FAIRLAY - SPORTS BETTING for experts - highest liquidity, provably best odds

[FairlaySupport]

We are going to announce CFD  (Contract for Difference)  markets soon, probably tomorrow.  These are markets that settle to a decimal result.  

We finished this far ahead of schedule as there might be a high demand for it.  
There are still certain information missing and some minor bugs need to be fixed.  We didn't put too much effort into the User Interface. We will make a nicer one in our new release of Fairlay that is going live in April.

Anyway, you can already take a first glimpse here:  

https://fairlay.com/category/news/bitcoin-futarchy/all/

Feedback is of course welcomed.

[FairlaySupport]

We have been asked how we will handle a possible hard fork with Bitcoin Unlimited.  All our customers will receive BTC-Us according to their balance. All our existing markets will be settled in BTC-U and BTC-Core and also require BTC-Core and BTC-U to place orders on it.  

[Hatcher]

We have been asked how we will handle a possible hard fork with Bitcoin Unlimited.  All our customers will receive BTC-Us according to their balance. All our existing markets will be settled in BTC-U and BTC-Core and also require BTC-Core and BTC-U to place orders on it.  

So after the hardfork we need to make 2 deposits in order to place bets? If we deposit just BTC-C, we can't do anything until we have an equal amount of BTC-U?

[krach]

How can people apply to become an affilate?

[FairlaySupport]

We have been asked how we will handle a possible hard fork with Bitcoin Unlimited.  All our customers will receive BTC-Us according to their balance. All our existing markets will be settled in BTC-U and BTC-Core and also require BTC-Core and BTC-U to place orders on it.  

So after the hardfork we need to make 2 deposits in order to place bets? If we deposit just BTC-C, we can't do anything until we have an equal amount of BTC-U?

If you want to bet on old markets, yes. We have not decided what we will do with new markets, created after the HF.  We hope we won't have to do this decision.

[FairlaySupport]

Any particular reason that you dont have every cashout linked to a blockchain transaction? If you open "Cashout history" you can only see the receiver address, but no link to transaction itself. I dont think thats very optimal.

Yes, there is a technical reason. Thank you for your suggestions anyway.

[FairlaySupport]

Currently our entire team is working on a new release of our website with a better design and improved usability. We decided to stop this for a moment to work on something, that we think, the community desperately needs right now: Futarchy markets.
Futarchy markets go back to the famous Robin Hanson (http://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/futarchy.html) and could become a very crucial tool for governance in the future. It is proven, that these markets aggregate informations with a much higher efficiency than experts or polls. Furthermore they allow market participants to comply with a decision they were originally rejecting. That would increase the chances of achieving consensus - something we could really use right now.
Users, miners or companies could support a certain protocol change, they originally dismissed, by short selling on the corresponding futarchy market and buying on the Bitcoin spot market at the same time to guarantee a sure profit.
Alternatively, market participants who have deeper insight, which protocol change is indeed the best for the long term success of Bitcoin, have the option to increase the likelihood of that change and make profits in the process.
First markets can be found here:
https://fairlay.com/category/news/bitcoin-futarchy/all/
If you like to have another market, you can create any Future market yourself without permission and instantly on our website.
We are sorry, that the UI is not the best right now. We focused on the functionality. It will be better with our new release.

[hogie2010]

I've noticed in the last week or so that the sports market choices are not sorting properly. An example of this is when I click on Hockey, I get the hockey markets ok, then I click on NHL OT Included and that works ok but when I click to further sort the results like clicking on Moneyline the results are Moneylines for all hockey leagues and not my previously requested NHL OT Included.

This caused me a big issue last night when I booked a NHL Regular Time game instead of OT Included.

Are you aware of this?

Thank you,
Hogie2010

[FairlaySupport]

thank you for the bug report!   We indeed introduced it this week.

We send you a 10mBTC bug bounty via PM.

[FairlaySupport]

Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society.  To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/  market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC  according to certain predefined terms.    The sha-256 hash of the terms is  

620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43

We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.


Edit:  This promotion runs until June 1st 2017 and will also be settled at this date. It's a draw. The orderid that is closest to a predetermined value, according to some predetermined measure, wins.

[FairlaySupport]

As we are an outspoken critic of the 1MB blockers at Core, we received some complaints, calling us BU trolls and similiar things.  Just to make it clear for once. We reject nothing more than a solution that will result in a permanent chain split. BU has not the necessary community support and we reject it.  We are supporting a hard fork to SegWit and 2 MB blocks.  We'd support any solution, that brings back the transaction fees to 3-10c, fixes transaction malleability, enables the concept of sidechains (2-way-peg for projects like Rootstock)  and has the majority of the community behind it.

[Hatcher]

Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society.  To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/  market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC  according to certain predefined terms.    The sha-256 hash of the terms is  

620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43

We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.

So is this a draw? You will randomly choose one matched bet to win this prize?

Anyways, I placed a qualifying bet. Now that I understand how these markets work, I may participate in more of them. Quite cool.

[PokerFace3]

Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society.  To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/  market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC  according to certain predefined terms.    The sha-256 hash of the terms is  

620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43

We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.

I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s.

I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.

[Lionidas]

Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society.  To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/  market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC  according to certain predefined terms.    The sha-256 hash of the terms is  

620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43

We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.

I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s.

I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.

The fork can affect your bets on there?
I had no idea that the eventual split of Bitcoin core and Bitcoin unlimited could do this.
So I will go with using ethereum from now one since they are already done their split with their hard fork from last year into Ethereum and Etclassic.

[erol34]

Is anyone else unable to login right now?

[FairlaySupport]

Is anyone else unable to login right now?

Sometimes there are strange issues. Deleting your fairlay cookies, clearing your cache, going in incognito or trying another machine usually solves these.  We are confident these bugs disappear with our new release.

[FairlaySupport]

Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society.  To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/  market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC  according to certain predefined terms.    The sha-256 hash of the terms is  

620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43

We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.

I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s.

I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.

This is a valid point.  It's more fun to place a bet on some soccer game and watch it right after.  

Anyway, our policital bets  like the Next President  in the US and France also attracted decent volume (>>1000 BTC  and over 300 BTC respectively) . And they are also rather long term. We still hope Futarchy markets will become more popular. The more volume these markets attract, the better the price is going to be, which could help finding consensus some day.


@Hatcher  Yes, it is a draw.

[DarkStar_]

Unfortunately, our users are rather reluctant in betting on long term markets that aggregate important and extremely useful informations for society.  To motivate betting on our https://fairlay.com/market/bitcoin-future-if-segwit-is-activated-as-soft-fork/  market, we will give out 2x 50mBTC. We will distribute this to the two users belonging to one matched order above 10mBTC  according to certain predefined terms.    The sha-256 hash of the terms is  

620c10675663aa8a5857f01aa4680c69064a6461cfde510521357eaa551c6f43

We reserve the right to exclude anyone that we suspect to have manipulated this promotion.

I think the reason the betting amount is low could be people thinking that sports are much more fun than the result of what we are going to do with our block sizes and transaction fee’s.

I mean I know its important for all of us in bitcoin World but it is not as predictable as a football games result. I know give or take what Monaco-Metz will be, I have no idea what BU and core will do.

The fork can affect your bets on there?
I had no idea that the eventual split of Bitcoin core and Bitcoin unlimited could do this.
So I will go with using ethereum from now one since they are already done their split with their hard fork from last year into Ethereum and Etclassic.

You are betting on the fork, so of course it can affect your bets. In fact, that is what you want to see happen (unless you bet on no fork).

ETH isn't much better imo, and I wouldn't be surprised to see another hard fork in the future to fix something. A BTC hard fork could cause you to lose your BTU (if BU forks) if the service doesn't give you the BTU, but all other bets are still unaffected by a fork.

[8xbt.com]

For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?

[DarkStar_]

For the discrepancy of odds in the French presidential election with other bookmakers such as betfair, is the odds offer in Fairlay more accurate or not? Is it because people dealing with bitcoin is smarter than the people in betfair so the odds here are more accurate?

There is no "accurate" odds. People on exchanges place a bet that they want (ie 1 to win @2), and than someone else can take his offer and the bet than becomes valid. People creating the markets on Fairlay might think that one person has a greater change to win than others, and they change their odds to reflect that. Some books also have a lower margin, so instead of 1.91/1.91 on a even market, there might be 1.96/1.96 on some books.