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Author Topic: Goomboo's Journal  (Read 250964 times)
ineededausername
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February 17, 2012, 02:49:51 PM
 #401

Told ya.

I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done:

When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell.  When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy.

Bad things!
You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold.

Even on the hourly data set?  

Backtesting using the large spike during the summer is pointless.  You could randomly flip a coin to decide to buy or sell and would have won.

Absolutely! That is why I said $17 after the high.

The fast EMA was below the slow EMA 90% of the time during the summer burst. Sure, there would have been a few opportunities, but I think the losses would have far outweighed any profits you would have seen. Think about false cross-overs!

This is the daily (since I can't set it for hourly that far back). But, you can still see that you would have been holding a lot, and very little profit taking



You would have been short for the rise from $.50 to $32.
You would have also been long from the middle of August through the end of October.

No, you'd be long from $0.50 to $15 ish, short from $15 to $2.5, then long again from $2.5 to $6 for a total profit of 132x (>10000%)...

(BFL)^2 < 0
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February 17, 2012, 03:08:08 PM
 #402


No, you'd be long from $0.50 to $15 ish, short from $15 to $2.5, then long again from $2.5 to $6 for a total profit of 132x (>10000%)...


RyNinDaCleM is correct in the context they are discussing, inau is correct if you do it right, but obviously didn't read.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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February 17, 2012, 03:32:54 PM
 #403

Told ya.

I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done:

When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell.  When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy.

The system is good as it is. BUT if I were to trade using it, I'd include some criteria for exceptions - to not make a trade on certain conditions, where other indicators tell that there will be no reversal. That was clearly the case for the last crossover.
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February 17, 2012, 03:39:51 PM
 #404

But this system is meant to be simple. One indicator. One condition.

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February 17, 2012, 03:50:45 PM
 #405

I am finding that this "system" is much better at choosing entry points than exit points.  Anyone else come to a similar conclusion?  Any ideas for a good exit indicator?
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February 17, 2012, 04:11:42 PM
 #406

I am finding that this "system" is much better at choosing entry points than exit points.  Anyone else come to a similar conclusion?  Any ideas for a good exit indicator?

Exactly my thoughts. Choosing exit point is always hard, but if you are looking for something simple, you could for example use profit cap - exit when you get more than 10% for example.
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February 17, 2012, 06:11:00 PM
 #407

But this system is meant to be simple. One indicator. One condition.

Simple is good for automation...

But I would not devote more than a fraction of my portfolio to it.

I wrote mql4 expert advisor based on this strategy and it brings profit. Tested it on Euro/USD pair on data from january. Making trades with fixed lot size (0.5) brings $11767.24 profit. I just modified a bit EMA values to 9/19 cause it gave me best results in january.  Grin Time period 15 min.

I can paste the code here if anyone interested. Below report from the test.

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February 17, 2012, 10:05:34 PM
 #408

Told ya.

I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done:

When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell.  When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy.

The system is good as it is. BUT if I were to trade using it, I'd include some criteria for exceptions - to not make a trade on certain conditions, where other indicators tell that there will be no reversal. That was clearly the case for the last crossover.

Also, using something only like an EMA crossover will give many false positives, especially in a non-trending market.  That is why if I do use a moving average for my core trading system I will use some other tool that can spot divergences in non-trending markets.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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February 18, 2012, 02:03:13 AM
 #409


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February 18, 2012, 02:22:03 AM
 #410



Turtle! Turtle! Turtle!

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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February 18, 2012, 02:43:24 PM
 #411

Hourly traders - you should have been whipsawed a bit - lost 2 trades in a row for:

-8%
-1%

This shouldn't have been a surprise though - we knew through our testing that at best you will win only 40% of your trades.

You should now be short and sitting on a 4% unrealized profit.
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February 18, 2012, 03:15:17 PM
 #412

Hm... I wonder why Otoh isn't pasting more charts screenshots here  Roll Eyes
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February 18, 2012, 03:40:44 PM
 #413

lol, having a life - it's the W/E after all dood, bbl  Grin

& Sunday even less charts, whichever way they happen to be moving, as I'm entertaining until EU evening time  Wink

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February 18, 2012, 09:04:48 PM
 #414

wow, I've only just read the first 5-10 pages and the last couple pages and just, wow.

Thank you for this Goomboo, I will need to read the rest and do my homework before I consider myself a "disciple of Goomboo" but to my initial glance, this seems solid, quantifiable and sound.

*note I'm a miner primarily, but now that I've built a solid base, I am considering gambling (trading) with the leftovers... ((only been selling half my production, until now,, maybe Wink

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February 18, 2012, 09:17:46 PM
 #415

wow, I've only just read the first 5-10 pages and the last couple pages and just, wow.

Thank you for this Goomboo, I will need to read the rest and do my homework before I consider myself a "disciple of Goomboo" but to my initial glance, this seems solid, quantifiable and sound.

*note I'm a miner primarily, but now that I've built a solid base, I am considering gambling (trading) with the leftovers... ((only been selling half my production, until now,, maybe Wink

Thank you for the kind words,

It's been my sincere effort in this thread to try and give people a fighting chance of survival in the financial markets.  I wish you the best and I truly hope that you do the necessary homework to protect your hard-earned money.
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February 23, 2012, 10:23:01 AM
 #416

Love to get this tread back in action. Been using this system and been reading up on potential other systems.

Been thinking of using the second exit of bollinger bands and the RSI to confirm a oversold/overbought market to exit my position earlier.
And maybe figuring out a way to combine this with the 21/10 crossover. Just some toughs...

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February 23, 2012, 10:30:22 AM
 #417


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February 23, 2012, 05:17:55 PM
 #418

Otoh: What's the point of posting bare chart without any commentary here? Everyone can go to bitcoincharts.com and see it for himself.
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February 23, 2012, 05:21:51 PM
 #419

OK, I'll stop unless I've a comment to add, just thought that it would be convenient for people from time to time to see some up to date ones here

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February 23, 2012, 06:02:08 PM
 #420

Love to get this tread back in action. Been using this system and been reading up on potential other systems.

Been thinking of using the second exit of bollinger bands and the RSI to confirm a oversold/overbought market to exit my position earlier.
And maybe figuring out a way to combine this with the 21/10 crossover. Just some toughs...

good luck...that is sort of the holy grail

Obviously if you could enter and exit earlier you would capture a lot more of the move, the danger lies in reintroducing guesswork and emotion to the decision making process. 

This is not some pseudoeconomic post-modern Libertarian cult, it's an un-led, crowd-sourced mega startup organized around mutual self-interest where problems, whether of the theoretical or purely practical variety, are treated as temporary and, ultimately, solvable.
Censorship of e-gold was easy. Censorship of Bitcoin will be… entertaining.
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