[edited out]
At least seeing the life cycle of Bitcoin this year, I never felt that investing in Bitcoin would be a loss for any period of time. As the beginning of the year was buoyant, the price of Bitcoin has been buoyant throughout the year.
I am not sure what purpose comes from attempting to measure bitcoin from the beginning of this calendar year. That hardly makes any sense.
We could start from the November 2022 bottom, or if you are trying to focus on more recent events, we could surely see that there was a run-up that began right around October 2023... so measuring bitcoin price performance in the middle of a run up seems like it is going to fail to capture some kind of an actual dynamic that is going on within bitcoin's price that is not tied to the start of the calendar year.
After the halving, many thought the price would go down a lot but it didn't, the price of Bitcoin started to go up a few days after the halving, if currently the price of Bitcoin is going up and going down for some time.
Well the BTC price had already gone up a lot prior to the halvening.. so whether it continued to go up or not seems almost like a non-event.. meaning that realistically, you could not necessarily have high expectations either way, even if some folks might have had high expectations.... sounds like a big so what to me. I would not be engaging in my own bitcoin preparations merely based on expectations of others that may or may not end up playing out.
Might we say that the BTC price reached a high price of $73,794 on March 13, 2024, so then it has largely been bouncing around in the $60k to $70k range in the past 3 months.. or maybe we could suggest that the BTC price broke above $53k in the end up February 2024, so add a couple more weeks to the analysis that BTC prices still have largely been ranging in the $60k to $70k arena for that whole time which is 3.5 months and so why might we be wanting to make further assessments for why or whether or what direction that BTC prices might be going when it seems to largely be at the top of its range and close to its ATH for the whole last 3.5 months, and 3.5 months is not even a very long time in the whole scheme of things in terms of consolidations.. and whether we get a break up or down from here is still to be determined, while at the same time, it still seems quite clear that an overwhelming majority of the world's population (maybe somewhere in the ballpark of 99%) still does not have any or enough bitcoin... but what can we tell those lowcoiner/no coiner people.. since they still seem to be failing/refusing to buy any bitcoin, yet those of us who know about bitcoin still can be ongoingly buying it in the event that we are still building our bitcoin stash size.
Anyone who wants to invest in the current time, I think it is a good time, if you invest from here slowly and continue to invest for a long period of time, the bitcoin price will reach your desired goal. You can try and can hold it.
I am not going to disagree with you about this part of your post, since that seems to be the punchline message, especially since there may well be expectations that the BTC price would go up, but it still has been stuck in a range, and surely at the same time, there are no guarantees that the BTC price is going to continue to go up from here, so anyone investing into bitcoin needs to figure out how much s/he wants to invest into bitcoin, and surely there are advantages to those of us who have been buying and/or holding bitcoin for a while, but that still does not change the fact that if there are a lot of low coiners and no coiners out there, then the ONLY real way for them to prepare for BTC prices to go up is to actually have some bitcoin, but yeah, it may well take some of those folks quite a long time to get their hands onto some bitcoin and to figure out how to hold it in both private ways (and maybe even holding some of their coins with third parties, though many of us know that to be less preferable).
Another thing is what is the investment timeline into bitcoin? 4-10 years or longer? Hopefully folks are not just planning to play the upcoming wave of BTC prices that is going to potentially be up and down in the next less than 4 year period of time, but surely everyone has to figure out their own ways of accumulating enough bitcoin, including considering if they have a large enough BTC stash in order to start to feel comfortable engaging in some kind of a practice that is anything other than accumulation, and since around 99% of the world's population still does not have any or enough BTC, I prefer to presume that an overwhelming majority of persons still do not have enough BTC.. yet surely it is not easy to measure number of persons who have accumulated BTC, whether they are holding their BTC with third parties (which truly does not 100% assure their ownership fo the coins) or if they are engaging in some kind of a self-custody, which surely is the preferred way to hold BTC, even though newbie bitcoiners might not be able to jump straight into self-custody without first spending some time with bitcoin and learning some of those self-custody matters, yet I personally do not proclaim that learning and/or practicing self-custody is a prerequisite to getting bitcoin exposure..
and a person may well start out getting exposure to bitcoin prices and holding BTC through 3rd parties as they are learning about self-custody and figuring out various ways to make sure that they end up holding a decent majority of their coins through self-custody.. perhaps even 75% or more of their coins should ultimately be held through self-custody, even though while they are newbies they might start out by using third-parties to hold their coins.. to the extent that they acquire their coins through third-parties. There are some newbies to bitcoin who may well get to know various bitcoiners, and may well be able to buy bitcoin directly from already existing bitcoiners or to offer goods and/or services to acquire bitcoin, so we cannot necessarily lock ourselves into one model that any of the bitcoiner newbies might start to build up their bitcoin holdings and end up holding their BTC in various kinds of ways that may or may not end up being one way, including that from jurisdiction to jurisdiction some of the availabilities of getting coins can vary.. and also some of the availabilities of getting in and out of coins can change from jurisdiction to jurisdiction with the passage of time too.. so bitcoin remains a learning process for all of us.
[edited out]
What are we worried about? Volatility and privacy are part of the beauty of Bitcoin, if a newbie investors is getting his or her self worked up for the volatility of Bitcoin, some other veterans or more informed Bitcoin investors will be very much confident because he knows that on the longer run, his investment will generate a very good revenue for him or her, so to me the volatility of Bitcoin is a blessing in disguise.
So as long as you are a long term holder, you don't have to be worried about the volatility of Bitcoin, because it will
definitely bounce back to your favour, only if you are a long term holder, so we should be happy for it volatility, not getting worried over it.
Why do you feel such a need to proclaim that bitcoin will "definitely" bounce back. That kind of absolute language is quite problematic, even though surely many of us recognize and appreciate bitcoin as a solid investment, it still is not "guaranteed" to bounce back or even to "go up forever Laura".. even though again bitcoin is a solid investment and from time to time, it does not hurt to exaggerate the upwards trajectory of bitcoin, but still we have to be careful in regards to recognizing the reality that guarantee does not exist.
Lastly, another set's of people that gets worried about volatility are the traders, so are you a trader? If not then you should be confident on your Bitcoin investment on the longer run, because it's actually the real deal.
This response seems to be a bit mixed up, especially since traders love volatility and tend to be able to profit way more from volatility rather than from non-volatile assets/currencies. So, generally speaking, volatility is a friend to traders, yet still traders can still end up getting into trouble with any asset (including something like bitcoin) if they might be giving too much weight to up and down factors without adequately accounting for bitcoins likelihood to continue to go up forever.. so there still could be ways that traders play bitcon and are able to profit from its volatility so long as they do not end up getting caught up on the wrong side of some of bitcoin's unexpected upward price movements and their having had little to no BTC price exposure during such upward price movements that may well end up not correcting back down and they would have had been way better off to have had been in bitcoin rather than out of bitcoin and sometimes during such upward price movements the traders might have had ended up losing all of his/her previous gains because s/he had failed to adequately hedge himself/herself.
We know that generally very large portions of traders end up losing, and we also know that historically bitcoin has a very good asset to hold onto rather than attempting to trade, so surely the traders who end up profiting in trading bitcoin may well have ended up getting lucky or maybe they ended up having certain kinds of skills (and/or insights or insider information) that ended up differentiating them from an overwhelming number of traders that have ended up doing worse by attempting to trade bitcoin rather than just ongoingly persistently and consistently accumulating it.
[edited out]
I don't seems to understand how volatility became the beauty of bitcoin both in terms of investment and for adoption into businesses and daily lives of people. On the contrary, I feel the volatile nature of bitcoin is a major stumbling block confronting bitcoin and its acceptability by businesses. I have seen many people willing to accept bitcoin in their businesses but the major challenge they always reference is that bitcoin is too volatile and that what was agreed now might not hold before payment are completed because of the volatile nature of bitcoin.
There is nothing wrong with people (who accept bitcoin in the business context, for example) to consider how much bitcoin that they would like to hold, based on expectations of its ongoing volatility.
Sometimes they might fail to appreciate the value of bitcoin based on its volatility and they may well want something that is pegged to the dollar, so that is their choice - which they might end up under-allocating to bitcoin based on such negative perceptions about its volatility that they have not figured out adequate ways to mitigate though their allocation amounts.
In terms of long term invest, we might say it does not matter but it can actually affect entry point even though when the intention is for long-term holding.
Just because people might accept bitcoin for goods and services does not mean that they have to hold all of the value in bitcoin, so for example someone who has an income in fiat may need to buy bitcoin, but someone who receives bitcoin for goods an services may well have to sell some of his/her bitcoin in order to maintain a balance in his/her investment level into bitcoin, and part of that may well depend upon if his/her bills are in fiat or in bitcoin, and surely we could presume that the majority of people are going to have their bills in fiat.. so they still have to figure out their balances whether they receive some or all of their income in bitcoin.. .. and they still may have to consider whether they are going to save/invest 5% to 25% in bitcoin, and surely a starting presumption might be that it might not be realistic for people to save/invest more than 10% of their income in bitcoin, so individuals have to tailor their amounts to their circumstances, since some folks can afford to be more aggressive than others depending on the level of their discretionary income, whether that discretionary income comes from bitcoin sources or from fiat sources, similar kinds of analysis needs to be done in terms of how aggressive they are comfortable in being in terms of their bitcoin accumulation and/or holding of bitcoin versus other places that they might hold their value...including their considerations of their emergency fund, reserves and/or monthly cash floats.
Someone investing in bitcoin through buying the dip might experience price jump when executing the order and this might be in price differential of over $2,000 considering how volatile bitcoin can be. Therefore, we can say that volatility account for the uniqueness of bitcoin and never the beauty.
The beauty comes from the attempt to create systems to deal with bitcoin's most likely ongoing and inevitable volatility that is not easy to really predict direction and/or how long the BTC price might stay within various price ranges.
Lastly, another set's of people that gets worried about volatility are the traders, so are you a trader? If not then you should be confident on your Bitcoin investment on the longer run, because it's actually the real deal.
Indeed traders are those who complain so much above the volatility of bitcoin because of they stop loss getting eaten up always. But since the discussion is not trading focused, I will say no point emphasizing that. But like I said before, the volatility of bitcoin is still a thing to be worried about even though such worries are less for long-term investors.
Yep. It seems that trading is a bit of a specialized topic, and we should not necessarily consider that it is a good thing to get into trading or even the need to talk about trading in various bitcoin threads. Yeah, people do trade bitcoin and some of them are able to profit and/or make money from such trading, yet it surely is not obvious that an overwhelming majjority of folks would be better off to either not trade at all or to limit the amount of their trading of bitcoin, since generally speaking trading takes time to learn and to employ various tools and methods that even experienced traders have difficulties employing in profitable ways, which seems a bit strange why anyone would be wanting to overly trade bitcoin when it has already proven to be amongst the best (if not the best) of assets to hold for the long term, and even if the future of bitcoin's prices is not guaranteed, there surely is some value in considering holding bitcoin and limiting the trading of it.. even for those who are curious about trading, maybe they could consider some value in terms of limiting their trading of bitcoin to less than 10% of the size of their bitcoin holdings and be careful not to overdo it.. even though for many (if not most people), trading can end up devolving into a kind of gambling rather than a real good way to spend time, money and energies..
[edited out]
Ok I understand your point very well, but I have a question for you, how would Bitcoin be different from the fiat if it has no volatility? How would it be different if it's as static as the fiat, and is a prey to inflation?
This is a pretty dumb question. It is like you are asking for us to imagine bitcoin to be something that it is not rather than something that it is.
The fact of the matter is that we should be attempting to appreciate bitcoin for what it is rather than trying to imagine bitcoin to be something that it is not, and if you think about the matter, bitcoin happens to both be the most sound of monies ever invented/discovered and at the same time, there happens to be a bit of a battle (or might we say war) in regards to bitcoin's role in society. So if we are both experiencing the greatest transfer of wealth known to man kind and there is also various kinds of disinformation about bitcoin, then how the hell is bitcoin going to remain stable in those kinds of circumstances?
Perhaps once bitcoin gets into the ballpark of 10x to 100x of the market cap of gold, it might become more stable, but even then, we have to consider the facts as they are and attempt to assess what is going on once bitcoin gets to those kinds of prices (market cap levels)... so in other words, try to consider and accept bitcoin for what it is rather than engaging in fantasylandia imaginations about what you wished it were to be when your wishes do not even seem to be accounting for what bitcoin actually is.
Or most of us the Bitcoin enthusiastic that are clamouring to one another that we should hold on tight for a very long period of time, so as to be able to build a generational wealth, how are we going to achieve that if Bitcoin is not volatile?
Fair enough.. Bitcoin volatility ends up being to the upside mostly, but surely it is not guaranteed to be to the upside in the period of time that you are hoping it to be to the upside, and it is also not guaranteed that you are going to manage your bitcoin accumulation and/or your maintenance of your BTC in such a way that you are going to be able to either benefit from its likely ongoing appreciation and/or to be able to pass such wealth onto your heirs.
Bro, we are definitely going to end up in a huge lose for holding too long, you know why? Because by then inflation will have a serious effect on it that we are definitely going to regret holding for too long, so my brother, it's because of it volatility we are holding it, because with the high potential of Bitcoin, we stand a chance of making significant gain, if we can hold a bit longer.
Yes... .the dollar and other various fiats are ongoingly debasing against bitcoin, so hopefully many of us can recognize and appreciate such ongoing debasement of fiats that are contributing to the demise of various fiat systems, even though surely we need to also survive in our holdings of fiat and bitcoin and maybe even other ways of holding value in terms of making sure that we do not overly allocate to bitcoin in such a way that we are no longer able to hold it and we do not want to be forced to sell any of our BTC at a time that is not completely of our own choosing.
