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Author Topic: Goomboo's Journal  (Read 250914 times)
Oldminer
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January 27, 2012, 08:49:12 AM
 #261

Yea gotta say Goomboo your trading formulae is very simplistic but hell so far it works Smiley

If you like my post please feel free to give me some positive rep https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=trust;u=18639
Tip me BTC: 1FBmoYijXVizfYk25CpiN8Eds9J6YiRDaX
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January 27, 2012, 01:54:56 PM
 #262

Did you produce that chart showing historical success of your plan?

If so, how?

Yes,

It is using NinjaTrader - an excellent automated and discretionary trading platform.

Basically you program a strategy (or use their easy-coding utility) and backtest the strategy on historical data.

If you're interested in testing your ideas and automated trading, I highly recommend you learn about the platform.

www.ninjatrader.com

Feel free to ask me any questions about it if you're interested.


Im trying to sign up but it says I need a broker... Can I not just try this out? I dont have a broker.  

Also less important / off topic: why do people need brokers?  Why cant they just connect to the exchange and make trades like we all do to Gox?

I tried to download but it says I need Windows 7 or whatever version they are at now.  I had to use a Windows computer for a presentation and had no idea what I was looking at.  I think I will stick with R for backtesting.  It is open-source and is a powerful statistical tool.  I don't have to worry about faulty statistical methods in R.  There is even a package that allows trading through Interactive Brokers.

Ill check this out too Thanks

EDIT WTF is that...

R is a programming language that is used by most statisticians today.  Even if you don't know how to program you can use the tools available to analyze data.  There are some versions with GUI but I prefer working in the global environment.

Im a bit embarrassed. I consider my self a programmer... I guess its all the math and statistical equations that look scary.
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January 27, 2012, 05:05:39 PM
 #263

Yea gotta say Goomboo your trading formulae is very simplistic but hell so far it works Smiley

For me, it works to the extent that I can remove myself emotionally from the market while still
having the long term goal of profiting from it.

I like the idea of not over-thinking the technical analysis, using simpler longer-trend indicators,
and testing them out. It's a valid approach.
Goomboo
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January 28, 2012, 12:13:37 AM
 #264

Did you produce that chart showing historical success of your plan?

If so, how?

Yes,

It is using NinjaTrader - an excellent automated and discretionary trading platform.

Basically you program a strategy (or use their easy-coding utility) and backtest the strategy on historical data.

If you're interested in testing your ideas and automated trading, I highly recommend you learn about the platform.

www.ninjatrader.com

Feel free to ask me any questions about it if you're interested.


Im trying to sign up but it says I need a broker... Can I not just try this out? I dont have a broker.  

Also less important / off topic: why do people need brokers?  Why cant they just connect to the exchange and make trades like we all do to Gox?

I tried to download but it says I need Windows 7 or whatever version they are at now.  I had to use a Windows computer for a presentation and had no idea what I was looking at.  I think I will stick with R for backtesting.  It is open-source and is a powerful statistical tool.  I don't have to worry about faulty statistical methods in R.  There is even a package that allows trading through Interactive Brokers.

Ill check this out too Thanks

EDIT WTF is that...

R is a programming language that is used by most statisticians today.  Even if you don't know how to program you can use the tools available to analyze data.  There are some versions with GUI but I prefer working in the global environment.


NinjaTrader is great for non-programmers as well.  You can build an entire strategy from point-and-click as well as perform backtesting - basically a platform made for traders by traders.

R sounds cool too - lots of tools available for people to do analysis.

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January 28, 2012, 12:24:50 AM
 #265

Too bad NinjaTrader is Windows only.  I'd like to try it out.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
12jh3odyAAaR2XedPKZNCR4X4sebuotQzN
Goomboo
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January 28, 2012, 02:40:34 AM
 #266

Awesome.  PM sent.

How do you typically gather new data?

Well, this is the first time I've ever actually imported BTC into NinjaTrader - since I'm on daily candles and a normal signal lasts about a month, I'd probably just repeat the steps and re-download etc. when a month has past or so.
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January 28, 2012, 10:30:32 AM
 #267

EMA(10) > EMA(21)  Tongue



mine was the little buy that pushed the price from $5.40 to $5.45 (821 BTC took just under 11 seconds) & I'd like to say a big thank you to whoever sailed in right afterwards with the 23k spike it to $5.75

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January 28, 2012, 10:44:17 AM
 #268


Yeah, that's an interesting one, shortly after someone went 20K BTC in leading to the spike.

Thing is.....There's more than the 10/21 EMA crossover here. Aroon UP/Down also crossed over and the MACD also hit the positive line around the same time so who ever played the 20K might have been working on a different strategy.

The price is still outside the Bollinger band to the positive, so with this many positive indicators it will be an interesting weekend for the short term.

My bets: Stop Loss 5.45 - Arbitrary based on my entry point. 6 will likely be tested.
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January 28, 2012, 10:48:16 AM
 #269

just before this someone put up a 20k or so bid wall around $5.30 I think it was, right after my little buy it disappeared & the spike volume buy happened, same person I guess



  Tongue

Node40.com is a leader in DASH hosting, dedicated exclusively to fully managed masternode hosting. Professional, organized, and responsive. I have many dozens of nodes with them.    
BTC = $c²     BTC = 1otohotohMoQoxHuxLBveQiZcV3Pji3Tc      DASH, Digital Cash = www.dash.org   
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January 28, 2012, 04:15:21 PM
 #270

just before this someone put up a 20k or so bid wall around $5.30 I think it was, right after my little buy it disappeared & the spike volume buy happened, same person I guess



  Tongue

Thank god for the crossover alarm, twas in the middle of the night here, MST.
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January 28, 2012, 04:22:01 PM
 #271

Too bad NinjaTrader is Windows only.  I'd like to try it out.

Yeah, that's lame :/
Goomboo
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January 28, 2012, 04:31:54 PM
 #272


Yeah, that's an interesting one, shortly after someone went 20K BTC in leading to the spike.

Thing is.....There's more than the 10/21 EMA crossover here. Aroon UP/Down also crossed over and the MACD also hit the positive line around the same time so who ever played the 20K might have been working on a different strategy.

The price is still outside the Bollinger band to the positive, so with this many positive indicators it will be an interesting weekend for the short term.

My bets: Stop Loss 5.45 - Arbitrary based on my entry point. 6 will likely be tested.

Yeah, indicators often tell the same story.  After all they mostly share the same purpose - trend following or overbought / oversold. 

I'm wary of looking at too many indicators, personally.  An author of an excellent book made a good point when he talked about indicators.  He basically said that if you have 5 indicators, each with a 30% chance of calling the trend, and you rely equally on all of them, you have a less than 1% chance of actually calling a move.

If anyone is interested in some graduate level system design, this book is it:
 
Trading Systems that Work
http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Systems-That-Work-Evaluating/dp/007135980X
Goomboo
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January 28, 2012, 04:44:43 PM
 #273

Yeah, indicators often tell the same story.  After all they mostly share the same purpose - trend following or overbought / oversold. 

I'm wary of looking at too many indicators, personally.  An author of an excellent book made a good point when he talked about indicators.  He basically said that if you have 5 indicators, each with a 30% chance of calling the trend, and you rely equally on all of them, you have a less than 1% chance of actually calling a move.

If anyone is interested in some graduate level system design, this book is it:
 
Trading Systems that Work
http://www.amazon.com/Trading-Systems-That-Work-Evaluating/dp/007135980X


Hmm, this is odd - I was searching for a study he once did on random entries and I came across a section of the book on Google...is this legal?  Can you get a whole book on Google these days?  If you can, I strongly suggest purchasing the book - supporting the author is where it's at.

http://books.google.com/books?id=dTmr94EhEoUC&pg=PA187&lpg=PA187&dq=thomas+stridsman+random+entries&source=bl&ots=bwcHqGL-h8&sig=iKT7QHIhaxAoHVmkXJT04PFvm18&hl=en&sa=X&ei=zCQkT9Qd84-wAqebqYwC&ved=0CCAQ6AEwAA#v=onepage&q&f=false
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January 28, 2012, 04:45:38 PM
 #274

Sometimes whole books are on google, other times huge previews.
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January 28, 2012, 04:48:39 PM
 #275


Yeah, indicators often tell the same story.  After all they mostly share the same purpose - trend following or overbought / oversold. 

I'm wary of looking at too many indicators, personally.  An author of an excellent book made a good point when he talked about indicators.  He basically said that if you have 5 indicators, each with a 30% chance of calling the trend, and you rely equally on all of them, you have a less than 1% chance of actually calling a move.

I'm a trend follower, in this mornings case the extra indicators were added confidence but wouldn't necessarily dictated my action. Thanks for this thread by the way, it's good to have an extremely experienced person around to recommend the right books. I only wish I had the discipline to follow your approach and back test my strategy which I haven't even defined yet. But then again, that's the beauty of bitcoin, with only .65% commission at Gox, I have thousands of trades experience which I wouldn't have anywhere else along with the fact I can jump in and out. Were I paying 10$ a trade, along with account fee's I suspect I would be far more strict in my approach.


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January 28, 2012, 04:54:05 PM
 #276

Can you get a whole book on Google these days? 

yes, that depends on the publisher and the country where you are. e.g. i see qutte a few pages over here, but a lot of them are just missing from the "preview".
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January 28, 2012, 07:15:42 PM
 #277

Goomboo do you have any suggestion on using the EMA10/EMA21 as described in this thread after it allready cross up/down to predict longer rally periods ie. I bought 50BTC as the EMA10 cross upwards over EMA21 however I then notice the line keeps trending upwards but now I want to buy more BTC to take advantage of longer rally however I dont know if at the time I buy more BTC the EMA10 will cross down over EMA21. Do you know of any strategy to make use of longer rally cross so I can add more BTC to my long(or short in case of downtrend) even after the cross happened.

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January 28, 2012, 08:10:25 PM
 #278

there is nothing magical about the 10-21 cross

generally shorter averages will get you in or out earlier, but will have more zig zag trades

with longer averages you will miss more of the beginning of a trend, but there is less noise so more of your trades will be keepers

so for the above poster, maybe look for a 15-30 cross or something to confirm for adding to your position

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January 28, 2012, 08:15:34 PM
 #279

there is nothing magical about the 10-21 cross

generally shorter averages will get you in or out earlier, but will have more zig zag trades

with longer averages you will miss more of the beginning of a trend, but there is less noise so more of your trades will be keepers

so for the above poster, maybe look for a 15-30 cross or something to confirm for adding to your position

I agree there is nothing magical however its a measure and I figured to add more to my position there could be something to look at without doing it blindly. I will have a look at your suggested 15-30 cross, thanks.

...In the land of the stale, the man with one share is king... >> Clipse

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January 28, 2012, 08:55:23 PM
 #280

i have a basic and probably dumb question. this exponential EMA average, how are the weights? how is this decay function defined and does it also have parameters additionally to the time-window?
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