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Author Topic: Goomboo's Journal  (Read 250627 times)
Vandroiy
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February 15, 2012, 06:32:02 PM
 #381

Hourly traders should still be short and sitting on a 26% unrealized profit.

lol

It should have been bulls vs bears, but then the turtles came and ate the playground. Om nom nom. Grin

Not that I actually joined the turtles. I'm a spider, or maybe a chameleon. I'm not mad though, it's totally fun to watch turtles eating sheep.
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Otoh
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February 15, 2012, 07:38:49 PM
 #382

having made about 30% on a single move & that at 2.5:1 or 5:1 = 75% or 150% then rather than being a pig headed slave to any system I take the chips off the table or at least in the 5:1 scenario I pocket my original stake & play high or low maybe at even greater leverage with what is now free money

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February 15, 2012, 08:28:40 PM
 #383

indeed, in life too, every time I've been up 100% or more, especially if it's over a short time period, or made a substantial amount of money from a large investment moving even a relatively small amount in my favor and I didn't cash it out & take a breather then I've always regretted it & sometimes by letting it ride or doubling it up have blown the lot & more, it took many hard lessons to train myself that 100% or a good pay off is sweet & more though tempting is usually just greedy foolishness

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February 15, 2012, 10:23:52 PM
 #384

yep hourly, it's on the cusp atm, neck & neck



That is a rather predictable effect of a bunch o' traders adopting this strategy...

Yep.. they called me crazy when I said that before, but I've seen it several times since and I'm convinced.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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February 16, 2012, 01:08:52 AM
 #385

This trade is unusually successful - according to my chart (Bitcoin Charts), you should still be short and sitting on an unrealized profit of around 20%.

Regardless, stay disciplined and wait for the crossover before exiting.
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February 16, 2012, 02:27:25 AM
 #386

yep hourly, it's on the cusp atm, neck & neck



That is a rather predictable effect of a bunch o' traders adopting this strategy...

Yep.. they called me crazy when I said that before, but I've seen it several times since and I'm convinced.

When enough people start trading this way I will use the EMA9/20 crossover.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
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February 16, 2012, 04:50:27 AM
 #387

yep hourly, it's on the cusp atm, neck & neck



That is a rather predictable effect of a bunch o' traders adopting this strategy...

Yep.. they called me crazy when I said that before, but I've seen it several times since and I'm convinced.

When enough people start trading this way I will use the EMA9/20 crossover.

One step ahead...

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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proudhon
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February 17, 2012, 01:48:07 AM
 #388



Wake up all you little Goomboos.

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February 17, 2012, 02:13:57 AM
 #389



Wake up all you little Goomboos.



The Couch Strategy is saying BUY BUY BUY! Grin

(BFL)^2 < 0
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February 17, 2012, 03:43:12 AM
 #390

The hourly short trade should now be closed for a profit of around 20% x leverage employed.

You should now be long.
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February 17, 2012, 09:44:30 AM
 #391

You should now be long.

and burned badly by doing this...
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February 17, 2012, 09:53:34 AM
 #392

You should now be long.

and burned badly by doing this...

Yep... Not as badly as I was last night by a false long crossover (i'm using different numbers), so... count yourself lucky and get out fast and maybe wait a candle past the cross.

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Otoh
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February 17, 2012, 10:12:15 AM
 #393




Node40.com is a leader in DASH hosting, dedicated exclusively to fully managed masternode hosting. Professional, organized, and responsive. I have many dozens of nodes with them.    
BTC = $c²     BTC = 1otohotohMoQoxHuxLBveQiZcV3Pji3Tc      DASH, Digital Cash = www.dash.org   
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February 17, 2012, 11:39:59 AM
 #394

oh noes:
http://www.bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg2zigHourlyztgSzbgBza1gEMAzm1g10za2gEMAzm2g21zi1gMACDzi2gRSIzi3gMFIzi4gMomentumzv

macd crossover, looks like a false long

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M4v3R
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February 17, 2012, 12:02:25 PM
 #395

Told ya.
stochastic
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February 17, 2012, 01:20:23 PM
 #396

Told ya.

I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done:

When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell.  When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
RyNinDaCleM
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February 17, 2012, 01:44:39 PM
 #397

Told ya.

I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done:

When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell.  When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy.

Bad things!
You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold.

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February 17, 2012, 01:47:41 PM
 #398

Told ya.

I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done:

When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell.  When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy.

Bad things!
You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold.

buy high, sell low  Grin

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stochastic
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February 17, 2012, 01:49:48 PM
 #399

Told ya.

I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done:

When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell.  When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy.

Bad things!
You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold.

Even on the hourly data set?  

Backtesting using the large spike during the summer is pointless.  You could randomly flip a coin to decide to buy or sell and would have won.

Introducing constraints to the economy only serves to limit what can be economical.
RyNinDaCleM
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February 17, 2012, 02:22:03 PM
 #400

Told ya.

I wonder what the backtesting would show if the opposite decision making was done:

When the EMA10 crosses over the EMA21, sell.  When the EMA21 crosses under the EMA10, buy.

Bad things!
You would have been holding from $17, down to $2, and then sold.

Even on the hourly data set?  

Backtesting using the large spike during the summer is pointless.  You could randomly flip a coin to decide to buy or sell and would have won.

Absolutely! That is why I said $17 after the high.

The fast EMA was below the slow EMA 90% of the time during the summer burst. Sure, there would have been a few opportunities, but I think the losses would have far outweighed any profits you would have seen. Think about false cross-overs!

This is the daily (since I can't set it for hourly that far back). But, you can still see that you would have been holding a lot, and very little profit taking



You would have been short for the rise from $.50 to $32.
You would have also been long from the middle of August through the end of October.

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