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Author Topic: UEFA Champions League 2023/24 Season  (Read 141738 times)
BALIK
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April 06, 2024, 09:19:59 AM
 #20501

It doesn't look like last weekend's league results had any impact on the odds of an outright UCL winner. Odds for Man City dropped slightly from x2.80 to 2.85 after 0-0 draw against Arsenal at home.
Odds for Bayern and Dortmund remain unchanged despite Borussia surprisingly beating Bayern 0-2 in an away game and are x8.0 and x26.0 respectively. I guess bookies either don't put too much weight on the direct league games between teams still participating in the UCL, or maybe they consider Borussia's win as pure luck.
Odds for Borussia winning the next game in Madrid against Atletico are x4.70 which is starting to look like a potentially good bet.
I think before the first matches of the teams in the Champions League, little will change in terms of odds, a team can play excellently in its championship, but the Champions League is a different kind of tournament, especially now every match can be the last, here in addition to the form of the team, psychology and experience will also decide a lot and team preparation. I assume that teams like Bayern or Atletico have more chances only due to their experience.

Experience is very important on the Champions League platform. It is very difficult to perform well in the knockout rounds of the Champions League if the squad is not experienced enough. It is not possible to do well in the Champions League only by having a strong squad. Definitely need experienced coaches and players.

However, it is very difficult to predict which four teams will qualify for the semi-finals this season. The teams are almost equally strong in every match. PSG and Barcelona are in a similar situation. It is very difficult to predict which team is the favorite in Dortmund vs Atletico match. Also in Bayern Munich vs Arsenal and Real Madrid vs City matches, the teams have a 50-50 chance of winning.

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April 06, 2024, 09:39:29 AM
 #20502

One thing we should know about the Santiago Bernabéu stadium, it's a solid ground for massive winnings for Real Madrid. We have historical meetings for these teams and they're not always doing what we think will happen, instead these teams will become very competitive and ready to take up the tough race, they're willingly to ensure they're having smooth race. Manchester City are English side and we all know what that exactly means for them to feature in the UEFA Champions League. Pep Guardiola will not let his guards down and will always be there to make everything run smoothly for them.
In Santiago Bernabéu stadium, Real Madrid never loss yet in Chmapion League matches from group phase until knock out round, but last match against RB Leipzig on 16 round Madrid had to draw but lead first leg match after winning over 1-0 at Leipzig home. Currently Real Madrid always has come back mentality winning but last season Manchester City success taking one point before won over 4-0 at second legs match.
Real Madrid performance drastically change for this season, they are on confidence performance after managing top standings in La Liga and wil focus 100% for qualifying to semifinal round in champion league. First leg is most important match for Real Madrid and must winning for several goals to make easily for second leg matches.

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April 06, 2024, 10:32:19 AM
 #20503

It doesn't look like last weekend's league results had any impact on the odds of an outright UCL winner. Odds for Man City dropped slightly from x2.80 to 2.85 after 0-0 draw against Arsenal at home.
Odds for Bayern and Dortmund remain unchanged despite Borussia surprisingly beating Bayern 0-2 in an away game and are x8.0 and x26.0 respectively. I guess bookies either don't put too much weight on the direct league games between teams still participating in the UCL, or maybe they consider Borussia's win as pure luck.
Odds for Borussia winning the next game in Madrid against Atletico are x4.70 which is starting to look like a potentially good bet.

I think the game Bayern vs. Dortmund shouldn't have an impact on the odds for the Champions League games as you can't take the Bundesliga games of Bayern too seriously at this point. I am sure that they will play on a different level in the Champions League. In the Bundesliga all hope for a title was lost quite early on due to Leverkusen's remarkable performance and it is probably a motivational issue when a team understands that the result is more or less meaningless.

Atletico Madrid is weird as they are hard to predict. On the one hand they kicked out one of the biggest favorites, Inter Milan, and on the other hand they are playing so erratically in La Liga. Winning only 2 out of the last 5 games in La Liga and they lost some games against teams from the bottom of the standings. But that doesn't mean they are not the favorite against Dortmund as Dortmund is having similar issues. I doubt that Dortmund can beat them in Spain.

The bookmakers are giving Manchester City a slight edge over Real Madrid in the Bernabeu Stadium. I think I disagree here. It should be equal or slightly advantageous for Real Madrid in their home game.

Bayern Munich at odds over 4.0 could be worth a bet. I am sure that they will play a decent game in England. Whether they can win, I don't know, but they are good enough to justify a bet on over 4.0.

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barisbilgili
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April 06, 2024, 10:40:31 AM
 #20504

One thing we should know about the Santiago Bernabéu stadium, it's a solid ground for massive winnings for Real Madrid. We have historical meetings for these teams and they're not always doing what we think will happen, instead these teams will become very competitive and ready to take up the tough race, they're willingly to ensure they're having smooth race. Manchester City are English side and we all know what that exactly means for them to feature in the UEFA Champions League. Pep Guardiola will not let his guards down and will always be there to make everything run smoothly for them.
In Santiago Bernabéu stadium, Real Madrid never loss yet in Chmapion League matches from group phase until knock out round, but last match against RB Leipzig on 16 round Madrid had to draw but lead first leg match after winning over 1-0 at Leipzig home. Currently Real Madrid always has come back mentality winning but last season Manchester City success taking one point before won over 4-0 at second legs match.
Real Madrid performance drastically change for this season, they are on confidence performance after managing top standings in La Liga and wil focus 100% for qualifying to semifinal round in champion league. First leg is most important match for Real Madrid and must winning for several goals to make easily for second leg matches.
There's no need to doubt Real Madrid's mentality, but Manchester City's teams in recent seasons have also been like that so I think this will be a very even match.
What happened in Real Madrid's last match cannot be used as a reference because in my opinion we cannot just look at one match but it must be the whole and for Real Madrid's performance I think it will be quite good.

Playing the first leg at home will of course make Real Madrid more confident and with much greater motivation to make it easier for them in the second leg.
I think Real Madrid's percentage of winning at home is a little bigger, the support of Real Madrid fans will be quite influential for the team.
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April 06, 2024, 10:50:20 AM
 #20505

Everyone can like any team in the Champions League this season, but for Real Madrid everyone also knows that the performance of their players must be able to improve because in this round Real Madrid will face a strong team from England. So it will be quite a difficult match for both of them if they can both improve their squad's performance and apart from that, there will also be a lot of spectators for this match because considering the competitive tension is tougher for each of them.

Real Madrid don't have good memories against Manchester City from the time they last met up.  Sad  At Etihad they got a really huge defeat like 4-0. Considering the way Real Madrid have been playing in the Champions League recently I can't be very positive about them. The performance against Leipzig was just horrible. If Leipzig were a more capable team they would be the side to advance.

Ancelotti should prepare his players strongly for this round. I don't think they would lose home in the first leg but the second leg will be way tougher.

Real Madrid and Manchester city are just two teams that is unpredictable in the champions league quarter finals now, like the two teams are just world class, even when you watch them play you will be happy with how coordinated the players are and you will be happy watching football because of the skills and talents of this players. The both side have a nice squad and wouldn't want to lose to each other but at this stage of the champions league, one among them will be knocked out while the other moves to the next round so it's obvious one of them will give up in this stage and it is difficult to predict who among them will drop for the other to continue.

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April 06, 2024, 11:08:53 AM
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 #20506

The bookmakers are giving Manchester City a slight edge over Real Madrid in the Bernabeu Stadium. I think I disagree here. It should be equal or slightly advantageous for Real Madrid in their home game.
The bookmakers are still being respectful to Manchester City because they are the defending champion and so far in the champions league this season, they have been excellent. In this season, Real Madrid look more likely to win that game because of Manchester City are not as difficult to play this season as they were last season. Real Madrid are much better than last season, It is not going to be an easy game for the defending champions.

Bayern Munich at odds over 4.0 could be worth a bet. I am sure that they will play a decent game in England. Whether they can win, I don't know, but they are good enough to justify a bet on over 4.0.
Bayern may be without Manuel Neuer, Kingsley Coman and  Leroy Sane, all because of injuries. Bayern will miss Sane more because of his speed of moving attacks, which can be important against Arsenal. I watched how Arsenal played against Manchester City in the premiership, I hope they do not play fully defensive against Bayern, they need to attack Bayern and win the game before going to Germany.

https://onefootball.com/en/news/5-bayern-munich-players-at-risk-of-missing-champions-league-clash-with-arsenal-39305557

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April 06, 2024, 12:02:02 PM
 #20507

Everyone can like any team in the Champions League this season, but for Real Madrid everyone also knows that the performance of their players must be able to improve because in this round Real Madrid will face a strong team from England. So it will be quite a difficult match for both of them if they can both improve their squad's performance and apart from that, there will also be a lot of spectators for this match because considering the competitive tension is tougher for each of them.

Real Madrid don't have good memories against Manchester City from the time they last met up.  Sad  At Etihad they got a really huge defeat like 4-0. Considering the way Real Madrid have been playing in the Champions League recently I can't be very positive about them. The performance against Leipzig was just horrible. If Leipzig were a more capable team they would be the side to advance.

Ancelotti should prepare his players strongly for this round. I don't think they would lose home in the first leg but the second leg will be way tougher.
The way Real Madrid players are performing this season I'm not sure they are ready to get the Champions league title this season. The champions league will be tough for Real madrid because the players are not putting efforts in their games. I think because of how Real Madrid are not very strong this season their main concentration is to get laliga title and right now they are leading laliga. From the performance of Real madrid this season it looks as getting the Champions league won't be easy for them.

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April 06, 2024, 12:34:38 PM
 #20508

It doesn't look like last weekend's league results had any impact on the odds of an outright UCL winner. Odds for Man City dropped slightly from x2.80 to 2.85 after 0-0 draw against Arsenal at home.
Odds for Bayern and Dortmund remain unchanged despite Borussia surprisingly beating Bayern 0-2 in an away game and are x8.0 and x26.0 respectively. I guess bookies either don't put too much weight on the direct league games between teams still participating in the UCL, or maybe they consider Borussia's win as pure luck.
Odds for Borussia winning the next game in Madrid against Atletico are x4.70 which is starting to look like a potentially good bet.

Victory over Bayern is not something special and besides, this is a common pattern for Dortmund - they can beat anyone but also lose to anyone. Since bookmakers estimate odds based on an entire season/multiple factors, one or two games has virtually no effect on the estimate.
As for the City quotes, they were initially crooked and I’m surprised that betters have not yet taken advantage of this (judging by how the quotes are slowly changing).

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April 06, 2024, 12:48:43 PM
 #20509

All the matches are worth to bet except PSG vs Barcelona, I see PSG is way stronger than Barcelona. While the rest, the underdogs have a same chance to win, but people underestimate them.

Arsenal vs Bayern Munich, Bayern Munich to win @4.00
Real Madrid vs Manchester City, Real Madrid to win @2.70
Dortmund vs Atletico Madrid, Dormund to win @4.50

The way Real Madrid players are performing this season I'm not sure they are ready to get the Champions league title this season. The champions league will be tough for Real madrid because the players are not putting efforts in their games. I think because of how Real Madrid are not very strong this season their main concentration is to get laliga title and right now they are leading laliga. From the performance of Real madrid this season it looks as getting the Champions league won't be easy for them.
From the beginning to middle seasons, don't forget that Girona was leading and people might think they would become a champion. But Real Madrid proving themselves if they're more deserved to win, with their journey to rank up into the top position, I don't think they're not very strong...

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April 06, 2024, 12:48:58 PM
 #20510

Real Madrid don't have good memories against Manchester City from the time they last met up.  Sad  At Etihad they got a really huge defeat like 4-0. Considering the way Real Madrid have been playing in the Champions League recently I can't be very positive about them. The performance against Leipzig was just horrible. If Leipzig were a more capable team they would be the side to advance.

Ancelotti should prepare his players strongly for this round. I don't think they would lose home in the first leg but the second leg will be way tougher.
The way Real Madrid players are performing this season I'm not sure they are ready to get the Champions league title this season. The champions league will be tough for Real madrid because the players are not putting efforts in their games. I think because of how Real Madrid are not very strong this season their main concentration is to get laliga title and right now they are leading laliga. From the performance of Real madrid this season it looks as getting the Champions league won't be easy for them.

Man City's performance is not as good as last season, but they are still a difficult opponent for Real Madrid and I think it is quite difficult to predict who will qualify for the final round. Real Madrid itself also does not have an impressive performance this season. Several times they lost unexpectedly against small teams that they should have easily beaten, it's just that they are quite lucky, because Barcelona also has inconsistent performance. Meanwhile, Man City apparently has quite a dependency on Kevin De Bryune. So because from the start of the season De Bryune couldn't play due to his injury, therefore Man City couldn't play as well as last season.

 
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April 06, 2024, 12:59:42 PM
 #20511

Victory over Bayern is not something special and besides, this is a common pattern for Dortmund - they can beat anyone but also lose to anyone. Since bookmakers estimate odds based on an entire season/multiple factors, one or two games has virtually no effect on the estimate.
(...)

Sure, but bookies are quite often wrong in setting up the odds, as they rely on the algorithms too much. Personally, I think the latest few games are the best indicators of teams' performances. There's a lot of truth in the saying: "You're only as good as your last performance" after all.
So going back to the odds, let's compare the last 10 games of Atletico and Dortmund (all competitions):
Atletico: 4 wins, 5 losses, 1 draw (4 home games, 6 away games)
Dortmund: 6 wins, 1 loss, 3 draws (4 home games, 6 away games)

So even know the Spanish league is considered to be stronger than the German one, I think the x4.70 odds for Dortmund to win in Madrid are pretty attractive and I'm considering betting a modest amount on them, but could be worth waiting to see how they will do against Stuttgart later today.

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April 06, 2024, 02:00:53 PM
 #20512

It doesn't look like last weekend's league results had any impact on the odds of an outright UCL winner. Odds for Man City dropped slightly from x2.80 to 2.85 after 0-0 draw against Arsenal at home.
Odds for Bayern and Dortmund remain unchanged despite Borussia surprisingly beating Bayern 0-2 in an away game and are x8.0 and x26.0 respectively. I guess bookies either don't put too much weight on the direct league games between teams still participating in the UCL, or maybe they consider Borussia's win as pure luck.
Odds for Borussia winning the next game in Madrid against Atletico are x4.70 which is starting to look like a potentially good bet.
These odds staying the same? Doesnt surprise me at all. Champions League is a different animal - the best of the best. Dortmund beating Bayern, thats great, but its a Bundesliga thing. Bayern, they have a history of showing up on European nights, even when things are shaky at home. So, those odds arent moving for a reason.

Now, Dortmund against Atletico in Madrid... thats where things get interesting. I've seen Atletico all over the place in La Liga, hard to know what they'll bring. But Dortmund at x4.70 odds? Thats... intriguing. Both sides are unpredictable, these Champions League matches often see surprise stars emerge. If you're the type who likes a calculated risk, that bet might be worth a closer look.

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April 06, 2024, 02:14:14 PM
 #20513

Playing the first leg at home will of course make Real Madrid more confident and with much greater motivation to make it easier for them in the second leg.
I think Real Madrid's percentage of winning at home is a little bigger, the support of Real Madrid fans will be quite influential for the team.
That should be the reason why Madrid was able to beat Manchester City. Playing at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in front of all its supporters should be able to make Madrid appear more confident and play optimally to win. I think Ancelotti learned a lot from last season's defeat where Madrid was humiliated by Manchester City, this meeting will be a revenge event for Madrid to embarrass Manchester City at the Santiago Bernabéu Stadium. At least winning with more than two goals will help them progress more safely to the next round.

I still admit that there are still many weaknesses in Manchester City that need to be corrected and it seems that Madrid can rely on Manchester City's weak points or gaps that Madrid might be able to penetrate. I'm sure that if Madrid can win by an aggregate difference of just two goals that will make it safe, for example 3 - 1 or 2 - 0 will make a difficult aggregate for Manchester City, even though I know Guardiola has many surprising tactics and strategies, still relying too much on Haaland will not produce any goals, making Manchester City's attack power look bad. but it's going to be a great game but it looks like both will score

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April 06, 2024, 02:30:28 PM
 #20514

Everyone can like any team in the Champions League this season, but for Real Madrid everyone also knows that the performance of their players must be able to improve because in this round Real Madrid will face a strong team from England. So it will be quite a difficult match for both of them if they can both improve their squad's performance and apart from that, there will also be a lot of spectators for this match because considering the competitive tension is tougher for each of them.

Real Madrid don't have good memories against Manchester City from the time they last met up.  Sad  At Etihad they got a really huge defeat like 4-0. Considering the way Real Madrid have been playing in the Champions League recently I can't be very positive about them. The performance against Leipzig was just horrible. If Leipzig were a more capable team they would be the side to advance.

Ancelotti should prepare his players strongly for this round. I don't think they would lose home in the first leg but the second leg will be way tougher.
The way Real Madrid players are performing this season I'm not sure they are ready to get the Champions league title this season. The champions league will be tough for Real madrid because the players are not putting efforts in their games. I think because of how Real Madrid are not very strong this season their main concentration is to get laliga title and right now they are leading laliga. From the performance of Real madrid this season it looks as getting the Champions league won't be easy for them.
Real Madrid have a strong team,and they have been consistent in their effort this season,they know how to play the champions league,and a test will be before them in the quater final stage of the tournament when they will be playing against the best team in the world,and that team is Mancity.If they aren't doing well,it will show in their performance against City,but I know they know how to play the champions league,I mean,they have lots of experience,so the battle against City will be a firece one,but I'm tipping them to edge it by winning City in a 2:1 result.

 
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April 06, 2024, 02:30:36 PM
 #20515

Snip.

I think before the first matches of the teams in the Champions League, little will change in terms of odds, a team can play excellently in its championship, but the Champions League is a different kind of tournament, especially now every match can be the last, here in addition to the form of the team, psychology and experience will also decide a lot and team preparation. I assume that teams like Bayern or Atletico have more chances only due to their experience.
All teams remaining in the quarter-finals will try to show their quality in order to qualify for the next round. These teams will treat every match played like a Final, they will give their best game to maintain their chances. Experience will help regular teams in the UCL adapt more easily to the atmosphere in this prestigious league, but teams also need cohesion and depth to be able to beat their opponents.

Bayern Munich, which is starting to fall out of the Bundesliga title race, will look to the Champions League as its main focus, but Bayern Munich must not beat Arsenal, who will be its opponents in this competition. Arsenal played well when they managed to hold Manchester City to a draw, this performance became Arsenal's capital when facing Bayern Munich.

Atletico also needs to be wary of the opponents they will face, Dortmund have just managed to beat Bayern Munich in the Bundesliga, who have never won against the king of the Bundesliga. I think there will be many surprises in the quarter-finals because the remaining teams are tough teams in their respective leagues.

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April 06, 2024, 02:41:17 PM
 #20516

Real Madrid don't have good memories against Manchester City from the time they last met up.  Sad  At Etihad they got a really huge defeat like 4-0. Considering the way Real Madrid have been playing in the Champions League recently I can't be very positive about them. The performance against Leipzig was just horrible. If Leipzig were a more capable team they would be the side to advance.

Ancelotti should prepare his players strongly for this round. I don't think they would lose home in the first leg but the second leg will be way tougher.

I am having faith in Manchester City but please don't underestimate Real Madrid power of winning this phase of the Champions League. Your Comparism is just based on the last performance of the last season which we all knew that the club didn't have a good striker, the midfield was weak and defenders couldn't deliver their job, yiu should check 2021 Champions League and how they manage to slip through Manchester City in Semi final.

If we want to use their domestic leagues to contest for who is going to win this match, I will go with Real Madrid but if they are talking about their performance, Manchester City looks good and solid than Real Madrid and the payers look more hungrier than the any team in this league.

R


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April 06, 2024, 03:08:07 PM
 #20517

Real Madrid don't have good memories against Manchester City from the time they last met up.  Sad  At Etihad they got a really huge defeat like 4-0. Considering the way Real Madrid have been playing in the Champions League recently I can't be very positive about them. The performance against Leipzig was just horrible. If Leipzig were a more capable team they would be the side to advance.

Ancelotti should prepare his players strongly for this round. I don't think they would lose home in the first leg but the second leg will be way tougher.

Now the two teams will meet again in the quarter-final match, where perhaps the end of the match in the first leg could be like last season. yeah, as you said, Real Madrid have fond memories at the Etihad Stadium against Manchester City. That's why Don Carlo had to formulate tactics and strategies when his team faced Manchester City at the Santiago Bernabeu. if Ancelotti applies the same pattern, such as 4-3-1-2. I'm pretty sure Pep Guardiola already knows this tactic. The Brazilian duo will play more wide, and Bellingham will play a dual role as midfielder plus center forward. That's why Ancelotti at least needs to update his strategy.

However, in the last two matches, Don Carlo tried to change his pattern and system. Maybe in the quarter-final match in the first leg, Ancelotti will seriously prepare his strategy to win the match, especially with a large aggregate. however, City is City, a strong team against strong teams. referring to the temporary odds option, there is no significant difference. However, City is still slightly superior. I can't wait to watch this match, although my estimate is that City will be able to beat Real Madrid at the Santiago Bernabeu.

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April 06, 2024, 03:22:29 PM
 #20518

I am having faith in Manchester City but please don't underestimate Real Madrid power of winning this phase of the Champions League. Your Comparism is just based on the last performance of the last season which we all knew that the club didn't have a good striker, the midfield was weak and defenders couldn't deliver their job, yiu should check 2021 Champions League and how they manage to slip through Manchester City in Semi final.

If we want to use their domestic leagues to contest for who is going to win this match, I will go with Real Madrid but if they are talking about their performance, Manchester City looks good and solid than Real Madrid and the payers look more hungrier than the any team in this league.
This season everything has changed so what happened last season no longer applies and cannot be used as a reference for what will happen again this season.
Manchester City and Real Madrid are the two top European teams at the moment and these two teams have been favorites since the start of the season to win the CL title this season so I don't think either team is underestimating its opponent.

Everyone's betting choices and favorites are definitely different from each other's point of view and that's only natural, but what is certain is that these two teams have almost the same percentage of being able to advance to the semifinals.

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April 06, 2024, 03:37:26 PM
 #20519

Quote from: Antotena
Quote from: Pulsar77
Real Madrid don't have good memories against Manchester City from the time they last met up.  Sad  At Etihad they got a really huge defeat like 4-0. Considering the way Real Madrid have been playing in the Champions League recently I can't be very positive about them. The performance against Leipzig was just horrible. If Leipzig were a more capable team they would be the side to advance.

Ancelotti should prepare his players strongly for this round. I don't think they would lose home in the first leg but the second leg will be way tougher.

I am having faith in Manchester City but please don't underestimate Real Madrid power of winning this phase of the Champions League. Your Comparism is just based on the last performance of the last season which we all knew that the club didn't have a good striker, the midfield was weak and defenders couldn't deliver their job, yiu should check 2021 Champions League and how they manage to slip through Manchester City in Semi final.

If we want to use their domestic leagues to contest for who is going to win this match, I will go with Real Madrid but if they are talking about their performance, Manchester City looks good and solid than Real Madrid and the payers look more hungrier than the any team in this league.
If you have be following Real Madrid games in this season, you will know that they have squads that will withstand Manchester city in this game to surprise people that they are good in UEFA champions league competition by repeat what happened before in the lock out stage.

For you to know that Real Madrid is doing well in this season, they are toping in the la Liga league table and Manchester city has drow down to 3rd position in the premier league table, for you to know that victory is not far from Real Madrid in this game.

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April 06, 2024, 04:13:58 PM
 #20520

Manchester City are going to Spain with a really improved morale.  Smiley  They did an amazing work against Crystal Palace today. Kevin de Bruyne's performance of 2 goals and 1 assist must have made Guardiola really happy. When he plays solidly the team are likely to win much easier like in this example. His intelligence is really valuable for the team.

Haaland also scored finally but I still have doubts about his performance against Real Madrid in three days. I don't like his performances in big games. Let's see if he will prove me wrong this time. Real Madrid players have an advantage by the way because they played their last game six days ago and they don't have any game until facing Manchester City.  Smiley

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