Goomboo's Journal

[ErebusBat]

Simple System, But have been using MT4 for forex, Sierra is kind of unfriendly, and don't like web charts, missing the mt4 tools.
Does anybody know of a free chart feed for MT4? Any broker with MT4 BTC charts?

Not a silver bullet, but hope: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160791.0

[rezurect]

Simple System, But have been using MT4 for forex, Sierra is kind of unfriendly, and don't like web charts, missing the mt4 tools.
Does anybody know of a free chart feed for MT4? Any broker with MT4 BTC charts?

Not a silver bullet, but hope: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160791.0

I tried the eKVM BTC charts first. Failed to work for me.
Seems to have worked for Maria 2.0 on 29th March. Either some API changes or i`m doing something wrong.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=160791.msg1931180#msg1931180

[RationalSpeculator]

Thank you so much for this journal M. Goomboo.

Before reading this, I was convinced 'buy and hold' was the best strategy.
I wish I had read it before the price went down.
I simply bought and hold since spring 2011.

You've proven me wrong and I thank you for that. 

How did Gomboo prove that?

[seleme]

looks like we're minutes from crossover

[elux]

Postponed for an hour by a single limit order cleaning out the asks all the way up to 157, about two minutes before the hour.

That single trade avoided a massive red candle on the hourly. (Well below the hourly averages.) Painting the tape much?

[seleme]

yeah, it's postponed a bit but I guess it's coming, looks like up trend is bit exhausted unless some other big buys jump in.

[AmazonStuff]

And now we could expect Goomboo traders...

[seleme]

And now we could expect Goomboo traders...

not that we would mind that though

[elux]

looks like we're minutes from crossover

[dandirk]

It would seem that even in such a small market as BTC, mechanically profiting from the trend is viable.

Or not... the last few days were terrible. So many false signals. 

What are you talking about?  Virtually every scale I looked at has been buy and hold for a few days using this method... If you went by the suggested scale, you would buy in around 125 and sold at 155... Seems like a good trade.  There wasn't even any confusing overlap of sideways action with the 2 indicators, you do get more of those with 10 day/1hour scales.  At that point I just shorten the timeframe a bit...

[Frozenlock]

Look between 21-23rd.

[Frozenlock]

In addition, today too might have been a false signal. We'll see soon.

[seleme]

Bitcoin market is too crazy for this system. It does look good for risk management and as safe as possible trading but it's way too slow for crazy ups and downs of bitcoin.

[dandirk]

Bitcoin market is too crazy for this system. It does look good for risk management and as safe as possible trading but it's way too slow for crazy ups and downs of bitcoin.

If you are looking to day trade yes I would agree, it is difficult enough and you really need those tight margins to profit (if at all).  But as a weekly trader it is pretty good, you do just have to watch out for sideways movement.

There is a trading bot based on this system on chrome store... you can tweak the sensitivity if you are worried about the sideways movement but you will loose a little in inefficiency.

[seleme]

Bitcoin market is too crazy for this system. It does look good for risk management and as safe as possible trading but it's way too slow for crazy ups and downs of bitcoin.

If you are looking to day trade yes I would agree, it is difficult enough and you really need those tight margins to profit (if at all).  But as a weekly trader it is pretty good, you do just have to watch out for sideways movement.

There is a trading bot based on this system on chrome store... you can tweak the sensitivity if you are worried about the sideways movement but you will loose a little in inefficiency.

Yep, it's fairly safe one and cuts lot of risks. I'd say it's one for people who have nice amount of coins and looks to add some interest on them. I'm not one of those, I have very few coins and I have to be more aggressive and have risky approach if I'm ever to possibly reach a position where I'd be good enough to load my coins and hold. I'm nowhere near close of that so it's to be aggressive trying to do it or lose all. I haven't invested what I'm not ready to lose so I am ready for all options.

Still, this is useful even for me as it gives some insight early enough.

[dandirk]

I would look at using the MACD and RSI indicators along with EMA.  They aren't perfect but will give you a few additional points to confirm a decision.  MACD will usually signal a move a bit earlier then the EMAs but it also throws more false signals on side-ways movement.

[seleme]

cheers, i'll look at that too

[ScrapOfCat]

I'm beginning to have the distinct impression that soon, I will owe Goomboo a tip 

[Ichthyo]

In addition, today too might have been a false signal. We'll see soon.

If you're concerned about false signals -- to be precise, such a market following system doesn't know false signals. But the trading fees and your actual reaction time can be a problem. Basically I see two approaches:

Either you combine it with a bit of common sense, i.e. you just watch out for sideways movement and require a real breakout to flip sides

Or, if you want a mechanical method, e.g. for programming a bot, then I'd use the amount of the trading fees to define some kind of hysteresis; require a move at least by the fee-% before considering the next signal.

[ErebusBat]

You sir get +1 internets for using the term hysteresis