[XMR] Monero Speculation

[Febo]

Out of curiosity, is anyone concerned by Monero's continued decline is hash rate since beginning of 2022? Not trying to FUD here, just curious of what people think about the following...

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-hashrate.html#3y


To me it looks static last year. It declined in 2022. What is normal since also price declined in 2022.   Well at second look, I see price mainly declined in 2021. I guess during that year it was still hope Monero price will go up and more people mined with loss. Later they saw that is it for this cycle and gave up. Hash rate increased a lot in 2021. It is normal some of those newcomers dropped out.  


Why is BTC hash rate keep growing I have no ideas. When I googled their last new ASIC come out in march 2020.  Makes little sense that miners would need up to 3 years to update their miners.  But what do I know.

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[dragonvslinux]

Out of curiosity, is anyone concerned by Monero's continued decline is hash rate since beginning of 2022? Not trying to FUD here, just curious of what people think about the following...

https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/monero-hashrate.html#3y


To me it looks static last year. It declined in 2022. What is normal since also price declined in 2022.   Well at second look, I see price mainly declined in 2021. I guess during that year it was still hope Monero price will go up and more people mined with loss. Later they saw that is it for this cycle and gave up. Hash rate increased a lot in 2021. It is normal some of those newcomers dropped out.  

I guess zooming out then it's also true that in 2018/2019 hash rate also declined then looked static, followed by the growth in 2020/2021, no doubt due to the price increase. So maybe it's not relevant.

Why is BTC hash rate keep growing I have no ideas. When I googled their last new ASIC come out in march 2020.  Makes little sense that miners would need up to 3 years to update their miners.  But what do I know.

Generally it's because it always increases, minus the odd dip. This is largely due to constantly finding cheaper electricity prices across the globe and increasingly affordable renewable energy. More recently also other industries such as hydro dams, as it can be cheaper to mine Bitcoin than to produce low quantity of electricity which isn't economically viable all year round. Flare gas based operations avoiding flaring by mining Bitcoin instead which saves a lot of money and scrutiny. Even main grids adopting Bitcoin mining, as it's cheaper to mine Bitcoin than to store excess electricity and always will be.

I realise Monero and Bitcoin mining are completely different markets, as one is based on cost of GPU/CPUs prominently, whereas the other is generally based on electricity costs and production savings.

[smooth]

Out of curiosity, is anyone concerned by Monero's continued decline is hash rate since beginning of 2022?

It's tracking price (i.e. almost perfectly flat) over the past year which makes sense given the constant tail reward. Before that the price was coming down into the crypto winter and tail reward hadn't been reached yet.

Likewise this thread has gone pretty quiet which is partially a function of the crypto scene moving out from bitcointalk and partially that it's not that interesting to speculate on a flat price.

[tokeweed]

^  And it shows that it's def a really good sign that no ASIC maker has figured out RandomX yet.    I'd be more worried if the hash rate suddenly goes up at a fast pace tbh.

As for the chart, I've been starting to look at XMR against BTC as the base currency more and more.  The chart just looks smoother than if paired against USD.

It's been ranging since 2020...  Watch out if it breaks out above .009 - .0092 resistance.

[RussianEnglishTranslation]

^  And it shows that it's def a really good sign that no ASIC maker has figured out RandomX yet.    I'd be more worried if the hash rate suddenly goes up at a fast pace tbh.

As for the chart, I've been starting to look at XMR against BTC as the base currency more and more.  The chart just looks smoother than if paired against USD.

It's been ranging since 2020...  Watch out if it breaks out above .009 - .0092 resistance.

It's more likely that 0xMR returns to 1usd for a 10x than Monero returning to its ATH.

[dragonvslinux]

It's been ranging since 2020...  Watch out if it breaks out above .009 - .0092 resistance.

Indeed, there's a multi-year range that has developed now. It does look more bullish than bearish for the long-long-term, as the consolidation is clearly above 2015/2016 previous range. While I always look at BTC pairs, I do pay attention to USD pairs as well. In the case of Monero, the issue I have is the double top on dollar chart. While it's not particularly bearish to have such a resistance level, it raises the question of what the Bitcoin price of Monero would if there would be a triple top on the dollar chart (that I think is relatively likely eventually, as can now be considered strong resistance).

Baring this in mind, the issue I have is that a future triple top on the dollar chart could now easily be a re-test of the current range's resistance. Not so similar to the May 2021 high that was a re-test of the range's resistance level. In summary, I have no doubt that Monero will continue to appreciate in the long-term against the dollar, but against Bitcoin, it may well sit sideways for many more years to come. My most optimistic scenario would be that breaking out of the range leads to re-testing around 0.02 BTC. But then by doing so, there are around 2 years worth of buyers that could well be keen to get out...

[elrippos friend]

Let's see what the curve is doing this time, cycle would be to go up after the bottom we have 

[dragonvslinux]

Thought I'd give my current opinion on XMR/BTC as has been a few months. After the rejection from the anticapted 200 WMA back in March, price has entered the no-trade zone, in between support and resistance.



Like most other altcoins, it looks like there will be a bit more downside before any upside, possibly next year. There is also a bearish cross of the 50 & 200 Week MAs incoming as circled around 0.0065 BTC, with the volume point of control just above at 0.007. A nice setup for a long position would likely be at the support level around 0.004 BTC towards the end of the year, for an initial target of 0.008 BTC (swing range trade).

[tokeweed]

^  Yeah, but I'm starting to think that price analysis and TA seems like it's useless for XMR now it this point of its existence.  There's almost no speculation going on with XMR and most of those who own it, really use it.  And the growth is slow but organic.  I think long term we're positioned better than BTC in terms of community, organic usage and real growth...  Not just those guys who park their fiat in a coin then dumps them and they'll do it all over again when another spot arises.

I'm not saying that I'm not doing it or it should be frowned upon.  I'm just talking about what I'm seeing specifically with XMR.  It's a totally different culture.

[johnfoss]

The Monero Moon newsletter is back!

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-62

Check it out!!!

[johnfoss]

MONERO MOON ISSUE #63

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-63

[johnfoss]

MONERO IS NOT DEAD

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-64

[infofront]

MONERO IS NOT DEAD

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-64

No, but this thread is  

Thanks for keeping The Monero Moon going!

[phishead]

Heyo friends… wtf has been going on lately? Lmao.

[Globb0]

Dont ask me   


Go XMR   yay!

[kurious]

MONERO IS NOT DEAD

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-64

No, but this thread is  

Thanks for keeping The Monero Moon going!

I second that, it's a good read and always welcome, even for those who (like me) lurk more than comment.

I bought XMR nearly a decade ago when it was first listed on Poloniex and I still have a decent stash - and I use it in real life.  Monero still has genuine use cases and is - and always has been - a great coin. Pricewise, Litecoin looks positively anaemic compared to Monero - XMR is in good health.

[phishead]

MONERO IS NOT DEAD

https://www.themoneromoon.com/p/the-monero-moon-issue-64

No, but this thread is 

Thanks for keeping The Monero Moon going!

I second that, it's a good read and always welcome, even for those who (like me) lurk more than comment.

I bought XMR nearly a decade ago when it was first listed on Poloniex and I still have a decent stash - and I use it in real life.  Monero still has genuine use cases and is - and always has been - a great coin. Pricewise, Litecoin looks positively anaemic compared to Monero - XMR is in good health.

I ‘member when hyc and gingeropolous helped me rig a miner to go 7 H/s. 😂

[tokeweed]

^  Funny you mentioned hyc, I was just thinking about him and wondering how the Monero devs became close to him that he eventually became a Monero dev himself.

All I know is hyc was still developing LMDB and I think fluffypony and the guys approached him and requested for him to port LMDB to 32bit so it could be used for Monero..?  Is that right?

But what I really want to know is did hyc make optimizations in LMDB specifically for Monero so that it could get the most performance from the database?

[phishead]

^  Funny you mentioned hyc, I was just thinking about him and wondering how the Monero devs became close to him that he eventually became a Monero dev himself.

All I know is hyc was still developing LMDB and I think fluffypony and the guys approached him and requested for him to port LMDB to 32bit so it could be used for Monero..?  Is that right?

But what I really want to know is did hyc make optimizations in LMDB specifically for Monero so that it could get the most performance from the database?

Dude, I got no clue man... I followed AP here. Yolo'd in.

[Imy]

Took me many years to realize why Monero is needed. Watching the government print endless money while telling you what you can and cannot do. If it were not for Monero, we would remain slaves to this system. Fortunately, significant change is on the horizon. In fact, it has already begun. It cannot be stopped.

On the topic of price action, it does not bother me now. Looking at which cryptocurrencies are currently worth more than Monero is funny, but that is why the show will be so much better.

For now, it is possible to buy one whole Monero for $150. To trade 150 of something that has an infinite supply for 1 out of 18 million seems like a good deal to me. Assuming you take self custody, of course. Otherwise, your Monero is owned by an exchange that does not operate any different than normal banks.

Bitcoin can serve as the perfect tool for any entity to find out everything about your money. How much, when, with who. Monero gives you privacy and freedom. The choice is ours.