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Author Topic: Goomboo's Journal  (Read 250856 times)
Goomboo
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May 30, 2013, 12:08:56 AM
 #681

Hi Goomboo,
Budhist says hello to Christian Smiley. Three past evenings I was reading this Journal. Every comment from every user and it was quite a ride I have to tell.

Red and green arrows where to buy/sell, EMA, beautiful colourful tables, predictions about BTC when it was much weaker and vision of it's crashing. Also few haters, many appreciations and kindness and calm of Gomboo.

I have to say thank you a lot for a great education. I am looking forward for some new knowledge:)

Glad you have learned from the thread - best of luck and hello to you too!
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May 31, 2013, 02:07:15 AM
 #682

This thread helped me prototyping a very raw trading bot (for Bitstamp).
Here's its behaviour so far, while simulating 1 BTC trading over past 90 days.
It does miss a lot of the spiking, but over 100% gain isn't too bad, with few loss (4) vs gain (11) orders.

90 Days Bitstamp 1BTC trading Report (SIMULATION)

Now trying to improve it.

What're your thresholds if you don't mind me asking? Also you should keep in mind this is through a very volatile period, as activity settles out you may see smaller and smaller returns.
xx78213
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May 31, 2013, 04:24:02 AM
 #683

Is this typical? When I first used it and didn't have my account linked it had a nice display of the history there. Now it's blank. It's also been stuck on 0.17 for quite some time now.

Thanks!

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May 31, 2013, 05:55:43 AM
 #684

xx78213, I was using a similar bot (Tobli's fork) and it had the same problem. Frozen. I just went to the source and updated it again and it all works now. Perhaps you could try updating your bot?
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May 31, 2013, 08:51:02 AM
 #685

Yeah, I'm running Tobli's bot, v0.2.2.3.  It seems to work well, although that 4k dump last night was quick enough that the bot only sold near the bottom before the market bounced back up.
Goomboo
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June 02, 2013, 07:33:20 PM
 #686

For those of you trading the more active timeframes (Hourly / 4-Hour bars), this recent sell-off should not have been a surprise.

The disciplined trader maintains focus during times of volatility to profit from the herd.
Frozenlock
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June 02, 2013, 07:39:10 PM
 #687

I don't like this example.

Yes it should have been a surprise (if following the EMAs): the selloff is mostly what caused the crossing.
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June 02, 2013, 08:13:24 PM
 #688

For those of you trading the more active timeframes (Hourly / 4-Hour bars), this recent sell-off should not have been a surprise.

The disciplined trader maintains focus during times of volatility to profit from the herd.

If anything, the recent selloff suggests the use of a trading bot isn't such a good idea after all. I was lucky enough to turn off my bot the night before and wake up to the large drop. Manually doing things is probably the best way to go from here.
Goomboo
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June 02, 2013, 08:22:58 PM
 #689

I don't like this example.

Yes it should have been a surprise (if following the EMAs): the selloff is mostly what caused the crossing.

Not on my chart - the signal was generated 4 hours prior to the sell-off.
Goomboo
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June 02, 2013, 08:26:23 PM
 #690

If anything, the recent selloff suggests the use of a trading bot isn't such a good idea after all. I was lucky enough to turn off my bot the night before and wake up to the large drop. Manually doing things is probably the best way to go from here.

I have nothing to say about the trading bots - I provided no input for any of them.  I'm speaking strictly about trading the trend, as measured by the system taught in this thread.  Followers of the system should have had their assets protected from a 7% drop in value over the last 18 hours.
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June 02, 2013, 08:35:37 PM
 #691

Goomboo is correct. Kinda..



Great thread by the way. I think this is a good example and sorry, if it was asked before.

MA cross trading is great, if you have a clear trend, but depending on the timeframe, you had multiple crossings in the last days. How do you handle sideway movements?

Picture from Bitstamp.

Frozenlock
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June 02, 2013, 08:46:05 PM
 #692

Goomboo is correct. Kinda..

Yeah, kinda.

While an immediate sell on crossover would have protected you from a 7% drop, it would have cost you a fortune in fees and slippage in the last few days:



I do appreciate the knowledge Goomboo is transmitting, but I think this is not a good example.

Also, the EMAs did not recross. The price could go back up before the next crossing.
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June 02, 2013, 09:09:18 PM
 #693

Goomboo is correct. Kinda..

Yeah, kinda.

While an immediate sell on crossover would have protected you from a 7% drop, it would have cost you a fortune in fees and slippage in the last few days:



I do appreciate the knowledge Goomboo is transmitting, but I think this is not a good example.

Also, the EMAs did not recross. The price could go back up before the next crossing.

Are you using hourly candles in that chart?

Frozenlock
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June 02, 2013, 09:10:21 PM
 #694

Yes.
Goomboo
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June 03, 2013, 12:40:39 AM
 #695


Yeah, kinda.

While an immediate sell on crossover would have protected you from a 7% drop, it would have cost you a fortune in fees and slippage in the last few days:

I do appreciate the knowledge Goomboo is transmitting, but I think this is not a good example.

Also, the EMAs did not recross. The price could go back up before the next crossing.

Welcome to BTC trading - this is precisely why I do not call BTC a "professional" trading market.  I'd wager there are fewer than 5 individuals actually living from BTC trading profits.  The spread (while it has decreased over the past few months), commissions, and slippage for large traders is just killer.

I do appreciate the knowledge Goomboo is transmitting, but I think this is not a good example.

Also, the EMAs did not recross. The price could go back up before the next crossing.

I'm not here to display cherry-picked charts which woo participants.  It's a great example because it's the nasty truth of trading - there are rarely any good examples.  And ironically, most of the good examples are the trades that the majority of participants weren't in until the end because they threw in the towel after a string of losses.

In fact, I'd be willing to bet that the majority of people reading this thread will not capture even 60% of the profits provided by the original system in the next "great example" due simply to a lack of emotional courage.

PS I'm not sure exactly what you're looking at, but here's where you should have sold using the hourly system from the opening post of this thread:

Goomboo
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June 03, 2013, 12:55:56 AM
 #696

Goomboo is correct. Kinda..

For systematic trading, there is no "kinda".  You are either following the signal, or your are relying on your gut/intuition.

MA cross trading is great, if you have a clear trend, but depending on the timeframe, you had multiple crossings in the last days. How do you handle sideway movements?

You handle it by making a point to aggressively manage risk.  As shown through backtest, trend following methods win 30-40% of the time.  This means that the majority of the time, you will be thrashed by market noise.  It's your job as a trader to make sure that the trashing you will receive damages your account balance as little as possible.  How risk management looks varies from trader to trader but a general guideline is to decrease your trading size during periods of loss.

Some people also try and establish criteria to filter out the noise such as "only trade the crossover after price makes a new N-day high or low".  In my experience, these methods typically do not hold up as well as the original system in backtest.

PS, I see you're relying on trendlines for support.  Just a little advice a successful day-trader once conveyed: trendlines are better drawn with a Crayon than a pencil and they tend to be broken on the 4th touch.  So basically, by the time most people have drawn trendlines and prepare their trade, the market blows up in their face.

It's pretty much a universal truth of trading - if everyone's doing it, everyone's going to lose money.
notme
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June 03, 2013, 03:25:59 AM
 #697

I don't like this example.

Yes it should have been a surprise (if following the EMAs): the selloff is mostly what caused the crossing.

Even if you sold at the bottom of the second hourly candle after the dip, you could still have a decent profit.  Best case, after the first candle was solidified, you could have sold at 130 in the next hour.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
Frozenlock
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June 03, 2013, 06:01:23 AM
 #698

PS I'm not sure exactly what you're looking at, but here's where you should have sold using the hourly system from the opening post of this thread:



Yup, but this is assuming an immediate sell on crossover (without waiting for any additional % for confirmation).
This means that while you might have saved ~7% on this drop, you would have done at least 9 other transactions in the graph you are showing, completely falling behind that 7%.
(Which you did not mention when presenting the glorious 7%.)

And what if the drop would have occurred 4 hours before it did? The first candle, which is still the bulk of the drop, could have easily occurred while the crossover was telling "buy".


In summary, my beef with this example:
  • You single out the 7% out of context to show a win, while the last days (weeks?) are clearly losing.
    (Which is kinda odd, since you took the time, at multiple occasion, to show the importance of long term results.)
  • You took an example that had nothing to do with trend following, which is the sole point of your EMAs selling/buying technique.
    Any further drop could be associated with hourly trend following and that would make an excellent example.

Again, I'm not disputing the technique, but the example chosen.
Goomboo
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June 03, 2013, 11:34:13 PM
 #699

Yup, but this is assuming an immediate sell on crossover (without waiting for any additional % for confirmation).
This means that while you might have saved ~7% on this drop, you would have done at least 9 other transactions in the graph you are showing, completely falling behind that 7%.
(Which you did not mention when presenting the glorious 7%.)

And what if the drop would have occurred 4 hours before it did? The first candle, which is still the bulk of the drop, could have easily occurred while the crossover was telling "buy".

Where in this thread do you see me advocating a percentage threshold for participation?


And what if the drop would have occurred 4 hours before it did? The first candle, which is still the bulk of the drop, could have easily occurred while the crossover was telling "buy".

Who cares?  Do you think this point of contention will matter one bit in 24 hours?  A week?  In the long run, the method tells the same story.


Re-read my post.  I think you're reading a little too much into what was said.

For those of you trading the more active timeframes (Hourly / 4-Hour bars), this recent sell-off should not have been a surprise.

The disciplined trader maintains focus during times of volatility to profit from the herd.
Frozenlock
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June 04, 2013, 12:14:48 AM
 #700

Where in this thread do you see me advocating a percentage threshold for participation?

Nowhere, which is why if one is to accept the 7% "protection" (now officially 4.7% - without the fees), he must also have endured the previous losses.
Of course, you never said it was a 7% of pure profit, but singling out this trade was, IMO, a little disingenuous.

An average of the last 50 or 100 trades would be more representative.

And what if the drop would have occurred 4 hours before it did? The first candle, which is still the bulk of the drop, could have easily occurred while the crossover was telling "buy".

Who cares?  Do you think this point of contention will matter one bit in 24 hours?  A week?  In the long run, the method tells the same story.

Which is why I'm saying it's not a good example.
It was a trade that could look good in your trading record, but it had nothing to do with trend following, which is the only goal of your EMAs crossing technique.

Again, I'm not arguing against the technique, but rather the representation you gave by using the last drop.
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