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Author Topic: Goomboo's Journal  (Read 250718 times)
jojo69
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January 31, 2012, 06:59:30 PM
 #301

Crossover again Smiley Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.
Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC  Tongue

nice   Cheesy

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
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Goomboo
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February 01, 2012, 02:13:46 AM
 #302

Crossover again Smiley Taking small hits but as you said this is expected. Currently trading with my whole balance tho.
Isn't good risk management but not really any point of splitting up 5BTC  Tongue

Lol nice :p

Goomboo
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February 02, 2012, 12:04:57 AM
 #303

Those who took the last signal should be sitting on a 9% unrealized profit right now.
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February 02, 2012, 02:03:56 AM
 #304

Those who took the last signal should be sitting on a 9% unrealized profit right now.

99% after selling part of my position to put my base price down to around $3  Grin

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February 03, 2012, 04:24:53 PM
 #305

Those who took the last signal should be sitting on a 9% unrealized profit right now.

Goomboo, just to verify on this signal...what was the chart time/interval for this?

Had you gone from 1 hour to daily with the 5-day/10-day?

Any advantage to using the 2/6/12 hour intervals with the EMAs?

Thanks!
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February 04, 2012, 06:52:15 PM
 #306

Those who took the last signal should be sitting on a 9% unrealized profit right now.

Goomboo, just to verify on this signal...what was the chart time/interval for this?

Had you gone from 1 hour to daily with the 5-day/10-day?

Any advantage to using the 2/6/12 hour intervals with the EMAs?

Thanks!


That signal was based on the hourly charts with the 10/21 moving averages.  I believe this is what most people are trading who are following this thread.

I've been trading the daily 10 / 21 moving averages for longer term trades - the recent run-up in prices caused me to exit my position (I exit with large price shock against my trade) at a 2% gain.


The lower the timeframe = more signals, more commissions, more whipsaw action, potential to catch the smaller moves

The higher the timeframe = less signals, less commissions, greater likelihood of catching a major move

Basically you need to choose a timeframe for trading based upon your desired activity - I prefer to trade bitcoin once a month so these days so I am on daily charts.  For the people who would like a signal every other day, the hourly charts fits perfectly.
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February 04, 2012, 07:21:56 PM
 #307

Those who took the last signal should be sitting on a 9% unrealized profit right now.

Goomboo, just to verify on this signal...what was the chart time/interval for this?

Had you gone from 1 hour to daily with the 5-day/10-day?

Any advantage to using the 2/6/12 hour intervals with the EMAs?

Thanks!


That signal was based on the hourly charts with the 10/21 moving averages.  I believe this is what most people are trading who are following this thread.

I've been trading the daily 10 / 21 moving averages for longer term trades - the recent run-up in prices caused me to exit my position (I exit with large price shock against my trade) at a 2% gain.


The lower the timeframe = more signals, more commissions, more whipsaw action, potential to catch the smaller moves

The higher the timeframe = less signals, less commissions, greater likelihood of catching a major move

Basically you need to choose a timeframe for trading based upon your desired activity - I prefer to trade bitcoin once a month so these days so I am on daily charts.  For the people who would like a signal every other day, the hourly charts fits perfectly.

Thanks Goomboo

I have steered clear of BTC daytrading, too frustrating for me we BTC.

Want to ride the longer trends, so may go 12 hr or daily myself.
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February 04, 2012, 07:45:59 PM
 #308


Thanks Goomboo

I have steered clear of BTC daytrading, too frustrating for me we BTC.

Want to ride the longer trends, so may go 12 hr or daily myself.

Sure thing...day trading BTC can really be brutal with the 1-2% spread + 1% round-trip commission.  Basically this requires price to move 3% for you to break even on a trade.  Trade 1-2 times a day and if the market doesn't go in your favor, your account will be down 20-30% in a week simply from the costs of transacting (assuming no added slippage).

Mt. Gox would do very well to institute liquidity rebates.  For those who are unfamiliar, in the stock market you are typically paid a small amount of money if you trade using limit orders.  It's typically about $.003 / share.  This can seriously add up - a trader who trades 100,000 shares per day gets a paycheck of around $6,600 per month, simply for trading using limit orders.

Exchanges benefit from liquidity and they still earn the commission from the trader who entered at market to take the liquidity off the book.  With greater liquidity comes larger customers and more players to the market.  If anyone from Mt. Gox reads this, I'd love to hear your thoughts!

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=pricelisttrading2
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February 04, 2012, 07:48:21 PM
 #309


Thanks Goomboo

I have steered clear of BTC daytrading, too frustrating for me we BTC.

Want to ride the longer trends, so may go 12 hr or daily myself.

Sure thing...day trading BTC can really be brutal with the 1-2% spread + 1% round-trip commission.  Basically this requires price to move 3% for you to break even on a trade.  Trade 1-2 times a day and if the market doesn't go in your favor, your account will be down 20-30% in a week simply from the costs of transacting (assuming no added slippage).

Mt. Gox would do very well to institute liquidity rebates.  For those who are unfamiliar, in the stock market you are typically paid a small amount of money if you trade using limit orders.  It's typically about $.003 / share.  This can seriously add up - a trader who trades 100,000 shares per day gets a paycheck of around $6,600 per month, simply for trading using limit orders.

Exchanges benefit from liquidity and they still earn the commission from the trader who entered at market to take the liquidity off the book.  With greater liquidity comes larger customers and more players to the market.  If anyone from Mt. Gox reads this, I'd love to hear your thoughts!

http://www.nasdaqtrader.com/trader.aspx?id=pricelisttrading2

cool
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February 04, 2012, 07:54:44 PM
 #310

cool

Yeah, it's pretty sweet for professional scalpers - I've seen some people make $30,000 + per month simply from liquidity rebates.  Keep in mind though that this is in a market in which the typical professional trader doesn't connect directly to the exchange but rather goes through a broker-dealer who adds a commission to the trading.  The exchanges normally charge a small commission (few tenths of a cent) and the broker/clearing house charges an additional commission.

Since in BTC we have direct market access to the exchange (DMA), we have some serious potential to change the exchange-dealer-customer paradigm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_market_access
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February 04, 2012, 08:02:35 PM
 #311

cool

Yeah, it's pretty sweet for professional scalpers - I've seen some people make $30,000 + per month simply from liquidity rebates.  Keep in mind though that this is in a market in which the typical professional trader doesn't connect directly to the exchange but rather goes through a broker-dealer who adds a commission to the trading.  The exchanges normally charge a small commission (few tenths of a cent) and the broker/clearing house charges an additional commission.

Since in BTC we have direct market access to the exchange (DMA), we have some serious potential to change the exchange-dealer-customer paradigm.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Direct_market_access

I think Mt. Gox would do very well to look into liquidity rebates with a percentage set just below their lowest commission bracket.
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February 05, 2012, 08:33:54 PM
 #312

For those on the H1 charts, it looks like you should have been able to lock in a 5% gain on the long side and are now sitting on an unrealized profit of another 5%.
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February 05, 2012, 08:42:25 PM
 #313

Great posts Goomboo. I've not read it all but will do later. Out of interest, what is your incentive in sharing all of this? Surely by sharing this information and by others acting on it (which i see from your followers they are), your strategys will become less effective?

Maybe i'm missing something... would it serve to provide more momentum from people copying you???

Honestly, it's pretty self-motivated.  It helps me stay disciplined to my trading strategy in the BTC market which ultimately helps me be a more profitable trader.  I don't give much weight to the idea of momentum - if anyone were seriously reading this thread, they wouldn't blindly trust me but would rather systematically test a trading concept that they can own and follow.  I'm less tempted to toy around and lose money in an undisciplined manner when I have several people watching me make decisions and risking their capital as well.

Additionally, openly discussing risk management, trading systems, and how to logically enter and exit the markets has improved my trading in other markets.  I'm human just like most of the other traders on here - I make mistakes, I struggle with following a plan, discipline, etc.


Here's my thought on lessening the effectiveness of my strategy:
-I don't believe in this
-I'd wager that there were probably 10-15 traders who took my signal right at the beginning and instantly lost money
-After this loss, probably 5 traders took the signal and lost again
-After this loss, probably 3 traders took it and lost again
-And this recent trade, maybe 1-2 of those traders took the signal and now are sitting on a trade which should have them sitting at a fresh unrealized profit

You see?  People just can't stick with the plan - it makes so much sense on paper but when capital is actually at risk, discipline falters and seat-of-the-pants decisions are made.

Here's one a great quote from the Turtle Trading system in one of my earlier posts:




For those who were excited about the system and then puked out after a string of losses: I quote this for emphasis.
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February 06, 2012, 03:32:29 AM
 #314

Sticking to the topic of moving average crossovers, what about the 10,21 weekly moving average crossovers I'm seeing with simple and weighted moving averages?  At what point does that factor into your trading?  You abandoned the hourly in favor of the daily.  Is it just a matter of trading frequency preference?  Is there ever a reason to consider the weekly moving average, or does following the smaller term trends keep you on the correct side of the longer term trends when they move big?  Bitcoin is a very volatile market, and it can slip a few dimes or even dollars before you can change your position.

It was entirely a matter of trading preference.  Also, my resolve was strengthened for the following reasons:
-Less trades = Less commissions / less slippage / greater chance of catching a "major" trend
-Less noise = Less churning of capital

Thanks for leading the herd Wink... A nice safe way to bounce around until the next whale comes along to make a splash.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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February 07, 2012, 12:06:47 AM
 #315


Thanks for leading the herd Wink... A nice safe way to bounce around until the next whale comes along to make a splash.


Best of luck in your trading!  I strongly believe that by sticking with a well-researched trading system, you can do very well.
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February 07, 2012, 12:52:09 AM
 #316

Goomboo: where'd you get your wonderful username? Smiley

(BFL)^2 < 0
Goomboo
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February 07, 2012, 03:48:42 AM
 #317

Goomboo: where'd you get your wonderful username? Smiley

With a great username comes great responsibility - as you should know.
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February 07, 2012, 04:40:43 AM
 #318

Goomboo: where'd you get your wonderful username? Smiley

With a great username comes great responsibility - as you should know.

I'm reminded of the blogger Mogambo Guru (Richard Daughty) on dailyreckoning whenever I see your alias:

http://dailyreckoning.com/author/mogamboguru/

Though, in my case, the human predilection for pattern matching sometimes goes to extremes  Grin

If anyone's not heard of him, he's generally hilarious (HGH*).

* Inside joke for those who've read him...
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February 07, 2012, 06:39:30 AM
 #319

Oh man, I can vouch for that...

Mogambo Guru is a riot, highly recommended

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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February 07, 2012, 08:19:12 AM
 #320

Mogambo Guru is a riot, highly recommended

+1. I learned more from him on money and banksters than from the university.

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