of people lived worse in the countries controlled by USSR, as simple as that. The only ones who maybe lived better are those that were high in the communist parties of their countries (less common), or because they are looking at the past through rose-tinted glasses (more common).

Take Germany for example; the part of Germany (aka DDR, another non-democratic country that likes to use "democratic" in their name, like North Korea is doing) that was controlled by USSR had to build the wall, put barb wire and mine fields in order to stop people deflecting, and even that didn't stop it entirely as people were willing to risk their lives in order to reach the west. If situation was the opposite and people were running to the east then I would agree that people lived better there.

We have a similar situation here in Croatia (we were part of Yugoslavia that was socialist country for ~45 years), where people talk how communism was/is great and how they think that the way Outin runs Russia is great but they all fled to western Europe countries like Germany/Austria/Ireland instead going to the east. I wonder why .

Interesting how "highest quality of life" means also highest suicide rates

Hm, I don't see many developed countries in the top 20-30 countries by suicide rates.

[Cryptmuster]

Everyone who buys gas and oil in russia pays her a lot of money every day, and these funds will be used to arm and kill civilians. Each country in Europe will choose for itself what is important for it, buy cheap energy resources and understand that this is sponsoring a war, or refuse it and deprive the aggressor of funding. All countries will not refuse, but I believe that humanity will win over economic gain.

[stompix]

Interesting how "highest quality of life" means also highest suicide rates

Hm, I don't see many developed countries in the top 20-30 countries by suicide rates.

The west is bad bruh! Everything here is bad!

Reminds me of that joke
A Russian guy wakes up, stops his Japanese alarm clock, goes to the bathroom shaves with his American razor, drinks a coffee from his Italian coffee maker while watching the news on his Korean tv, grabs his iPhone, jumps in his German car, and while cursing the Russian potholes arrives to work where while smoking some Gauloises he tells his colleagues how everything from the outside is bad. The list was way longer but you get the point. 

We have a similar situation here in Croatia (we were part of Yugoslavia that was socialist country for ~45 years), where people talk how communism was/is great and how they think that the way Outin runs Russia is great but they all fled to western Europe countries like Germany/Austria/Ireland instead going to the east. I wonder why .

Just like that Russian lady the other day swearing at a Ukrainian girl in Sweden, how bad Ukraine is and how Russia is great with her living for 30 years there, the Russian is so proud of their country but everyone tries to get out of there. Communism and socialism are nice on paper when you live in a capitalist country and you don't have to wake at 6 in the morning to stay in queues for milk, once you have a taste of it suddenly you realize capitalism is way better.

You are seriously misinformed.
There is no doubt that Russian military equipment is very weak but it is just as weak as their Western counterparts.

That's why the wanna-be superpower from the middle east is still flying American F4 and F5 built 50 years ago? 

[TheNineClub]

How the fuck is Russia going to replace the European market?
Russia has two options:
1. China - After Saudi Arabia, Russia is the second-largest gas & oil supplier for China.
2. India - Right now Russia accounts for 2% of Indian oil import after Iraq, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Russia might increase its export to those two countries, however, it would still be a lot less than the export to Europe, and India and China won't try to fill that gap. Firstly because they will not all of the sudden cut ties to Saudi Arabia's exports to their countries, and secondly, they just don't need all of that gas. For some of it, yes, but definitely not for all of it, so however we spin it, it will definitely affect Russia.

Europe will also feel those consequences because the implemented changes to policies will not have any effect for a number of years. There will probably be some negotiations with Saudi Arabia but also with Turkmenistan, and Ukraine if the war turns to its favor in the end and Canada and USA. But the best bet is a change and not dependency. That will take some years.

[FairUser]

Both sides are going through a bad time when they hurt each other and still have no common voice to create a peaceful life. Personally, I recently read some news about Europe buying Russian rubles when burning, so I'm also leaning towards the possibility that in the future they will find a good solution to peace, which may prolong the current crisis.