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Author Topic: Goomboo's Journal  (Read 250667 times)
Marcus Antonius
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August 16, 2013, 11:50:56 AM
 #941

OK, now I see the problem. I had no threshold and I didn't have enough initial candles. Now I get your result. Amazing how dramatically the threshold affects results.
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August 16, 2013, 06:27:17 PM
 #942

Absolutely. I've run some tests and a threshold of .25 is the most profitable. It surprised me that the default setting was the best one for once.

EDIT: That's only under my trading conditions actually. You'd have to test for your specific EMA and time period.

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August 16, 2013, 07:49:12 PM
 #943

if I read this well, this model does not outperform buy and hold: only +643%

our newsletter has fared better :-) (had to throw this in :-))


If your newsletter is so great, why do you need to advertize everywhere in every topics ?

Stop spamming and make your newsletter public during 2 weeks, people will choose on real results.
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August 17, 2013, 02:14:19 AM
 #944

Absolutely. I've run some tests and a threshold of .25 is the most profitable. It surprised me that the default setting was the best one for once.

EDIT: That's only under my trading conditions actually. You'd have to test for your specific EMA and time period.

Do thresholds really work in general? I'm not sure I'm convinced they prevent fake-outs.
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August 17, 2013, 05:46:42 AM
 #945

if I read this well, this model does not outperform buy and hold: only +643%

our newsletter has fared better :-) (had to throw this in :-))


If your newsletter is so great, why do you need to advertize everywhere in every topics ?

Stop spamming and make your newsletter public during 2 weeks, people will choose on real results.

Not to mention bitching and moaning in threads for other newsletters.  S3052 has been acting sleazy lately.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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August 17, 2013, 06:34:53 AM
 #946

Absolutely. I've run some tests and a threshold of .25 is the most profitable. It surprised me that the default setting was the best one for once.

EDIT: That's only under my trading conditions actually. You'd have to test for your specific EMA and time period.

Do thresholds really work in general? I'm not sure I'm convinced they prevent fake-outs.
Mostly on hourly charts. Daily rarely crosses over so the impact is much less pronounced. What EMAs are you trading? I can find you the most profitable thresholds.

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August 17, 2013, 06:55:31 AM
 #947

if I read this well, this model does not outperform buy and hold: only +643%

our newsletter has fared better :-) (had to throw this in :-))


If your newsletter is so great, why do you need to advertize everywhere in every topics ?

Stop spamming and make your newsletter public during 2 weeks, people will choose on real results.

Not to mention bitching and moaning in threads for other newsletters.  S3052 has been acting sleazy lately.

Sorry for that.  That was not my intent.
But as you can see in this specific thread, there are lots if people complaining about the bumps. Another one just minutes ago .
I stay out of this as of now. It is an issue for the moderators and I am focusing on analysis and forecasts.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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notme
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August 17, 2013, 07:18:03 AM
 #948

if I read this well, this model does not outperform buy and hold: only +643%

our newsletter has fared better :-) (had to throw this in :-))


If your newsletter is so great, why do you need to advertize everywhere in every topics ?

Stop spamming and make your newsletter public during 2 weeks, people will choose on real results.

Not to mention bitching and moaning in threads for other newsletters.  S3052 has been acting sleazy lately.

Sorry for that.  That was not my intent.
But as you can see in this specific thread, there are lots if people complaining about the bumps. Another one just minutes ago .
I stay out of this as of now. It is an issue for the moderators and I am focusing on analysis and forecasts.

There is about one complaint a month except when you stir up a shitstorm.  Then the peanut gallery chimes in because you and Cyperdoc's back and forth keeps the thread at the top.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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August 17, 2013, 07:29:44 AM
 #949

ok

This is my last comment about cypherdocs's practices in this thread. As of then, I will tackle this differently and not drag "innocent" readers into it.

My only point is that it is not required to bump threads with the "excuse" that subscribers need this alert. They get the analysis for his services by email and this is very instant. By the way, bitcoinbullbear does the same and none of of our subscribers have ever complained about that we need to bump threads to alert them. I am just asking for fairness, because the thread bumping creates a lot of awareness and if this is not stopped, we might need to do the same, but being customer focused and loving this forum, I really do not want to do it. Perhaps the moderators can add a pure notification section and move his thread there, because obviously he admitted that it is for this purpose only. His thread does not belong into the speculation thread. Do you see my point at least a little bit?

Goomboo: sorry for this. I like your thread and it is great to keep discussing those moving average crossed which we also follow many of them in our analysis.




>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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notme
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August 17, 2013, 07:50:18 AM
 #950

ok

This is my last comment about cypherdocs's practices in this thread. As of then, I will tackle this differently and not drag "innocent" readers into it.

My only point is that it is not required to bump threads with the "excuse" that subscribers need this alert. They get the analysis for his services by email and this is very instant. By the way, bitcoinbullbear does the same and none of of our subscribers have ever complained about that we need to bump threads to alert them. I am just asking for fairness, because the thread bumping creates a lot of awareness and if this is not stopped, we might need to do the same, but being customer focused and loving this forum, I really do not want to do it. Perhaps the moderators can add a pure notification section and move his thread there, because obviously he admitted that it is for this purpose only. His thread does not belong into the speculation thread. Do you see my point at least a little bit?

Goomboo: sorry for this. I like your thread and it is great to keep discussing those moving average crossed which we also follow many of them in our analysis.


I understand your arguments, but I don't agree at all that he does anything different than what you do.

Let me take a look at the last page of your thread:

weekly newsletter is out to subscribers

bitcoin :-)

We have two updates for you
1. The special summer promotion for the bitcoin, stock market, precious metal, etc. forecasts is still open until August 19 (3 days left).
Use code: bbbsummer for six weeks free with a 3 month (+) subscription on https://digitalcurrencyresearch.com/
Also, we will soon add a new market as a surprise.

2. The poll is reset if you want to express your opinion about bitcoin prices direction.

have a great BitDay


Looks like notifications and service updates to me.  I also don't agree that email is infallible and especially not instant.  Messages get hung up all the time.  Also, some people have setups that download mail every X minutes and when an update is released they can trigger a manual download to fetch it right away.... if they know it has been sent out.

However, I do agree this isn't the place for this discussion, but you had to go and do this:
if I read this well, this model does not outperform buy and hold: only +643%

our newsletter has fared better :-) (had to throw this in :-))


You have done this type of advertising in several threads lately, and have the balls to simultaneously start a fight with Cypherdoc in his own thread because you think him bumping it once a day (you already go the moderators to limit him to that) "creates a lot of awareness".  You are a hypocrite.

I could however get on board with a separate notifications section where your thread, his thread, and others could go.  If his thread doesn't belong here, neither does yours.

Sorry Goomboo, et al.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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S3052
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August 17, 2013, 07:55:08 AM
 #951

thanks, notme.

I agree that is was over-reacting by starting to do similar things that I criticize. I got too emotional and this is always wrong. It's not an excuse but there are people fully / partially living from the analysis and this is why it is business and not a hobby.

We keep our thread focused on content, and if someone wants to do a notification thread it should go somewhere else as you suggested.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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notme
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August 17, 2013, 07:58:55 AM
 #952

thanks, notme.

I agree that is was over-reacting by starting to do similar things that I criticize. I got too emotional and this is always wrong. It's not an excuse but there are people fully / partially living from the analysis and this is why it is business and not a hobby.

We keep our thread focused on content, and if someone wants to do a notification thread it should go somewhere else as you suggested.

The funny part is any perceived "competition" between you and Cypherdoc is in your head.  If you could see his newsletter, you would know that he only covers bitcoin on very large time scales, whereas you cover shorter term trading opportunities.  You have different target audiences.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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S3052
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August 17, 2013, 08:01:39 AM
 #953


 If you could see his newsletter, you would know that he only covers bitcoin on very large time scales, whereas you cover shorter term trading opportunities.  You have different target audiences.

We are covering all time scales from the longest term to the shortest term.

I think the next steps are clear and I leave the pitch to Goomboo.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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notme
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August 17, 2013, 08:06:11 AM
 #954


 If you could see his newsletter, you would know that he only covers bitcoin on very large time scales, whereas you cover shorter term trading opportunities.  You have different target audiences.

We are covering all time scales from the longest term to the shortest term.

I think the next steps are clear and I leave the pitch to Goomboo.

Then he must have changed things in the last few months because when I was a subscriber up until March he strongly advised against trading anything shorter than the weekly cycle in Bitcoin.

Anyway, to the topic, potential bearish cross upcoming on the 4 hour for 10/21, potential bullish cross upcoming on the 30 minute.  Other timeframes are mid trend.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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S3052
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August 17, 2013, 08:13:05 AM
 #955

sorry if this was not clear
bitcoinbullbear covers all time frames. i did not mean his.

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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August 17, 2013, 08:17:04 AM
 #956


Anyway, to the topic, potential bearish cross upcoming on the 4 hour for 10/21, potential bullish cross upcoming on the 30 minute.  Other timeframes are mid trend.

yep: back to the topic

I wonder how the results of the 11,34 cross over would look like
No cross over yet on the 4h for this one

>15years analysis experience

Always do your own due diligence & consult your financial advisor. Never invest unless you can afford to lose your entire investment.

http://twitter.com/BitcoinAnalyst

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Marcus Antonius
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August 17, 2013, 01:22:03 PM
 #957

Mostly on hourly charts. Daily rarely crosses over so the impact is much less pronounced. What EMAs are you trading? I can find you the most profitable thresholds.

15/24 on daily.
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August 17, 2013, 06:41:23 PM
 #958

Your ideal threshold is -.3, and .09. I'd recommend testing this. Backtest 0 threshold, .25 threshold, and these numbers and compare your results. These numbers are actually higher than 12/29 at any threshold, making it the most profitable strategy I've come across. I'm sure there are others where fine tuning the threshold would yield higher results, but finding them is difficult.

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August 17, 2013, 07:07:01 PM
 #959

Goomboo, I have a question for you. Hourly trading is only inferior to daily because of fees, so trading on a BTCe with a .2 fee may yield better results. The problem is, you cannot backtest this. Would using MtGox candles with a .2 fee be a good indicator of potential profits on BTCe? Or is the arbitrage between the two enough to nullify the data?

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sukiho
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August 17, 2013, 07:23:04 PM
 #960

Goomboo, I have a question for you. Hourly trading is only inferior to daily because of fees, so trading on a BTCe with a .2 fee may yield better results. The problem is, you cannot backtest this. Would using MtGox candles with a .2 fee be a good indicator of potential profits on BTCe? Or is the arbitrage between the two enough to nullify the data?
I havent any prove of this but my observation is that the movements are greater on mtgox then btce so even with the higher fees the profits are still higher. would be interesting to backtest it tho
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