[XMR] Monero Speculation

[smoothie]

Is it a sure sign of becoming insane when you start to enjoy the TrueCryptonaire postings? 

I'm asking myself this question as well since some time.
I've put my definite answer on hold, waiting for him to switch to whatever direction is opposite to mine. (so basically, when he becomes uber-ultra-bearish).
I speculate I'll enjoy less then.

This meta speculation is becoming too much for me to bear.

I recommend you use TrueCryptonaire as a form of entertainment and nothing more. I like the bipolar comedy but will never make decisions based on it.

Is TC the Proudhon of Monero? 

[dEBRUYNE]

FYI: An "Alt Cryptocurrencies Megathread" was made on r/bitcoinmarkets.

https://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/4a2c1b/alt_cryptocurrencies_megathread/

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think the real war will be fought around 0.004. That's the spot Monero started to get dumped last year. Once that has been accomplished we are looking for war zones from 2014 and that will be sweet IMO.
If the coin is able to set a support at ATH, only there are no limits and Monero is then in the new orbit.

[lolikop]

I think the real war will be fought around 0.004. That's the spot Monero started to get dumped last year. Once that has been accomplished we are looking for war zones from 2014 and that will be sweet IMO.
If the coin is able to set a support at ATH, only there are no limits and Monero is then in the new orbit.

I dont think so if we reach 0.004 it will easy go up to 0.006

[macsga]

I think the real war will be fought around 0.004. That's the spot Monero started to get dumped last year. Once that has been accomplished we are looking for war zones from 2014 and that will be sweet IMO.
If the coin is able to set a support at ATH, only there are no limits and Monero is then in the new orbit.

I dont think so if we reach 0.004 it will easy go up to 0.006

Historically speaking, 0.0043 is the major resistance towards... well... Moon. 

[hitchingAride]

I think the real war will be fought around 0.004. That's the spot Monero started to get dumped last year. Once that has been accomplished we are looking for war zones from 2014 and that will be sweet IMO.
If the coin is able to set a support at ATH, only there are no limits and Monero is then in the new orbit.

I dont think so if we reach 0.004 it will easy go up to 0.006

Historically speaking, 0.0043 is the major resistance towards... well... Moon. 

That was the peak befor the last major crash in xmr history hopefully history won't repeat itself this time.

[yelllowsin]

Decided to buy Monero today looks great as it is in its initial phase of development and has a lot of potential in my opinion as a store of value. Actually i have been diversifying my investments:

50% BITCOIN
20% ETHEREUM
15% LISK
15% MONERO

[vuduchyld]

I think the real war will be fought around 0.004. That's the spot Monero started to get dumped last year. Once that has been accomplished we are looking for war zones from 2014 and that will be sweet IMO.
If the coin is able to set a support at ATH, only there are no limits and Monero is then in the new orbit.

Just my two cents, but I'm not sure that the previous resistance/support lines are going to matter all that much moving forward.

I'm a bit concerned that the rising tide of ETH is currently lifting all altcoin boats.  This all seems fine right now and many long-time XMR hodlers (myself included) now have unrealized gains instead of unrealized losses as a result.

However, I believe that XMR may be somewhat reactive (but with a lower beta) to ETH.  As ETH brings new money into alts in general, XMR has probably benefitted.  I'd say this notion of blockchain-over-bitcoin-itself is probably correct, but I'm not really sure whether investments in the tokens of ETH, FCT, and some of the others is actually a great play long term.  If that becomes clear, I'd suspect XMR could be painted with a broad brush along with some alts that it doesn't resemble at all.  If it happens on the way up (and I suspect it might be), it will happen on the way down.

Wouldn't be shocking if XMR scoots up past .004, .0043, .006, or even to ATH.  But then it could easily tumble again back to .0018.

Longer term, I'm a raging bull, but I expect some SERIOUS and somewhat undue turbulence.

[TrueCryptonaire]

I think the real war will be fought around 0.004. That's the spot Monero started to get dumped last year. Once that has been accomplished we are looking for war zones from 2014 and that will be sweet IMO.
If the coin is able to set a support at ATH, only there are no limits and Monero is then in the new orbit.

Just my two cents, but I'm not sure that the previous resistance/support lines are going to matter all that much moving forward.

I'm a bit concerned that the rising tide of ETH is currently lifting all altcoin boats.  This all seems fine right now and many long-time XMR hodlers (myself included) now have unrealized gains instead of unrealized losses as a result.

However, I believe that XMR may be somewhat reactive (but with a lower beta) to ETH.  As ETH brings new money into alts in general, XMR has probably benefitted.  I'd say this notion of blockchain-over-bitcoin-itself is probably correct, but I'm not really sure whether investments in the tokens of ETH, FCT, and some of the others is actually a great play long term.  If that becomes clear, I'd suspect XMR could be painted with a broad brush along with some alts that it doesn't resemble at all.  If it happens on the way up (and I suspect it might be), it will happen on the way down.

Wouldn't be shocking if XMR scoots up past .004, .0043, .006, or even to ATH.  But then it could easily tumble again back to .0018.

Longer term, I'm a raging bull, but I expect some SERIOUS and somewhat undue turbulence.

First of all, very good post, thank you for sharing your thoughts.

I agree in the most parts, ETH has brought a lot of investment funds into XMR and I think it will bring in the futre as well (I guess Etherium community is now so wealthy over all that they do not need to sell their coins for too cheap to get the bread to the table).
I am expecting Monero to have similar moves or even bigger than Etherium have had.
People in Etherium community in my opinion should start to look for alternative hedges to their profits and make a rake out plan which partially they reinvest in Monero. Monero works and fits excellent as a store of value over long periods of time because it is the best anonymous coin out there and you want your wealth to be known only by yourself, not your neighbourgh or some thief.

Lowering block reward creates shortages of Moneros if the demand starts to pick up. Monero community probably will not be also fireselling their coins (my diversification plan is set already - I have set a few sell orders and waite as long as they get filled, none of them are below ATH because it doesn't make sense to sell under ATH IMO).
The second part of my diversification plan is to try to buy as many assets with Monero as possible (assets that I qualify to be decent enough to my risk profile, perhaps gold and silver coins?).

I do not think there will be much turbulence, to me the growth of Monero seems to be pretty steady and bigger turbulence requires some bear whale to move - miners cannot do it anymore unlike perhaps 1-2 years ago.

[americanpegasus]

If your Monero is sitting off an exchange, under your sole control, that is the hardest realized gain there is.  
  
It's holding ETH or USD that should worry you.

[LucyLovesCrypto]

Longer term, I'm a raging bull, but I expect some SERIOUS and somewhat undue turbulence.

A wise bull should always expect the unexpected.

[Hueristic]

...

Well I can tell you Uruguay has the most relaxed marijuana laws in the world.  Meaning they really have no criminalization for selling or cultivating. I don't mean little amounts I mean the sky is the limit.  

But what are the laws on site seizures? Can the ol us of a "request" the servers to be seized?

Also from what I understand, Tor has been compromised for almost a year and I don't know that much about I2P so would running the backend on it be secure?

would it be smarter to get a anon consortium of holders to start the site ( and have a few prominent members vouch for it) or actually incorporate in a country? There is an exchange on I2P but it is run bay an anon account with no vouchers so I know I would never move funds there. I have no clue about this stuff. The most information I've found so far is the town in england that created it's own tax haven in denmark if memory serves. I'll have to look it up again. I think it cost them a total of $150 to set it up!

Why in hell is no one selling XMR

I sold some at .0029, waiting for the dip to grab it back.

[iCEBREAKER]

Start with countries off-sides from the U.S. which aren't under international sanctions.  Iran, Venezuela, Cuba, UAE, Uruguay, Fiji, Seychelles, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Laos, Myanmar....

Thanks, I'll check these out when I get a chance. Out of that list I would think UAE or Venezuela would be the safest?

Those two are powder kegs with lit fuses.

You need non-confiscatory political stability and citizens that understand how to civilization.   Fiji/Seychelles are tiny, isolated paper statelets with backward/primitive natives.

That limits the list to Uruguay, with Laos and Myanmar tied for a very distant second place.

LMK if you need help down there.  I love Tannat! 

Thanks for pointing that out just checked.

Uruguay
http://www.state.gov/j/inl/rls/nrcrpt/2015/vol2/239113.htm

Uruguay is considering amending its legislation to allow asset seizure without a conviction. Uruguay ... continue working with covered non-financial entities, and improve the management of seized assets and funds

I'll check the others later.

Maybe host mirrored exchange frontend with backend residing on IP2?

Well I can tell you Uruguay has the most relaxed marijuana laws in the world.  Meaning they really have no criminalization for selling or cultivating. I don't mean little amounts I mean the sky is the limit.   

Uruguay never misses a chance to give Team America World Police the middle finger.

That, plus the high degree of local education/civilization, makes it an (or possibly the most) ideal jurisdiction for BTC/XMR start-ups.

So what if they're "considering" allowing asset forfeiture?  Any .gov can do that.  No need to make perfect the enemy of good enough.

[slapper]

I sold some at .0029, waiting for the dip to grab it back.

How many? Can you please give more details. I will also try to do the same.

[macsga]

If your Monero is sitting off an exchange, under your sole control, that is the hardest realized gain there is.  
  
It's holding ETH or USD that should worry you.

At this very moment, I wouldn't touch neither the first, nor the later. ETH chart looks extremely scary at the moment... 

[Dotto]

Without heavy turbulence you can´t get massive price upswings (or downswings)

[macsga]

Without heavy turbulence you can´t get massive price upswings (or downswings)

Not my style of playing. On the other hand, maybe that's why I rarely won from trading...

[Hueristic]

Without heavy turbulence you can´t get massive price upswings (or downswings)

Not my style of playing. On the other hand, maybe that's why I rarely won from trading...

You gotta be a pilot fish.

[macsga]

Without heavy turbulence you can´t get massive price upswings (or downswings)

Not my style of playing. On the other hand, maybe that's why I rarely won from trading...

You gotta be a pilot fish.

Indeed; I've known this since forever. I tend to have the same musings with vuduchyld above; that certain funds from ETH are being used as transplant blood towards other assets (XMR is certainly one of them). I anxiously expect tomorrow though... things could evolve differently than everybody thinks.

[Dotto]

Without heavy turbulence you can´t get massive price upswings (or downswings)

Not my style of playing. On the other hand, maybe that's why I rarely won from trading...

You gotta be a pilot fish.

Indeed; I've known this since forever. I tend to have the same musings with vuduchyld above; that certain funds from ETH are being used as transplant blood towards other assets (XMR is certainly one of them). I anxiously expect tomorrow though... things could evolve differently than everybody thinks.

You can play it by no playing at all, however the turbulence will be on the background devastating some structures and creating new ones, like in a magic act.

I see what you expect for tomorrow, sell the BFX news, pop the bubble and short the hell of. But could be that some whales anticipating this, squeeze the hell of the shorters as well... whatever the output, the turbulence is almost guaranteed