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Author Topic: Goomboo's Journal  (Read 250696 times)
Goomboo
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July 21, 2013, 08:01:20 PM
 #821

Daily Goomboos: Prepare your fiat!

Steady.... steady.... don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.

Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!

Retreat!


Quick, clean, and relatively painless losses: the hallmark of successful trading.
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MusX
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July 22, 2013, 10:03:57 AM
 #822

Goomboo - what periods do you use? daily, hourly?
I can prepare some small simulation of Rate of Change in time for your strategy, was is done before (somewhere in 42 pages in the topic)?

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July 22, 2013, 12:33:22 PM
 #823

Goomboo - what periods do you use? daily, hourly?
I can prepare some small simulation of Rate of Change in time for your strategy, was is done before (somewhere in 42 pages in the topic)?
There is some work going on in this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=222696.msg2774267#msg2774267

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July 22, 2013, 07:23:33 PM
 #824

Thank you Goomboo for that Detailed post on ForEx..    I GREATLY value your info and advise..


Yea the EMA is testing me..  LOL..  I think I am now at 4 or 5 losses in a row since I started doing EMA with a trading bot last week...  BUT they have all been VERY small Losses..  I am in it for the Long haul..  At some point...  Soon or 3 months from now, who knows, the market will get out of its sideways rut its in and then will be exciting the see EMA do its thing..


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July 22, 2013, 10:57:59 PM
 #825

Goomboo - what periods do you use? daily, hourly?

I trade the daily timeframe in BTC.
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July 22, 2013, 11:04:56 PM
 #826

Goomboo - what periods do you use? daily, hourly?

I trade the daily timeframe in BTC.

So you didn't catch the recent jump from 65-100 right?
Goomboo
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July 23, 2013, 12:05:18 AM
 #827

So you didn't catch the recent jump from 65-100 right?

That is correct.  I'd wager the hourly traders did pretty well during that bounce.
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July 24, 2013, 01:26:23 AM
 #828

Daily Goomboos: Prepare your fiat!

Steady.... steady.... don't shoot until you see the whites of their eyes.

Candle closed!  EMA10 > EMA21!  Fire! Fire! Fire!

Retreat!

Charge!

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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July 24, 2013, 05:07:15 PM
 #829

Quote
I have a small account in the Bitcoin market, which I hope to grow through trading!  If anyone makes money trading and they take a signal based on my recommendation, please consider donating a small amount of the profits!

And I've gone back and changed my initial post due to a few PMs, etc. trying to send donations.  Please no donations, if you earn a profit from this thread, please give a portion to some charitable cause and not to me.  The reason for this is that I am a trader, not a system seller.  When I wrote that last year, I envisioned this thread turning out differently than it did.  The only payment I take as a trader is a percentage of profits I actually earn on accounts under management.

Thanks all!

Goomboo

Hi Goomboo,

Thank you for creating such an insightful thread.  I believe that I echo many others in this thread when I say that your Journal is by far one of the most enlightening finds in BitcoinTalk.  I plan on giving all of your recommended books a once over so that I can have a better understanding of things before I go delving into a new arena.

I have one question, you stated above that "when I wrote that last year (I have a small account in the Bitcoin market, which I hope to grow through trading!  If anyone makes money trading and they take a signal based on my recommendation, please consider donating a small amount of the profits!), I envisioned this thread turning out differently than it did."

What did you mean by that? How did this thread turn out differently than you had anticipated?

Thanks again.
A humble Goomboo follower.
Goomboo
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July 24, 2013, 10:29:47 PM
 #830

Thank you for creating such an insightful thread.  I believe that I echo many others in this thread when I say that your Journal is by far one of the most enlightening finds in BitcoinTalk.  I plan on giving all of your recommended books a once over so that I can have a better understanding of things before I go delving into a new arena.

Certainly, and thank you for the kind words.  I believe that you will learn much more from these sources than from me!

I have one question, you stated above that "when I wrote that last year (I have a small account in the Bitcoin market, which I hope to grow through trading!  If anyone makes money trading and they take a signal based on my recommendation, please consider donating a small amount of the profits!), I envisioned this thread turning out differently than it did."

What did you mean by that? How did this thread turn out differently than you had anticipated?

The initial premise of this thread was to teach a simple method of trading and earn some change in tips from happy and profitable traders.  My mistake is that I misjudged the average participant in the Speculation forum.  I believed that the average poster was familiar with the basic tenants of trading.  I found this was not the case.

This put me in an ethical bind: what is the "right" course of action?

- Teach some mechanical trading rules to a group of people in which the average participant doesn't fully understand the laws upon which they are built
- Or scrap the plan and instead demonstrate what it takes to actually be a successful trader

My purpose from the beginning has been to help the average person stop losing their hard-earned money.  I believe that by focusing on successful trading tenants rather than a mechanical system of profit, I better accomplish this objective.
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July 25, 2013, 01:54:26 AM
 #831

I have actively used this both for fast moving volatile trades and some long standing intraday trend based trading/investing.

It served as my light to guide me to a very sizable 500% margin in 8 months. Some days I traded heavily with some quite sharp and clear stop lossing using EMA X/EMA 2.1x. Some periods I load balanced and some days I walked away, in fact the chart looked so bad a few weeks ago, I didn't trade into bitcoin for 2 weeks, it was volatile and down trending. I made a lot of money on these "short" trades.

I feel that some days/weeks the market can be ranging too finely to show a profit with the extra slippage caused by volatility and other bots. So then I just switch EMAs longer.

This is one of the good strategies for long term effective decision making.



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July 25, 2013, 05:45:40 AM
 #832

Goomboo, sorry If I missed this assuming it has been asked before:

How do you generate alerts on these crossover signals?  I've been using EMA + MACD signals but often wake up to find that a new signal has been
generated overnight as I slept, and I either missed an entry or am now holding a position I should have exited...

thanks for any tips.

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July 25, 2013, 09:52:38 PM
 #833

How do you generate alerts on these crossover signals?  I've been using EMA + MACD signals but often wake up to find that a new signal has been
generated overnight as I slept, and I either missed an entry or am now holding a position I should have exited...

I use the daily timeframe, so I just check the chart every day to see if a signal has been generated.  For the lower timeframes, I'm not too sure.  Maybe the Sierra Charts bridge?  Anyone else have any recommendations?
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July 25, 2013, 11:22:53 PM
 #834

How do you generate alerts on these crossover signals?  I've been using EMA + MACD signals but often wake up to find that a new signal has been
generated overnight as I slept, and I either missed an entry or am now holding a position I should have exited...

I use the daily timeframe, so I just check the chart every day to see if a signal has been generated.  For the lower timeframes, I'm not too sure.  Maybe the Sierra Charts bridge?  Anyone else have any recommendations?

That's what I would use! It's really easy to set up a crossover alert on just about any two oscillating lines.

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July 26, 2013, 03:50:21 PM
 #835

are you saying you never hold overnight?  I've been following EMA / MACD on 10-day timeframe as well as 2-month an am sometimes surprised by a 10-point overnight drop where I miss an exit...  I'd think the ability to generate real time alerts would be key to trade these kind of signals given that the market is often active 'after hours' as Japan awakes, etc...

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July 26, 2013, 08:00:00 PM
 #836

are you saying you never hold overnight?  I've been following EMA / MACD on 10-day timeframe as well as 2-month an am sometimes surprised by a 10-point overnight drop where I miss an exit...  I'd think the ability to generate real time alerts would be key to trade these kind of signals given that the market is often active 'after hours' as Japan awakes, etc...


He trades off of 10 day and 21 day moving averages.

https://www.bitcoin.org/bitcoin.pdf
While no idea is perfect, some ideas are useful.
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July 26, 2013, 08:43:06 PM
 #837

I trade similar signals, but often don't have all day to exit a position on a volatile day - that doesn't answer my question.

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July 26, 2013, 09:47:32 PM
 #838

are you saying you never hold overnight?

Here is what it means to trade the 10/21 crossover:

- When the 10 period moving average is above the 21 period moving average, hold BTC
- When the 10 period moving average is below the 21 period moving average, hold cash

So this means that I will be holding for days, weeks, or even months at a time.  The longer I hold and don't have to trade, the better for me!  I prefer to buy and hold through a massive trend rather than paying commissions, crossing the spread, and churning my account through trading.

Here's a chart to show what I mean.  The red circle shows where I would sell my BTC and the green circle shows where I would buy back.  This means that for this month and a half, I should have held cash and not BTC.



So to directly answer your question: I hold overnight...I hold for as long as the trend remains.


I've been following EMA / MACD on 10-day timeframe as well as 2-month an am sometimes surprised by a 10-point overnight drop where I miss an exit...  I'd think the ability to generate real time alerts would be key to trade these kind of signals given that the market is often active 'after hours' as Japan awakes, etc...

I think we're talking about two different things.  When I say the "daily timeframe", I mean that each bar on the chart I examine is comprised of one day of trading data.  How much data is actually shown on the chart is irrelevant for this exercise.  

When I read your post, the "10-day timeframe" sounds like you have 10-days of information on the chart.  What matters is the what one bar on the chart represents, not how much data is on the chart.  Notice how in my chart above, at the very top it says "1 day bars" - that means that each candle represents the open, low, high, and close for an entire trading day.  This is what I mean by the daily timeframe.

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July 27, 2013, 03:15:49 AM
 #839

Okay I'm following you now.  So you never act on a signal until after a full 24 hour bar has posted, and then you just take the current price as the exit price? 

I'd call that 'swing trading'; I'm using similar averages as well, with MACD sometimes for confirmation, to add size, or anticipate signals.

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg90ztgSza1gEMAzm1g7za2gEMAzm2g20zxzi1gMACDzl

When I see these averages cross over it can happen during the day or during the night, and by the time I catch the signal the price can be 10+ points off from where it was when the averages crossed.  Typically I'm more concerned about exiting  long trades. For example if the crossover happens when price falls to 96 I'd rather take that exit than 8 hours later when it's already down to 86 by the time I notice the event.   

It'd be nice to get a text alert or something as soon as the signal is detected, instead of waiting until I check the charts.... I think this would have saved me few points by timing better.
 

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July 27, 2013, 03:20:24 AM
 #840


Here is what it means to trade the 10/21 crossover:

- When the 10 period moving average is above the 21 period moving average, hold BTC
- When the 10 period moving average is below the 21 period moving average, hold cash

Trading far less actively and picking a different period (than days) but loving the method.  Keep up the great work.

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