[XMR] Monero Speculation

[wavessurfing]

Who remembers the traditional annual March pump?  2015, 2016 and 2017 was pump all the year anyway   Oh and looking at chart it was also 2018.

But the good news is that transactions seems to make another leg up after staying static in January and February. 16 days in a row with 20k+ transactions a day. Very soon this should be a standard.   

still the leader.

[LUCKMCFLY]

XMR is a currency that in my opinion is one of those that will always survive despite any event, the reason is simple, privacy and anonymity is something that many in the near future will seek, in addition the history of Monero is another index that is very likely to continue growing.

In most people when they go to observe the chart of any alt they see how the behavior of Bitcoin is, and Monero follows the same direction as Bitcoin, which is quite beneficial, especially for Monero hodlers.


Source: tradingview.com

I think that at any moment Monero will reach the 475USD that it reached in December 2017, it may come and go, apparently Monero is undervalued, it is a very good chance for those who are undecided to buy Monero.

[DonYo]

Normie coins are willing to integrate privacy features on themselves. Once privacy fashion hits the cryptosphere Monero will shine with it's own dark light

[Febo]

Normie coins are willing to integrate privacy features on themselves. Once privacy fashion hits the cryptosphere Monero will shine with it's own dark light

All Central Bank Cryptocurrencies will have opaque ledger. They will for sure vastly advertise why that is way better then Bitcoins transparent ledger. Sadly it might take years for them to be implemented. Definitely for EU. China might be faster.

[cAPSLOCK]

Normie coins are willing to integrate privacy features on themselves. Once privacy fashion hits the cryptosphere Monero will shine with it's own dark light

All Central Bank Cryptocurrencies will have opaque ledger. They will for sure vastly advertise why that is way better then Bitcoins transparent ledger. Sadly it might take years for them to be implemented. Definitely for EU. China might be faster.

SOOOOOOO  many bugs will be exploited in these closed source ledgers.  It will take time, but this will be good for Bitcoin, and Monero for sure.

[Febo]

Four days in March Monero had less than 20k transactions a day. Today is the last chance for it, to end month with 5 such days. Overall for month March number should be around 700k. Usually at the end of the month numbers start decreasing. Hopefully this month will not be such.

Also a good Monero review of a guy that gets over 100k views on youtube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O58STfvxZnY

[Bassica]

Zoomed out number of Monero transactions. This time average daily transaction per quarter. We can see that Monero transactions bull run started at start of 2019, so two years ago. First bull run was from mid 2016 to end of 2017 when also last Bitcoin price bull run ended.

Monero doing so well on so many metrics. Everything is pointing towards greatness, except price. Are people not getting worried?

[phishead]

You know, I have two mediumish margin positions... both long on XMR and BTC in USD.  Honestly I'm starting to feel really comfortable in this position for the long term because of the fact that the xmr/usd & btc/usd relationships are pretty directly inversely related yet bullish in the general trends. 

Feeling good, man

[heraldd]

I was reading https://localmonero.co/knowledge/monero-atomic-swaps?language=en but I still don't understand how price discovery will work with atomic swaps. Can someone explain me? Will the system rely on the price of XMR/BTC on other exchanges?

[Hueristic]

I was reading https://localmonero.co/knowledge/monero-atomic-swaps?language=en but I still don't understand how price discovery will work with atomic swaps. Can someone explain me? Will the system rely on the price of XMR/BTC on other exchanges?

IIRC It should be what the market can bear,

IOW whatever you set your sell price for.

[heraldd]

IIRC It should be what the market can bear,

IOW whatever you set your sell price for.

Thank you, but I am not sure I understand. Do you mean a whole DEX will be built on purpose with its own price discovery mechanism? Would it use an order book or an AMM?

[Hueristic]

IIRC It should be what the market can bear,

IOW whatever you set your sell price for.

Thank you, but I am not sure I understand. Do you mean a whole DEX will be built on purpose with its own price discovery mechanism? Would it use an order book or an AMM?

Atomic swap is the mechanism, it can be used (setup a transaction) by anyone.

You question is for software that will use the mechanism to facilitate a dex.

[bitebits]

I think today ($235) the below major event is far from priced in yet. In <14 months tail emission kicks in, the last variable block reward is mined (currently ~1.09 XMR per two minute block and dropping). At that future date in just eight years time a whopping 18.4 million XMR are mined. A then constant tail emission of 0.6 XMR per block means ~0.85% inflation in the first year (157,680 XMR), and that percentage is declining each following year. The only way still being able to get a decent number of monero is increasing your bid price, there a very few new moneros coming into existence from miners.

I will check in again in a year's time. But in the meanwhile, grab some while they are still cheap.

Monero block rewards will never drop to zero. Block rewards will gradually drop until tail emission commences at the end of May 2022. At this point, rewards will be fixed at 0.6 XMR per block.

https://www.getmonero.org/resources/moneropedia/tail-emission.html

[Febo]

In less then 3 weeks time Monero will be 7 years old. Hopefully that will put some light on the project. In June there is planed Monero Konferenco 2022 in Berlin https://monerokon.com/cfp/  It was cancelled last year and postponed to this year. Right now I am wondering how big chance is that it happens. Covid is very alive right now in Europe, but 3 months can change a lot.  


EDIT: https://twitter.com/MoneroKon/status/1360312111105146881   I see it was already decided to be an online conference.

[heraldd]

Atomic swap is the mechanism, it can be used (setup a transaction) by anyone.

You question is for software that will use the mechanism to facilitate a dex so you are asking in the wrong place.

I understand this thread is about speculating on the price of Monero, so I will try to explain why I think a strong price discovery mechanism is highly related. (I imagine the OP of this reddit post https://www.reddit.com/r/Monero/comments/kp0hhg/monero_price_discovery_atomic_swaps_exchange/ tried to describe the same problem but I am not sure he was understood)

#1 Relying on other sources for price determination is bad

- If the atomic swaps system (that was funded for development) relies on other exchanges for price determination, the price will not increase even if the volume is high. If 5% of the global volume occurs on Binance, 5% on HBTC, 5% on OKEx and 85% on the atomic swaps system, the price will still be an average of the 15% volume occurring on Binance, HBTC and OKEx (thus all the volume occurring on the atomic swaps system won't have any effect on the price)

- The system wouldn't be fully decentralized as it wouldn't work without the price feeds of centralized exchanges

- Almost all of the recent exploits in Defi occurred because of price oracles manipulations


#2 Building a price discovery mechanism is hard

- Maintaining an order book on a blockchain is not effective because every bids and asks must be published on the chain (on the contrary, it is very easy for a centralized exchange because they just use a database...). On non smart-contract chains like BTC and XMR, this is almost impossible to implement. Even if it was, it would be very expensive (every bid and ask would incur a fee) and slow (you would need to wait for the next block to have your bid / ask validated). Layer2 would solve these problems but Lightning is for payments (not contracts) and no sight of Layer2 on XMR as far as I know...

- If the atomic swaps systems somehow implements a price discovery mechanism, but a clunky one (like on Bisq), buyers and sellers will just end up setting a "price + X%" (based on the average price of other exchanges, thus coming back to problem #1)


#3 AMM on smart contract chains is the way to go at the moment

AMM (Automated Market Maker) is a simple idea that fixed the order book on chain for the moment. It is not perfect (liquidity providers might occur impermanent loss at the profit of arbitragers) but it's the best decentralized solution until layer2 contracts are implemented. Uniswap (and clones) managed to capture huge volumes thanks to this simple idea


#4 A better system will be invented

Right now, all Defi occurs on Ethereum because it's so much easier to develop on. AMM is a temporary fix that will probably be replaced by true order books when a good layer2 solution is implemented. But all volume might shift to yet another chain if Ethereum doesn't scale quickly enough. I just want to insist that building a decentralized exchange with a true price discovery mechanism is not easy: some projects might do it better than others and maybe on chains that don't even exist yet


#5 The case for renXMR

The RenVM is a network of nodes acting as an inter-blockchain bridge (like WBTC but permissionless and decentralized). A tokenized version of XMR on other chains (renXMR on Ethereum for example) would allow us to use the best DEXes out there, in a fully permissionless and unstoppable way. I am not trying to shill Ren here (or Monero on Ren channels) but I am long term hodler of both and I just think that these two should really have a baby... I don't understand why an atomic swaps solution was funded while we might have a better solution with a REN bridge. I believe the price of XMR remained abnormally low because of the trading happening on centralized exchanges (which is defying the purpose of Monero), but atomic swaps don't look like the best way to me (especially after seeing Komodo fail). Note that REN is not even fully decentralized yet (see roadmap) and it's not cheap, but it allows me to use my BTC on the best defi protocols (exchange on Uniswap, earning yield on Yearn, use BTC as collateral on Aave, change for DAI if I want stability, etc...). I would love to do the same with my XMR and use Bisq as a fiat ramp only.


Please don't treat this post as a newbie obsession, I read this forum for a long time (and especially this thread) but I just signed up recently. In a way, I feel lucky I wasn't there at the very beginning or I would have probably gone through KYC like many of you had to. Hopefully, this "virgin" status will save me the day even CBDC's are traded on permissionless/decentralized exchanges! Also XMR is still a bargain right now (especially in BTC) so I don't feel late at all

[Febo]

Zoomed out growth of Monero transactions. Average daily translations by quarter.  Q1 of 2021 update.

[cAPSLOCK]

Yeah, Monero's transaction growth is most certainly very bullish.  It's entirely organic and real use oriented. I find it very encouraging.

There are many other chains with good transaction volume, but some of them are just crazy.  ETH is going wild.  And I think it will be the chain that shows us first what happens when nodes have to be run in big data centers and end up centralizing completely.  With a history of rules being changed many times ETH will certainly be the defacto example of a chain of loosely federated consensus nodes, and known active leadership.  I have no real idea what will happen to the various ETH killers/clones.

The bitcoin forks are full of shit mostly in my opinion... but they are probably going to be used transactionally as bitcoin's base layer fees stay high, and before bitcoins layer 2 is still being built out and evolving.  Several other older alt projects will be used that way as well.  Litecoin, Doge, our old friend Dash etc.

But I think people underestimate the many forms Bitcoin will be used transactionally OFF chain.  CashApp, PayPal, etc will emerge as trusted transactional layers for everyday use (ie coffee purchases).  I bet a standard eventually emerges as those companies make agreements to settle between each other off chain as well.  I would not be surprised if they use Liquid.  I think it may become possible to send BTC from a PayPal wallet to a CashApp wallet without touching the base layer. It is still possible lighting overshadows them all, but the UX is still too shitty for it to really win that one today.  However, it will still come along over time.  And once lightning is really working well it might be the layer for power users as well as the settlement layer for the larger orgs.  But until then Liquid is the sleeper... I still think that's goona seem like it came from nowhere eventually.

Most folks will use bitcoin this way.  And they will not care that they are trading privacy for ease and cost.

In time all the computational use cases being built around Ethereum will eventually begin to move to layers on Bitcoin as the tech expands.  People will realize that trying to be the base monetary layer for dapps and running dapps too is having your cake and eating it.

But Bitcoin's privacy issues are really starting to show up as we have known they would.  I love listening to Matt ODell twist himself into gordian knots trying to advocate for best practices for BTC privacy. They have not yet realized that all their coinjoins and use of things like Whirlpool is just going to taint all their holdings.  We really need to see taproot and it's multisig advantages get built out.

SO... I think we are starting to see Monero's next renaissance kick off.  Folks are going to realize that it is currently best in class... and on some levels the only contender.

One concern I have... and I am not done processing it is the recent rise of BCASH like Monero evangelism.  We are seeing a LOT of anti-bitcoin, "Monero is what the whitepaper really meant" type of narrative forming.  And I am not gonna lie.  I hate it.  Not because I disagree with it entirely, but because I think it is ignorant and one dimensional thinking.  And I know there are folks here that might be on the side of the folks pushing that narrative currently.  But I have always seen Monero as a dark companion to bitcoin.  For example which chain would you rather want to see governments use?

On the other hand, which chain do you think governments would be more likely to use.

Interesting times gents!

300 before mid May.

[elrippos friend]

Yeah, Monero's transaction growth is most certainly very bullish.  It's entirely organic and real use oriented. I find it very encouraging.

There are many other chains with good transaction volume, but some of them are just crazy.  ETH is going wild.  And I think it will be the chain that shows us first what happens when nodes have to be run in big data centers and end up centralizing completely.  With a history of rules being changed many times ETH will certainly be the defacto example of a chain of loosely federated consensus nodes, and known active leadership.  I have no real idea what will happen to the various ETH killers/clones.

The bitcoin forks are full of shit mostly in my opinion... but they are probably going to be used transactionally as bitcoin's base layer fees stay high, and before bitcoins layer 2 is still being built out and evolving.  Several other older alt projects will be used that way as well.  Litecoin, Doge, our old friend Dash etc.

But I think people underestimate the many forms Bitcoin will be used transactionally OFF chain.  CashApp, PayPal, etc will emerge as trusted transactional layers for everyday use (ie coffee purchases).  I bet a standard eventually emerges as those companies make agreements to settle between each other off chain as well.  I would not be surprised if they use Liquid.  I think it may become possible to send BTC from a PayPal wallet to a CashApp wallet without touching the base layer. It is still possible lighting overshadows them all, but the UX is still too shitty for it to really win that one today.  However, it will still come along over time.  And once lightning is really working well it might be the layer for power users as well as the settlement layer for the larger orgs.  But until then Liquid is the sleeper... I still think that's goona seem like it came from nowhere eventually.

Most folks will use bitcoin this way.  And they will not care that they are trading privacy for ease and cost.

In time all the computational use cases being built around Ethereum will eventually begin to move to layers on Bitcoin as the tech expands.  People will realize that trying to be the base monetary layer for dapps and running dapps too is having your cake and eating it.

But Bitcoin's privacy issues are really starting to show up as we have known they would.  I love listening to Matt ODell twist himself into gordian knots trying to advocate for best practices for BTC privacy. They have not yet realized that all their coinjoins and use of things like Whirlpool is just going to taint all their holdings.  We really need to see taproot and it's multisig advantages get built out.

SO... I think we are starting to see Monero's next renaissance kick off.  Folks are going to realize that it is currently best in class... and on some levels the only contender.

One concern I have... and I am not done processing it is the recent rise of BCASH like Monero evangelism.  We are seeing a LOT of anti-bitcoin, "Monero is what the whitepaper really meant" type of narrative forming.  And I am not gonna lie.  I hate it.  Not because I disagree with it entirely, but because I think it is ignorant and one dimensional thinking.  And I know there are folks here that might be on the side of the folks pushing that narrative currently.  But I have always seen Monero as a dark companion to bitcoin.  For example which chain would you rather want to see governments use?

On the other hand, which chain do you think governments would be more likely to use.

Interesting times gents!

300 before mid May.

Just beeing kinky...
If we would take the transaction count as a price estimation for the future from April that would be ~€50.000,- x 7,66% = ~€3.800 

[Febo]

But I think people underestimate the many forms Bitcoin will be used transactionally OFF chain.  CashApp, PayPal, etc will emerge as trusted transactional layers for everyday use (ie coffee purchases).  I bet a standard eventually emerges as those companies make agreements to settle between each other off chain as well.  I would not be surprised if they use Liquid.  I think it may become possible to send BTC from a PayPal wallet to a CashApp wallet without touching the base layer. It is still possible lighting overshadows them all, but the UX is still too shitty for it to really win that one today.  However, it will still come along over time.  And once lightning is really working well it might be the layer for power users as well as the settlement layer for the larger orgs.  But until then Liquid is the sleeper... I still think that's goona seem like it came from nowhere eventually.

Yes this is exactly how it will happen. Paypall and co will just write, erase and move numbers in a database. And then will be a financial collapse. Much bigger then it was in 2008 and all those people holding "Bitcoin" there will end empty handed.

The bitcoin forks are full of shit mostly in my opinion...

Transaction wise yes. Litecoin x4 growth that happened few month ago was because of an onchain game. BCash had a x10 number of transactions growth in last couple of montsh because of some onchain "forum"  I forgot the link, but definitely have nothing to do with medium of exchange.  Monero transactions are pure medium of exchange. No mixers try to hide tracks and no games and stuff.

[cAPSLOCK]

But I think people underestimate the many forms Bitcoin will be used transactionally OFF chain.  CashApp, PayPal, etc will emerge as trusted transactional layers for everyday use (ie coffee purchases).  I bet a standard eventually emerges as those companies make agreements to settle between each other off chain as well.  I would not be surprised if they use Liquid.  I think it may become possible to send BTC from a PayPal wallet to a CashApp wallet without touching the base layer. It is still possible lighting overshadows them all, but the UX is still too shitty for it to really win that one today.  However, it will still come along over time.  And once lightning is really working well it might be the layer for power users as well as the settlement layer for the larger orgs.  But until then Liquid is the sleeper... I still think that's goona seem like it came from nowhere eventually.

Yes this is exactly how it will happen. Paypall and co will just write, erase and move numbers in a database. And then will be a financial collapse. Much bigger then it was in 2008 and all those people holding "Bitcoin" there will end empty handed.

Yup.  This is why I would not hold more than a trivial amount of value at any of these places in, frankly, any form.  In fact the only reason I would even buy bitcoin at one of these is to "support" them though at this point I do not think they need any support.  The system is up and running.

I have nothing against these orgs, and also believe that TRUSTED layers are a valid and useful evolution of technology.  They offer a set of tradeoffs, as long as we are aware of them, makes what they offer useful to some.

But some folks will likely get burned.  I think we are further along in your dystopic prediction than many would believe.

The bitcoin forks are full of shit mostly in my opinion...

Transaction wise yes. Litecoin x4 growth that happened few month ago was because of an onchain game. BCash had a x10 number of transactions growth in last couple of montsh because of some onchain "forum"  I forgot the link, but definitely have nothing to do with medium of exchange.  Monero transactions are pure medium of exchange. No mixers try to hide tracks and no games and stuff.

Yes.  And this detail is lost on most.  Though we are not the only chain with organic growth... our old arch-nemesis DASH comes to mind.

But in time (short time) ways to use BTC transactionally will become more and more appealing and eliminate the other chain's artificial utility.

But for BTC to replace Monero's utility a LOT of work will need to be done, if it is even possible (I think that it is dubious).

I think my 300 by mid may prediction is pretty bearish really.