By the way, I am also of the mind that this BTC epoch stands a VERY strong chance of being significantly different than the last ones... but that's another story.
Actually, I'd be interested in hearing your thoughts about that sometime too.
Well most of my thoughts are more feel than science, as usual... but that's also just me. But I think this is Monero related enough to yammer in here a little about it.
I think I am sort of in the camp that this might be Bitcoin's "supercycle". I do not like that nomenclature a lot because it is very binary. But what I think is there are MULTIPLE reasons that this 'halving epoch' is not likely to be an echo of the previous three (2011, 2014, 2017).
1. We have a SIGNIFICANT difference in the buyer so far in this cycle. As far as I can tell the vast majority (volume) of purchases are being made at the OTC desks by large $$ buyers. On the small end we are talking "family offices", and the big end goes as far as Central Banks but includes Commercial Banks/Institutions (fidelity) Corporate Treasuries (MSTR, TSLA, etc etc) and prime time whales. Retail is STILL barely getting on board in my opinion.
2. Infrastructure is WAY different this time. We have Bitcoin being integrated into things like Square/CashApp, Paypal etc. The lightning network is gaining MORE and MORE traction in spite of it's (even worse than good old monero) UX. Strike is a ridiculous game changer, and a real sleeper, because what it will do is incentivize retail to integrate lightning. Liquid is another underappreciated diamond in the rough. And the fact is all of this infrastructure has been built has the capacity to start providing liquidity outflows from the base layer. These are ways to transact with BTC that do not require the base layer.
3. BTC based financial products are in their toddler years now. The BTC derivatives market is FAR more mature than past bulls. This will dampen volatility as well as possibly give folks more ways to manipulate the market. This one has a sort of surprise train wreck waiting in the wings though. It will be a magnificent explosion when the first big money actor goes down in flames when they end up getting a run on their rehypothicated BTC product. Unlike previous forms of "money" there is no release valve for this kind of shenanigans. There are no bail outs. The GME thing was a warm up prelude for this. It might hurst the BTC price when it happens, in fact it COULD invalidate this whole supercycle theory, as it could force a >50% bear. But in the end it will make people understand that you cannot fuck with the honey badger. Also, ETFs are really almost here now.
4. EVERYONE. And, I mean nearly EVERYONE is CURRENTLY pontificating on how BTC is going to 500k-3mm and then will do it's 80% retrace to teach the noobs. I have been watching market patters for decades. I am no expert. But it NEVER works this way. it invalidates "Max Pain". And I think 2017 was really a bonus cycle. We should already have learned our lesson. It is rare that markets will just do the same pattern over and over, because once it is an established pattern the smart folks exploit it, and it becomes a sel UNfullfilling prophecy. Eventually trying to frontrun the pattern invalidates it. We are overdue.
5. There is no situation in which the bitcoin price takes such a big hit without huge buyers moving in to take advantage of it at this point. Enough smart people have realized that "in hindsight it is inevitable". So it can;t really drop without recovering.
This bull so far is bearing out my theory. It is too early to declare victory, but I expect Saylor might be sort of right, that it's going up forever Laura. I think it is more likely we crash NOW than do another 6 months of parabolic bull and have the traditional 80% retrace.
To keep it on topic... the influx of thinking money into Bitcoin is just BOUND to funnel at least hedges into Monero. ALT friendly folks like Raoul Pal will figure it out. And even hypermaxis like Matt Odell will also eventually break down.
So... in conclusion. I think there is a SIGNIFICANT chance we see a much dampened dip this time, and possibly a little less parabola, but just a steady UP UP UP of bitcoin, and that trickles down to Monero. Or even no dip, and still some parabolic action... I also think it's an outside chance, but I think Monero has a SERIOUS chance with all the infrastructure upgrades to take it's place back in the top 10, if not higher... when? Not sure. I think other members of this thread are much better at those details.
